Domestic and international market development for high-value cattle and beef in South-East Cambodia

1. 1
Domestic
and
international
market
development
for
high-­‐value
cattle
and
beef
in
South-­‐East
Cambodia
ACIAR
Project
No.
AH/2010/046
Working
Paper
No.3
Ho
Chi
Minh
City
beef
market
demand
and
supply
report
Nam
Hoang

2. 2

3. 3
Contents
1
DEMAND
FOR
BEEF
IN
HCMC
MARKET
..................................................................................................
8
1.1
DEMOGRAPHIC
CHARACTERISTICS
.................................................................................................................
8
1.2
ANNUAL
BEEF
CONSUMPTION
PER
CAPITA
IN
HCMC
........................................................................................
9
1.3
DEMAND
FOR
BEEF
AND
LIVE
CATTLE
IN
HCMC
MARKET
.................................................................................
12
2
BEEF
SUPPLY
.......................................................................................................................................
14
2.1
CATTLE
RAISING
.......................................................................................................................................
14
2.2
THE
BALANCE
OF
SUPPLY
AND
DEMAND
FOR
BEEF
...........................................................................................
17
2.3
BEEF
SUPPLY
FROM
NEIGHBORING
AREAS
INCLUDING
CAMBODIA:
.....................................................................
18
2.4
IMPORTED
BEEF:
......................................................................................................................................
22
2.4.1
Imported
live
cattle:
.......................................................................................................................
23
2.4.2
Imported
frozen
beef:
.....................................................................................................................
25
2.4.3
Imported
fresh
beef:
.......................................................................................................................
27
2.5
IMPORTED
BEEF
AND
LIVE
CATTLE
FROM
AUSTRALIA:
......................................................................................
29
3
THE
FACTORS
AFFECTING
SUPPLY
AND
DEMAND
FOR
BEEF
.................................................................
31
3.1
PRICE:
...................................................................................................................................................
31
3.2
ANIMAL
HEALTH
INFORMATION
AND
CONSUMER
PURCHASING
POWER
..............................................................
31
3.3
THE
PROPORTION
OF
BEEF
IN
TOTAL
LIVESTOCK
IN
THE
REGION
.........................................................................
33
3.4
SUPPLY
AND
DEMAND
OF
SUBSTITUTE
AND
SUPPLEMENTAL
MEATS
....................................................................
34
3.5
GDP
PER
CAPITA
.....................................................................................................................................
35
3.6
SHARPLY
INCREASING
OF
IMPORTED
LIVE
CATTLE
FROM
AUSTRALIA
....................................................................
35
4
CONCLUSIONS:
....................................................................................................................................
36
5
APPENDIX:
..........................................................................................................................................
37

4. 4
LIST
OF
TABLES:
Table
1:
Demand
for
beef
and
live
cattle
in
HCM
City
from
2004
to
2012
(tons)
...................
12
Table
2:
Balance
of
self-­‐supply
and
demand
for
beef
in
HCMC
from
2004
to
2012
(thousand
tons)
........................................................................................................................................
18
Table
3:
Value
of
imported
live
cattle
in
Vietnam
2008
-­‐
2013
(thousands
USD)
..................
24
Table
4:
Value
of
imported
frozen
beef
in
Vietnam
2008
-­‐
2013
(USD)
.................................
25
Table
5:
Value
of
imported
fresh
beef
in
Vietnam
2008
-­‐
2013
(USD)
...................................
27
Table
6:
Supply
and
demand
of
meats
in
the
whole
country
in
2010
(tons)
.........................
34

5. 5
LIST
OF
FIGURES:
Figure
1:
HCMC
population
and
growth
rate
from
2004
-­‐
2012
..............................................
8
Figure
2:
Annual
income
per
capita
in
HCMC
and
Vietnam
from
2004
to
2012
(USD)
.............
9
Figure
3:
Annual
beef
consumption
per
capita
in
2008
and
2010
(kg)
...................................
10
Figure
4:
Annual
beef
consumption
per
capita
in
HCMC,
Hanoi
and
Vietnam
(2004
-­‐2010)
(kg)
..........................................................................................................................................
10
Figure
5:
Annual
consumption
per
capita
of
chicken,
beef
and
pork
in
HCMC
(2004
-­‐2010)
(kg)
..........................................................................................................................................
11
Figure
6:
Beef
consumption
per
capita
in
5
HCMC
income
groups
from
2004
-­‐
2010
............
12
Figure
7:
The
number
of
cattle
heads
in
HCMC
from
1996
to
2012
(thousand)
.....................
14
Figure
8:
Structure
of
cattle
herds
in
HCMC
from
2001
to
2012
(thousand
heads)
...............
15
Figure
9:
Weight
of
slaughtered
cows
in
HCMC
in
2001-­‐2012
(kg/head)
...............................
17
Figure
10:
Total
output
of
slaughtered
cows
in
HCMC
in
1996-­‐2012
(thousand
tons)
..........
17
Figure
11:
Total
supply
of
live
cattle
in
HCMC
and
neighboring
provinces
(tons/year)
.........
18
Figure
12:
Volume
of
live
cattle/buffalo
slaughtered
in
neighboring
provinces
and
destined
to
HCMC’s
beef
market
in
2010
..............................................................................................
20
Figure
13:
Volume
and
origin
of
live
cattle/buffalo
slaughtered
in
HCMC
in
2010
...............
21
Figure
14:
Beef
production
of
some
neighboring
provinces
that
could
supply
for
HCMC
in
2012
(tons)
..............................................................................................................................
21
Figure
15:
Balance
of
supply
and
demand
for
beef
in
HCMC
and
whole
country
in
2010
(tons)
.......................................................................................................................................
22
Figure
16:
Value
of
imported
beef
and
live
cattle
in
Vietnam
2008-­‐2013
(millions
USD)
.....
23
Figure
17:
Value
of
imported
live
cattle
in
Vietnam
2008
-­‐
2013
(USD)
................................
24
Figure
18:
Monthly
value
of
imported
live
cattle
in
Vietnam
2008-­‐2013
(USD)
....................
25
Figure
19:
Monthly
value
of
imported
fozen
beef
in
Vietnam
2008-­‐2013
(USD)
..................
26
Figure
20:
Value
of
imported
fresh
beef
in
Vietnam
2008-­‐2013
(
USD)
................................
28
Figure
21:
Monthly
value
of
imported
fresh
beef
in
Vietnam
2008-­‐2013
(USD)
...................
28
Figure
22:
Value
of
imported
beef
from
Australia
2008-­‐2013
(USD)
.....................................
29
Figure
23:
Imported
live
cattle
from
Australia
in
2013
(USD)
..............................................
29
Figure
24:
Silverside
retail
price
in
HCMC
market
2008
-­‐
2013
(VND/kg)
...............................
31
Figure
25:
Comparing
retail
average
prices
for
beef
and
pork
in
HCMC
2008
-­‐2013
(VND/kg)

