Brexit as of 22 Oct & the Lib Dems - presentation for an audience in Tbilisi, Georgia - Europe-Georgia Institute; Friedrich Naumann Foundation

1. The current political
situation in the UK
and
The role of the
Liberal Democrats
in British politics

2. Imad Ahmed
• Fundraised for Democrats in USA, advocated women’s rights in Pakistan,
finance in London, advised Government of Rwanda for 4y; published in FT,
NYT, Internationale Politik etc.
• PhD researcher at UCL in development economics
• Lib Dem Member since 2008
• Approved for parliament candidacy
Party related memberships Activities
Paddy Ashdown Forum Presenting to you 
Liberal International British Group Human rights for Kashmiris
Lib Dem Muslim Forum Ending revocation of citizenship
Green Lib Dems Preventing global deforestation
Lib Dems in International
Development
Arms sales
Camden Lib Dems Knocking on doors
• Master’s from The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, exchange at HEC Paris
• BA Economics from UC Berkeley

3. The current political
situation in the UK

4. Impending BREXIT!
Key dates
• 23 June, 2016: EU advisory referendum, 51.9% for Brexit
• 29 March, 2017: 498/650 Parliamentarians – Article 50 of the Treaty of the EU
• 9 Sept, 2019: Legislation blocks No Deal Brexit
• 19 Oct, 2019: PM had to ask EU for an extension; sent an unsigned letter
• Current: Will Parliament accept Johnson’s Deal with the EU?
• With amendments? Confirmatory Referendum?
• How long would it take House of Lords to accept it?

5. Impending BREXIT!

6. What prompted the Brexit vote?
Great Financial Crisis
Poor policy response:
austerity hurting the
poor rather than
Keynesian intervention
Protest vote
Unethical, unlawful
campaigning
- Lies
- Global racist rhetoric
- Illegal use of data
- Overspending
Interests of the super rich:
Fear of loss of British tax
havens, anti-regulation
Values:
• Parliamentary, national
sovereignty
• Nostalgia of a false glorious
past
• Xenophobia
Internecine Conservative party
politics – inherited wealth,
nationalists vs pro-business

7. Why Remain?
Values
• Love, live, learn in Europe as Europeans
• Free movement of people
• Science
• International scientific papers have much more
impact than domestic-only research (about 40%
more). The latest UNESCO data show that 62%
of the UK’s research outputs are now
international collaborations.
• Best regulatory standards
• Environment (emissions, buildings, waste,
transport, nature)
• Labour
• Human rights
• Consumer protections
Interests
• The economy stupid!
• Free movement of goods, services, capital –
threatens the City
• UK’s biggest trading partner – exports,
medicines
• Average hh £500-£800/y poorer
• Dependence on EU workforce – £15B net
fiscal contribution
• 65,000 NHS staff
• 99% of 60,000 seasonal agricultural
workers
• Security, justice

8. What next? Worst case …
• DHSC: 75% of medicines, medical supplies come via Channel; disruption up to 6
months
• Some can be stockpiled, others not due to short shelf lives
• Not practical to stockpile for 6 months
• Inability to control disease outbreaks
• DEFRA: Fresh food supply ↓ prices ↑ hurt vulnerable groups, panic buying
• BEIS: Fuel supply disruptions, prices ↑
• NICS: Trade between N Ireland & Republic of Ireland severely disrupted  ↑ costs of
trading  some businesses will stop trading, job losses, black markets, direct action

9. Johnson’s Brexit Deal
• Effective hard border in the Irish Sea
• Mainland UK (Britain) out of the Customs Union, distance from Single Market
• £800 poorer/average household
• Political Declaration looks set to ‘slash workers’ rights, environmental standards
and consumer protections’
• Harm jobs, rights and living standards
• Damaging right-wing project, which will rip apart our relationship with the EU
and replace it with a US-style economy.

10. Johnson’s Brexit Deal
• TM aimed at frictionless trade; agreed to new customs arrangements, stay aligned w/ EU goods
regulations to avoid the need for border checks, UK to remain in EU agencies in heavily regulated
sectors
• BJ seeks tariff- and quota-free trade; customs checks at the border, goods will have to satisfy rules of
origin requirements to qualify for tariff-free entry, and trade will be subject to the threat of anti-
dumping duties and countervailing measures
• TM not commit to ‘level playing field provisions’
• competition, taxation, environmental standards, and labour and social protection
• Aims to undercut EU standards to gain a competitive advantage
• EU: given size and geographic proximity of UK, rigorous level playing field provisions for access
to EU market
‘Canada minus’

