Germanydraft

What Does Germany’s Demographic Future Look Like and What is Being
Done to Help?
Karrie DuBois
ECP3113 Spring 2014

2
Introductionto the German Population
When a woman is going about her day as normal, she usually does not think about
how many children she will have over her lifetime, when she will have children, or if she
will ever even have children. A woman probably does not think about the birth to death
ratio in her region or country—or whether that ratio is positive or negative. In some
countries, this lack of information can cause a huge problem without many people
recognizing the repercussions until it is too late. This type of problem is going on in
Germany right now. The decline in the fertility rate along with an aging population has
raised a few concerns for the demographic future in Germany. It has also sparked interest
in the reasons why fertility remains low despite the constant efforts by the government to
increase the dismal fertility rate. Is it money related, personality related, or culturally
related—or is the reason beyond the scope of experimenting? That is what I want to figure
out and hypothesize about.
Over the last 40 years, the German fertility rate has declined and remained at a
severe low—having only 2 children replace every 3 adults. “Since 1972, Germany has not
seen a single year where the number of newborns exceeded the number of deaths.”1
With this in mind, what does Germany’s demographic future look like, what is being done
to help? Is it working? Some experts say that the point-of-no-return has already passed and
that population decline over the next few decades is inevitable—the momentum is already
in place. The German government has released a demographic strategy, although these
same experts say that the strategy adds nothing to the incentives already in place. Other
1 (Klingholtz 2009)

3
experts are a bit more optimistic and say that Germany’s fertility rate will rise as a result of
government incentives. Through research, I will delve into this problem—first explaining
the history of the population problem, then explaining the incentives in place to help
reverse this problem, and lastly, analyze why the incentives are doing absolutely nothing to
help reverse the trend of a low fertility rate.
The Decline: Germany has a Problem
Germany has had a long history of fertility variances and, especially in recent years,
has faced several difficult events that could have had an impact on the fertility rate. The
reunification and the collapse of Communism in East Germany was certainly a defining
moment in history in regards to fertility and family planning. After reunification, East
German citizens went through a huge cultural demographic shock and a received a sense of
“individualization” and “self-actualization”.2
The people of East Germany went from living a specific life style to having to find
jobs in the new reunified Germany. In 1992, two years after reunification, the total fertility
rate (TFR) was only 0.8—one of the lowest ever recorded. Many researchers wondered
how and when fertility would ever recover.3 Currently, the East and West TFRs are about
the same at 1.4. An important lesson one could derive from the miraculous resurgence of
2 (Goldstein and Kreyenfeld 2011)
3 Ibid

4
the East German fertility rate is that economic factors do not always affect the TFR of a
country or region. 4
The graph below5 shows the differences in fertility rates between East and West
Germany before and after the collapse of communism in East Germany. Before the collapse,
East Germany was suffering a steady decline in the TFR as communism was becoming less
and less tolerable. Once the wall fell, East Germans were forced to find work or starve—as
the dip on the graph shows. Family planning was most likely last on East Germans’ list as
they coped with the new life as a unified country.
The TFR in East Germany used to be hugely above that of West Germany where
most people had jobs and had to work for their belongings without much help from the
government. Reunification slowly balanced out the TFRs in each region and now, the two
4 (Goldstein and Kreyenfeld 2011)
5 Ibid

5
are about the same. The threat of the TFR being well below the replacement level—and the
realization that it will not improve any time soon—scares many government officials and
those that wish to keep the German culture alive as well as the German workforce alive.
Even years after German Reunification, the fertility rate is a huge issue that will not
seem to disappear or reverse. In 2011,
Germany's Federal Statistical Officedetermined that the country has the smallest
percentage of children of all European countries. Over the last decade, the number
of Germans under the age of 18 has declined by 2.1 million. In terms of percentages,
this population segment fell from18.8 percent in 2000 to only 16.5 percent in 2010.
Roderich Egeler, the organization's president, warns: "This downward trend will
continue."6
In 2012, the German Statistical Office published a report that stated three different
assumptions of what Germany’s demographic future could look like. The first assumption
says that the current trend of 1.4 TFR will remain and the average age of a woman giving
birth will rise by 1.6 years. The second assumption says that the TFR will rise to 1.6 though
2025 and average birth age (the age at which a woman gives birth) will rise by 1.1. The TFR
will then remain constant through 2060. The last option assumes that the TFR will
decrease to 1.2 through 2060 and the average birth age will rise 2.0 years. All of these
assumptions or models project a low fertility rate as well as long term decrease in
population.7 Notice also that the average age of giving birth also rises with time. Both the
low TFR and the higher birth age together are dangerous for a country’s future population.
6 (Spiegel Staff 2011)
7 (Federal Statistical Office 2009)