6. 6
................................................................................................................................................
32
Figure
26:
Growth
of
total
retail
sales
of
goods
and
services
in
Vietnam
2006-­‐2015
(%,
compared
with
the
previous
year)
.........................................................................................
32
Figure
27:
Proportion
of
live
cattle,
pig
and
and
chicken
in
HCMC
1996-­‐2012
(%)
...............
33
Figure
28:
Proportion
of
live
cattle,
pig
and
and
chicken
in
the
South
East
of
Vietnam
1996-­‐
2012
(%)
..................................................................................................................................
33
Figure
29:
Supply
and
demand
of
meats
in
2010
(tons)
........................................................
34

7. 7
GLOSSARY
OF
TERMS:
HCMC:
Ho
Chi
Minh
City
PPC:
Phnom
Penh
City
WTP:
Willingness-­‐To-­‐Pay
QCB:
Quality
Certified
Beef
GSO:
General
Statistics
Office
of
Vietnam
VHLSS
Vietnam
Household
Living
Standards
Survey
AgroMonitor
Vietnam
agricultural
market
analysis
company
GDVC
General
Department
of
Vietnam
Customs
MIT
Ministry
of
Industry
and
Trade
of
Vietnam
MARD
Ministry
of
Agriculture
and
Rural
Development
of
Vietnam
PRRS
Porcine
reproductive
and
respiratory
syndrome
(known
as
“blue
ear
disease”
in
Vietnam)
VND
Vietnam
Dong,
Vietnam’s
currency.
1
USD=20,090
VND
on
20/04/2014

8. 8
1 Demand
for
Beef
in
HCMC
Market
1.1 Demographic
characteristics
According
to
data
released
by
the
General
Statistics
Office
of
Vietnam
at
the
end
of
2012,
the
total
population
of
HCMC
was
about
7.75
million
people,
an
increase
of
2.2%
from
2011.
After
a
period
of
rapid
increase
in
population
with
growth
rate
about
3.37%
per
year
from
2005
to
2010,
the
population
growth
rate
of
Ho
Chi
Minh
City
from
2011
has
slowed
down
since
2011.
Figure
1:
HCMC
population
and
growth
rate
from
2004
-­‐
2012
Source:
General
Statistics
Office
of
Vietnam
With
a
population
density
of
3,666
people
per
km2
in
2012,
HCMC
continues
to
lead
the
country
in
this
criteria,
13.7
times
higher
than
the
country
density
and
1.78
times
higher
than
that
of
Hanoi.
During
the
period
2002-­‐2012,
data
from
GSO_VN
shows
that
the
annual
income
per
capita
in
HCMC
was
increasing
rapidly
and
it
is
much
higher
than
the
national
average.
3.42
3.72
4.05
3.74
3.28
3.60
2.53
1.94
2.18
-­‐
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Population
(thousand
people)
Growth
rate
(%)

9. 9
Figure
2:
Annual
income
per
capita
in
HCMC
and
Vietnam
from
2004
to
2012
(USD)
Source:
General
Statistics
Office
of
Vietnam
In
2012,
annual
per
capita
income
in
HCMC
was
USD2,269
which
is
the
highest
income
compared
with
other
cities/provinces
in
the
country
and
almost
2
times
higher
than
the
national
average
of
USD1,150.
1.2 Annual
beef
consumption
per
capita
in
HCMC
Annual
meat
consumption
per
capita
is
extracted
from
Vietnam
Household
Living
Standard
Survey
(VHLSS)
in
2004
,
2006
,
2008
and
2010.
Data
on
beef
demand
in
2012
will
be
roughly
calculated
using
the
amount
of
beef
consumption
per
capita
in
2010.
The
data
is
intended
to
be
updated
in
June
2014
.
According
to
calculations
from
the
VHLSS
data,
HCMC
continued
to
be
a
city
that
had
the
2nd
highest
annual
beef
consumption
per
capita,
reaching
3.46
kg/person/year,
second
to
Ha
Noi
(3.92
kg/person/year),
and
2.1
times
higher
than
the
national
average
(1.63
kg/person/year).
It
is
noted
that
beef
is
not
a
really
popular
meat
in
the
region,
one
of
the
main
reasons
is
because
beef
is
the
most
expensive
meat,
far
more
expensive
than
pork
and
poultry.
In
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
873
1,109
1,586
1,685
2,269
1,150
580
795
1,145
1,273
1,771
HCMC
Vietnam
Vietnam
GDP
per
capita

10. 10
traditional,
Vietnamese
consume
much
more
pork
and
poultry
meat
than
beef
in
their
daily
diet.
Figure
3:
Annual
beef
consumption
per
capita
in
2008
and
2010
(kg)
Source:
Calculated
from
VHLSS
Data
(2008
and
2010)
Compared
to
other
provinces
in
the
Southeast
Region,
the
beef
consumption
per
capita
in
HCMC
is
also
substantially
larger.
Figure
4:
Annual
beef
consumption
per
capita
in
HCMC,
Hanoi
and
Vietnam
(2004
-­‐2010)
(kg)
Source:
Calculated
from
VHLSS
Data
(2004,
2006,
2008
and
2010)
4.81
3.66
1.18
3.53
2.21
1.30
3.92
3.46
1.57
2.40
2.89
1.63
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Ha
Noi
City
HCM
City
Dong
Nai
Province
Binh
Duong
Province
Ba
Ria
Province
Vietnam
2008
2010
-­‐
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
HCMC
Hanoi
Vietnam
2004
2006
2008
2010

