September Market Seminar Part I

571 views

Published on

The first half of the presentation from todays seminar. Offers detailed analayis of the local real estate market trends and condtions.

Published in: Real Estate, Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
571
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
6
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

September Market Seminar Part I

  1. 1. Weichert, Princeton Office September Market Update Seminar Offers analysis of the Princeton & Greater Princeton, NJ real estate markets & effective strategies to buy and sell.
  2. 2. Presented by: Joshua D Wilton Broker/ Sales Rep. Weichert Realtors Princeton, NJ O 609-921-1900
  3. 3. Agenda <ul><li>The Market </li></ul><ul><li>Strategies for Buying </li></ul><ul><li>Strategies for Selling </li></ul>
  4. 4. <ul><li>Which way is the bus heading? </li></ul>Mind Exercises
  5. 5. <ul><li>The next picture was used in a case study on stress levels at St. Mary's Hospital. Look at both dolphins jumping out of the water. The dolphins are identical. A closely monitored, scientific study revealed that, in spite of the fact that the dolphins are identical, a person under stress would find differences between the two dolphins. The more differences a person finds between the dolphins, the more stress that person is experiencing. </li></ul><ul><li>Look at the photograph, and if you find more than one or two differences, you may want to take a vacation or at least get a massage. </li></ul>Mind Exercises
  6. 6. Mind Exercises
  7. 7. Agenda <ul><li>The Market: </li></ul><ul><li>- The National Economy a Year Ago… </li></ul>
  8. 8. Chrysler in Bankruptcy…GM Next…Over 1000 Chrysler Dealers to be shuttered… Source: Autodata
  9. 9. ‘ TARP… BAILOUTS… CREDIT CRUCH… “TBTF” RECESSIONISTA… CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP’ Source: Autodata We learned a new vocabulary…
  10. 10. Source: Autodata 2 Year Picture of the DOW…
  11. 11. ‘ Congrats! You Just Lived Through the Worst Stock Market Drop Since the Depression’ -about.com Source: Autodata We Survived…
  12. 12. The consequences… http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LASST34000003
  13. 13. The consequences… http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LASST34000003
  14. 15. What about the Real Estate Markets….?
  15. 16. A real estate market correction was taking shape the summer of 2001… Inventory was growing… Rates were edging up… Contracts were slowing…
  16. 17. Listings from the MLS in Weichert Market Areas In our local area (CT/NY/NJ Lehigh Valley, PA), the number of homes for sale (Weichert and non-Weichert listings) has steadily increased over the past four years. Variance % 2009 from 2008 NY (Ashby) -9.26% CT (Doepper) +1.44% Passaic/Hudson/Bergen NJ (Bixon) +.32% Western Central NJ/Lehigh Valley PA (McDonald) +.32% Northern and Central NJ (Prevete) +.28% Eastern Central/Shore Points NJ (Waters) +.08% Southern NJ (Williams) -.03%
  17. 18. 123 Any street, Princeton, NJ
  18. 19. 123 Any street, Princeton, NJ <ul><li>First Time home buyers were priced out of the market </li></ul><ul><li>Financing was too available (ie ‘subprime’) </li></ul><ul><li>Banks made bad bets (ie that home prices would continue to rise)Lehman, Merril, over 300+ fail </li></ul><ul><li>Credit freeze, affects ‘main street’ business… </li></ul>
  19. 20. Fast Forward to today… Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
  20. 21. Long Term Supply … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast Richardson Commercial
