The world this week June 23 - June 28


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The world this week June 23 - June 28

  1. 1. The World This Week June 23 – Jun 28, 2014
  2. 2. Equity View: The markets continue to rise in anticipation of a positive budget and that the government would work hard to remove infrastructural bottlenecks. CII Quarterly Business sentiment index which indicates the business confidence is positive above 50 and in Q1 FY15 this was 53.5. In the last few months, market sentiments have improved; the car sales have risen in last month. Inflation has been flattish with a recent slight increase but nothing serious to interpret out of the same. Government has been working to resolve issues related to the environment ministry, power projects and their pricing, roads, ports, etc. Thus there are hopes of big announcements in the budget. There are also discussions that FDI could be allowed in Defence and Railways. This is an incremental positive for companies linked to these spaces. Monsoon in the month of June has been 40% below normal thus there are concerns over agricultural production this year. However as per the recent forecasts, the rainfall post 7th July would cover up for the deficit seen. The fact is that the month of June contributes only 20-25% to the overall rainfall received during monsoon in India thus the concerns to the agricultural production are not grave as of now. The impact of rainfall on the agricultural production would be known after the statistics released this month. Agricultural contribution to the overall GDP is less than 15% thus even in situation of severe drought the GDP figures would not be completely changed from the forecasted figures though the impact would be there. Q1 earnings should start from 11th July. We expect strong earnings from IT companies with 3-4% volume growth. We continue to like select IT and Pharma stocks as they are expected to deliver strong earnings growth. With more reform measures being announced, we would be positive on Banking – both public and private, Oil and Gas companies, esp. the downstream companies and select infrastructure companies. The railway passenger fares have been hiked after 11 years and we expect more such price hikes in the near future. A big movement could be an increase in kerosene prices which has not happened in the last 12 years. There could be more strong steps to improve fiscal deficit whose target for FY15 is 4.1%. We expect the disinvestment programme to be helpful in this with around 60,000 Crores worth of government shares being sold this fiscal (the highest in a long past). Thus we remain positive on the Indian equity markets.
  3. 3. News: DOMESTIC MACRO:  According to RBI’s financial stability report, India’s economic growth, inflation, and banks’ asset quality are still concerns.  Government imposes a minimum export price (MEP) of $450 per tonne on potatoes to augment domestic supply of the vegetable.  Government extends excise duty concession for the automobile and consumer durables sectors by six months to December 31; also mulls bringing back excise duty in the branded garments category in the coming budget.  According to a CARE Ratings report, Indian retail asset securitization market volumes decreased marginally by around 6% to Rs 28,300 cr in FY14 as against Rs 30,300 cr in FY13.  RBI directs banks to give data about willful defaulters every month or more frequently to the credit information companies from the beginning of 2015. GLOBAL MACRO EURO  UK’s annual GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2014 was revised down to 3% according to the final estimate from 3.1% estimated earlier.  Euro zone economic sentiment slumped to 102 in June from a revised 102.6 in May United States  US personal income rose 0.4% in May, after gaining 0.3% in April, while personal spending rose 0.2% last month, compared with a flat reading April.  US Services PMI hit 61.2 in June, the highest reading since the survey began in October 2009, compared with May's final reading of 58.1; composite PMI hit 61.1 in June, a record high, versus 58.4 in May China  China's June official PMI seen at a six-month high at 50.8 in May.
  4. 4. Indices: Date Sensex Midcap Auto Bankex CD CG FMCG HC IT Metals O&G Power Realty Teck 23/06/14 25,031 9,018 14,987 17,273 8,413 15,688 6,564 10,869 9,006 13,129 11,272 2,203 2,015 5,106 24/06/14 25,369 9,161 15,146 17,535 8,618 15,883 6,643 10,860 9,034 13,273 11,517 2,248 2,079 5,123 25/06/14 25,314 9,209 15,260 17,460 8,693 15,772 6,618 10,951 9,047 13,262 11,426 2,256 2,097 5,123 26/06/14 25,063 9,181 15,280 17,262 8,753 15,911 6,594 10,987 9,049 13,110 10,982 2,238 2,039 5,131 27/06/14 25,100 9,205 15,198 17,182 8,821 15,854 6,626 11,260 9,271 12,940 10,990 2,254 2,056 5,222 0.27% 2.07% 1.41% -0.53% 4.85% 1.06% 0.95% 3.59% 2.94% -1.44% -2.50% 2.29% 2.01% 2.28% Commodities and Currency: Date USD GBP EURO YEN Crude (Rs. per BBL) Gold (Rs. Per 10gms) 23/06/2014 60.1927 102.5623 81.9065 59.05 6921 28250 24/06/2014 60.105 102.3228 81.752 58.94 6869 28316 25/06/2014 60.2785 102.2806 82.0475 59.15 6880 28193 26/06/2014 60.1618 102.2329 82.044 59.12 6872 28096 27/06/2014 60.0958 102.3972 81.882 59.27 6811 28086 0.16% Rupee Appreciated 0.16% Rupee Appreciated 0.03% Rupee Appreciated -0.37% Rupee Depreciated -1.59% -0.58% Debt: Tenor Gilt Yield in % (Friday) Change in bps (Week) 1-Year 8.50 13 2-Year 8.36 7 5-Year 8.62 4 10-Year 8.75 3
  5. 5. Varun Goel Jharna Agarwal Nupur Gupta Ridhdhi Chheda Disclaimer The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth (a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above- mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations. Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 . (Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034) SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512”