11. 11
As
can
be
seen
from
the
graph,
beef
consumption
per
capita
in
the
country
generally
tends
to
increase
,
however
in
2010,
in
2
cities
that
had
largest
beef
consumption
in
Vietnam,
HCMC
and
Hanoi,
it
declined.
This
can
be
attributed
to
the
economic
downturn
which
leads
to
the
reduce
of
consumer
purchasing
power
in
2010
To
see
the
picture
of
demand
for
beef
in
HCMC,
we
will
consider
meat
consumption
in
general
In
Vietnam,
as
it
is
mentioned
before,
meat
consumption
is
dominated
by
pork
(69
percent),
followed
by
poultry
(17
percent)
and
beef
(14
percent).
Beef
is
the
meat
which
has
the
highest
retail
price.
However,
compared
to
2004,
the
consumption
gaps
between
beef
and
pork
and
between
beef
and
poultry
in
HCMC
in
2010
tend
to
narrow.
Figure
5:
Annual
consumption
per
capita
of
chicken,
beef
and
pork
in
HCMC
(2004
-­‐2010)
(kg)
Source:
Calculated
from
VHLSS
Data
(2004,
2006,
2008
and
2010)
In
2008,
the
reason
why
chicken
consumption
increased
sharply
relatively
to
the
other
two
kind
of
meats
is
the
meat
import
tax
were
cut
down,
even
lower
than
the
committed
tax
rate
previously
announced
when
Vietnam
joined
the
WTO.
This
makes
cheap
chicken
was
massively
imported
into
Vietnam
from
neighboring
countries
Into
2010,
while
per
capita
consumption
of
chicken
and
pork
are
much
lower
than
in
2008,
the
beef
consumption
remains
relatively
stable.
It
looks
like
the
pattern
of
meat
-­‐
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Beef
Chicken
Pork
2004
2006
2008
2010

12. 12
consumption
slowly
shifts
toward
consuming
less
pork
and
chicken
while
more
beef
is
needed
As
can
be
seen
in
Figure
5,
comparing
with
pork
and
poultry
consumption
in
the
city,
beef
consumption
has
less
erratic
fluctuation.
1.3 Demand
for
beef
and
live
cattle
in
HCMC
Market
According
to
the
conversion
chart
suggested
by
the
General
Statistics
Office
of
Vietnam,
1
kg
of
live
cattle
is
equivalent
to
0.4
kg
of
beef
cut.
With
the
above
information
on
per
capita
consumption
in
HCMC,
we
can
calculate
the
demand
for
beef
and
live
cattle
in
HCMC
market:
Table
1:
Demand
for
beef
and
live
cattle
in
HCM
City
from
2004
to
2012
(tons)
Year
Population
(thousand)
Beef
consumption
per
capita
(kg)
Total
demand
for
beef
(tons)
Total
demand
for
live
cattle
(tons)
Growth
rate
2004
6,007.60
2.21
13,276.80
29,673.00
2006
6,483.10
3.14
20,356.93
47,931.00
61.5%
2008
6,946.10
3.66
25,422.73
60,496.00
26.2%
2010
7,378.00
3.46
25,527.88
63,980.00
5.8%
2012
7,681.70
3.46
26,578.68
66,446.71
3.9%
Source:
Calculated
from
VHLSS
Data
(2004,
2006,
2008
and
2010)
Table
1
indicates
that,
compared
with
2008,
beef
consumption
per
capita
in
HCMC
in
2010
decreases
about
0.2
kg/person.
However,
due
to
population
growth,
the
total
consumption
of
beef
has
increased
in
HCMC
in
2010,
reaching
about
25.6
thousand
tons,
1,000
tons
higher
than
in
2008
.
Provisional
figures
for
2012
using
2010
per
capita
consumption
has
reached
nearly
66.5
thousand
tons
of
live
cattle.
Analysis
beef
demand
in
HCMC
market
of
5
consumer
groups
by
differentiated
by
income-­‐
level
Figure
6:
Beef
consumption
per
capita
in
HCMC
of
5
consumer
groups
2004
-­‐
2010

13. 13
Source:
Calculated
from
VHLSS
Data
(2004,
2006,
2008
and
2010)
Please
note
that
consumers
are
grouped
according
to
five
quintiles
of
national
income
per
capita
and
because
there
are
no
people
in
HCMC
who
are
in
the
lowest
income
quintile
included
in
the
VHLSS
survey,
the
plot
for
the
lowest
income
quintile
is
always
equal
to
0
and
not
relevant
in
the
graph.
Analysis
of
annual
beef
consumption
per
capita
in
HCMC
under
5
income
quintiles
shows
that
the
highest
income
group
(top
20%)
is
the
group
with
the
most
beef
consumption,
far
more
than
the
high
income
group
(next
20%).
However,
beef
consumption
of
middle-­‐
income
quintile
and
high
income
quintile
also
increase
a
lot
in
recent
years.
We
can
expect
that
the
increase
in
per
capita
income,
especially
the
rapid
increase
of
the
middle
income
class
will
quickly
raise
beef
demand
in
Ho
Chi
Minh
City
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
2004
2006
2008
2010
Lowest
Low
Medium
High
Highest

14. 14
2 Beef
Supply
2.1 Cattle
raising
According
to
data
from
the
Ministry
of
Agriculture
and
Rural
Development
(MARD),
after
a
slight
decline
in
the
1996
-­‐
2000
period,
the
number
of
cattle
heads
in
Ho
Chi
Minh
City
had
increased
sharply
with
average
growth
rate
about
16.4%
per
year
in
the
period
2001
-­‐
2006.
However,
since
2007,
it
tends
to
remain
stable
at
around
100
-­‐
110
thousands
heads
with
no
significant
growth
as
in
the
previous
period.
By
the
end
of
2012,
the
statistics
shows
that
the
total
herd
of
cows
in
HCMC
reached
108.7
thousand
heads,
an
increase
of
2.6
times
compared
to
1996
and
1.35
times
compared
with
2005.
Figure
7:
The
number
of
cattle
heads
in
HCMC
from
1996
to
2012
(thousand)
Source:
Ministry
of
Agriculture
and
Rural
Development
(MARD)
Of
nearly
109
thousand
heads
in
2012,
the
number
of
dairy
cows
accounted
for
approximately
76.7%
(83.4
thousand
heads).
Thus
it
can
be
seen,
since
2007,
HCMC
mainly
develops
dairy
herds,
the
number
of
beef
cows
accounts
for
less
than
25%
of
total
heads.
Compared
with
2001,
in
terms
of
percentage
of
the
whole
livestocks,
the
dairy
herd
in
HCMC
tends
to
rise
and
beef
herd
tends
to
decrease
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0

