European logistics take-up is riding high on the e-commerce wave. In its wake, development activity rises further as vacancy is shrinking to cyclical lows. This infographic takes a quick look back and what to possibly expect going forward. Find out more > http://jll.link/60088H33n

1. 12.8million sq m
European Industrial & Logistics
Market Fundamentals
Q3 | 2016
YoY
2%
On 5yr Q1-Q3 average
22%
All markets significantly up on their 5-year Q1-Q3
average except for France, Russia and Spain
Logistics occupier markets still trending above their historic levels
in Q3 2016
17million sq m 4million sq m
JLL Supply Chain Activity
Index expected to rise to
128.9 by year end, up from
at 128.5 in Q3 2016 –
signalling further expansion
128.9
over 17 million sq m
could be taken-up in total
in 2016, in line with the
2015 record
Moving into the first six
months of 2017, occupier
demand is expected to
retain its current robust
levels at above 4 million
sq m per quarter
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JLL quarterly Industrial & Logistics analysis illustrates the current market condition and examines how it will evolve in the future.
All figures are in sq m / €, based on logistics units >5,000 sq m and UK>10,000 sq m
www.jll.eu
* JLL’s Supply Chain Activity Index, a composite index of economic and supply chain variables that the EMEA Industrial & Logistics Group
has constructed to forecast short-term corporate demand for logistics (distribution warehouse) space across Europe. Find out more:
http://www.jll.eu/emea/en-gb/research/256/jll-supply-chain-activity-index
QoQ
3%
QoQ
10%
YoY
43%
on 5yr Q3 average
71%
YoY
25%
62% on 5yr
Q1-Q3 average
62%
Q1-Q3 2016 completion volumes up YoY albeit Q3 marked the
third consecutive quarter of slowing overall new space added
to the market
Strongest growing occupier groups in Q1-Q3 2016 YoY
Take-up 3PL providers / couriers
YoY
16%
11.6million sq m
under construction
Third highest level of new construction starts in Q3 since the 2007/2008 boom phase.
However, developments remain largely build-to-suit driven, with no significant impact
on vacancy rates expected to the end of the year.
YoY
Take-up e-commerce driven
47%
Strongly growing completion volumes in most of the smaller
markets – slowing QoQ volumes driven by Czech Republic,
France and Russia; Germany slightly down
3PLs remain largest occupier group in Q1-Q3 but continued
alignment to omni-channel distribution models drives retail and
e-commerce led activity
Other
4%
E-commerce
11%
Manufacturing
19%
Third Party Logistics
37%
Retail companies
29%
Top performers YOY
Q3 warehousing rents QoQ
excl. Russia
YoY
excl. Russia
Rental growth marginally slowing further across Europe in Q3 2016 as the majority of
markets saw stable rental environments – with rents increasing in three markets in Q3 QoQ
(Milan +4%, Dublin +3.3% and Manchester +0.8%) whilst falling by 2.9% in Amsterdam
Rental growth slowing further YoY but outlook remains positive
0.2% 1.2% Dublin
Madrid
Glasgow
& Leeds
For more information, contact:
Alexandra Tornow
EMEA Industrial & Logistics Research
alexandra.tornow@eu.jll.com
Guy Gueirard
Head of EMEA Industrial & Logistics
guy.gueirard@eu.jll.com
Ryan Loftus
EMEA Industrial & Logistics Research
ryan.loftus@eu.jll.com
… with broadly stable activity expected over Q4 and into 2017
2016 occupier activity – following a slower growth rate in the second
half of the year – expected to remain level with the 2015 record year
but downside risks remain
with uncertainty over the
EU economy
% share of speculative development of total under construction
within the respective geography – end Q3 2016
29%
… with the largest speculative exposure in Russia and CEE; UK remains the strongest market
in Western Europe but declining further.
Speculative development edges up further but still at low levels
of speculative warehousing space
under construction at end of Q3
the highest volume since the
downturn in 2009; reflecting 29%
(20% if excluding Russia) of total
under construction
3.4million sq m
Western Europe
excl. UK
17%
UK
25%
CEE
34%
Russia
75%