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Indonesia Economic Insight
2014
Contents Executive Summary
Background
Recent Developments
Macroeconomic Outlook
Macroeconomic Indicators
QNB Group Publications
QNB Group International Network
A. Recent Developments (2013-
 The tightening of global liquidity emanating from the
tapering of Quantitative Easing (QE) in the US has led to
periodic bouts of capital outflows from Indonesia, exchange
rate weakness and higher inflation in mid-
 In response, the central bank has hiked interest rates to
combat inflation and used international reserves to support
the currency, while the government has introduced export
restrictions to reduce domestic price increases
 As a result, real GDP growth slowed to 5.1% in the year to
Q2 2014, from 5.8% in 2013 reflecting lower exports and
weak investment spending
 The export restrictions have widened the current account
deficit (CAD) to 4.3% of GDP in Q2, from 3.4% in 2013
 The authorities have not been able to provide a significant
stimulus to the economy as the budget deficit (2. % of GDP
in 2013) is close to the legal statutory limit (3.0%) and
inflation (4.0% in the year to August ) is in line with
Bank Indonesia’s inflation target band -
B. Macroeconomic Outlook (2014-
 The new administration of President Joko Widodo (better
known as Jokowi) will face a number of challenges amidst
the slowing economy; structural reforms to boost growth
and encourage infrastructure investment will take time to
implement
 As a result, we expect real GDP growth to slow from 5.1% in
2014 to 4.5% in 2015 as the exchange rate could weaken
further and policies remain tight; an export- and
investment-led recovery in 2016 could lift growth to %,
provided reforms are implemented
 Export growth on higher global demand should lead to a
narrower CAD over the medium term, while a gradual
lifting of fuel subsidies should help reduce the fiscal deficit
in 2015-
 Inflation may rise from 5.5% in 2014 to 6.0% in 2015, owing
to fuel subsidy cuts and currency weakness, before easing
to 5.0% in 2016 once the currency stabilizes
 Banking sector growth is expected to continue slowing in
– on tighter domestic liquidity and rising interest
rates
Joannes Mongardini
Head of Economics
joannes.mongardini@qnb.com.qa
Rory Fyfe
Senior Economist
rory.fyfe@qnb.com.qa
Ehsan Khoman
Economist
ehsan.khoman@qnb.com.qa
Hamda Al–Thani
Economist
hamda.althani@qnb.com.qa
Ziad Daoud
Economist
ziad.daoud@qnb.com.qa
Rim Mesraoua
Economist - Trainee
rim.mesraoua@qnb.com.qa
Economics Team
economics@qnb.com.qa
Editorial closing: September 30,
Background
Since 1971, Indonesia has transformed itself from an
agrarian society to a global economic force
Indonesia has maintained consistently high real GDP
growth over the last 50 years, only interrupted by the
Asian Financial Crisis in 1997– In the process, the
economy has been transformed from mainly agrarian
to one of the fastest growing Emerging Markets (EMs)
through industrialization. During the Suharto regime
–98), rising oil prices created windfall export
revenue, which attracted large foreign direct
investment. However, strong growth during that
period masked deep–seated structural weaknesses:
endemic corruption, rising public debt, a poorly–
regulated banking system, protectionism, and a
persistent CAD. This left Indonesia fully exposed to
the 1997–98 Asian Financial Crisis as large capital
outflows led to a drastic depreciation of the
Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) and rampant inflation with a
severe impact on growth. Real GDP fell 13.1% in 1998.
Since then, however, the economy has grown rapidly
and was largely unaffected by the global financial
crisis of 2008- .
Real GDP Growth
(%)
Sources: International Monetary Fund (IMF) and QNB Group analysis
Rising wealth and a young population are driving the
rapid emergence of a large middle class
With 248m people, Indonesia is the world’s fourth
most populous country with the largest Muslim
population. Its total population is expanding by m
people every year yearly growth). The
population is youthful (~38% under 20), which should
drive labor force growth and provide a demographic
dividend into the 2020s. Economic development has
led to steadily–rising affluence. GDP per capita has
grown by an average since 1980, with a rapidly–
growing middle class and reached USD5.2k in 2013 on
a purchasing power parity basis (PPP). At the same
time, Indonesia was the 16th largest economy
globally, with a nominal GDP of USD869bn.
GDP per capita
(USD on a PPP basis)
Source: IMF
However, underinvestment since the Asian Financial
Crisis has led to a large infrastructure gap
The economy is underpinned by strong fundamentals,
but insufficient investment in infrastructure is
holding back growth. The economy is clogged by a
lack of infrastructure: heavy road traffic, congested
transport networks and power and water shortages
(see QNB Indonesia Economic Insight 2013).
Infrastructure investment has been well below the
average in regional peer countries (around 7% of
GDP), falling to below 4% since the global financial
crisis. Higher growth is possible, but is dependent on
better infrastructure to unleash the private sector.
Infrastructure Investment
(% GDP)
Source: World Bank (WB) and QNB Group estimates for 2013;
*Regional average comprises China, Thailand and Vietnam
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
2011
2013
Suharto Regime
(Av. 7.3%)
Asian Financial Crisis
2000-07
(Av.5.1%)
2008-13
(Av.5.9%)
4,072
2,979
5,214
2,285
1,804
1,145
736
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
2001199919971995
3.9
3.6
5.4
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.7
5.2
6.4
6.0
4.1
2013e20112009200720052003
3.8
4.0
3.1
3.2
2.1
7.5
8.8
8.0
Regional Average(~7%)*
Recent Developments
Tightening global liquidity led to capital outflows and
a weaker IDR in 2013-
The tightening of global liquidity emanating from the
tapering of QE has led to bouts of capital outflows and
exchange rate weakness. In May 2013, the US Federal
Reserve (Fed) announced its intention to taper QE,
which, against the backdrop of a widening CAD, led to
capital outflows from Indonesia. Portfolio tracking
data show negative net flows in May-December 2013.1
The exchange rate weakened 24.8% from IDR9,759 per
USD on average in May 2013 to 12,181 in January 2014.