15. 15
Figure
8:
Structure
of
cattle
herd
in
HCMC
from
2001
to
2012
(thousand
heads)
Source:
Ministry
of
Agriculture
and
Rural
Development
Dairy
herd
and
beef
cattle
farms
in
HCMC
are
located
primarily
in
suburban
areas
where
there
are
large
areas
of
agricultural
land
which
is
suitable
for
cattle.
In
particular,
Cu
Chi
and
Hoc
Mon
district
are
the
two
main
cattle
places
with
about
40,000
heads
each
district.
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Dairy
cow
Beef
cow

16. 16
Source:
Atlas
of
agriculture,
2007.
Although
the
number
of
beef
cows
in
HCMC
tends
to
decrease
in
recent
years
but
beef
production
tends
to
increase
due
to
the
increased
weight
of
slaughtered
cattle.

17. 17
Figure
9:
Weight
of
slaughtered
cattle
in
HCMC
in
2001-­‐2012
(kg/head)
Source:
Calculated
from
data
provided
by
MARD.
From
the
average
of
201.6
kg/head
in
2001,
slaughtered
cow
weight
increased
to
the
average
of
343.4
kg/head
in
2012.
Thus,
although
the
number
of
cattle
heads
raising
in
HCMC
had
lowered
since
2010
but
beef
production
has
increased
slightly
in
the
market.
Figure
10:
Total
output
of
slaughtered
cows
in
HCMC
in
1996-­‐2012
(thousand
tons)
Source:
Calculated
from
data
provided
by
MARD.
Figures
show
that
in
2012
total
of
slaughtered
cows
in
HCMC
reached
8.7
thousand
tons,
an
increase
of
8.2%
compared
with
2011
and
150%
compared
with
2005.
2.2 The
balance
of
supply
and
demand
for
beef
With
8.7
thousand
tons
of
beef
from
the
local
ranches
in
2012,
the
self-­‐supply
of
beef
in
HCMC
was
obviously
deficient;
it
only
met
about
13%
of
the
demand.
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0

18. 18
Table
2:
Balance
of
self-­‐supply
and
demand
for
beef
in
HCMC
from
2004
to
2012
(tons)
Year
Beef
demand
live
cattle
demand
Live
cattle
self-­‐suply
Gap
Self-­‐suply/
demand
2004
13,277
29,673
4,396
25,277
14.81%
2006
20,357
47,931
6,135
41,796
12.80%
2008
25,423
60,496
6,055
54,441
10.01%
2010
25,528
63,980
7,815
56,165
12.21%
2012
26,579
66,447
8,687
57,760
13.07%
Table
2
shows
that
the
self-­‐supply
for
beef
from
locally
raised
cattle
only
meet
10%
of
the
demand
for
beef
in
HCMC
in
2008,
13%
in
2012.
Consequently,
to
clear
this
very
large
shortage,
the
additional
beef
supply
for
HCMC
originates
from
two
main
channels:
• Local
live
cattle
“imported”
from
the
neighboring
areas:
as
the
South
East
provinces,
the
Mekong
Delta
region
including
from
South-­‐East
Cambodia,
even
from
the
central
highland
and
northern
provinces
• Imports
of
live
cattle,
fresh
beef
and
frozen
beef
from
many
countries
around
the
world
2.3 Beef
supply
from
neighboring
areas
including
Cambodia:
Beef
imported
from
the
neighboring
provinces
of
HCMC
as
:
Dong
Nai
,
Binh
Duong
,
An
Giang,
Kien
Giang
,
Ben
Tre
...
According
to
the
GSO,
number
of
herbs
in
these
neighboring
provinces
from
1996
to
2012
as
follows:
Figure
11:
Total
supply
of
live
cattle
in
HCMC
and
neighboring
provinces
(tons/year)

19. 19
Source:
General
Statistics
Office
of
Vietnam
The
beef
supply
from
neighboring
areas
is
going
through
two
ways:
• Import
live
cattle
from
the
neighboring
provinces
and
then
these
cattle
will
be
slaughtered
in
HCMC.
• Import
beef
from
slaughterhouses
in
neighboring
provinces.
Note:
the
number
of
cattle
from
GSO
data
is
for
reference
only,
because
the
number
and
quality
of
live
cattle
farming
in
VN
is
not
exactly
surveyed
as
well
as
the
number
of
live
cattle
smuggling
along
the
border
from
Cambodia
is
almost
under
no
control.
After
cattle
are
smuggled
to
Mekong
delta
provinces
from
Cambodia,
they
are
included
in
the
local
herds
and
considered
as
local
cattle.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
HCMC
neighboring
provinces

20. 20
Figure
12:
Volume
of
live
cattle/buffalo
slaughtered
in
neighboring
provinces
and
destined
to
HCMC’s
beef
market
in
2010
Source:
Report
from
ACIAR
project
AH/2006/025
The
figures
show
that
Long
An,
Tay
Ninh
and
Dong
Nai
provinces
slaughter
74
percent
of
all
cattle
and
buffaloes
destined
to
HCMC
market.
As
mentioned
previously,
beef
consumed
in
HCMC
is
also
procured
from
local
slaughterhouses.
As
such
the
meat
originates
to
some
extent
from
local
animals
(kept
in
HCMC)
but
to
a
greater
extent
from
animals
“imported”
live
from
neighboring
provinces.
The
following
figure
shows
the
provenance
of
live
cattle/buffalo
traded
live
into
HCMC
and
slaughtered
at
slaughterhouses
within
the
city
in
2010.
120,909
68,076
36,950
30,860
20,361
15,471
11,172
60
-­‐
40,000
80,000
120,000
Long
An
Tay
Ninh
Dong
Nai
Tien
Giang
Binh
Duong
Dong
Nai
Ben
Tre
Other
provinces
Heads
Provinces
of
origin
Volume (in heads) of live cattle/buffaloes slaughtered in
neighbouring provinces and sold to HCMC in 2010
Heads

