close to find, new approach in PBE

1. THE DECENT
EXPLORATION
Hade Maulin
Sr. Exploration Geologist
When YTF is close to find: re-invent Discoveries

2. HADE BAKDA MAULIN
Education
• Geology , Padjadjaran University
• Petroleum Geology, ITB
Working Experiences
2020 – present
Chief of G&G – PHE Ogan Komering
2017 – 2019
Sr Geologist – PHE Nunukan Company
2011 – 2016
Sr. Regional Geologist - PHE WMO
2011
MEA Technical and Portfolio asset – PHE Overseas
2008 – 2010
Exploration Geologist - CPOC Red Sea - Sudan
2007
Paradigm Geophysical Indonesia
2005 – 2007
BATM Trisakti University
North Sumatra, South Sumatra, Central Sumatra, East Java, West Java,
Barito, Kutai, Tarakan, Red Sea (Sudan), Sabrata (Libya),
Persian Gulf (Qatar)
clastic (deltaic system), new venture/frontier/deep water, carbonates and
naturally fractured reservoir (basement)
10Basins
Several Plays
in hade-bakda-maulin
hade.maulin@pertamina.com
https://tektonesiana.org/

3. What is Hydrocarbon Exploration ?
• Be Technically the Best
• Be Big & Be Everywhere
• Elephant Hunting Only
• Large Acreage Plays
• Niche Players / Local Expertise
• Acquisitions – buy the discovering company
• Don’t worry, Just Drill, Drill, Drill
• Only Drill Low Risk Prospects
• Buy In after Discovery
• Fire Drill: buy acreage to get in a new play after big discoveries have been made
What Drives Exploration?
Bob Boyce and Andy Pulham
The process of predicting, acquiring, drilling, and discovering
hydrocarbon accumulations with sufficient size and deliverability
to make money above corporate economic hurdles.

4. EXPLORATION, ISN’T IT?
Anticline Hunting
Henry D Rodgers, 1860 1st commentator
Sterry Hunt, 1861 1st proclamation “The history of petroleum”
I.C White 1st Geologist
Southern Oil Co 1st company to employ geologist
Seepages age
Petroleum System
Dow, 1974 : Source Rock  Oil System
Perrodon, 1980 : Petroleum System
Sir William Logan, 1842 1st known observer
Colonel William Drake, 1859 1st driller
“almost all discovery were found at the anticline with good porosity rock”  Reservoir
Several Discoveries with many dry holes
The geologic criteria governing the distribution of pools, and in particular the combined
presence of source rocks, reservoirs and seals, generally exhibit a certain geographic extension
which is reflected by the formation of a family of pool or even better, a petroleum system,
a structured set of natural elements of the same species or having the same function.
Meissner, 1984 : Hydrocarbon Machine
Sequence which contain all of the elements involved in the process of hydrocarbon
generation from source rock to consequent migration and accumulation constitute what may be
termed natural geologic hydrocarbon machines.
Petroleum System (Magoon & Dow, 1994)
Natural system that encompasses pod of active source
rock and all related oil and gas and which includes all the
geologic element and processes that are essential if a
hydrocarbon accumulation is to exist
Wallace Gilmore DowLeslie B. Magoon

5. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION
PBE
A method to build and leverage an understanding of the
basins and petroleum systems in which we work, and
geological plays they contain.
The Benefits
• Better early focus to a range of exploration activity
• Efficiency improvement
• More confident decisions
Petroleum system understanding forms the basis for the
subsequent play focus – quantifying the various aspects of the
system within each play, and using tool such as common risk
segment mapping to highlight sweet spots within each play.

6. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION
Source: Stig-Arne Kristoffersen

7. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION

8. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION
We Have all this
We Love to do this
We have to Look back

9. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION
Longley, 2016

10. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION
Longley, 2016

11. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION
Longley, 2016

12. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION

13. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION
Bob Boyce and Andy Pulham

14. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION

15. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION

16. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION
Active pod
Reservoir
Trap
Seal

17. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION
COMMON RISK SEGMENT (CRS)
• The first step is to make 6 individual Risk Element Maps
Reservoir: Presence & Effectiveness
Charge: Presence & Effectiveness
Seal: Presence & Effectiveness
• The 2nd step is to make individual composites (3)
Reservoir, Charge, and Seal i.e. - 2 maps make a 3rd
e.g. - Reservoir Presence + Reservoir Effectiveness = Reservoir CRS Map
• The last step is to make a Final Composite CRS Risk Map
i.e. - 3 maps make a 4th
Reservoir CRS + Charge CRS + Seal CRS = Final Composite CRS Map