After this initial adjustment in early 2014, capital
flows recovered and the monthly average exchange
rate stabilized in the 11,400-11,900 range. However, in
August-September 2014, growing expectations of
rising interest rates in the US have reignited capital
flight and the exchange rate weakened to 11,923 on
average in September 2014.
Capital Flows and the Exchange Rate
Source: Bank Indonesia (BI) and IIF
In response, the central bank has hiked interest rates
to support the exchange rate and contain inflation
In response to the Fed announcement of QE tapering,
BI hiked interest rates by 175bps to 7.5% between May
and November 2013 to help slow capital outflows,
support the exchange rate and contain inflation. The
BI has kept the policy rate steady since November
as capital outflows slowed and the exchange rate
stabilized. A combination of higher interest rates and
other monetary measures (such as reserve and capital
requirements as well as loan to deposit caps) have led
to tighter liquidity, leading to higher interbank rates.
Higher interest rates are in turn slowing the growth of
the banking sector and consumption (see below).
Interest Rates
(%)
Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Group analysis
International reserves have recovered, but this is
partly due to rising external debt
In response to capital outflows, BI intervened in
foreign exchange markets in mid- to support the
IDR, eroding international reserves to a low of 5.5
months of import cover in July. Since then,
international reserves have recovered as the exchange
rate has stabilized in the first half of 2014. However,
the increase in international reserves has also been
supported by higher levels of external debt, which
helped to counteract capital outflows. External debt
rose to 33.4% of GDP at end–July 2014, compared with
at end–January The rising external debt is
mainly the result of private financial and non-financial
institutions borrowing from abroad to maintain
external credit lines amidst tighter domestic liquidity.
International Reserves and External Debt
Source: BI
1
Portfolio Tracker data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF)
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
2
1
0
-1
-2
Jan-
14
Jan-
13
Jan-
12
Jan-
11
11,923
8,535
Equity Flows (USD bn, left axis)
USD:IDR (monthlyaverage, right axis)
Sep-
14
5.8
7.5
5.0
8.1
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14
BI Policy Rate Interbank Rates
28.8
33.4
6.5 6.4
5.5
5.8
6.0
6.3
6.6
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
25
27
29
31
33
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14
External Debt (% GDP, interpolated quarterly data, LHS)
International Reserves (mths prospective import cover, RHS)
Tighter policies have led to a slowing economy, with
exports dragging down growth
Real GDP growth slowed from 5.8% in 2013 to an
average of 5.2% in the first half of 2014 in line with our
earlier forecasts. The slowdown was mainly due to
weaker exports. A sharp drop in imports (which are
deducted from GDP) offset the export slowdown, but
suggests that domestic demand is slowing. Fiscal
consolidation led to a contraction in public
consumption, while investment growth remained
below historical averages owing to a stifling regulatory
environment, rising interest rates, concerns about the
widening CAD and the depreciating exchange rate.
Legislative and presidential elections in April and July
2014 may have added to the uncertainty, contributing
to the slowdown.
Real GDP
(% change, year–on–year)
Source: BI
Inflation has slowed so far in 2014 in line with the
tighter monetary policy
Inflation was pushed up in 2013 by a nationwide 20%
increase in the minimum wage, fuel price hikes and the
weakening of the exchange rate. The latter raised
import costs, particularly of food, since our last report.
In 2014, CPI inflation has slowed and WPI inflation has
broadly stabilized as the one-time effects of higher
minimum wages and fuel price hikes have cascaded
down to other domestic prices, and as the IDR has
stabilized. CPI inflation fell to 4.0% in the year to
August 2014, in line with the BI inflation target band
of 3.5% to 5.5%.
Inflation
(% year on year)
Sources: Statistics Indonesia (SI)
The current account deficit widened in Q2 on
weak exports and higher imports
The CAD has remained persistently high (4.3% of GDP
in Q2 2014) as exports have been depressed by weak
global demand, soft commodity prices, lower crude oil
output and restrictions banning exports of raw
minerals introduced in January 2014. Indonesian
exports are roughly split between hydrocarbons, other
primary commodities and manufactured goods. The
main Indonesian exports are coal, gas, palm oil and
crude oil. Soft global commodity prices have, therefore,
negatively impacted exports of hydrocarbons and
other primary goods. On the other hand, imports
continue to remain high notwithstanding higher
import prices due to the weakening IDR.
Current Account
(% of GDP)
Source: BI
-0.7
-1.0
-0.4
5.3
-0.7
1.2
-5.0
4.9
3.1
5.6
9.9
3.6
Q2 2014
5.6
5.25.8
Q1 2014
5.3
2013
5.1
4.7
Public Consumption
Private Consumption
Overall Real GDP
ExportsInvestment
Imports
4.1
12.5
13.8
12.9
7.6
2.8
0
5
10
15
8.2
Sep-
13
8.4
May-
13
5.1
Jan-
13
4.4
Jan-
14
7.3
May-
14
4.0
Aug-
14
Wholesale PriceIndex (WPI)
Consumer PriceIndex(CPI)
22.9
22.4
22.3
26.7
24.5
23.3
-23.4
-24.3
-23.5
-25.9
-24.0
-24.9
-2.7
-4.5 -3.9
-2.1 -2.0
-4.3 -5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014
Exports Imports Other Balance
The authorities have provided limited stimulus as the
budget deficit is close to the legal limit
The fiscal deficit widened in 2013 as weakening
economic activity, low oil production and the ban on
raw mineral exports held back revenue. Although the
government raised domestic fuel prices in mid-2013,
higher international crude oil prices and a weaker
exchange rate eroded much of the expected reduction
in subsidies, which account for about 20% of public
expenditure. The original budget for 2014 planned for a
deficit of 1.7% of GDP. It has since been revised
upwards to 2.4% of GDP in 2014, close to the legal limit
of 3.0%, in order to allow for some additional fiscal
stimulus.