6
The young people in Germany are decreasing, the average birth age is increasing,
and the TFR will stay the same—or decrease/increase slightly. Add these ingredients to the
aging population and the finished product will be chaos.
Incentives
With the threat of a diminishing population, Germany has instituted several direct
and indirect incentives for the purpose of raising the total fertility rate. The government
pays over $265 billion in family subsidies8 that are meant to encourage childbearing. With
a TFR of only 1.4 and a population of about 80.5 million people (in 2012) the projected
population is projected to drop by up to 19% by 2060.9 These incentives have been in place
for several years, yet the TFR has not changed, nor is it projected to in the future. These
incentives include public childcare, monthly payments to families with children, extended
work leave for parents, guaranteed job placement for those who take parental leave, and
immigration reform.
Social and cultural factors play a huge role in determining whether or not a woman
or household will have children. In Germany, there is a word “Rabenmutter” or “raven
mother”. It is a derogatory reference to women that choose work over family—or choose to
have a job and a family.10 In Germany, childcare is provided by the government, which is
considered an incentive for women who want to work but may not have children for fear of
looking like a bad mother—or Rabenmutter. The culture in Germany wants women to
8 (Daley and Kulish 2013)
9 Ibid
10 (Evans 2011)

7
choose work or family, but not both. This could have a huge impact on how many children a
German woman decides to have in her lifetime. If she wishes to further her career, the
German culture will not allow her to have children without some form of ridicule or
judgment. With the popular German Chancellor being a female and the gender roles slowly
diminishing in Germany, it could be deduced that more and more females want to enter the
workforce and do not want to have children.
The public childcare is, of course, free to citizens; however, the wait period for
placement into one of these facilities can take several years. “Life [in Germany] is
complicated by a shortage of childcare facilities, especially in the West, and the fact that
most German schools run only to noon or slightly later. The government is now in the
process of increasing the number of full-day schools.”11 Because most of the schools in
Germany are only open until noon or slightly after, it creates a burden on single parents or
traditional parents, if both of them work. If the government can, in fact, open schools that
are open later, his incentive could work.
Government officials in Germany recognize that work is a huge hindrance to
childbearing. That is why the government has mandated several initiatives to help those
that work also be able to have a family. They mandate that employers offer flexible work
hours, encourage employers to offer part-time work with full benefits, as well as
government instructed maternity leave.12 The mother has six weeks paid maternity leave
before the child is due as well as eight weeks after. The government subsidizes this paid
leave so that not all the burden is on the business at which the mother is employed.13
11 (Moeller, et al. 2013)
12 Ibid
13 Ibid

8
After the combined 14 weeks of paid leave, both parents have the option to stay at
home and care for their child during the first 3 years.14 Twelve months of parent leave can
be taken before he child’s eighth birthday. After the “Elternzeit” or parent leave, the parent
is guaranteed an equivalent position at the firm which they had left. Parents can be
reimbursed up to 67% of the net income missed by taking “Elternzeit” depending on
whether or not the family is low-income.15
Another form of direct payment is the Kindergeld program, which translates to
children allowance. This allowance can range anywhere from 184 Euros to 215 euros per
child per month depending on the number of children. Each family receives the same
amount of allowance regardless of income—the amount is solely based on the amount of
children a family has. The money is directly deposited into a bank account making it easily
accessible. The benefits last until the child’s eighteenth birthday.16
These incentives were designed mainly to increase childbearing; although, the
fertility rate is not Germany’s only population problem. The country also needs a larger net
migration rate. The migration rate currently positive and is projected to remain so;
however, it is not positive enough to counteract the low fertility rate. Immigration is the
quickest way for a country to increase population and sustainability because the country
does not have to wait until the children of the period are old enough to reproduce. Until
recent years, the German government had made it very difficult for people to become
citizens. There has always been a sense of nationalism in Germany that is unmatched by
most countries. Once Germany recognized that population will soon fall and the labor force
14 (Moeller, et al. 2013)
15 Ibid
16 (Sozial Leistungen 2014)