  21. 22. September 24, 2009 By Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR There is some disappointing news on home sales today, but overall positive news on a broader trend towards stabilization regarding prices and inventory. Existing home sales declined 2.7 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million units from a 5.24 million unit pace in July (without revision). Compared to the same month one year ago, existing home sales were higher by 3.4 percent.
  22. 23. Sales by Price Range
  23. 24. The Otteau Report – otteau.com
  24. 25. Where is the bottom of the market?
  25. 26. Where is the bottom of the market? “ The effects (of foreclosures) are continued declining prices….probably another 5-8%* to the bottom.  As for the effect of foreclosure pricing, all of these problems are causing home prices to go lower than is necessary from an affordability perspective .   That’s because everyone is now worrying about job security.  As a result, the recovery will take place at a faster pace once it gets started.” – Jeff Otteau (otteau.com- January 2009)
  26. 27. ‘ Real Estate is a Bottom up market…’ “ Everything I am seeing tells me we have arrived at the bottom of the market, specifically in the popular and affordable price ranges.” J. Weichert 6/2009
  27. 28. The Local Inventory Trends: Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
  28. 29. The Local Inventory Trends: Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
  29. 31. Princeton Boro. Active Inventory
  30. 32. Princeton Twp. Inventory
  31. 33. West Windsor Active Inventory
  32. 34. Hopewell Twp. Active Inventory
  33. 35. Plainsboro Active Inventory
  34. 36. South Brunswick Active Inventory
  35. 37. Cranbury Active Inventory
  36. 39. YTD Closed Homes Snapshot: 2008 2009 Princeton Boro 59 46 Princeton Twp. 144 113 West Windsor 247 224 Lawrence 228 203 Hamilton 561 521
  37. 40. 1. Real Estate is Local Top Five Rules for Understanding the Real Estate Market: 2. Real Estate is Local 3. Real Estate is Local 4. Real Estate is Local 5. Real Estate is Local
  38. 41. 1. Understand the Local Market That You are Buying into…
  39. 42. Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
  40. 43. 9/22/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Princeton Boro: All Styles 43 7 6.14 6 1 12 27% 1 3 12 Pton -Boro Condo/ Thouses 14 3 4.6 4 1 4 28% 0 2 4 Pton-Boro Single Family 29 4 7.2 2 (2) 8 27% 1 1 8 Pton Twp: All Styles 122 14 8.7 26 12 34 28% 9 10 18 Pton Twp: Condo/ Thouses 18 5 3.6 13 8 17 16% 5 10 15 Pton Twp: Single Family 104 9 11.5 13 4 17 16% 4 0 3
  41. 44. Town by Town Analysis 9/22/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings West Windsor: All Styles 100 26 3.8 36 10 19 19% 17 6 28 West Windsor Condo/ T.Houses 14 8 1.7 7 (1) 5 35% 5 0 6 West Windsor 55+ 12 0 99 - - - - - - - West Windsor Single Family 74 18 4.1 29 11 14 19% 12 6 22 Lawrence: All Styles 204 27 7.5 58 21 38 19% 13 10 26 Lawrence: Condo/ THouses 94 9 10.4 24 15 18 19% 8 6 10 Lawrence: 55+ 25 0 99 - - - - - - - Lawrence: Single Family 85 18 4.7 34 16 20 23% 5 4 16
  42. 45. Town by Town Analysis 9/21/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Ewing: All Styles 246 27 9.1 58 31 59 23% 25 11 26 Ewing : Condo/ T.Houses 45 7 6.4 16 9 8 18% 8 2 8 Ewing 55+: 4 0 99 - - - - - - - Ewing: Single Family 197 20 9.8 42 22 51 26% 17 9 18 East Windsor: All Styles 172 34 5.0 38 4 25 14% 17 6 32 East Windsor: Condo/ THouses 99 19 5.2 25 6 15 15% 11 1 15 East Windsor: 55+ 18 0 99 - - - - - - - East Windsor: Single Family 55 15 3.6 13 (2) 10 18% 6 5 17
  43. 46. Town by Town Analysis 9/21/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Hopewell Twp. All Styles 164 26 6 25 (1) 32 20% 14 7 15 Hopewell Twp. Condo/ T.Houses 22 6 4 1 (5) 3 14% 1 0 5 Hopewell Twp.: 55+ 4 0 99 - - - - - - - Hopewell Twp: Single Family 138 20 7 24 4 29 21% 13 7 10 Hamilton: All Styles 530 86 6 100 14 132 25% 48 20 73 Hamilton: Condo/ THouses 100 15 7 28 12 24 24% 12 5 16 Hamilton: Single Family 390 69 6 72 3 108 28% 36 15 57 Hamilton: 55+ 40 2 20 - - - - - - -