Fiscal Deficit
(% of GDP)
Sources: IMF
Banking sector growth slowed owing to higher interest
rates and tighter liquidity
Growth in banking sector assets, loans and deposits
slowed in 2013-14 as monetary policy tightened.
Deposit growth slowed due to capital flight, despite
higher interest rates. This led to a higher loan to
deposit ratio (LDR), which rose to 95.7% at end-July
2014 from % at the beginning of 201 . BI requires a
capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 14% for banks with
LDRs over 92%, compared with a CAR of 8% for banks
with a lower LDR. Therefore, BI regulations and higher
policy rates have created considerably tighter
domestic liquidity conditions, slowing down asset and
loan growth. Banks are using higher external debt to
finance lending, without which the slowdown in loan
growth would have been more pronounced.
Banking Sector Assets, Loans and Deposits
(% change in IDR terms, year on year)
Source: BI
Nonetheless, underlying profitability and financial
soundness indicators were strong at end-
The banking sector remains well equipped to
withstand a crisis with high profit margins, low
penetration, strong capitalization and good asset
quality. Indonesia had one of the world’s most
profitable banking sectors in 2013. The average return
on equity (RoE) was around 2 %, owing to high net
interest margins of around 550bps underpinned by
strong demand for credit. The banking sector is
relatively underpenetrated, with assets accounting for
only % of GDP at end- , leaving ample room for
growth. Other indicators are positive, CARs were high
and rising ( % at end- ) and non–performing
loans (NPLs) were low ( % of total loans at end-
). The three largest banks are government-owned,
accounting for % of total assets at end- and
enjoying strong sovereign support. However, rising
LDRs indicate tighter domestic liquidity, which may
lead to deterioration in some financial soundness
indicators going forward.
Bank Returns and Penetration (End- )
Sources: IMF Financial Soundness Indicators and QNB Group analysis
18.1 17.9 17.6
19.7 20.0 20.0
-1.7 -2.1 -2.4
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2012 2013 2014e
Revenue Expenditure Budget Balance
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14
Assets Loans Deposits LDR (RHS)
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Philippines
India
RoE(%)
Assets (% of GDP)
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
China
High profits & room for growth
Macroeconomic Outlook (2014– )
The new Jokowi administration will face significant
challenges amidst slower growth, such as additional
capital flight and the large infrastructure gap
We expect real GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in 2015 as
capital outflows and the infrastructure gap hold back
growth. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates
from 0.25% currently to over 1% by end- , which
could lead to further capital flight from Indonesia,
weaker IDR and tighter monetary policy. The
government is likely to have to undertake further
fiscal consolidation, given the legal limit on the fiscal
deficit. It will therefore take time for the new
administration to push through new capital spending
to help close the infrastructure gap, which could lead
to a pickup in investment. If the new government
succeeds in pushing through its investment plans and
subsidy cuts while commodity prices and export
demand recover, this could lift growth back above 5%
in 2016.
Real GDP
(% change, year on year)
Source: QNB Group forecasts
The CAD should narrow as the weaker IDR supports
exports and holds down imports
We expect the CAD to narrow to 2.6% of GDP by 2016
(from 3. % in 201 ), predicated on the government
lifting export restrictions and removing fuel subsidies.
The latter would increase fuel prices, reducing
demand for imports of fuel. Restrictions on exports of
raw minerals could be eased over time as some large
companies have already received exemptions.
Government measures, to restrict the import of
foreign goods, such as electrical appliances, should
also improve the current account balance. The weaker
IDR should help reduce the deficit further by making
imports more expensive and exports cheaper.
However, the gains from greater export
competitiveness may be limited by the large share of
imported intermediate goods in finished exports, such
as clothes, textiles, car parts and other machinery.
Current Account
(% of GDP)
Source: QNB Group forecasts; *Flows of Income and Current Transfers
Capital outflows and the persistent CAD are likely to
lead to further IDR weakness and higher inflation
Capital outflows are likely to continue as US
monetary policy is tightened, leading to a weakening
of the IDR. The persistent CAD is likely to add to the
weakness of the exchange rate. The combined effect
of the depreciation in the exchange rate (pushing up
import costs and foreign inflation) and the new
administration’s plans to gradually remove fuel
subsidies over the next five years is likely to lead to
higher inflation in 2015 before it eases slightly in
We expect these inflationary pressures to ease
as the CAD is reduced and as the exchange rate
stabilizes.
IDR and Inflation
Source: QNB Group forecasts
5.0 5.0
7.5
5.5 5.3 5.5
1.0
0.0 0.0-0.5
1.0
1.5
-2.3
0.5 1.5
5.1
4.5
5.2
-2.5
-0.5
1.5
3.5
5.5
2014f 2015f 2016f
Investment Private Consumption
Public Consumption Exports
Imports Overall
22.8 22.2 21.223.3 22.2 21.4
-2.6 -2.9 -2.4
-3.2 -2.9 -2.6
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2014f 2015f 2016f
Exports Imports Other* Overall Balance
5.5
6.0
5.0
11,800
12,390
12,514
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2014f 2015f 2016f
CPI Inflation(%) USD:IDR (annual average)
The CAD is expected to be financed by higher external
debt
In line with our earlier forecasts (QNB Indonesia
Economic Insight ), higher external debt is likely
to finance the CAD going forward. We expect the CAD
to remain well above 2% of GDP during 2014-16. To
finance this amidst tight domestic and global liquidity
conditions, external debt is likely to continue rising
rapidly from 30.6% of GDP at end-2013 to around
39.8% of GDP at end- . We expect financial and
non-financial institutions to continue borrowing from
abroad in order to maintain their credit lines.
