The document presents an exploratory data analysis of the Middle East and North Africa region conducted by a team using Python. The team segmented the region into geographic, political, ethnic, cultural and economic groupings. They analyzed missing and dirty data, identified potential outliers, and drew insights. Key insights included that GDP differences may influence trends more than other factors, education impacts income levels differently, and unrest can reduce investment. The appendix defines data categories and lists additional resources.
1. The Middle East and North Africa
Region
Exploratory Data Analysis and Insights using Python
MBAN Marina Cohort Team 1:
Arshdeep Kaur || Idrishan Kavak || Juan David Argüello || Tanyaradzwa Mushohwe || Ugur Düzgün || Yara Ibrahim || Yi Zhang
Date: November 1, 2018
2. MENA - SEGMENTED
• SEGMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON:
• GEOGRAPHY
• FORM OF POLITICAL RULING
• ETHNICITY, CULTURE & FAITH
• POLITICAL & ECONOMIC UNIONS (GCC) OTHER
GULF(GCC)
NORTH AFRICA
LEVANT
5. 1. Missing Data Strategy
11% of total data set missing
● Step 1: Fill in missing data
○ Reputable external data sources (e.g. UN, UNICEF)
○ Historical data averages (for Homicides per 100k)
Limited additional data found for:
○ Adult literacy (50%+ missing)
○ HIV Incidence (30%+ missing)
● Step 2: Impute remaining missing data
○ Normally distributed data => median of income group
Indicators not included in
further analysis
6. 2. Dirty Data Analysis
Female/Male Employment rates
• Female > male employment rates
• 4-5 x more men in Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Iran work force (ourworldindata.org, 2014)
• Low Income group Employment rates > High Income group
• Inconsistent with unemployment data
Access to electricity (rural & urban)
• Majority 90%+ access reported
• Reports reveal that 1 in 10 have electricity (Washington Post, 2015)
Some countries to exclude for 2014 due to conflict:
• Syria
• West Bank & Gaza
• Yemen
• Libya
7. 3. Potential Outliers Strategy:
Economic Factors
GDP (in USD)
• High Income:
• Saudi Arabia ($7.56 x 1011)
• Lower Middle Income
• Egypt ($3.06 x 1011)
8. 3. Potential Outliers Strategy:
Economic Factors
Tax revenue(in percent)
• High Income:
• Israel (23.33%)
• Malta (26.9%)
9. 3. Potential Outliers Strategy:
Economic
Compulsory Education Yrs
• High Income:
• Israel (13 yrs)
• Malta (11 yrs)
• Low Income
• UAE (6 years)
13. INSIGHTS: OUTILER
Malta – not really an outlier!
• Malta is a non-Arabic, non-Islamic, European country; Not a part
of MENA
• Profile and socio-economic statistics match those of High-Income
MENA region
• Outliers: “tax revenue” & “years of compulsory education” are
higher than those of average High Income MENA countries
• Suggest that GDP differences may be the major influencing factor
behind similar trends noted in the MENA region beyond their
conflicts, varying cultures, and political differences
14. INSIGHTS: ECONOMIC
1. GCC & Tax Revenue
• The High-Income GCC countries do not depend on tax
revenue. Their main source of revenue is oil
• Islam’s Sharia Laws dictate the regions’ business laws.
GDP growth
(in %)
Tax revenue
(in %) GDP
0.4
15. INSIGHTS: ECONOMIC
2. Tax Revenue VS Number Of Compulsory Years
Of Education
• GCC & High-Income Group is not affected by improvement
of education
• Middle-Income and Low-Income groups are most
positively impacted by increased education
• Therefore, education positively impacts Middle and Low-
Income groups’ GDPs
Compulsory
education (in
years)
Tax revenue
(in %) GDP
0.63
16. INSIGHTS: ECONOMIC
3. Middle-Income Regions are merging with
Low-Income Regions
• Increasing unhappiness in Lower-Middle Income group as it merges
with the Low Income group
• World happiness rankings:
Tunisia: 111, Egypt: 122 (Lower-Middle- Income)
quite comparable to:
Syria: 150, Yemen: 152 (Low-Income)
• Increasing Inequality suggested by the deteriorating GINI index
GINI index range in MENA: ~30–40
• Gini Index:
US: 41.1
the world average: 38.8
Israel: 41.1
17. INSIGHTS: ECONOMIC
4. Rising unemployment -> Unrest -> Less Trust -
> Less FDI
• The countries that have a higher unemployment rates are also
experiencing a lower FDI.
• Unemployment has externalities all over the country such as
social exclusion, civil wars, tendency to join terrorist
organizations.
• Peace and stability are required to increase the investment
climate
• CO2 emissions are highly correlated with unemployment too and
that can be attributed to the bombings in this region. So it also
has an environmental impact.
CO2 emissions
per capita
Unemployment
(in %)
0.58
18. INSIGHTS: ENVIRONMENTAL
1. GDP VS CO2-Emissions VS Pollution
• As the GDP increases, the CO2 emissions increase –
especially for High Income countries
• This insight is in in lieu of the fact that this region has a
tendency of prioritizing political issues and profit making
over environmental issues.
• Low income countries seem to be more environmentally
friendly which could be due to lack of the desired
resources.
