CLIMATE CHANGE, SEA-LEVEL RISE and COASTAL GEOLOGIC HAZARDS

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CLIMATE CHANGE, SEA-LEVEL RISE
and
COASTAL GEOLOGIC HAZARDS
URI Climate Change Symposium
5 May 2011
Jon C. Boothroyd
Rhode Island State Geologist,
Research Professor Emeritus – Quaternary Geology
-------------
Rhode Island Geological Survey and Department of Geosciences
College of the Environment and Life Sciences
University of Rhode Island
jon_boothroyd@uri.edu

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CLIMATE CHANGE, SEA-LEVEL RISE and COASTAL GEOLOGIC HAZARDS

  1. 1. CLIMATE CHANGE, SEA-LEVEL RISE and COASTAL GEOLOGIC HAZARDS URI Climate Change Symposium 5 May 2011 Jon C. Boothroyd Rhode Island State Geologist, Research Professor Emeritus – Quaternary Geology -------------Rhode Island Geological Survey and Department of Geosciences College of the Environment and Life Sciences University of Rhode Island jon_boothroyd@uri.edu
  2. 2. Laurentide Ice Flow Directions You are here- Stone and Sirkin, 1996
  3. 3. Map Generated By:BA Oakley and JC Boothroyd
  4. 4. Oakley, 2011 Charlestown Moraine Ice margins modified from: Dyke and Prest, 1987 Ridge, 2010; Goss, 1993 Smith, 2010
  5. 5. Oakley, 2011 Ice margins modified from: Dyke and Prest, 1987 Ridge, 2010; Goss, 1993 Smith, 2010
  6. 6. Granitic Till Upland QUATERNARY DEPOSITS OF RHODE ISLAND Thick Stratified Deposits Narragansett structural basin Compact Till Upland EXPLANATION Stratified Material Till End Moraine - Till and You are here Stratified Material Miles 0 5 10 15 Block Island Kilometers Complex 0 5 10 20 30
  7. 7. Braided River on a Delta Plain A GLACIAL DEPOSITIONAL- ENVIRONMENT
  8. 8. Facies Deposited in a Glacial Lake Depositional Environment Imbricated Gravel Facies deposited on a delta plain Stratified Coarse- Stratified Coarse-- Medium Sand Facies Medium Sand Facies deposited on a delta deposited on a delta slope slope
  9. 9. EustaticSea-Level Rise +IsostaticRebound Laurentide at Ice Sheet? Laurentide 2m.100yr-1 Ice Sheet?Block Island 2m.100yr-1 Antarctic Antarctic Ice Ice Sheet? Sheet? 2-5m.100yr-1 2-5m.100yr-1 ExplanationOakley and Boothroyd, in prep 2011
  10. 10. Post-Glacial LakeAtlantic Ocean
  11. 11. Post-Glacial Lake EstuaryAtlantic Ocean
  12. 12. - 4 m below present 5,000 yBP
  13. 13. The Sea May Be Rising – But…..Narragansett Pier Seawall –Patriots Day 2007 WPRI.com 16 apr 2007
  14. 14. GEOLOGIC SHORE ZONE TYPES Percent• Beach Plain and Barrier Spit 25• Glacial Stratified Bluff 8• Till Bluff 23• Metamorphosed Sedimentary Bedrock 8• Igneous and Other Meta Bedrock 5• Discontinuous Bedrock 1• Shoreline Protection Structure 30
  15. 15. Southeast WindNortheast Wind From Wright and Sullivan, 1982
  16. 16. Patriots Day Extratropical Storm – April 2007 Newport Tide Gauge SET UP PREDICTED http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ STORM SURGE data_menu.shtml?stn=8452660%20Newport,%20RI&type=Tide+Data
  17. 17. Overwash -Browning Cottages RE Hehre
  18. 18. Frontal Erosion - Browning Cottages BA Oakley
  19. 19. Frontal Erosion 1939-2006 -Browning Cottages 2006 1939
  20. 20. Really Big Storms
  21. 21. Tidal Datums Newport HEIGHT NOW New MSL Old “MSL” Adapted from:www.ngs.noaa.gov/newsys-cgi-bin/ngs_opsd.prl?PID=LW0493& EPOCH=1983-2001
  22. 22. How High will theWater Be? Boothroyd and Hehre 2008 9.46 Feet Above MHHW Tidal Heights Newport Adapted from: www.ngs.noaa.gov/newsys-cgi- bin/ngs_opsd.prl?PID=LW0493&EPOCH=1983-2001
  23. 23. Frequency…?Next Month…. Next Year Adapted from NOAA; USACE 1988; Hehre 2007
  24. 24. Charlestown Beach ves rge plus Wa rS torm Su 100 yeaOverwash RE Hehre
  25. 25. Charlestown Beach, RIStorm Surge Overwash With Washover Fan Feb 1985
  26. 26. Charlestown Beach – Hurricane Bob 1991Washover Fan Deposition Removal is a Bad Idea ……. Barriers Naturally Retreat Landward and Upward Aug 1991
  27. 27. Lastly, Climate Change and theFuture Shore Zone of Rhode Island
  28. 28. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html
  29. 29. THE HOCKEY STICK Temp lags CO2 Medieval Warm Little Ice Period Age Moberg et al, 2005
  30. 30. Greenland Outlet Glaciers Change from Polythermal to Warm BasedA Key to FutureSea-Level Rise Brathwaite, 2002
  31. 31. HEIGHT NOW Adapted from: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8452660%20Newport,%20RI Boothroyd 2011
  32. 32. Observed Global Sea Level Rise ... Accelerating ter i me IPCC 18 cm rise since 1900 e Alt 2001 Current rate: llit 3.3 cm per decade Sate estimate es Gaug Tide Rahmstorf, Cazenave, Church, Hansen, Keeling, Parker and Somerville (Science 2007)
  33. 33. Global Sea Level Linked to Global TemperatureProjection of Sea-Level Rise 1990 - 2100 Using IPCC 2007 Temperature Projections Extreme Projection IPCC 2007 Vermeer and Rahmstorf, 2009, PNAS, v106, p 21537-21532
  34. 34. VR B1
  35. 35. VR A1F1
  36. 36. VR Max
  37. 37. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons2003 – 2004 Orthophoto
  38. 38. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons1938 Storm Surge + SL Rise 11 ft above MHHW
  39. 39. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons1938 Storm Surge + SL Rise 11 ft above MHHW
  40. 40. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons2003 – 2004 Orthophoto
  41. 41. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons2100 Inundation – 5 ft200 ft Barrier Migration
  42. 42. Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons2100 Inundation – 5 ft200 ft Barrier Migration
  43. 43. Coastal Rhode Island –A Common View of the Future Don Bousquet, June 2008

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