External Debt
(end of period)
Source: BI and QNB Group forecasts
The lifting of subsidies should lead to a narrower
fiscal deficit but spending constraints will remain
The new Jokowi administration plans the gradual
removal of all fuel subsidies during its five-year term.
It plans to utilize the released resources to finance
improved public services and investment in
infrastructure. Slowing growth and export restrictions
mean that revenue is unlikely to rise significantly as a
share of GDP in 2014- However, some of the
savings from fuel subsidy cuts are also expected to go
towards reducing the fiscal deficit. Therefore, on
balance, public finances are unlikely to contribute to
growth in 2015- .
Fiscal Balance
(% of GDP)
Source: QNB Group forecasts
Tight liquidity and high interest rates may constrain
banking sector growth
Capital outflows are likely to further constrain
deposit growth, particularly in 2015. BI will probably
need to keep interest rates high to support the
currency and stave off inflation. This will lead to a
continued tight liquidity conditions and a further
slowdown in growth of assets and loans during 2014-
We expect deposit growth to slow from around
10.8% in 2014 to around in 2015-16. The impact of
this slowdown on asset and loan growth will depend
on BI’s prudential regulations, particularly around
bank LDRs. Based on our baseline assumptions for
loan growth to slow from 15.6% in 2014 to 10.1% in
2016, the LDR would rise to close to 100% by end-
Banking Sector Assets, Loans and Deposits
(% change in IDR terms, year on year)
Sources: BI and QNB Group forecasts
266
304
349
402
30.6
35.2
38.1
39.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
100
200
300
400
500
2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
bnUSD % of GDP
17.6 17.7 17.6
20.0 19.7 19.1
-2.4 -2.0 -1.5-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2014f 2015f 2016f
Revenue Expenditure Balance
14.4
11.1 10.1
15.6
11.1 10.110.8
9.3 9.0
97.0
98.6
99.6
90
92
94
96
98
100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2014f 2015f 2016f
Assets Loans Deposits LDR (RHS)
Macroeconomic Indicators
Sources: BI, Bloomberg, SI and QNB Group forecasts
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
Real Sector (% change, yoy)
Real GDP Growth 4.6 6.2 6.5 6.3 5.8 5.1 4.5 5.2
Private Consumption 4.9 4.7 4.7 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.3 5.5
Public Consumption 15.7 0.3 3.2 1.3 4.9 1.0 0.0 0.0
Investment 2.4 8.8 10.1 16.3 4.9 5.0 5.0 7.5
Exports -9.7 15.3 13.6 2.0 5.3 -0.5 1.0 1.5
Imports -15.0 17.3 13.3 6.7 1.2 -2.3 0.5 1.5
Nominal GDP (bn USD) 540 709 845 877 869 863 917 1,010
CPI Inflation 4.8 5.1 5.4 4.3 6.6 5.5 6.0 5.0
Budget Balance (% GDP) -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 -1.7 -2.1 -2.4 -2.0 -1.5
Revenue 16.5 17.0 17.8 18.1 17.9 17.6 17.7 17.6
Expenditure 18.3 18.2 18.5 19.7 20.0 20.0 19.7 19.1
Public Debt 28.6 26.1 24.4 24.0 26.1 26.9 27.1 26.6
External Sector (% GDP)
Current Account Balance (% GDP) 2.0 0.7 0.2 -2.8 -3.4 -3.2 -2.9 -2.6
Exports 24.6 23.5 25.2 24.1 23.6 22.8 22.2 21.2
Imports 20.7 20.5 22.4 24.3 24.3 23.3 22.2 21.4
Invisibles Balance -2.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.9 -2.4
Capital & Financial Account Balance 0.9 3.7 1.6 2.8 2.5 4.4 3.3 3.5
FX Reserves (mths prospective imports) 5.5 6.1 6.2 6.4 5.9 6.6 6.4 6.4
External Debt 32.0 28.5 26.7 28.8 30.6 35.2 38.1 39.8
Monetary Indicators (% change)
Broad Money Growth 13.0 15.4 16.4 15.0 12.7 10.8 9.3 9.0
JIBOR (3 month) 7.1 6.6 5.3 5.0 7.8 7.8 8.6 9.6
Policy Rate (%) 6.5 6.5 6.0 5.8 7.5 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Exchange Rate USD:IDR (av) 10,390 9,090 8,776 9,384 10,454 11,800 12,390 12,514
Banking Indicators (%)
Return on Average Equity 26.8 25.9 20.3 21.0 19.8 n.a. n.a. n.a.
NPLs 3.3 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.3
Capital Adequacy Ratio 17.8 16.2 16.1 17.3 19.8 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Asset Growth 9.7 18.7 21.4 16.7 16.2 14.4 11.1 10.1
Loan Growth 10.1 23.3 24.7 23.1 21.4 15.6 11.1 10.1
Deposit Growth 13.8 20.4 18.7 15.6 13.0 10.8 9.3 9.0
Loan to Deposit Ratio 75.6 77.4 81.3 86.6 92.9 97.0 98.6 99.6
Memorandum Items
Population (m) 234.3 237.6 241.0 244.5 248.0 251.5 255.1 258.7
Population Growth (% change) 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Unemployment 7.9 7.1 6.6 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.7 6.9
Forecasts
QNB Group Publications
Recent Economic Insight Reports
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Disclaimer and Copyright Notice
All the information in this report has been carefully collated and verified. However, QNB Group accepts no liability
whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use. Where an opinion is expressed, unless otherwise
cited, it is that of the authors which does not coincide with that of any other party, and such opinions may not be
attributed to any other party.