For instance a fisherman in Gaza battles poverty with
aplastic bottle boat
20. Key Takeaways
As a business leader interested in
MENA, note that:
MENA is not one country
• There is no ‘one size fits all’ -
CULTURAL CONTEXT
• Always, dig deeper than the
numbers
CONFLICT RED FLAGS
• Heavy political and socio-
economical instability
24. Missing Data Categories
● Adult Literacy PCT 57.14%
● Incidence HIV 38.10%
● Women in Parliament 9.52%
● CO2 emissions per capita 4.76%
● Compulsory Education Years 4.76%
● Exports PCT GDP 4.76%
● FDI PCT GDP 4.76%
● GDP 4.76%
● GDP Growth PCT 4.76%
33. Tax Havens in the MENA Region
During the missing value analysis, we noticed
that “Tax Revenue as a % of GDP” variable had
several empty values.
61% of empty values
12 values in total (out of 22)
We were able to investigate thoroughly and we
found all the missing values from the 2014
Economic Freedom Index.
34. Tax Havens in the MENA Region
8 Countries have values values of 5% or less
This represents 40% of the total
Almost all of them are part of the “Gulf Countries”:
• United Arab Emirates
• Qatar
• Bahrain
• Saudi Arabia
• Libya
• Oman.
• Kuwait
Distribution with Histogram
Gulf Cooperation Council (a Union where they have political and economical collaborations, import and export agreements, so similar socio-economical situation, also similar ethnicities, faith and history. Also, most of them have monarchy ruling systems)
Bahrain - or Kingdom of Bahrain.
Kuwait.
Oman - or Sultanate of Oman.
Qatar.
Saudi Arabia - or Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)
UAE - United Arab Emirates
Levant (culture, history, and ethnic similarity, however different politics)
Jordan
Syrian Arab Republic
West Bank and Gaza
Iraq
Lebanon
North Africa (geographic similarity however different socio-economical situation)
Libya
Algeria
Djibouti
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Tunisia
Morocco
Other
Malta (European country, is not Geographically related to MENA, also different culture, faith….
Iran, Islamic Rep. (different ethnicity, faith, culture and history)
Yemen, Rep.
Israel
Government was overthrown and the new government is still developing (bright green)
Government was not overthrown, but changes were made (turquoise)
Fighting a civil war (red)
Government was overthrown and there was a complete transition to democracy (dark green)
Protests were stopped, no major changes were made (orange)
Notes:
Dirty Data defined as unreliable & unreflective of region’s realities
No active/recent data collection
Intentional data manipulation
Poor data entry
Source:
Washington Post, 2015. Retrieved from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/world-without-power/?noredirect=on
Notes:
Dirty Data defined as unreliable & unreflective of region’s realities
No active/recent data collection
Intentional data manipulation
Poor data entry
Source:
Washington Post, 2015. Retrieved from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/world-without-power/?noredirect=on
Zakat is an obligatory payment made annually under Sharia law on certain kinds of property and used for charitable and religious purposes, and is considered a tax break
Libya is an Upper-Middle-Income region and also depends primarily upon revenues from the petroleum sector, which represents over 95% of export earnings and 60% of GDP
4 failing states: Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen
3 wars: Syria, Iraq, Yemen
Major powers increasingly taking opposite sides – Saudi and Iran support opposite sides in Iraq, Syria and Yemen wars.
Proxy warfare has had devastating effects on the countries
ME prioritizes oil making for profit over water consumption
Gulf Segment has 600% more CO2 emissions per capita.
The avg GDP($) of GCC is 109% higher than avg for all other MENA COUNTRIES
The AVG Air Pollution rate in GCC is 100% higher than avg for all other MENA COUNTRIES
As a business leader interested in MENA, note that:
MENA is not one country
There is no ‘one size fits all’ - know and understand the geo-political and socio-economic dynamics of every country in the region
CULTURAL CONTEXT [(as we saw in missing data strategy and Dirty data analysis, we can refer to world bank being a reliable resource, however, it wasn’t enough 11% of data was missing )
Data collected from MENA is not always credible and does not stand alone as enough evidence to make decisions. A deep digging approach into external and internal factors is the best way to study the MENA region. ]
CONFLICT RED FLAGS
Heavy political and socio-economical instability
To do business with MENA region, note the following:
Segmentation of countries based on differences in socioeconomic factors and political and religious factor.
Culture:
ME prioritizes oil making for profit over water consumption
ME prioritizes oil making for profit over water consumption
ME prioritizes oil making for profit over water consumption
ME prioritizes oil making for profit over water consumption
ME prioritizes oil making for profit over water consumption
ME prioritizes oil making for profit over water consumption
ME prioritizes oil making for profit over water consumption
ME prioritizes oil making for profit over water consumption
Notes:
Dirty Data defined as unreliable & unreflective of region’s realities
No active/recent data collection
Intentional data manipulation
Poor data entry
Source:
Washington Post, 2015. Retrieved from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/world-without-power/?noredirect=on
Notes:
Dirty Data defined as unreliable & unreflective of region’s realities
No active/recent data collection
Intentional data manipulation
Poor data entry
Source:
Washington Post, 2015. Retrieved from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/world-without-power/?noredirect=on
Notes:
Dirty Data defined as unreliable & unreflective of region’s realities
No active/recent data collection
Intentional data manipulation
Poor data entry
Source:
Washington Post, 2015. Retrieved from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/world-without-power/?noredirect=on
Notes:
Dirty Data defined as unreliable & unreflective of region’s realities
No active/recent data collection
Intentional data manipulation
Poor data entry
Source:
Washington Post, 2015. Retrieved from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/world-without-power/?noredirect=on
