Analysis of Renewable Costs: The Need for Better Data

1. Analysis of Renewable Costs:
The Need for Better Data
Michael Taylor
Senior Analyst
GSE, Roma
12 December 2014

2. 2
The Voice, Advisory Resource and Knowledge Hub for 170 Governments
The International Renewable Energy Agency
Renewable energy can:
 Meet our goals for secure, reliable and sustainable energy
 Provide electricity access to 1.3 billion people
 Promote economic development
 At an affordable cost

3. 3
The World of Energy is Transforming

4. 4
Global Investment in Renewable Energy

5. BUT
DEPLOYMENT IS NOT ON
RENEWABLES STILL FACE
TRACK TO MEET OUR
TOO MANY BARRIERS!
SHARED GOALS

6. 6
Absence of up-to-date cost
data is a problem
Little cost data systematically collected
Data in public domain is patchy
Comparability of data not clear
Uncertainty over cost evolution
No clear, authorative voice on costs!

7. 7
Poor cost data is a risk
Without accurate up-to-date cost data,
how do you:
Determine role of RE in energy mix
Set support policies at efficient levels
Uncertainty creates risks, reduces ambition
Communicate benefits of RE

8. IRENA IS RAMPING UP ITS
WORK ON COSTS

9. • Decision making is often based on:
• outdated numbers
• opinion, not fact based
Cost Analysis:
Rationale and goals
• IRENA to become THE source for cost data
• Goals:
• Assist government decision-making, allow
more ambitious policies
• Fill a significant information gap

10. 10
What questions to answer?
Comparing LCOE is not enough
Decomposition of LCOE is required
What is competitive varies
Need to understand market maturity
Can require very detailed data

11. 11
IRENA’s cost data collection
IRENA now has a world class database
Significant, ground breaking analysis
How do we advance the work?
But limited resources

13. 13
Rationale and goals
Low hanging fruit is gone
Shift the emphasis
Engage with industry
Deepen the analysis
Collect more, better data

14. Member countries
Private sector
members
Observers
14
Alliance structure

15. How do we shift to more systematic
data collection?
15
• Should cost data have same status as basic statistics?
• What is the framework to collect the data? Who should
collect the data?
• Who are the local stakeholders that need to be onboard?
• And so on.....

16. Many different options
16
The Italian model
Data from existing policies
Systematic review, ad-hoc data
Open/crowd-sourced data
No one “right” solution, a toolkit

17. Benefits of systematic collection
17
Reduced uncertainty
Powerful communications messages
Avoidance of costly mis-steps
More efficient and timely policy settings
More efficient, larger markets

18. Co-benefits
18
Cost data can inform:
Scenario analysis
Help frame the policy debate
Roadmaps
Debunk myths

19. Where to now?
www.irena.org/costs