9
will soon diminish, it changed the way of thinking about immigration and went from an
anti-immigration land to quite the opposite.
In the 1950s and 1960s, Germany granted “Gastarbeit” or guest work pass
agreements with several countries in order to fill in the necessary labor as a result of a
shortage.17 These passes allowed foreigners to work in Germany for a few years and then
go back to their original country. The Turkish and former Yugoslavians were a huge
proportion of workers that took this opportunity and they never ended up leaving
Germany.18 Since then, the German people have had a negative view of immigration and
foreigners in general. For fear that the social security programs will soon collapse from the
aging population and lack of young citizens paying into it, Germany passed immigration
policy in 2000 and revised policy in 2005.
After German policy makers fully realized that Germany had turned into an immigration
country,the new German naturalization law effectiveas of 2000 added the jus soli principle
to the former Reichs-und Staatsangehörigkeitsrecht,whichuntil then had only granted
citizenship on the ius sanguinis basis to children born to a German parent. Since then,
ascension to citizenship has been an administratively complicated but possible venture for
foreigners.19
To those Turks and former Yugoslavs that wanted citizenship but could not receive it, this
was great news. In 2002, a study was done to see how many foreigners living in Germany
were interested in becoming a citizen now that the process was attainable. The study
showed that 58.1% of Turks and 54.3% of former Yugoslavs were interested in becoming
German Citizens; while foreign inhabitants of German from other European Union
17 (Kahanec and Tosun n.d.)
18 Ibid
19 Ibid

10
Countries were not as interested in becoming citizens.20 The most likely reason other EU
foreigners were not very interested in becoming a German Citizen is probably because it is
somewhat simple to go back and forth between EU countries, so it is simple to remain
under their current national identity—and Germany does not allow for more than one
citizenship.
By easing immigration policy, Germany can only grow. Hostility towards foreigners
exists everywhere, but as it becomes more common, those tensions tend to decrease. It
could solve the problem of low fertility it can be seen that Germany is making an effort to
make it easier to become a citizen as shown by the most recent immigration policy change
in 2005. TFR is not projected to increase, so Germany’s only option to solve this problem is
by opening up its borders to those who wish to live there and have children there. Germany
just started allowing Bulgarians and
Romanians to enter Germany as immigrants
through the EU. The migration rate has been
positive for the last few years, as the table21
shows and migration is projected to increase.
These incentives and policy changes
were put into place in fear that the future of
Germany would cease to be powerful. Whether
or not these incentives have had any effect on the fertility rate or net migration rate is up
for speculation. The short answer is no, these incentives have not had any impact on
fertility. Since 1997, the fertility rate in Germany has remained at a relatively constant rate
20 (Kahanec and Tosun n.d.)
21 (Statistisches Bundesamt 2012)

11
of about 1.36 births per woman. The graph below22shows the total births (in thousands) in
Germany from 1945 until around 2010. It is also important to look at the huge amount of
Germans born in the 1960’s
who will soon be at
retirement age. The women
born in this era are also no
longer having children. This is
the source of much worry to
German officials and citizens.
The big question is “Who will
pay for the ‘baby boomers’’
retirement?”
Analysis:Why Are These Incentives Not Working?
It has been established that the incentives listed and described in this paper are not
working to increase the fertility rates among women. For example, the graph below23
shows the increase in Euros spent on the parental leave program along with the births in
thousands per year. While the spending increases, the births have actually fallen. The
question I wish to analyze is “why?” Are Germans still caught up on reunification? Is it the
economy? Is it changing gender roles? What is keeping the fertility rate below 1.4?
22 (Statistisches Bundesamt 2012)

12
A German news source,
Der Spiegel, wrote a special
report on this exact topic. They
analyzed the question, “Why
wont Germans have more
babies?” They discussed the
childcare setting in Germany
and how every child is entitled
to day care; however, there is
not enough supply to meet quantity demanded by parents. The shortage and the fact that
the daycares are only open until noon, the article says, are a huge reason for the decrease in
the number of children.24
“Though the childcare shortage is one of the major factors behind Germany's
shrinking number of children, it doesn't explain everything.” 25 The article goes on to talk
about how many mothers are not treated well at their jobs. Despite the efforts and
suggestions by the government to encourage employers to encourage childbearing, many
employers see their workers becoming pregnant and see it as a productivity loss. One
mother said that “her boss said: ‘The good ones always get pregnant.’”26 The environment
in which some mothers work is not always friendly. When an employer is forced to promise
compensation and an equal job position when a mother returns, it could be seen as a huge
25 Ibid
26 Ibid