21. 21
Figure
13:
Volume
and
origin
of
live
cattle/buffalo
slaughtered
in
HCMC
in
2010
Source:
Report
from
ACIAR
project
AH/2006/025
The
figures
show
that
14
457
heads
were
slaughtered
in
HCMC
in
2010.
A
minority
(18
percent)
originate
from
HCMC,
while
the
bulk
(62
percent)
are
traded
from
An
Giang
and
Kien
Giang
provinces.
The
remaining
20
percent
are
procured
from
other
southern
provinces.
HCMC
Department
of
Animal
Health
confirms
that
An
Giang
and
Kien
Giang
provinces
are
important
supply
sources
of
live
cattle/buffalo
in
southern
Vietnam.
It
should
be
noted
that
An
Giang
and
Kien
Giang
are
also
the
two
provinces
which
receive
most
of
import
cattle
from
Cambodia.
Figure
14:
Beef
production
of
some
neighboring
provinces
that
could
supply
to
HCMC
markets
in
2012
(tons)
Source:
MARD
-­‐
Ministry
of
Agriculture
and
Rural
Development.
5,579
3,321
2,629
1,520
637
231
214
153
90
56
27
-­‐
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
An
Giang
HCMC
Dong
Thap
Long
An
Phu
Yen
Binh
Duong
Heads
Provinces
Volume and provenance of live cattle & buffaloes
traded for slaughter in HCMC in 2010
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Dac
Lac
Lam
Dong
Tay
Ninh
Dong
Nai
Ba
Ria
Vung
Tau
HCMC
Tien
Giang
Vinh
Long

22. 22
2.4 Imported
beef:
In
addition
to
meet
the
demand
for
beef
of
the
city
residents,
every
year
a
large
amount
of
fresh
beef,
frozen/chilled
and
live
cattle
are
imported
for
supplying
to
the
city
markets.
If
we
use
the
number
of
beef
consumption
per
capita
according
to
the
latest
available
figures
in
2010
which
is
1.63
kg/person/year,
total
beef
consumption
(as
live
cattle)
of
the
country
is
about
354
thousand
tons.
HCMC
beef
consumption
which
is
64
thousand
tons
is
about
18%
of
the
whole
country
beef
consumption.
It
is
known
that
the
domestic
beef
supply
is
not
enough
to
meet
demand
and
this
imbalance
is
shown
to
concentrate
mostly
in
HCMC,
the
most
populous
city.
Figure
15:
Balance
of
supply
and
demand
for
beef
in
HCMC
and
whole
country
in
2010
(tons)
Source:
Calculated
from
data
provided
by
GSO.
According
to
figures
provided
by
the
General
Department
of
Vietnam
Customs,
in
2013,
Vietnam
spent
nearly
$
140
million
to
import
live
cattle
and
beef
from
different
foreign
countries.
This
is
more
than
double
compared
with
the
imported
value
in
2012
and
it
increases
by
nearly
5
times
compared
with
that
of
2008.
In
particular,
imported
live
cattle
tends
to
increase
sharply
as
its
value
in
2013
increased
by
more
than
4
times
compared
with
the
value
in
2012
and
by
20
times
compared
with
that
value
in
2009.
Imported
beef
and
live
cattle
are
mainly
used
to
supply
to
supermarkets
in
big
cities
like
HCMC
and
Hanoi.
Note:
only
data
in
total
value
in
USD
of
imported
beef
is
available.
We
don’t
have
data
in
tons
of
imported
beef
except
for
beef
imported
from
Australia
-­‐
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
HCMC
Vietnam
Demand
Supply

23. 23
Figure
16:
Value
of
imported
beef
and
live
cattle
in
Vietnam
2008-­‐2013
(millions
USD)
Source:
Data
provided
by
AgroMonitor
The
value
of
imported
beef
and
live
cattle
keep
increasing
every
year.
The
imported
value
of
live
cattle
is
significantly
lifted
up
in
2013.
The
imported
live
cattle
value
in
2013
is
about
four
folds
of
that
value
in
2012,
this
makes
the
imported
live
cattle
accounts
for
60%
of
total
import
value
of
beef
and
live
cattle
in
2012.
It
is
also
roughly
equivalent
to
1.5
value
of
imported
frozen
beef
2.4.1 Imported
live
cattle:
Live
cattle
is
imported
officially
from
Australia,
Laos,
Netherlands,
Thaland,
Italia,
Cambodia
and
South
Korea.
Most
of
live
cattle
imported
from
Cambodia
is
unaccounted
for
in
the
General
Department
of
Vietnam
Custom
data.
They
are
considered
as
local
cattle
once
cross
the
boder.
-­‐
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Fresh
Beef
Frozen
Beef
Live
Cattle

24. 24
Table
3:
Value
of
imported
live
cattle
in
Vietnam
2008
-­‐
2013
(thousands
USD)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total
%
Australia
1,206.8
3,989.7
1,744.5
3,987.1
60,961.3
71,889.5
50.5%
Laos
17.2
21.2
38.4
0.0%
Netherlands
1,679.6
1,679.6
1.2%
New
Zealand
10,674.2
11,143.3
6,297.7
28,115.2
19.7%
Thailand
11.1
2,642.8
7,849.0
2,083.6
9,373.2
18,557.4
40,517.1
28.4%
Italia
122.9
122.9
0.1%
Cambodia
16.2
16.2
0.0%
South
Korea
81.0
81.0
0.1%
Total
11
4,054
24,210
14,971
19,695
79,519
142,460
100%
Growth
Rate
36418%
497%
-­‐38%
32%
304%
Source:
General
Department
of
Vietnam
Customs
Table
3
shows
that
live
cattle
is
imported
to
Vietnam
with
stable
suppliers
from
Australia,
New
Zealand
and
Thailand.
The
major
change
of
this
business
happens
in
2013
when
Vietnam
only
officially
imports
live
cattle
from
Australia
and
Thailand
in
which
live
cattle
from
Australis
accounted
for
76.7%
of
total
imported
value.
The
jump
in
2013
of
live
cattle
imported
from
Australia
makes
the
import
value
from
Australia
accounts
for
50%
of
total
import
value
in
the
last
five
years.
Figure
17:
Value
of
imported
live
cattle
in
Vietnam
2008
-­‐
2013
(USD)
Source:
General
Department
of
Vietnam
Customs
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
70000000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