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QNB Group Indonesia Economic Insight 2014

  • 2. Contents Executive Summary Background Recent Developments Macroeconomic Outlook Macroeconomic Indicators QNB Group Publications QNB Group International Network A. Recent Developments (2013-  The tightening of global liquidity emanating from the tapering of Quantitative Easing (QE) in the US has led to periodic bouts of capital outflows from Indonesia, exchange rate weakness and higher inflation in mid-  In response, the central bank has hiked interest rates to combat inflation and used international reserves to support the currency, while the government has introduced export restrictions to reduce domestic price increases  As a result, real GDP growth slowed to 5.1% in the year to Q2 2014, from 5.8% in 2013 reflecting lower exports and weak investment spending  The export restrictions have widened the current account deficit (CAD) to 4.3% of GDP in Q2, from 3.4% in 2013  The authorities have not been able to provide a significant stimulus to the economy as the budget deficit (2. % of GDP in 2013) is close to the legal statutory limit (3.0%) and inflation (4.0% in the year to August ) is in line with Bank Indonesia’s inflation target band - B. Macroeconomic Outlook (2014-  The new administration of President Joko Widodo (better known as Jokowi) will face a number of challenges amidst the slowing economy; structural reforms to boost growth and encourage infrastructure investment will take time to implement  As a result, we expect real GDP growth to slow from 5.1% in 2014 to 4.5% in 2015 as the exchange rate could weaken further and policies remain tight; an export- and investment-led recovery in 2016 could lift growth to %, provided reforms are implemented  Export growth on higher global demand should lead to a narrower CAD over the medium term, while a gradual lifting of fuel subsidies should help reduce the fiscal deficit in 2015-  Inflation may rise from 5.5% in 2014 to 6.0% in 2015, owing to fuel subsidy cuts and currency weakness, before easing to 5.0% in 2016 once the currency stabilizes  Banking sector growth is expected to continue slowing in – on tighter domestic liquidity and rising interest rates Joannes Mongardini Head of Economics joannes.mongardini@qnb.com.qa Rory Fyfe Senior Economist rory.fyfe@qnb.com.qa Ehsan Khoman Economist ehsan.khoman@qnb.com.qa Hamda Al–Thani Economist hamda.althani@qnb.com.qa Ziad Daoud Economist ziad.daoud@qnb.com.qa Rim Mesraoua Economist - Trainee rim.mesraoua@qnb.com.qa Economics Team economics@qnb.com.qa Editorial closing: September 30,
  • 3. Background Since 1971, Indonesia has transformed itself from an agrarian society to a global economic force Indonesia has maintained consistently high real GDP growth over the last 50 years, only interrupted by the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997– In the process, the economy has been transformed from mainly agrarian to one of the fastest growing Emerging Markets (EMs) through industrialization. During the Suharto regime –98), rising oil prices created windfall export revenue, which attracted large foreign direct investment. However, strong growth during that period masked deep–seated structural weaknesses: endemic corruption, rising public debt, a poorly– regulated banking system, protectionism, and a persistent CAD. This left Indonesia fully exposed to the 1997–98 Asian Financial Crisis as large capital outflows led to a drastic depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) and rampant inflation with a severe impact on growth. Real GDP fell 13.1% in 1998. Since then, however, the economy has grown rapidly and was largely unaffected by the global financial crisis of 2008- . Real GDP Growth (%) Sources: International Monetary Fund (IMF) and QNB Group analysis Rising wealth and a young population are driving the rapid emergence of a large middle class With 248m people, Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous country with the largest Muslim population. Its total population is expanding by m people every year yearly growth). The population is youthful (~38% under 20), which should drive labor force growth and provide a demographic dividend into the 2020s. Economic development has led to steadily–rising affluence. GDP per capita has grown by an average since 1980, with a rapidly– growing middle class and reached USD5.2k in 2013 on a purchasing power parity basis (PPP). At the same time, Indonesia was the 16th largest economy globally, with a nominal GDP of USD869bn. GDP per capita (USD on a PPP basis) Source: IMF However, underinvestment since the Asian Financial Crisis has led to a large infrastructure gap The economy is underpinned by strong fundamentals, but insufficient investment in infrastructure is holding back growth. The economy is clogged by a lack of infrastructure: heavy road traffic, congested transport networks and power and water shortages (see QNB Indonesia Economic Insight 2013). Infrastructure investment has been well below the average in regional peer countries (around 7% of GDP), falling to below 4% since the global financial crisis. Higher growth is possible, but is dependent on better infrastructure to unleash the private sector. Infrastructure Investment (% GDP) Source: World Bank (WB) and QNB Group estimates for 2013; *Regional average comprises China, Thailand and Vietnam -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 2011 2013 Suharto Regime (Av. 7.3%) Asian Financial Crisis 2000-07 (Av.5.1%) 2008-13 (Av.5.9%) 4,072 2,979 5,214 2,285 1,804 1,145 736 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 2 4 6 8 10 2001199919971995 3.9 3.6 5.4 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.7 5.2 6.4 6.0 4.1 2013e20112009200720052003 3.8 4.0 3.1 3.2 2.1 7.5 8.8 8.0 Regional Average(~7%)*
