A perspective on sampling in india


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A perspective on sampling practices - matching marketer's needs to the changing Indian market scenario and growth of agglomerates and 1 million+ population towns, case for town class for quotas as opposed to actual towns

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A perspective on sampling in india

  1. 1. Perspective on Market Research Study Sampling in India Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 1
  2. 2. India is a really big country for any researcher… Let me Introduce India to you… Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 2
  3. 3. Map Visual: http://www.economist.com/content/indian-summary Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 3
  4. 4. 35 States & UTs 640 districts 7,935+ towns 640,867+ villages 1.2billion individuals 247million households Map Visual: http://www.economist.com/content/indian-summary Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 4
  5. 5. Ideally, how many homogenous cells the country (universe) should be divided in to for capturing the diversity (sampling & weighting) and fully understand it (infer)? As a researcher my three key challenges been: - To know the actual size of the universe, and size of the cell and the number of members in the final homogenous cell - To draw appropriate random sample from that cell - To project/correct the findings back to the population - Then, infer it with/without enough local knowledge Map Visual: http://www.economist.com/content/indian-summary Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 5
  6. 6. Can be any number, but a valid argument can be: 33,600 cells of Urban India = 35S/UT * 8TC * 5SEC * 6Age * 2Gender * 2Language 37,800 Cells of Rural India = 35S/UT * 3VC * 3DT * 5SEC * 6Age * 2Gender * 2Language But realistically, that’s utopian and may be unnecessary… Map Visual: http://www.economist.com/content/indian-summary Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 6
  7. 7. Some more points to ponder  Most of the mass product and service marketers (who are research savvy) have a pan India reach – a distribution network that reaches out to many towns and villages, if not complete India More than 50% business of these marketers’ business probably come from beyond the top 8 to 10 cities  Consumption growths are also higher on cities beyond the top 8 to 10 cities   All mindshare creation effort (advertising/promotion) by mass marketers today is pan India (spends on geo-locations is possible only if advertiser is very heavy on print, else TV is all pan India)  Then, why are regular market research studies (tracking) limited to just 8 to 10 cities for most of the product/service categories? Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 7
  8. 8. Some of the sampling practices  Big budget nation representative studies NSSO: 88 Geographical Regions – Stratified random Sampling  NCAER (CMCR): Stratified Random Sampling  IRS: Probability proportionate to size (PPA) - Sample allocated proportionate to 12 years+ Universe of a geographic unit  National Family Health Survey   Regular Market Research/ Smaller studies/ Monthly Tracking Judgmental, Quota Sampling by Target Group  Sometimes post survey correction weighting on 1 or 2 variables with universe estimates from IRS  Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 8
  9. 9. Big Question 1: What is better, natural (gen. pop.) proportion of users & intenders vs. TG wise quotas? Quota sampling sessions in schools always start with “it is not a advisable method, avoid as much as you can? Why do we need quota… no reason other than to have “an analyzable base for a segment”? Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 9
  10. 10. Big Question 2: Why 100 to 200 sample per town? How can 100 sample be representative for a 3million+ population town? Even after collecting 200 odd sample with what confidence one will analyze the data at an Individual town level to take inferences, especially in India where there is a lot of diversity? Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 10
  11. 11. Is there a more practical way of dividing India? Before that let’s understand India a little more… Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 11
  12. 12. Urbanization in India  Percentage of urban population is good enough indicator for clubbing of towns together as high level homogenous groups with varied access to infrastructure, social development and consumerism  However all 100,000+ population towns can’t be similar Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 12
  13. 13. Let’s not forget about the growth of 1million+ towns  As per 2011 census there are 47 towns# (1 million+ population towns) accounting for 116 million population accounting for around 30% of all Indian Urban population Juxt for whoever interested (Public) # Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_populous_cities_in_India 13
  14. 14. Emerging agglomerates of India  The emergence of small agglomerates such as these is changing the urban setting in respect of rural access to services. Goods and service facilities are coming nearer to the consumer, and services of new kinds are emerging, inducing a diversification of jobs, notably in construction, food supply and processing, and groceries. Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 14
  15. 15. Territorial network is bringing urban agglomerations closer to towns  In some much-urbanized regions, such as Tamil Nadu, the average maximum distance to the nearest city is already only 6 km and will drop to 5.6 km in 2011. For 2011, we can expect 12.3 km for Madhya Pradesh (13.7 km in 2001), 9.2 km for Gujarat (10.2 km in 2001), and 8.1 km for Andhra Pradesh (8.8 km in 2001). Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 15
  16. 16. Is town class a substitute to town selection for smaller and regular studies? Possibly yes… but not the way Indian Census divides it… various studies provide us enough clue for right course of action. Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 16
  17. 17. Way forward for typical small sample study  Smaller studies can still remained urban focused yet bring in relatively better national representation with even 2000 odd sample, if a at a segment level roughly 377 (95% confidence level & 5% error margin) sample is collected then we can collect sample for 6 town classes instead of 6 to 8 towns  We must not mix up all the 1,000,000 population towns as one and try to group them in 3 sub-groups  30 lakh+ (3mn+) (Top 10 Towns, if required they should be studied individually)  10lakh to 30lakh (1 to 3million) (37 more towns)  5lakh to 10lakh (0.5 to 1 million) (45 more towns)  1 to 5 lakh towns (404 more towns)  Below 1lakh population towns (7531 more towns) Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 17
  18. 18. An easier, practical and manageable way for national representative sampling would be: 2,880 cells of Urban India = 4Z * 6TC * 5SEC * 6Age * 2Gender * 2Language 1,440 Cells of Rural India = 4Z * 3VC * 5SEC * 6Age * 2Gender * 2Language Or depending on objective & budget we can reduce the no. of cells further… Map Visual: http://www.economist.com/content/indian-summary Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 18
  19. 19. Thank you www.juxtconsult.com www.getcounted.net 19