25. 25
Figure
18:
Monthly
value
of
imported
live
cattle
in
Vietnam
2008-­‐2013
(USD)
Source:
General
Department
of
Vietnam
Customs
The
live
cattle
imported
in
2013
increased
significantly
starting
in
April.
It
decreased
in
September
because
of
the
new
custom
regulation
implemented
and
then
keep
increasing
sharply
again
in
the
last
months
of
2013
The
price
of
live
cattle
imported
from
Australia
in
2013
fluctuates
in
the
range
2.27
to
2.42
USD/kg.
Using
these
prices,
we
could
indicate
that
Vietnam
imports
about
30
thousand
tons
live
cattle
from
Australia
in
2013
2.4.2 Imported
frozen
beef:
Frozen
meat
is
the
traditional
imported
meat
for
food
market
in
Vietnam
Table
4:
Value
of
imported
frozen
beef
in
Vietnam
2008
-­‐
2013
(USD)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
%
Argentina
481,916
255,061
193,133
81,595
33,852
0.55%
Australia
1,715,423
1,678,146
2,922,238
4,503,323
9,309,815
8,616,667
15.17%
Austria
46,313
20,096
0.04%
Brazil
42,427
0.02%
Canada
57,424
179,639
151,989
116,872
73,958
0.31%
Chile
1,416
0.00%
Egypt
77,000
0.04%
France
4,796
1,438
457
0.00%
Hong
Kong
731,782
0.39%
India
18,198,357
13,501,698
13,584,041
20,341,499
26,264,010
30,083,624
64.36%
Indonesia
193,519
159,600
0.19%
Japan
14,212
0.01%
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
18000000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

26. 26
Sooth
Korea
140,872
102,945
0.13%
Malaysia
731,894
0.39%
Mexico
61,594
0.03%
Netherlands
13,424
0.01%
New
Zealand
1,017,366
170,519
369,360
506,079
660,820
973,324
1.95%
Norway
3,834
1,688
0.00%
Paraguay
82,566
89,628
0.09%
Singapore
112,766
349
2,976
7,123
0.07%
USA
2,251,068
1,158,088
2,586,853
4,353,015
7,427,296
12,971,750
16.22%
Uruguay
91,208
0.05%
Total
25,044,607
17,181,538
19,978,981
30,561,381
43,817,494
52,941,743
100.00%
Source:
General
Department
of
Vietnam
Customs
Based
on
data
provided
by
General
Department
of
Vietnam
Customs,
from
2008
to
2013,
frozen
beef
is
imported
from
23
countries.
The
largest
source
is
from
India
(64.36%)
following
by
USA
(16.22%)
and
Australia
(15.11%).
In
Vietnamese
markets,
consumers
have
high
regards
to
imported
beef
and
accept
to
pay
much
more
for
imported
beef
from
Japan,
USA
and
Australia.
Imported
beef
from
the
rest
countries
is
considered
as
local
beef
by
consumers
and
they
pay
the
same
price
as
the
price
of
local
beef.
Indeed,
only
imported
beef
from
Japan,
USA
and
Australia
is
labeled
in
supermarkets.
All
other
imported
beefs
are
unlabeled
and
treated
as
local
beefs
Figure
19:
Monthly
value
of
imported
fozen
beef
in
Vietnam
2008-­‐2013
(USD)
Source:
General
Department
of
Vietnam
Customs
In
general,
frozen
beef
is
imported
more
during
the
last
months
of
the
year
to
meet
the
high
demand
of
the
festival
season.
This
does
not
happen
in
2013,
imported
beef
reduced
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

27. 27
substantially
during
the
last
three
months.
This
can
be
explained
by
the
sharply
increase
in
live
cattle
imported
from
Australia
in
the
same
months
2.4.3 Imported
fresh
beef:
Because
of
the
complicated
reservation
process
and
time
constraint,
the
imported
fresh
beef
accounts
for
the
least
portion
in
the
total
import
value.
Fresh
beef
imported
from
Australia,
New
Zealand
and
USA
is
sold
with
much
higher
price
than
the
price
of
domestic
beef
(2
to
3
folds)
Table
5:
Value
of
imported
fresh
beef
in
Vietnam
2008
-­‐
2013
(USD)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Argentina
186,787
Australia
2,326,519
2,579,369
3,173,239
3,482,410
3,823,334
4,980,119
Austria
22,791
26,132
4,424
Canada
12,232
11,919
19,429
France
5,431
HongKong
34,685
India
193,712
936,086
47,088
46,970
Japan
15,755
South
Korea
41,486
New
Zealand
664,313
367,084
765,385
923,684
970,842
1,171,176
Norway
19,721
7,828
4,507
18,001
USA
91,238
133,233
136,524
220,411
301,061
483,290
Total
3,538,162
3,110,304
5,041,872
4,685,825
5,213,614
6,658,437
Source:
General
Department
of
Vietnam
Customs
In
2013,
total
import
value
of
fresh
beef
is
more
than
$6.5
millions
in
which
the
beef
from
Australia
accounts
for
$5
millions
and
beef
from
New
Zealand
is
$1.2
millions.
The
total
import
value
of
fresh
beef
fluctuate
every
year
but
it
has
a
positive
trend
overall.