13
hindrance to productivity and profits—so bosses are not always happy for their workers
when they announce the big news.
Another issue the German article brings up is that having a child, despite the
benefits from the government, is still seen as a huge monetary cost. Even after going
through the parental leave program as well as the monthly stipend, some “can’t even
ponder the idea of having more children because ‘money is always tight.’”27 Nevertheless,
the programs look great from the outside, but on the inside, they have some serious
problems. Many government officials have noticed that bribing people with money is not
enough for the German people to reproduce.
When hypothesizing, I feel that the confusion of mothers that work is the primary
reason for a low fertility rate. Former German Family Affairs Minister, Kristina Schröder
said, “’When a woman focuses completely on her children, she is the picture of the perfect
housewife. But if she wants to keep working full time, she is seen as being selfish.’ And
whenever a woman tries to combine the two, Schröder adds, ‘some call her a bad mother
and others call her a latte macchiato mother.’”28 I believe she has it right. When a
prospective mother sees women being ridiculed for working and not being a mother and at
the same time sees other women being ridiculed for wanting a family and a work life, it can
be very complicating. The easier option is to just not have children—to advance their work
career. In order to increase the number of women having children, Germany and its citizens
must create an environment where either choice is accepted, because the environment now
is not conducive to childbearing.
28 Ibid

14
Conclusion
There is no doubt that Germany has a problem. The fertility rate is low and will not
increase any time soon. With a TFR of only 1.4, Germany could lose up to half of its
population over the next century. Despite the efforts of the government, with programs
such as Kindergeld, Elternzeit, and public childcare, Germans are not responding to these
attempts to make childbearing cheaper. This has led to the government asking the
question, “What else can we do?”
When analyzing Germany’s population problem, I have come to the following
conclusion. The programs for families are great in theory but lack organization and
fullness. The work and family environment/culture is not conducive to having children.
These concepts along with others, I’m sure, can somewhat explain what a typical family in
Germany goes though when deciding whether or not to have children. If a mother weighs
the options of having a baby with a boss that does not approve and takes out his
frustrations on the mothers job, or not having a baby and being seen as someone who does
not appreciate the traditional family, the prospective mother would most likely become
very confused and choose the easier option to not have a child. The easier option to help
with the fertility problem is to ease up on immigration policy. It could not only help raise
the TFR, it could also bring economic prosperity to Germany.

15
Bibliography
1. Daley, Suzanne, and Nicholas Kulish. Germany Fights Population Drop. August 14, 2013.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/14/world/europe/germany-fights-population-
drop.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 (accessed March 14, 2014).
2. Evans, Stephen. BBC Is the German insult 'Raven mothers' holding back women at work?
March 11, 2011. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12703897 (accessed March 12,
2014).
3. Federal Statistical Office. Germany's Population by 2060: Results of the 12th coordinated
population projection. Demographic Modelling, Federal Statistical Office, Wiesbaden:
Federal Statistical Office, 2009.
4. Goldstein, Joshua R, and Michaela Kreyenfeld. "Has East Germany Overtaken West
Germany? Recent Trends in Order‐Specific Fertility." Population and Development Review
37, no. 3 (2011): 453-472.
5. Kahanec, Martin, and Mehmet Serkan Tosun. "Political Economy of Immigration in
Germany: Attitudes and Citizenship Aspirations." International Migration Review 43, no. 2:
263-291.
6. Klingholtz, Reiner. "Europe’s Real Demographic Challenge." Policy Review (Hoover
Institution) 157 (November 2009): 61-70.
7. Moeller, Jack, Winnifred R Adolph, Gisela Hoecherl-Alden, Simone Berger, and Thorsten
Huth. Deutsch heute. Boston, MA: Heinle Cengage, 2013.
8. Sozial Leistungen. Kindergeld. 2014. http://www.sozialleistungen.info/kindergeld/
(accessed March 14, 2014).
9. Spiegel Staff. A Land Without Children: Why Won't Germans Have More Babies? August 12,
2011. http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/a-land-without-children-why-won-t-
germans-have-more-babies-a-779741.html (accessed March 15, 2014).
10. Statistisches Bundesamt. Births in Germany. Wiesbaden, 2012.
11. Statistisches Bundesamt. Migration. Wiesbaden, 2012.
12. World Population Statistics. Germany Population 2013. 2013.
http://www.worldpopulationstatistics.com/germany-population-2013/ (accessed March
12, 2014).

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