Good reading when you have a chance. Temp employment firms added 18,000 jobs last month. Hiring and GDP continue to improve. No discernable effect from Sandy on the national jobs reports.

1. Economic Update
December 2012
Michael Hespen
National Account Executive

2. Revisions to Previous Reports Bureau of Labor Statistics 3rd Qtr GDP: 2.7% (2nd Estimate)
September Revised from +148,000 to +132,000 (-16,000 Jobs)
October Revised from +171,000 to +138,000 (-33,000 Jobs)
Total: - 69,000 Jobs
Four Takeaways From November’s Jobs Report WSJ
So much for that Sandy effect: Superstorm Sandy was widely expected to push up
unemployment and, more generally, to wreak havoc on the jobs numbers. Neither appears to
have happened. The economy added 146,000 jobs in November, right about its recent average,
and the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since 2008. What’s more, the Labor
Department “did not substantively impact the national employment and unemployment estimates
for November.” That doesn’t mean Sandy had no effect — it just didn’t show up in the national-
level figures.
Broadly positive report: Retailers added 53,000 jobs, continuing a run of recent gains. The
number also may have been boosted by an early Thanksgiving, which made holiday hiring show
up earlier than usual. Restaurants and hotels also added workers, as did wholesalers, and
professional service firms hired a healthy 43,000 workers. The health care sector, which has 2011 2012
added to payrolls throughout the recovery, did so again, adding 20,000 jobs. The main bad news Components of
came in construction, which cut 20,000 jobs, and manufacturing, which was more or less flat. GDP 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd
Some of the industry-by-industry changes may have been affected by Sandy, but the Labor Consumers 2.22% 0.70% 1.18% 1.45% 1.72% 1.06% 0.99%
Department didn’t provide any estimates. (Personal
Consumption)
Bad news in the revisions: November’s data easily beat economists’ expectations, but the *Businesses -0.68% 1.40% 0.68% 3.72% 0.78% 0.09% 0.86%
good news was tempered somewhat by downward revisions to payroll figures from September (Gross Private
and October. Together, the revisions wiped out 49,000 jobs. Perhaps more of a concern is that Domestic
economists often watch the direction of the revisions for signs of where the job market is Investment)
Net Exports
heading: Figures are often revised upward in an improving economy and downward in a
worsening one. In recent months, the trend had been for upward revisions, but not this time. (Exports-Imports) 0.03% 0.54% 0.02% -0.64% 0.06% 0.23% 0.14%
Government -1.49% -0.16% -0.60% -0.43% -0.60% -0.14% 0.67%
Right on trend: The economy has now added an average of 139,000 jobs per month over the Total GDP 0.08% 2.48% 1.28% 4.10% 1.96% 1.24% 2.66%
past three months. Over the past six months? 139,000 jobs per month. Over the past year?
157,000. In other words, for all the talk of economic starts and stops, employers are creating jobs
*Inventories -0.54% 0.01% -1.07% 2.53% -0.39% -0.46% 0.77%
at a remarkably consistent pace. It’s a much slower pace than most people — including
component of
policymakers at the Federal Reserve — would like to see, but it’s been enough to bring down the Business
unemployment rate by a full point over the past year.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wall Street
Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis

3. Temp Penetration Rate: 1.91% 0.01% Job Loss/Gain: + 146,000 Jobs Unemployment Rate: 7.7% 0.2%
I
Change from Previous
Number of people employed as a temporary employee Job Gains Month Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or higher
divided by total non farm payroll employment Retail Trade 52,600
Professional & Business
43,000 July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Temp Employment Services
4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8%
Temporary help services gained18,000 jobs. Leisure & Hospitality 23,000
Financial Activities 1,000
Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important? Education & Health
“Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for 18,000
Services
Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead - Education -3.7000 Nonfarm Payroll –
nonfarm employment by three months when the Jobs Added/Lost
- Healthcare 20,000 Job Growth Details
economy is emerging from a recession and by six
months during periods of normal economic growth.” - Social Assistance 2,000 Private Sector 147,000
American Staffing Association Government Sector -1,000
Change from Previous
Job Losses Month Total 146,000
Construction -20,000
Manufacturing -7,000
Government -1,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
American Staffing Association

4. Unemployment Rate Projections Labor Market Trudges Forward
Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal) (Wall Street Journal)
GDP Projections
Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)
/
Source: Wall Street Journal, New York Times
Please note: WSJ Projections were released
prior to the BLS report