28. 28
Figure
20:
Value
of
imported
fresh
beef
in
Vietnam
2008-­‐2013
(
USD)
Source:
General
Department
of
Vietnam
Customs
Figure
21:
Monthly
value
of
imported
fresh
beef
in
Vietnam
2008-­‐2013
(USD)
Source:
General
Department
of
Vietnam
Customs
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

29. 29
2.5 Imported
beef
and
live
cattle
from
Australia:
As
analysis
in
section
2.4,
Australia
is
the
largest
and
fastest
growth
import
market
of
Vietnam
in
all
three
kinds
of
meat:
live
cattle,
frozen
beef
and
fresh
beef
Figure
22:
Value
of
imported
beef
from
Australia
2008-­‐2013
(USD)
Source:
General
Department
of
Vietnam
Customs
Australia
live
cattle
exported
to
Vietnam
have
increased
about
20-­‐fold
during
the
period
2012-­‐2013,
from
3.500
to
66.951
live
cattle.
Imported
value
correspondingly
increases
from
$4
millions
to
$61
millions.
Recent
data
released
from
Ministry
of
Trade
signals
that
this
growth
is
not
slowing
down
as
there
were
40.000
cattle
have
been
exported
to
Vietnam
from
Australia
in
the
first
3
months
of
2014
Figure
23:
Imported
live
cattle
from
Australia
in
2013
(USD)
In
early
March
2014,
a
government
and
business
delegation,
leaded
by
the
Minister
of
Northern
Australia
Industries
Van
Holthe,
visited
the
cattle
fattening
and
slaughtering
places
in
Ho
Chi
Minh
City
and
Hai
Phong
City.
The
CEO
of
Livestock
Exporters
Association
of
-­‐
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Fresh
Beef
Frozen
Beef
Live
Canle
-­‐
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

30. 30
Northern
Australia,
Ben
Hindle
said
that
Vietnamese
importing
companies
have
invested
heavily
in
infrastructure
to
meet
the
requirements
by
Australian
live
cattle
exporters,
especially
on
ranch
facilities,
fattening
areas
and
slaughtering
places
It
is
expected
that
in
2014,
Vietnam
will
import
150.000
live
cattle
from
Australia,
surpasses
Israel
(98.000
cattle
in
2013)
to
become
the
second
largest
export
market
for
Australia
live
cattle,
second
only
to
Indonesia
(450.000
cattle
in
2013).
Beef
processed
from
live
cattle
imported
from
Australia
in
future
could
be
provided
for
Phnom
Penh
supermarkets.
This
will
have
a
significant
impact
on
the
market
for
beef
in
both
HCMC
and
Phnom
Penh.
In
near
future,
we
expect
beef
from
Australia
live
cattle
will
be
considered
by
consumers
in
HCMC
as
local
beef
like
beef
from
other
countries
such
as
India,
Urugoay,
Argentina,
…
The
price
for
Australive
live
catte-­‐beef
will
be
the
same
as
the
domestic
beef
supplied
from
local
provinces
as
well
as
from
Cambodia.
This
new
changes
in
market
places
farmers
who
are
raising
cattle
in
Vietnam
and
Cambodia
in
a
tougher
competitive
condition.
The
domestic
beef
price
is
expected
to
go
down
slightly
in
2014.
It
is
agreed
that
the
reason
live
cattle
imported
from
Australia
has
reached
a
large
number
in
a
short
period
is
due
to
the
low
import
tax
rate
on
live
cattle
(5%)
compared
with
tax
rate
on
frozen
meat
(10%).
Rather
than
import
frozen
meat,
many
businesses
are
switching
swiftly
to
import
live
catte
and
set
up
slaughterhouses
to
process
beef
for
domestic
demand.

31. 31
3 The
factors
affecting
supply
and
demand
for
beef
3.1 Price:
Because
the
supply
does
not
meet
demand
for
beef
so
that
the
retail
price
for
beef
keeps
increasing
continuously
starting
in
2008.
By
the
end
of
2013,
retail
price
for
silverside
climbed
to
nearly
240,000
VND/kg,
an
increase
of
2.5
times
compared
with
the
price
set
in
early
2008.
Especially
in
the
3
years
from
2011
to
2013,
beef
price
in
HCMC
goes
up
quickly
as
the
supply
could
not
keep
up
with
the
demand
and
the
gap
between
them
is
getting
bigger.
Figure
24:
Silverside
retail
price
in
HCMC
market
2008
-­‐
2013
(VND/kg)
Source:
Data
provided
by
AgroMonitor
3.2 Animal
health
information
and
consumer
purchasing
power
Considering
the
retail
market
for
beef
and
pork
in
the
city,
it
shows
that
the
pork
retail
price
reduced
significantly
in
2013
and
in
the
first
half
of
2013
due
to
the
PRRS
virus
disease
(know
as
“blue
ear
disease”
in
Vietnam)
in
pig
and
the
decline
in
consumer
purchasing
power
due
to
the
economic
downturn.
The
price
of
beef
remains
bullish.
The
explanation
for
this
phenomenom
is
that
the
supply
for
beef
from
domestic
and
foreign
sources
still
do
not
meet
with
the
quick
increase
of
the
demand
for
beef.
40000
90000
140000
190000
240000
290000
1
4
7
10
1
4
7
10
2
5
8
11
2
5
8
11
2
5
8
11
2
5
8
11
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

32. 32
Figure
25:
Comparing
retail
average
prices
for
beef
and
pork
in
HCMC
2008
-­‐2013
(VND/kg)
Source:
Data
provided
by
AgroMonitor
However,
because
of
the
quick
deline
in
the
consumer
purchasing
power
and
the
supplemental
imports,
especially
with
live
cattle
imported
from
Australia,
the
rise
in
beef
price
is
slowing
down
in
2013.
According
to
data
provided
by
Ministry
of
Industry
and
Trade,
the
growth
of
total
retail
sales
and
consumer
service
revenue
in
2013
fells
to
the
lowest
level
since
2006,
reaching
12.6%
Figure
26:
Growth
of
total
retail
sales
of
goods
and
services
in
Vietnam
2006-­‐2015
(%,
compared
with
the
previous
year)
Source:
Ministry
of
Industry
and
Trade
of
Vietnam
70000
90000
110000
130000
150000
170000
190000
210000
230000
250000
270000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
130000
1
4
7
10
1
4
7
10
2
5
8
11
2
5
8
11
2
5
8
11
2
5
8
11
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Pork
Beef
24.1
25.2
35.0
22.9
30.4
23.8
16.4
12.6
14.7
18.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
(DB)
2015
(DB)

