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Westside Atlanta Residential Market Potential

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Presentation by ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. on the potential housing market for the target areas of Boone Corridor/Mims Park, English Avenue, Vine City, Atlanta University Center, Ashview Heights/Washington Park and Castleberry Hill. It outlines what areas are being studied, gives a migration analysis (people moving in and out of the area, as well as other Atlanta's neighborhoods and counties). Using this methodology, the presentation looks at the annual market potential.

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Westside Atlanta Residential Market Potential

  1. 1. An Analysis of Residential Market Potential Westside Atlanta Study Area ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  2. 2. Westside Atlanta Study Area
  3. 3. Understanding: ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. The legacy and history of the Westside neighborhoods. The housing preferences and economic capabilities of the people who live here and the people who might move here. New housing that would help to diversify the housing stock. Each neighborhood is unique, but there are common issues.
  4. 4. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. When you tug at a single thing in nature, you find it attached to the rest of the world. --John Muir
  5. 5. A Decade After the Crash ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  6. 6. Credit Still Remains Tight (both builders and buyers) ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  7. 7. Target Market Methodology Market Potential, Not Demand. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  8. 8. How many are likely to move to the Study Area? Who are the potential renters and buyers? What are their housing preferences? What kind of housing is currently available? How much can the market afford? How fast will they rent or buy the new units? Where will the potential market be moving from? ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  9. 9. Population: 19,175 Households: 6,020 1 & 2-Person Households: 75% Median Household Income: $28,300 Households Below $25,000: 46% Median Housing Value: $116,500 Owners/Renters: 26/74% Study Area Overview 2016 ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  10. 10. Study Area Households by Lifestage Traditional and Non-Traditional Families: 52% Empty Nesters and Retirees: 25% Younger Singles and Couples: 23% ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  11. 11. Where will residents of new units in the Study Area be moving from? The Westside Study Area: 24% Balance of Atlanta/Fulton County: 30% Regional Draw Area: 19% Balance of the U.S.: 27% ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  12. 12. How many households represent the market for new mixed-income housing in the Study Area? 4,135 households per year ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  13. 13. Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. Younger Singles & Couples 64% Traditional & Non-Traditional Families 30% Empty Nesters & Retirees 6% Who are the potential renters and buyers?
  14. 14. What kind of housing is currently available? General rents and prices in the market area. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  15. 15. General Rent Ranges $450 to $3,000 per month 575 sf (1br) to 2,400 sf (3br) ($0.79 to $2.62 psf) ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. MAGNOLIA PARK THE POINT AT WESTSIDE THE RESIDENCES AT CITY CENTER
  16. 16. General Price Ranges: Resales $18,000 to $300,000 730 sf (1br) to 2,304 sf (5br) ($11 to $180 psf) ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. THE WASHINGTON $90,000 $70,000
  17. 17. Do they want to rent or own, and what type of housing? Rental Lofts/Apartments: 63.8% For-Sale Condominiums: 12.5% For-Sale Townhouses: 11.5% For-Sale Urban Houses: 12.2% ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  18. 18. Atlanta MSA area median family income (AMI) for a family of four $67,500 ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  19. 19. HUD AMI Breakdown Household 30% 80% One-person $14,200 $37,800 Two-person $16,200 $43,200 Three-person $20,160 $48,600 Four-person $24,300 $54,000 Five-person $28,440 $58,350 ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  20. 20. Monthly Rents Based on AMI Breakdown Household 30% 80% One-person $355 $945 Two-person $405 $1,080 Three-person $504 $1,215 Four-person $606 $1,350 Five-person $711 $1,460 ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  21. 21. Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. 944 Annual Potential Renter Households What are their income ranges? 28% 18% 17% 14% 23% Above 110% AMI 80 to 110% AMI 60 to 80% AMI 30 to 60% AMI Below 30% AMI
  22. 22. Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. 525 Annual Potential Condominium Buyers What are their income ranges? 41% 17% 17% 14% 11% Above 120% AMI 80 to 120% AMI 60 to 80% AMI 30 to 60% AMI Below 30% AMI
  23. 23. Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. 485 Annual Potential Townhouse Buyers What are their income ranges? 30% 19% 17% 15% 19% Above 120% AMI 80 to 120% AMI 60 to 80% AMI 30 to 60% AMI Below 30% AMI
  24. 24. Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. 510 Annual Potential Urban House Buyers What are their income ranges? 39% 12% 17% 8% 24% Above 120% AMI 80 to 120% AMI 60 to 80% AMI 30 to 60% AMI Below 30% AMI
  25. 25. How fast will the target households rent or buy new mixed-income housing in the Westside Study Area? Rental Units: 15 percent capture rate For-Sale Units: 8.5 percent capture rate ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  26. 26. Annual Capture of Market Potential: 530 Mixed-Income Units per Year Over the Next Five Years Rental Apartments: 401 units For-Sale Condominiums: 45 units For-Sale Townhouses: 41 units For-Sale Urban Houses: 43 units ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  27. 27. Annual Market Capture: 401 Mixed-Income Rental Units Market-Rate: 182 units Affordable/Workforce: 128 units Low-Income/Public Housing: 91 units ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  28. 28. Annual Market Capture: 45 Mixed-Income Condominium Units Market-Rate: 24 units Affordable/Workforce: 21 units ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  29. 29. Annual Market Capture: 41 Mixed-Income Townhouse Units Market-Rate: 19 units Affordable/Workforce: 22 units ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  30. 30. Annual Market Capture: 43 Mixed-Income Detached Houses Market-Rate: 25 units Affordable/Workforce: 18 units ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  31. 31. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Next Steps
  32. 32. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  33. 33. Target Market 2-person household 25 to 34 years old $25,000 to $75,000 annual income ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  34. 34. Couple Nº 1 Dual-income, save her salary. Renters. Currently live in city. Goal: Buy a house. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  35. 35. Couple Nº 2 Dual-income, dual-career. Renters. Live in city. Goal: Stay in city, no maintenance. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  36. 36. Couple Nº 3 Dual-income, dual-career. Renters. Live in city Goal: Stay in city, buy a country place. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  37. 37. Couple Nº 4 Single income, single mom. Renters. Live in city. Goal: Buy a townhouse near the city. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  38. 38. Couple Nº 5 Single income, older sibling/ younger sibling. Owners. Live in city. Goal: Buy a house in the suburbs. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
  39. 39. Couple Nº 6 Trust fund income, he’s an actor; she’s a painter. Renters. Live in city Goal: Open their own artisanal store. ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.

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