18. PLAY BASED EXPLORATION
“Wicked Tuna Philosophy”
from various source with some modification

19. DISRUPTION IN EXPLORATION
The Decent Exploration: When YTF is close to find: re-invent Discoveries
(Maulin, 2019)
http://claytonchristensen.com/key-concepts/
Agfa, Kodak Digital Camera Smartphone
YESTERDAY TODAY FUTURE
Ford Honda Wuling or SMK?
Prospecting PBE (YTF) Close to Find (CTF)
Disruptors
incumbents

20. WHAT DO WE KNOW? WHERE DO WE KNOW IT?
YTF
When evaluating prospects and prospect portfolios we should place them in a play context. This gives us strategic
information needed to de-risk the play and assess the prospect’s ability to deliver Scope for Recovery (SFR) volumes.
We ultimately can also understand the additional potential (yet-to-find - YTF) in related prospects within the same play
or play segment.
Yet to Find (YTF) is an estimate of the remaining hydrocarbon
potential of a petroleum basin, territory or country.
It is a risked estimate of the as yet undiscovered recoverable
hydrocarbon resources which are expected to be found in the
target area.
It is an estimate of both volumes (resources) and risks and
therefore highly uncertain.
-Alan Foum-
YTF = (Total hydrocarbon generated and expelled * (1- migration losses ratio)*recovery factor) –
(discovered recoverable resources to date)
TYF is Future discoveries

21. WHAT DO WE KNOW? WHERE DO WE KNOW IT?
Maulin, 2019

22. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MEANOOIP/OGIP(MMBOE)
Years Of Discovey
Play Tipe
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
OOIP/OGIP(MMBOE)
Years Of Discovery
Onshore vs Offshore
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
OOIP/OGIP(MMBOE)
Years Of Discovery
Well Discoveries
Operator A Operator B
OFFSHORE
ONSHORE
REEFAL
THRUST
WRENCH
Deep water
Flat Stage
Flat Stage
Flat Stage
Flat Stage
Flat Stage
Problem Finding – Creaming Curve
Flat Stage
(example from “Meruya Basin”)
Operator A Operator B
Operator A Operator B

23. Problem Finding – Creaming Curve
(example from Ginger & Fielding, 2005)

24. CLOSE TO FIND
• Potensi Hidrokarbon “Cekungan Meruya” :
150 BBOE
• Potensi HC sampai Trapped : 15 BBOE
• Teridentifikasi : 5,5 BBOE ( Field, P/L )
• Opportunity : 9,5 BBOE
22.5% of 150 BBOE - identified
33.75 – 5.5= 28.25 BBOE
YTF:

25. RESERVES & RESOURCES TERIDENTIFIKASI DI CEKUNGAN MERUYA
• Potensi Hidrokarbon Cekungan Meruya : 150
BBOE
• Potensi HC sampai Trapped : 15 BBOE
• Teridentifikasi : 5,5 BBOE ( Field, P/L )
• Opportunity : 9.5 BBOE
YTF = (Total hydrocarbon generated and expelled * (1- migration losses ratio)*recovery
factor) – (discovered recoverable resources to date)
= (150 BBOE * (1-0.75)*0.3) – (discovered recoverable resources to date)
= 12.5 BBOE – (5.5 BBOE)
= 7 BBOE
28.25 BBOEYTF by England (1994)
YTF by Study (2018)

26. CLOSE TO FIND
Final Composite CRSSealReservoirCharge
27 Solutions
1 = Green
7 = Yellow
19 = Red
Maulin, 2019
OUR BELOVED BASIN

27. CLOSE TO FIND
Maulin, 2019
Area we work at
• Play identification
• Lead/Prospects Maps
• Analogues
• Total Resources Estimation
…. We all UNDERESTIMATE our basin
OUR BELOVED BASIN COMPLEX TRAP

28. CLOSE TO FIND
Final CRSSealReservoirChargeCarrier Beds
Fact and Assumption
17,5% were loss to Prime Migration
60% were loss before accumulation
1-5 % might stay in carrier beds
Basin Init BBOE prime loss (BBOE) Stay at CB (BBOE)
100 17, 5 0,17
OUR BELOVED BASIN COMPLEX TRAP
CB TRAP
Example in “South Meruya Basin”:
Area we work at
Loses 0.175 0.075 0.475 0.05
17.5 7.5 47.5 5
1% stay 0.175 0.075 0.475 0.05
0.775
775
100
Total (BBOE)
MMBOE
Basin Init
(BBOE)

29. CLOSE TO FIND
~13.32 ppg

30. CLOSE TO FIND
Late Pliocene
Late Miocene
Mid- Miocene
DST#5
DST#2
Type III kerogen, 10-15% start
to expulsion, tend to stable up
to 100%
DST record
Depth (ft)
5653-5659 8.8 MMCFD, 10 BCPD
7188-7211 H2O
8337-8343 H2O
9503-9509.5 7.9 MMCFD, 48 BCPD
9678-9954 H2O
Uplifted?
Uplifted?