11. BUT: UK now pro-Remain

12. So why not stop Brexit?
• Ruling Conservative party fears wipe-out if it fails to deliver Brexit
• Introduced the referendum
• Promised to deliver advisory, non-binding, non-supermajority vote for radical
constitutional change
• “Brexit means Brexit” (Theresa May)
• “Do or die” (Boris Johnson)
• Voter-base cannibalised by brand new Brexit Party
2019 – annus horribilis
• Local council – Conservatives lost 1,330 seats as pro-EU Lib Dems gained 704
• Key by-election – Lost to pro-EU Lib Dems after Boris Johnson becomes PM
• EU election – Finished 5th; Brexit Party finished 1st, pro-EU Lib Dems 2nd

13. The party political situation
UK by
parliamentary
seats as of 2017
(this has
changed!)

14. So, who are these pesky
Liberal Democrats?

15. Pro UK, pro EU, pro immigrant

16. Liberal Democrats values
Preamble to our constitution
The Liberal Democrats exist to build and safeguard a fair, free and open society, in
which we seek to balance the fundamental values of liberty, equality and
community, and in which no one shall be enslaved by poverty, ignorance or
conformity. We champion the freedom, dignity and well-being of individuals, we
acknowledge and respect their right to freedom of conscience and their right to
develop their talents to the full. We aim to disperse power, to foster diversity and to
nurture creativity. We believe that the role of the state is to enable all citizens to
attain these ideals, to contribute fully to their communities and to take part in the
decisions which affect their lives.

17. Lib Dem Prime Ministers
Prime Ministers:
• William Gladstone between 1868 and
1894
• Earl of Rosebery, 1894-95
• Henry Campbell-Bannerman, 1905-08
• Herbert Asquith, 1908-16
• David Lloyd George, 1916-22
Deputy Prime Minister:
• Nick Clegg, 2010-2015
Birthed Labour, rebirthed from Labour

18. Lib Dem representation in gov’t
• 94/779 (12%) seats in the House of Lords – 3rd after Conservatives & Labour
• Punished in 2015, 2017 General Elections for coalition with Conservatives & austerity
• Nick Clegg (ex Deputy PM) lost his seat, as did most LD MPs
• Won just 8/650 seats in 2015 – 4th after Conservatives, Labour, Scottish Nat’l Party
BUT then strong message to Remain within the EU:
• Doubled Membership since 2016 referendum to >120,000 Members
• 2019 has been a momentous year
• Gained 704 council seats while Conservatives & Labour lost seats
• Won 22% seats in European Parliament – 2nd after the Brexit Party; 1st in London
• Won a key by-election + 7 MPs joined from Conservatives & Labour  19 MPs

19. Contributions to the UK

20. Liberal philosophy
• John Stuart Mill – ‘The most influential English-
speaking philosopher of the nineteenth century’ &
Liberal MP
• 2nd MP to call for women’s suffrage in 1832
• Warned against tyranny of the majority against
minority groups –
• Advocated necessary individual rights &
• Constitutional checks on democratically won
power

21. Beginnings of a welfare state, 1868-1922
• Reduced income tax; created inheritance tax, capital gains tax,
tax allowance for children, progressive tax, alcohol & tobacco
• Education for all 5-12 year olds, special schools for deaf & blind;
free school meals; scholarships for secondary school, school
clinics
• Illegal to sell children tobacco, alcohol, fireworks, beg
• Extended suffrage to countryside, then to women (1918)
• Trade unions not liable for damages during strikes
• Labour exchanges, Development Fund, minimum wages
• Health insurance, pensions

22. The Beveridge Report
• Social Insurance and Allied Services report of 1942
by William Beveridge, a Liberal economist & politician
• Vision of a welfare state
• Expanding national insurance
• Establishing a national health service
• Defeated Churchill in 1945, paving the way for its
implementation by a Labour government

23. Keynesianism
• John Maynard Keynes – economist and Liberal
Peer
• Negotiated the Bretton Woods organisations of the
IMF & World Bank
• Father of Keynesian economics and how to get an
industrialised nation out of recession

24. Social liberalism
• Roy Jenkins, Home Secretary 1965-67:
• Abolished capital punishment
• Decriminalised homosexuality
• Liberalised abortion law
• Relaxed divorce law
• Suspended birching
• Ended theatre censorship
• Left Labour to support entry into EC, formed the
Social Democratic Party

25. The Paddy Ashdown Years, 1988-99
• Supported Conservative PM John Major’s
government on the Treaty on the European Union
• Collaborated with Labour PM Tony Blair on
• Devolution
• Human rights act
• Freedom of information

26. Achievements in gov’t 2010-15
• Tax on plastic bags
• Off-shore wind energy power 1/8th households
• Equal marriage
• Mental illness = physical illness
• ↑ tax threshold for the poor
• £1,320 pa pupil premium for the most disadvantaged
• 15h free child care for disadvantaged children
• ↑ university tuition repayment threshold
• Banking levy

27. Now: a voice to the Remain majority