  • 4. Recent Developments Tightening global liquidity led to capital outflows and a weaker IDR in 2013- The tightening of global liquidity emanating from the tapering of QE has led to bouts of capital outflows and exchange rate weakness. In May 2013, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced its intention to taper QE, which, against the backdrop of a widening CAD, led to capital outflows from Indonesia. Portfolio tracking data show negative net flows in May-December 2013.1 The exchange rate weakened 24.8% from IDR9,759 per USD on average in May 2013 to 12,181 in January 2014. After this initial adjustment in early 2014, capital flows recovered and the monthly average exchange rate stabilized in the 11,400-11,900 range. However, in August-September 2014, growing expectations of rising interest rates in the US have reignited capital flight and the exchange rate weakened to 11,923 on average in September 2014. Capital Flows and the Exchange Rate Source: Bank Indonesia (BI) and IIF In response, the central bank has hiked interest rates to support the exchange rate and contain inflation In response to the Fed announcement of QE tapering, BI hiked interest rates by 175bps to 7.5% between May and November 2013 to help slow capital outflows, support the exchange rate and contain inflation. The BI has kept the policy rate steady since November as capital outflows slowed and the exchange rate stabilized. A combination of higher interest rates and other monetary measures (such as reserve and capital requirements as well as loan to deposit caps) have led to tighter liquidity, leading to higher interbank rates. Higher interest rates are in turn slowing the growth of the banking sector and consumption (see below). Interest Rates (%) Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Group analysis International reserves have recovered, but this is partly due to rising external debt In response to capital outflows, BI intervened in foreign exchange markets in mid- to support the IDR, eroding international reserves to a low of 5.5 months of import cover in July. Since then, international reserves have recovered as the exchange rate has stabilized in the first half of 2014. However, the increase in international reserves has also been supported by higher levels of external debt, which helped to counteract capital outflows. External debt rose to 33.4% of GDP at end–July 2014, compared with at end–January The rising external debt is mainly the result of private financial and non-financial institutions borrowing from abroad to maintain external credit lines amidst tighter domestic liquidity. International Reserves and External Debt Source: BI 1 Portfolio Tracker data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 2 1 0 -1 -2 Jan- 14 Jan- 13 Jan- 12 Jan- 11 11,923 8,535 Equity Flows (USD bn, left axis) USD:IDR (monthlyaverage, right axis) Sep- 14 5.8 7.5 5.0 8.1 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 BI Policy Rate Interbank Rates 28.8 33.4 6.5 6.4 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.6 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 25 27 29 31 33 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 External Debt (% GDP, interpolated quarterly data, LHS) International Reserves (mths prospective import cover, RHS)
  • 5. Tighter policies have led to a slowing economy, with exports dragging down growth Real GDP growth slowed from 5.8% in 2013 to an average of 5.2% in the first half of 2014 in line with our earlier forecasts. The slowdown was mainly due to weaker exports. A sharp drop in imports (which are deducted from GDP) offset the export slowdown, but suggests that domestic demand is slowing. Fiscal consolidation led to a contraction in public consumption, while investment growth remained below historical averages owing to a stifling regulatory environment, rising interest rates, concerns about the widening CAD and the depreciating exchange rate. Legislative and presidential elections in April and July 2014 may have added to the uncertainty, contributing to the slowdown. Real GDP (% change, year–on–year) Source: BI Inflation has slowed so far in 2014 in line with the tighter monetary policy Inflation was pushed up in 2013 by a nationwide 20% increase in the minimum wage, fuel price hikes and the weakening of the exchange rate. The latter raised import costs, particularly of food, since our last report. In 2014, CPI inflation has slowed and WPI inflation has broadly stabilized as the one-time effects of higher minimum wages and fuel price hikes have cascaded down to other domestic prices, and as the IDR has stabilized. CPI inflation fell to 4.0% in the year to August 2014, in line with the BI inflation target band of 3.5% to 5.5%. Inflation (% year on year) Sources: Statistics Indonesia (SI) The current account deficit widened in Q2 on weak exports and higher imports The CAD has remained persistently high (4.3% of GDP in Q2 2014) as exports have been depressed by weak global demand, soft commodity prices, lower crude oil output and restrictions banning exports of raw minerals introduced in January 2014. Indonesian exports are roughly split between hydrocarbons, other primary commodities and manufactured goods. The main Indonesian exports are coal, gas, palm oil and crude oil. Soft global commodity prices have, therefore, negatively impacted exports of hydrocarbons and other primary goods. On the other hand, imports continue to remain high notwithstanding higher import prices due to the weakening IDR. Current Account (% of GDP) Source: BI -0.7 -1.0 -0.4 5.3 -0.7 1.2 -5.0 4.9 3.1 5.6 9.9 3.6 Q2 2014 5.6 5.25.8 Q1 2014 5.3 2013 5.1 4.7 Public Consumption Private Consumption Overall Real GDP ExportsInvestment Imports 4.1 12.5 13.8 12.9 7.6 2.8 0 5 10 15 8.2 Sep- 13 8.4 May- 13 5.1 Jan- 13 4.4 Jan- 14 7.3 May- 14 4.0 Aug- 14 Wholesale PriceIndex (WPI) Consumer PriceIndex(CPI) 22.9 22.4 22.3 26.7 24.5 23.3 -23.4 -24.3 -23.5 -25.9 -24.0 -24.9 -2.7 -4.5 -3.9 -2.1 -2.0 -4.3 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Exports Imports Other Balance