31. CLOSE TO FIND
Late Pliocene
Late Miocene
Mid- Miocene
DST#5
DST#2
Type III kerogen, 10-15% start
to expulsion, tend to stable up
to 100%
DST record
Depth (ft)
5653-5659 8.8 MMCFD, 10 BCPD
7188-7211 H2O
8337-8343 H2O
9503-9509.5 7.9 MMCFD, 48 BCPD
9678-9954 H2O
suppresed?
supresi terjadi karena vitrinit terlumuri
(impregnated) bitumen atau hidrokarbon
mobil (Jones dan Edison, 1979; Hutton
dan Cook, 1980; Hutton et al., 1980;
Kalkreuth, 1982)
Negative Anomaly / Suppression
suppresed?
HI increase due to additional S2:
Migrated HC

32. CLOSE TO FIND
Structural development:
~Pleistocene

33. CLOSE TO FIND
Longley, 2016

34. CLOSE TO FIND
Osadetz & Chen, 2006

35. CLOSE TO FIND
• Prominent, completely filled fill-spill chains evident in the
Gippsland Basin, with focused hydrocarbon migration
• Charge history data show evidence for early major oil charge
with oil migrating through major fields via fill-spill chains
• Where did (and does) this massive volume of hydrocarbons
go? –Leakage and seepage

36. CLOSE TO FIND

37. Recommendation:
STRATIGRAPHIC PLAY on CTF
“When you can’t reach on a Focus, try to create a nice bokeh”
-Maulin, 2020-

38. STRATIGRAPHIC PLAY
Longley, 2016

39. 4
EXPLORATION BOLD LINE
• Liza is probably 2billion recoverable and has led to ~5billion bboe being discovered in
the last few years in DW Guyana
• Many companies turned down the opportunity because they did not like the area
and/or they did not believe the amplitude anomaly
• The same thing has happened in many areas…
• You need to collect ALL your leads and prospects all the time and understand which
ones are the special ones…
GIS-PAX Pty Ltd@2017
The Guyana Exxon Discoveries
SHELL
Exploration by Structural Play
EXXON
Stabroek Block
nothing big
New Idea of Exploration
- Seismic approach
- Stratigraphic Traps
LIZA PROJECT BIG SHOT
• more than 295 ft (90 m) of
oil-bearing sandstone
reservoirs.
• Significant oil discovery
with potential recoverable
reserves of 800 to 1,400
MMBOE
stratigraphic on-laps, ponded turbidites, basin floor fans and Tertiary mass
transport complexes.
PULL-OUT
DON’T STOP EXPLORING, START TO THINK DIFFERENTLY IN 4G: GEOLOGY-GEOPHYSICS-GEOCHEM-GEOHYSTORY

40. STRATIGRAPHIC PLAY
1. Slope & Basin Floor Deposits

41. STRATIGRAPHIC PLAY
41
Golden Zone / Productive zone (Nadeu, 2011)
Optimal HC
Entrapment
Efficiency in
Basins

42. Magneto (/mæɡˈniːtoʊ/) is a fictional character appearing in American comic books published
by Marvel Comics, commonly in association with the X-Men. Created by writer Stan Lee and
artist Jack Kirby, the character first appears in The X-Men #1 (cover-dated Sept. 1963) as
an adversary of the X-Men.
MAGNETO VS INDIAN HERO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOJJ26xGytU
Indian Hero
INSTANT – SPONTANEOUS - IMITATE

43. SUMMARY
• In term of Exploration stage, most of Indonesian Basin is considered as Emerging to Mature Basin. The YTF
value should be challenging; there are uncertainties on it.
• Most of Lead/Prospects are addressed to structural while stratigraphic and others still need to be sharpened.
• PBE is still a proper way to do exploration; explorationists are suggested to looking back at Play focus
• I introduce “Close to Find” as an suggestion to point out to what we obviously know in Petroleum System but
lack very often in observation: Carrier Beds. The approach needs some basic data (wells and good seismic) and
Faithfull geologists to do :
• Ortho-contour and migration maps
• Facies study: Facies association, facies architecture, distribution map
• Pressure study and hopefully; pressure maps
• Comprehension of carrier beds and Nadeau’s Golden Zone can help you most
• Be Basic:
YTF = Identified Prospectivity + Unidentified Prospectivity
(all in Risked Volume MMBOE)
(Longley, 2015)
The Decent Exploration: When YTF is close to find: re-invent Discoveries
(Maulin, 2019)