2. PurposePurpose
Church VisionChurch Vision
To bring the Kingdom of God to our community/cityTo bring the Kingdom of God to our community/city
PurposePurpose
To determine a course of action toward achieving ourTo determine a course of action toward achieving our
vision through analysis of the giving and attendancevision through analysis of the giving and attendance
datadata
3. Findings/AgendaFindings/Agenda
Historical DataHistorical Data
2012 was good year for attendance2012 was good year for attendance
2012 showed increased giving2012 showed increased giving
Driving ForcesDriving Forces
Temperature drives attendanceTemperature drives attendance
To a lesser extent rain also drives attendanceTo a lesser extent rain also drives attendance
Attendance drives givingAttendance drives giving
Wellbeing drives givingWellbeing drives giving
Yearly TrendsYearly Trends
Attendance and giving have consistent peaks and valleysAttendance and giving have consistent peaks and valleys
Attendance becomes more consistent as the yearAttendance becomes more consistent as the year
progressesprogresses
4. Historical DataHistorical Data
Data UsedData Used
Historical attendance and giving data from JanuaryHistorical attendance and giving data from January
2006 to December 2012 was used2006 to December 2012 was used
Data ScrubbedData Scrubbed
Statistical outliers were removedStatistical outliers were removed
This data was used to determine trendsThis data was used to determine trends
See plots on next few chartsSee plots on next few charts
Data CombinedData Combined
A third measure is the giving per personA third measure is the giving per person
5. Descriptive StatisticsDescriptive Statistics
AttendanceAttendance
Average: 204 (was 202)Average: 204 (was 202)
Top/Bottom: 71 (1/1/2006) / 407 (3/23/2008)Top/Bottom: 71 (1/1/2006) / 407 (3/23/2008)
Giving (General Fund only)Giving (General Fund only)
Average: $5,187.36 (was $Average: $5,187.36 (was $4,986.894,986.89))
Top/Bottom: $635.00 (7/25/2010) / $67,376.30 (5/16/2010)Top/Bottom: $635.00 (7/25/2010) / $67,376.30 (5/16/2010)
Giving per PersonGiving per Person
Average: $25.78 (was $25.29)Average: $25.78 (was $25.29)
Top/Bottom: $4.29 to $74.98Top/Bottom: $4.29 to $74.98
11. Historical DataHistorical Data
SummarySummary
In both attendance and giving, 2006 was a year of growthIn both attendance and giving, 2006 was a year of growth
for Emmausfor Emmaus
After 2006:After 2006:
Attendance reached a peak, declined for a few years, andAttendance reached a peak, declined for a few years, and
showed growth again in 2012showed growth again in 2012
Giving per person appears to be going upGiving per person appears to be going up
Giving is increasingly growingGiving is increasingly growing
Conclusion:Conclusion:
Attendance trends might be turning aroundAttendance trends might be turning around
Giving trends are looking goodGiving trends are looking good
12. Driving ForcesDriving Forces
StatisticsStatistics
I added historical weather, economic, and wellbeing data to the givingI added historical weather, economic, and wellbeing data to the giving
and attendance data and checked for statistically significantand attendance data and checked for statistically significant
correlationcorrelation
Data UsedData Used
WeatherWeather
Maximum temperature (°F)Maximum temperature (°F)
Minimum temperature (°F)Minimum temperature (°F)
Precipitation (in)Precipitation (in)
Wind (mph)Wind (mph)
EconomyEconomy
S&P 500 Friday Closing IndexS&P 500 Friday Closing Index
WellbeingWellbeing
CDC Flu Reporting Data (%)CDC Flu Reporting Data (%)
15. Correlation SummaryCorrelation Summary
Attendance is negatively correlated to temperatureAttendance is negatively correlated to temperature
Meaning: As temperature goes up attendance goes downMeaning: As temperature goes up attendance goes down
Sensitivity: Every 3°F hotter we lose 1 personSensitivity: Every 3°F hotter we lose 1 person
Giving is positively correlated to attendanceGiving is positively correlated to attendance
Meaning: As attendance goes up so does givingMeaning: As attendance goes up so does giving
Sensitivity: Every additional person brings $9.66 (was $11.72)Sensitivity: Every additional person brings $9.66 (was $11.72)
ConclusionConclusion
Combining the two correlations shows us that giving isCombining the two correlations shows us that giving is
negatively correlated to temperaturenegatively correlated to temperature
Meaning: As temperature goes up giving goes downMeaning: As temperature goes up giving goes down
Sensitivity: For every 3°F giving is down $9.66Sensitivity: For every 3°F giving is down $9.66
To a lesser extent: Giving is positively correlated to wellbeingTo a lesser extent: Giving is positively correlated to wellbeing
Meaning: As wellbeing goes down so does givingMeaning: As wellbeing goes down so does giving
16. Yearly TrendsYearly Trends
I took the total historical data and plotted it year toI took the total historical data and plotted it year to
year to see look for seasonal trendsyear to see look for seasonal trends
From these trends I ‘built’ a typical year with aFrom these trends I ‘built’ a typical year with a
statistical variation about its meanstatistical variation about its mean
21. Year-to-Year SummaryYear-to-Year Summary
AttendanceAttendance
After the initial year of growth (2006), attendance followed a similarAfter the initial year of growth (2006), attendance followed a similar
yearly trendyearly trend
There is a peak at week 10 to 20 (mid-March through May)There is a peak at week 10 to 20 (mid-March through May)
There is a mid-summer lull in attendanceThere is a mid-summer lull in attendance
December has an attendance peakDecember has an attendance peak
There is high variance toward the beginning of the year shrinking asThere is high variance toward the beginning of the year shrinking as
the year goes onthe year goes on
GivingGiving
After the initial year of growth (2006), giving followed a similar yearlyAfter the initial year of growth (2006), giving followed a similar yearly
trendtrend
Giving is smoother (less peaks and valleys) than attendanceGiving is smoother (less peaks and valleys) than attendance
Giving variance is similar throughout the entire yearGiving variance is similar throughout the entire year