  • 6. The authorities have provided limited stimulus as the budget deficit is close to the legal limit The fiscal deficit widened in 2013 as weakening economic activity, low oil production and the ban on raw mineral exports held back revenue. Although the government raised domestic fuel prices in mid-2013, higher international crude oil prices and a weaker exchange rate eroded much of the expected reduction in subsidies, which account for about 20% of public expenditure. The original budget for 2014 planned for a deficit of 1.7% of GDP. It has since been revised upwards to 2.4% of GDP in 2014, close to the legal limit of 3.0%, in order to allow for some additional fiscal stimulus. Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) Sources: IMF Banking sector growth slowed owing to higher interest rates and tighter liquidity Growth in banking sector assets, loans and deposits slowed in 2013-14 as monetary policy tightened. Deposit growth slowed due to capital flight, despite higher interest rates. This led to a higher loan to deposit ratio (LDR), which rose to 95.7% at end-July 2014 from % at the beginning of 201 . BI requires a capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 14% for banks with LDRs over 92%, compared with a CAR of 8% for banks with a lower LDR. Therefore, BI regulations and higher policy rates have created considerably tighter domestic liquidity conditions, slowing down asset and loan growth. Banks are using higher external debt to finance lending, without which the slowdown in loan growth would have been more pronounced. Banking Sector Assets, Loans and Deposits (% change in IDR terms, year on year) Source: BI Nonetheless, underlying profitability and financial soundness indicators were strong at end- The banking sector remains well equipped to withstand a crisis with high profit margins, low penetration, strong capitalization and good asset quality. Indonesia had one of the world’s most profitable banking sectors in 2013. The average return on equity (RoE) was around 2 %, owing to high net interest margins of around 550bps underpinned by strong demand for credit. The banking sector is relatively underpenetrated, with assets accounting for only % of GDP at end- , leaving ample room for growth. Other indicators are positive, CARs were high and rising ( % at end- ) and non–performing loans (NPLs) were low ( % of total loans at end- ). The three largest banks are government-owned, accounting for % of total assets at end- and enjoying strong sovereign support. However, rising LDRs indicate tighter domestic liquidity, which may lead to deterioration in some financial soundness indicators going forward. Bank Returns and Penetration (End- ) Sources: IMF Financial Soundness Indicators and QNB Group analysis 18.1 17.9 17.6 19.7 20.0 20.0 -1.7 -2.1 -2.4 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 2012 2013 2014e Revenue Expenditure Budget Balance 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 0 5 10 15 20 25 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Assets Loans Deposits LDR (RHS) 10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5 20.0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Philippines India RoE(%) Assets (% of GDP) Thailand Indonesia Malaysia China High profits & room for growth
  • 7. Macroeconomic Outlook (2014– ) The new Jokowi administration will face significant challenges amidst slower growth, such as additional capital flight and the large infrastructure gap We expect real GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in 2015 as capital outflows and the infrastructure gap hold back growth. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates from 0.25% currently to over 1% by end- , which could lead to further capital flight from Indonesia, weaker IDR and tighter monetary policy. The government is likely to have to undertake further fiscal consolidation, given the legal limit on the fiscal deficit. It will therefore take time for the new administration to push through new capital spending to help close the infrastructure gap, which could lead to a pickup in investment. If the new government succeeds in pushing through its investment plans and subsidy cuts while commodity prices and export demand recover, this could lift growth back above 5% in 2016. Real GDP (% change, year on year) Source: QNB Group forecasts The CAD should narrow as the weaker IDR supports exports and holds down imports We expect the CAD to narrow to 2.6% of GDP by 2016 (from 3. % in 201 ), predicated on the government lifting export restrictions and removing fuel subsidies. The latter would increase fuel prices, reducing demand for imports of fuel. Restrictions on exports of raw minerals could be eased over time as some large companies have already received exemptions. Government measures, to restrict the import of foreign goods, such as electrical appliances, should also improve the current account balance. The weaker IDR should help reduce the deficit further by making imports more expensive and exports cheaper. However, the gains from greater export competitiveness may be limited by the large share of imported intermediate goods in finished exports, such as clothes, textiles, car parts and other machinery. Current Account (% of GDP) Source: QNB Group forecasts; *Flows of Income and Current Transfers Capital outflows and the persistent CAD are likely to lead to further IDR weakness and higher inflation Capital outflows are likely to continue as US monetary policy is tightened, leading to a weakening of the IDR. The persistent CAD is likely to add to the weakness of the exchange rate. The combined effect of the depreciation in the exchange rate (pushing up import costs and foreign inflation) and the new administration’s plans to gradually remove fuel subsidies over the next five years is likely to lead to higher inflation in 2015 before it eases slightly in We expect these inflationary pressures to ease as the CAD is reduced and as the exchange rate stabilizes. IDR and Inflation Source: QNB Group forecasts 5.0 5.0 7.5 5.5 5.3 5.5 1.0 0.0 0.0-0.5 1.0 1.5 -2.3 0.5 1.5 5.1 4.5 5.2 -2.5 -0.5 1.5 3.5 5.5 2014f 2015f 2016f Investment Private Consumption Public Consumption Exports Imports Overall 22.8 22.2 21.223.3 22.2 21.4 -2.6 -2.9 -2.4 -3.2 -2.9 -2.6 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 2014f 2015f 2016f Exports Imports Other* Overall Balance 5.5 6.0 5.0 11,800 12,390 12,514 11,500 12,000 12,500 13,000 13,500 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2014f 2015f 2016f CPI Inflation(%) USD:IDR (annual average)