  44. 47. Town by Town Analysis 9/21/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Robbinsville All Styles 100 16 6 21 5 21 21% 15 5 15 Robbinsville Condo/ T.Houses 46 6 8 7 1 10 22% 7 1 5 Robbinsville 55+ - - - - - - - - - - Single Family 54 10 5 14 4 11 20% 8 4 10 Hightstown Boro: All Styles 55 2 27 10 8 9 16% 4 4 3 Pennington 22 3 7 8 5 8 36% 4 2 2 Hopewell Boro: All Styles 8 3 3 2 (1) 1 13% 2 0 1
  45. 48. Market Activity: Town by Town Analysis 9/21/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings PlainsboroAll Styles 65 7 9.2 17 10 8 12% 10 0 20 Plainsboro Condo/ THouses 34 5 6.8 8 3 5 14% 6 0 13 Plainsboro 55+ 12 0 12 2 2 1 8% 1 0 1 Plainsboro Single Family 19 2 9.5 7 5 2 10% 3 0 6 Cranbury: All Styles 33 0 99 5 5 4 12% 3 0 2 Cranbury: 55+ 5 0 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cranbury: Single Family 28 0 99 5 5 4 18% 3 0 2
  46. 49. Town by Town Analysis 9/21/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings South Brunswick All Styles 196 21 9 54 3 22 11% 21 18 36 South Brunswick Condo/ T.Houses 61 10 6 27 17 8 13% 6 8 16 South Brunswick 55+ 30 1 30 2 1 3 1% 2 3 3 South Brunswick Single Family 105 11 9.5 25 14 11 10% 13 7 21 Monroe: All Styles 471 30 16 107 77 57 12% 62 4 57 Monroe: 55+ 302 27 13 70 43 36 12% 26 3 44 Monroe: Single Family 168 13 13 37 24 21 13% 36 1 12
  47. 50. 9/21/09 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Montgom. 138 24 5.7 32 8 26 19% 10 9 32 Hillsboro 265 41 6.4 62 21 43 16% 13 10 30 Rocky Hill 5 0 99 1 1 1 20% 0 0 0 Franklin 238 105 75 32% 37 20 59
  48. 51. Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
  49. 52. Absorption Rate by Price Range Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values. As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually .
  50. 53. Sample Market Absorption Rate 107 current active listings 4 reported sales in last 30 days = 24.3 months absorption rate Anytown., NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
  51. 54. Market Scale for Supply & Demand High Supply/Low Demand Low Supply/High Demand Normal Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values. As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually. Note: This Market Scale is valid only for absorption rates between 1 and 12 months. Market Absorption in Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Normal
  52. 55. Princeton Borough Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months 0-$500 10 0 99 $500-999k 12 0 99 $1 million - $2 million 11 0 99 $2- $5 million 9 0 99
  53. 56. Princeton Township Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months 0-$500 10 1 10 $500-999k 48 3 16 $1 million - $2 million 39 1 39 $2- $4 million 22 0 99 $4 + 2 0 99
  54. 57. West Windsor Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months 0-$500 8 9 5.7 $500-750k 56 8 3.1 $750-999 29 2 10 $999 + 32 0 99
  55. 58. Lawrence Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months 0-$300 105 9 11.6 $300-500 58 6 9.6 $600-700 26 1 26 $700-999 5 1 5 999+ 9 0 99
  56. 59. Ewing Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months 0-$150 35 1 35 $150-250 127 11 11.5 $250-450 75 5 15 450+ 6 1 6
  57. 60. Hopewell Absorption Rate By Price Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months 0-300 8 5 2.6 300-500 56 5 11.2 500-700 29 2 14.5 700-999 32 0 99 999+ 37 0 99
  58. 61. Understand the Market That You are Buying into… I want to live in West Windsor…
  59. 62. Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
  60. 63. Understand the Market You’re Buying Into West Windsor <$500,000 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market. Active Pending Absorption Rate All listings 45 8 5.6 Months Townhouses 8 3 2.7 Months 3+ Bedroom Townhouses 3 3 0 Months

×