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HOW TO SOLVE THE
         CRISIS?



        Alcím mintájának szerkesztése




                                        Dr. Zoltan Pogatsa
24.5.2012
V or W shaped?
L-shaped:
•   Corporate capitalism
•   Corporate party financing
•   State capture
•   Unsustainable corporate, household and state
    finances
•   Crisis
24.5.2012
Rate of profit
Marx: falling


Reality: growing




Question: WHO WILL BUY THE PRODUCTS?
24.5.2012
Answers
1.   Mediatised consumerism
2.   Borrowing from the future (debt)
3.   Ridding the state of resources (tax cuts,
     offshore)
4.   Geographical expansion (CEE, China, BRICS)
5.   Environmental degradation
6.   War
24.5.2012
Mediatised consumerism




24.5.2012
RIDDING
 THE STATE
     OF
RESOURCES




24.5.2012
EVER
    SMALLER
•   Because it is
       STATE
    „too large”




24.5.2012
Financial deregulation   (Johnson & Kwak „13 Bankers”)




24.5.2012
Banking compensation




24.5.2012
24.5.2012
Securitization




24.5.2012
Offshore (Shaxton: Treasure Island)
Tax Justice Network Financial Secrecy Index:
1.   US
2.   Luxemburg
3.   Switzerland
4.   Cayman Islands
5.   UK
•.   Rich individuals in offshore: a complete
     yearly US GDP
24.5.2012
War




24.5.2012
Sovereign indebtedness




24.5.2012
Household indebtedness




24.5.2012
Geographical expansion




•   CEE, BRIC, etc.
•   New consumers for corporations
    Cheap labour offshoring for corporations
•24.5.2012
ENVIRONMENTAL
   DEGRADATION




24.5.2012
Responses so far
•   Anticyclical fiscal expansion
•   Monetary easying (QE1&2, ECB)
•   Austerity (Stiglitz, Soros, etc.)
•   No regulation
•   No sustainability



24.5.2012
Why don’t politicians act?
Finance
Chris Dodd, Chair of Senate Banking Committe
received $2.9mn from securities industry in
2007-2009, more than three times any senator
who was not a presidential candidate. („13
Bankers”)


Defense
Lockheed Martin is the biggest campaign
24.5.2012
How to solve the crisis?


    Cut the nexus between
 corporations and government.



24.5.2012
GREECE


        Alcím mintájának szerkesztése




24.5.2012
Greek state not big!




24.5.2012
Revenue side problem!




24.5.2012
Greece
•   3-5% of GDP in Offshore (mainly Cyprus)
•   Military expenditure: EU countries sold €1bn
    worth of military to Greece in 2010
•   Would need 6-8% growth to get out of
    sovereign debt trap
•   Will not happen with 5th wave of austerity


24.5.2012
Cheap lending in €uro




24.5.2012
€urozone not an optimal currency
               area




24.5.2012
Not a productivity issue!




24.5.2012
But a wage issue!




24.5.2012
Germany benefitted from €z




24.5.2012
Greece had deindustrialised in free
              trade




24.5.2012
THANK
      YOU!
•   pogatsa@gmai
    l.com




24.5.2012

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