  • 8. The CAD is expected to be financed by higher external debt In line with our earlier forecasts (QNB Indonesia Economic Insight ), higher external debt is likely to finance the CAD going forward. We expect the CAD to remain well above 2% of GDP during 2014-16. To finance this amidst tight domestic and global liquidity conditions, external debt is likely to continue rising rapidly from 30.6% of GDP at end-2013 to around 39.8% of GDP at end- . We expect financial and non-financial institutions to continue borrowing from abroad in order to maintain their credit lines. External Debt (end of period) Source: BI and QNB Group forecasts The lifting of subsidies should lead to a narrower fiscal deficit but spending constraints will remain The new Jokowi administration plans the gradual removal of all fuel subsidies during its five-year term. It plans to utilize the released resources to finance improved public services and investment in infrastructure. Slowing growth and export restrictions mean that revenue is unlikely to rise significantly as a share of GDP in 2014- However, some of the savings from fuel subsidy cuts are also expected to go towards reducing the fiscal deficit. Therefore, on balance, public finances are unlikely to contribute to growth in 2015- . Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Source: QNB Group forecasts Tight liquidity and high interest rates may constrain banking sector growth Capital outflows are likely to further constrain deposit growth, particularly in 2015. BI will probably need to keep interest rates high to support the currency and stave off inflation. This will lead to a continued tight liquidity conditions and a further slowdown in growth of assets and loans during 2014- We expect deposit growth to slow from around 10.8% in 2014 to around in 2015-16. The impact of this slowdown on asset and loan growth will depend on BI’s prudential regulations, particularly around bank LDRs. Based on our baseline assumptions for loan growth to slow from 15.6% in 2014 to 10.1% in 2016, the LDR would rise to close to 100% by end- Banking Sector Assets, Loans and Deposits (% change in IDR terms, year on year) Sources: BI and QNB Group forecasts 266 304 349 402 30.6 35.2 38.1 39.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 100 200 300 400 500 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f bnUSD % of GDP 17.6 17.7 17.6 20.0 19.7 19.1 -2.4 -2.0 -1.5-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 2014f 2015f 2016f Revenue Expenditure Balance 14.4 11.1 10.1 15.6 11.1 10.110.8 9.3 9.0 97.0 98.6 99.6 90 92 94 96 98 100 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2014f 2015f 2016f Assets Loans Deposits LDR (RHS)
  • 9. Macroeconomic Indicators Sources: BI, Bloomberg, SI and QNB Group forecasts 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f Real Sector (% change, yoy) Real GDP Growth 4.6 6.2 6.5 6.3 5.8 5.1 4.5 5.2 Private Consumption 4.9 4.7 4.7 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.3 5.5 Public Consumption 15.7 0.3 3.2 1.3 4.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 Investment 2.4 8.8 10.1 16.3 4.9 5.0 5.0 7.5 Exports -9.7 15.3 13.6 2.0 5.3 -0.5 1.0 1.5 Imports -15.0 17.3 13.3 6.7 1.2 -2.3 0.5 1.5 Nominal GDP (bn USD) 540 709 845 877 869 863 917 1,010 CPI Inflation 4.8 5.1 5.4 4.3 6.6 5.5 6.0 5.0 Budget Balance (% GDP) -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 -1.7 -2.1 -2.4 -2.0 -1.5 Revenue 16.5 17.0 17.8 18.1 17.9 17.6 17.7 17.6 Expenditure 18.3 18.2 18.5 19.7 20.0 20.0 19.7 19.1 Public Debt 28.6 26.1 24.4 24.0 26.1 26.9 27.1 26.6 External Sector (% GDP) Current Account Balance (% GDP) 2.0 0.7 0.2 -2.8 -3.4 -3.2 -2.9 -2.6 Exports 24.6 23.5 25.2 24.1 23.6 22.8 22.2 21.2 Imports 20.7 20.5 22.4 24.3 24.3 23.3 22.2 21.4 Invisibles Balance -2.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.9 -2.4 Capital & Financial Account Balance 0.9 3.7 1.6 2.8 2.5 4.4 3.3 3.5 FX Reserves (mths prospective imports) 5.5 6.1 6.2 6.4 5.9 6.6 6.4 6.4 External Debt 32.0 28.5 26.7 28.8 30.6 35.2 38.1 39.8 Monetary Indicators (% change) Broad Money Growth 13.0 15.4 16.4 15.0 12.7 10.8 9.3 9.0 JIBOR (3 month) 7.1 6.6 5.3 5.0 7.8 7.8 8.6 9.6 Policy Rate (%) 6.5 6.5 6.0 5.8 7.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. Exchange Rate USD:IDR (av) 10,390 9,090 8,776 9,384 10,454 11,800 12,390 12,514 Banking Indicators (%) Return on Average Equity 26.8 25.9 20.3 21.0 19.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. NPLs 3.3 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.3 Capital Adequacy Ratio 17.8 16.2 16.1 17.3 19.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. Asset Growth 9.7 18.7 21.4 16.7 16.2 14.4 11.1 10.1 Loan Growth 10.1 23.3 24.7 23.1 21.4 15.6 11.1 10.1 Deposit Growth 13.8 20.4 18.7 15.6 13.0 10.8 9.3 9.0 Loan to Deposit Ratio 75.6 77.4 81.3 86.6 92.9 97.0 98.6 99.6 Memorandum Items Population (m) 234.3 237.6 241.0 244.5 248.0 251.5 255.1 258.7 Population Growth (% change) 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Unemployment 7.9 7.1 6.6 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.7 6.9 Forecasts
  • 10. QNB Group Publications Recent Economic Insight Reports China 2014 Indonesia 2013 Jordan 2014 KSA 2013 Kuwait 2013 Oman 2013 Qatar – Sept. 2014 UAE 2013 Qatar reports Qatar Monthly Monitor Recent Economic Commentaries Indonesia’s Economy Continues to Slow Higher Land Prices Accelerate Qatar’s Rent Inflation Draghinomics Introduces Quantitative Easing to the Eurozone Qatar Continues To Diversify Its Economy On Double-Digit Non-hydrocarbon Growth Weaker EM Capital Flows Suggest Fundamental Vulnerabilities Qatar’s Real Estate Prices Still Remain Within Fundamentals Declining Food Prices Increase the Risk of Global Deflation The Economics of Hosting a World Cup The Global Economy Continues to Stumble Along GCC Projects Underpin Sustainable Development and Diversification A new reformist Indonesian president could generate investment opportunities The rise of the Chinese Renminbi is an opportunity for Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice All the information in this report has been carefully collated and verified. However, QNB Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use. Where an opinion is expressed, unless otherwise cited, it is that of the authors which does not coincide with that of any other party, and such opinions may not be attributed to any other party. The report is distributed on a complimentary basis to valued business partners of QNB Group. It may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
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