June 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook

National employment
situation: May 2017
June 5, 2017

May 2017 U.S. labor market at a glance
2
+138,000
(80 consecutive months
of growth)
1-month net change
+2,266,000
(+1.6% y-o-y)
12-month change
+804,000
10-year average annual growth
4.3%
Unemployment rate
5,743,000
(-1.9% y-o-y)
Job openings
-40bp
12-month change in unemployment
62.7%
Labor force participation rate
5,260,000
(-0.7% y-o-y)
Hires
3,116,000
(+6.3% y-o-y)
Quits
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Monthly gains continue to be unstable and below expectations
Monthly job growth continues to be volatile and in many cases falling below expectations. May saw the addition of only 138,000 net new jobs, while gains in
previous months saw downward revisions. Minimal improvement in retail trade combined with contractions in government and information kept increases
down, although professional services, education, health and leisure remained stable. With little improvement in the diversity of growth by industry, labor
shortages in key areas will be more acute in 2017 and 2018.
Metro areas are beginning to slow
Of the more than 50 large and mid-sized metro area tracked by JLL, only six now have annual job growth of more than 3.0 percent. Over the past year, the
number of markets over this threshold has declined sharply as unemployment below 4.0 percent in many cases. Markets such as Portland, San Francisco and
Seattle-Bellevue have recorded annual gains of 1.6, 2.2 and 2.7 percent, well below previous rates of growth. With tech growth declining to 3.9 percent, its
lowest figure so far this cycle, exposed markets are likely to see further reductions in headcount growth and, in turn, demand for space.
Consumer and business confidence metrics have stabilized
Consumer and business confidence remain elevated, but growth has stalled and in some cases slowly declined. The Consumer Confidence Index dipped for the
second consecutive month to 117.9 points, while the ISM Manufacturing Index has remained largely steady. Although the rapid increases of much of 2016 and
earlier in 2017 have slowed off, confidence is strongly positive and will drive further growth in the short-term.
May 2017 U.S. labor market highlights
3Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
106,000
122,000
221,000
183,000
164,000
196,000
360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
160,000
150,000
161,000
225,000
203,000
214,000
197,000
280,000
141,000
203,000
199,000
201,000
149,000
202,000
164,000
237,000
274,000
84,000
166,000
188,000
225,000
330,000
236,000
286,000
249,000
213,000
250,000
221,000
423,000
329,000
221,000
265,000
84,000
251,000
273,000
228,000
277,000
150,000
149,000
295,000
280,000
262,000
126,000
237,000
225,000
153,000
43,000
297,000
291,000
176,000
249,000
124,000
164,000
155,000
216,000
232,000
50,000
174,000
138,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1-monthnetchange138,000 new jobs in May fell short of expectations,
while previous months saw downward revisions
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 4

0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Unemploymentrate(%)
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
1-month net change Unemployment rate
Unemployment continued is persistent downward
movement to 4.3 percent as tightening intensifies

2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
Jobopenings(thousands)Job openings continue to hover around the 5.7-million
mark as labor-market dynamics shift

1.7%
2.4%
2.8%
3.1%
3.3%
3.9%
4.4%
4.8%
5.1%
5.1%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Mining and logging
Construction
Information
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation and utilities
Financial activities
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health
Other services
Professional and business services
Job openings rate (%)
Job openings for numerous sectors have a rate of more
than 4.0 percent

-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
12-month%change
Wage growth Inflation
Despite labor-market shortages, wage growth has yet
to hit the 3.0-percent mark

4.4%
3.4%
2.1%
2.2%
2.7%
2.5%
1.9%
2.4%
3.6%
4.8%
1.4%
1.8%
1.9%
2.2%
2.2%
2.4%
2.5%
2.7%
4.2%
4.3%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Mining and logging
Manufacturing
Education and health
Trade, transportation and utilities
Construction
Other services
Information
12-month wage growth (%)
May 2017 May 2016
Only finance, leisure and other services saw an
increase in annual wage growth in May

62%
63%
63%
64%
64%
65%
65%
66%
66%
67%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Laborforceparticipationrate(%)The labor force participation rate fell again to 62.7
percent in May

-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
12-month%change
Civilian labor force Employment
The rates of job growth and labor force expansion have
remained relatively stable in 2017

-9.0
-6.1
-3.0
-2.1
-2.0
-1.5
-1.3
-1.0
2.0
3.6
6.0
11.0
11.0
12.0
12.9
31.0
32.3
38.0
47.0
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Government
Retail trade
Nondurable goods
Wholesale trade
Information
Motor vehicles and parts
Utilities
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Transportation and warehousing
Mining and logging
Construction
Other services
Temporary help services
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
1-month net change (thousands)
Retail once again saw contraction, losing 6,100 jobs
over the month

-16.0
-0.3
5.3
24.0
32.0
35.9
39.0
49.5
63.0
74.3
77.0
117.0
140.5
165.0
191.0
331.0
436.7
525.0
622.0
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Information
Utilities
Motor vehicles and parts
Durable goods
Mining and logging
Retail trade
Nondurable goods
Wholesale trade
Manufacturing
Transportation and warehousing
Other services
Government
Temporary help services
Construction
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
12-month net change (thousands)
PBS still tops annual growth, while information remains
in flat or contracting mode depending on the month
622.0
525.0
331.0
165.0
63.0
524.1
PBS Education and health
Leisure and hospitality Financial activities
Manufacturing Retail trade
All other jobs
Core subsectors added 76.9 percent of all
jobs over the past 12 months.

0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
12-month%changeBachelor’s degree-holder unemployment fell to its
cyclical low of 2.3 percent in May

-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Professional and business services Financial activities Information
Information has yet to expand during any month of
2017 so far, keeping office-using growth muted

-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
12-month%change
Tech Energy, mining and utilities Office-using Total non-farm
For the first time this cycle, tech job growth fell below
the 4.0-percent annual rate

200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Initialunemploymentclaimsperweek
Intial weekly claims 4-week moving average
Initial unemployment claims remain at record lows:
ranging from 233,000 to 238,000 in recent weeks
17Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
ConsumerconfidenceindexConsumer confidence’s slight dip not enough to keep it
from near cyclical high reached earlier in 2017
18Source: JLL Research, Conference Board

The number of large and mid-sized metro areas seeing
3%+ job growth has declined as shortages increase
19
3.0%
3.2%
3.3%
3.3%
3.5%
3.6%
2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
Dallas
Fort Lauderdale
Salt Lake City
Atlanta
Nashville
Orlando
12-month % change
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
12-month%change
Total unemployment 10-year average
At 8.4 percent, total unemployment is only 50bp away
from its pre-recession low of 7.9 percent

June 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook

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