By examining linkages between physical, biological and social drivers, the R

1. Nov. 8th , 2011
Rapid Assessment of Circum-Arctic Ecosystem Resilience (RACER):
a Framework and Tool to Guide Ecosystem Adaptation Measures
under Major Climatic Change
Problems of Adaptation to Climate Change (PACC) Conference,
Moscow, Russia
James Snider, Martin Sommerkorn*, Hussein Alidina, Susan Evans, Peter Ewins, Miriam Geitz,
Alfonso Lombana, Mikhail Stishov
© Lee Narraway/WWF -Camada
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2. Conservation in a Rapidly Changing World
As per the Copenhagen Accord
-Global warming over 3 degrees C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
- Magnitude of change consistent with IPCC scenario SRES A2:
Source: IPCC, 2007
,
- Under this scenario, the Arctic could warm by 7 degrees C by 2100.

3. Changing Landscapes
WWF, 2009
Changing permafrost fundamentally
alters hydrology, vegetation, ecosystem
structure and function

4. Changing Seascapes
Winter (ice thickness) summer
now
in
30 years Wang & Overland, 2009
Changing ice cover fundamentally alters productivity, food-
webs, ecosystem structure and function (& global weather)

5. How do we manage ecosystems under
rapid change?
© Peter Ewins / WWF” 5

6. Building Resilience
Ability of a system to absorb disturbance and still
retain its basic function and structure.
ØAbout maintaining/building
the capacity of systems
to adapt through change
(of the stability landscape)
ØForward-looking, identifying
options for the future
(values, services)

7. Building Resilience
Requires an understanding of system functioning:
Ø Drivers and their trajectories
(physical, biological, social)
Ø Ecosystem processes and
their response to change
Ø What role these and
feedbacks between them
play in building resilience

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9. Building Resilience:
Areas of exceptional productivity and diversity
confer resilience to the ecosystem
Literature data
Primary productivity
Landform heterogeneity © naturepl.com / Martha Holmes / WWF”

10. Building Resilience:
wind surface soil nutrients ocean sea ice
temperature moisture currents
“DRIVERS”
An understanding of the functioning of a landscape / seascape
that is not place-based, but process-based

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12. Drivers of an arctic marine shelf system
Ingram et al. (2008)

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14. 21st century sea ice projections
for the Beaufort Coast and Continental Shelf ecoregion
Be
Be
Huard, 2010

15. Assessing Persistence of Key Features to projected change
for the Beaufort Sea Coast and Continental Shelf Ecoregion
Key Feature Main drivers Current biological productivity & Main changes Assessed persistence of Key
habitat heterogeneity to GCM Feature’s future above-
climate average productivity /
variables diversity
Barrow canyon & polynya Benthic topography High productivity and benthic habitat H
Seasonal Ice Cover heterogeneity; warm saline Pacific water SST
Water circulation/currents incursions. Salinity
Sea Surface Temperature SIC
Mackenzie canyon Benthic topography High riverine plume nutrient inputs & H
Seasonal Ice Cover heterogeneity, with upwelling driven by SST
Water circulation/currents currents. Salinity
Sea Surface Temperature SIC
Mackenzie recurring Benthic topography Low absolute winter productivity, but SST H-M
shoreleads Seasonal Ice Cover open water regime allows light Salinity
Water circulation/currents penetration/biotic activity. SIC
Sea Surface Temperature P
Kugmallit canyon Benthic topography High riverine plume nutrient inputs & H
Seasonal Ice Cover heterogeneity, with upwelling driven by SST
Water circulation/currents currents. Salinity
Sea Surface Temperature SIC
Mackenzie plume Salinity High sediment-laden nutrient inputs, but SST H-M
Nutrients low habitat heterogeneity. Water Salinity
Water circulation/currents circulation patterns influence nutrient SIC
Sea Surface Temperature availability. SAT
P*
Cape Bathurst slope Benthic topography Habitat heterogeneity high, with resultant H-M
Water circulation/currents diversity of benthic fauna and current- SIC
Sea Surface Temperature induced nutrient availability. SST
Nutrients
Cape Bathurst-Amundsen Benthic topography Low absolute winter productivity, but SAT M
Gulf polynya Seasonal Ice Cover open water regime allows light SST
Water circulation/currents penetration/biotic activity. Salinity
Sea Surface Temperature SIC
Continental shelfbreak and Benthic topography Low productivity currently in deep water, H
slope Water circulation/currents but very extensive high seabed habitat SIC
heterogeneity. Salinity
Climate variables: Sea Surface Temperature (SST); Salinity; Sea-Ice thickness; Sea-Ice concentration (SIC); Precipitation (P); Surface Air Temperature (SAT).
Persistence index: H – high; M – medium; L – Low
* relevant for the Mackenzie plume is the precipitation over the watershed of the Mackenzie River, i.e. outside the Beaufort coast and shelf ecoregion

16. Rapid Assessment of Circum-Arctic Ecosystem Resilience (RACER)
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