33. 33
3.3 The
proportion
of
beef
in
total
livestock
in
the
region
According
to
figures
from
the
General
Statistics
Office
and
the
Ministry
of
Agriculture
and
Rural
Development,
the
proportion
of
beef
production
in
total
livestock
meat
(including
beef,
pork
and
poultry)
is
about
12-­‐13%
in
HCMC
and
about
8
-­‐
9%
for
the
Southeast
region.
In
recent
years,
while
the
proportion
of
poultry
meat
and
pork
tends
to
increase
the
proportion
of
beef
has
remained
relatively
stable.
Figure
27:
Proportion
of
live
cattle,
pig
and
and
chicken
in
HCMC
1996-­‐2012
(%)
Source:
GSO
and
Ministry
of
Agriculture
and
Rural
Development
Figure
28:
Proportion
of
live
cattle,
pig
and
and
chicken
in
the
South
East
of
Vietnam
1996-­‐2012
(%)
Source:
GSO
and
Ministry
of
Agriculture
and
Rural
Development
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Chicken
Pork
Beef
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Chicken
Beef
Pork

34. 34
3.4 Supply
and
demand
of
substitute
and
supplemental
meats
By
calculations
from
VHLSS
2010,
the
average
consumption
of
pork,
beef,
chicken
per
capita
in
the
whole
country
reached
13.54
kg,
1.63kg
and
5.51
kg
respectively
.
Multiply
these
number
by
the
population
of
the
country
in
2010
and
convert
into
live
weight,
we
then
have
the
numbers
in
the
table
below:
Table
6:
Supply
and
demand
of
meats
in
the
country
in
2010
(tons)
Beef
Chicken
Pork
Demand
354,250
563,527
1,961,777
Supply
285,500
522,834
3,216,900
Source:
Calculated
from
VHLSS
2010
As
we
could
see
from
the
table,
while
the
supply
of
beef
and
chicken
are
not
enough
to
meet
domestic
demand,
supply
of
pork
is
excess
demand
by
a
large
amount
which
is
more
than
1
million
tons
/
year
(the
demand
here
is
not
including
the
meat
used
for
food
processing
industries
such
as
sausage,
ham,
rolls,
rolls,
candy
...).
Therefore,
every
year
Vietnam
exports
a
large
number
of
live
pigs
to
China
through
the
northern
border
or
exports
fresh/frozen/
chilled
pork
to
some
Asian
markets
such
as
Hong
Kong,
Malaysia,
Singapore
...
Figure
29:
Supply
and
demand
of
meats
in
2010
(tons)
Source:
data
provided
by
AgroMonitor
-­‐
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Beef
Chicken
Pork
Demand
Supply

35. 35
3.5 GDP
per
capita
Per
capita
income
in
HCMC
has
been
going
up
relatively
fast,
roughly
round
8-­‐10%
per
year
during
the
last
12
years,
especially
the
20%
highest
income
group
is
getting
richer
considerably
fast.
This
leads
to
the
fact
that
the
consumption
of
a
more
expensive
meat
like
beef
has
increased
substantially.
3.6 Sharply
increasing
of
imported
live
cattle
from
Australia
Beef
demand
in
this
report
is
generally
calculated
based
on
the
beef
consumption
in
HCMC
before
2012
while
imported
beef
from
US,
Japan
and
Australia
were
sold
with
much
higher
price
compared
with
price
of
domestic
beef.
With
the
significantly
increasing
of
imported
live
cattle
from
Australia,
the
supply
is
raised
to
an
unexpected
high
level,
this
makes
Australian
beef
price
is
going
down
considerablely
to
approach
local
beef
price.
Vietnamese
consumers
are
very
happy
with
beef
that
processed
from
live
cattle
imported
from
Australia
and
the
demand
for
that
imported
live
cattle
is
going
up
quickly.
Beef
will
become
more
and
more
popular
meat
with
acceptable
price
in
HCMC
,
Mekong
region
and
also
Phnom
Penh
City.
The
demand
for
beef
is
expected
to
rise
in
those
regions.
In
the
next
phase
of
the
project,
we
could
invest
time
and
effort
to
study
about
the
impact
of
this
market
change
on
HCMC
and
Phnom
Penh
beef
market.

36. 36
4 CONCLUSIONS:
HCMC
is
the
most
populous
city
in
the
country,
it
also
has
a
high
population
density.
Along
with
the
rise
of
per
capita
income,
the
demand
for
beef
in
the
city
has
continued
to
increase.
Beef
supply
from
the
suburban
areas
as
well
as
from
neighboring
provinces
still
could
not
meet
the
demand
by
the
city
markets.
The
retail
price
for
beef
in
the
city
fluctuates
frequently
and
shows
a
clearly
positive
time
trend.
The
domestic
beef
supply
across
the
country
can
hardly
increase
due
to
the
limited
agriculture
land,
production
technology
and
grazing
condition.
The
imported
live
cattle
and
beef
is
considered
as
the
effective
supplemental
source
to
clear
the
beef
market
Vietnam
is
preparing
to
join
the
TPP
in
late
2014
and
CEPT/AFTA
in
2015
and
most
of
import
tariffs
are
expected
to
drop
to
0%
in
the
near
future.
Thus,
imports
of
beef
and
live
cattle
from
the
countries
in
those
trade
agreements
is
expected
to
rise
sharply,
including
Australia,
U.S,
Japan
(TPP)
and
Cambodia
,
Laos,
Thailand
(CEPT).
Vietnam
is
becoming
the
Australia’s
second
largest
export
market
for
live
cattle.
It
is
expected
that
live
cattle
import
from
Australia
will
keep
increasing
quickly
in
the
years
to
come.
This
will
change
the
picture
of
supply
and
demand
as
well
as
the
beef
consumer
behaviors
in
the
region.
Consumers
in
HCMC
and
Phnom
Penh
now
could
approach
to
beef
originates
from
Australia
with
acceptable
price
It
is
worth
to
invest
time
and
resource
to
investigate
the
impact
of
this
change
on
the
beef
market
in
HCMC
and
Phnom
Penh.

37. 37
5 Appendix:
Raw
data
is
collect
from
many
different
sources:
MARD,
GSO,
GDVC,
MIT,
VHLSS
2002,
2004,
2006,
2008,
2010
and
from
AgriMonitor
company.
We
also
collect
the
quarterly
meat
report
in
Vietnam
markets
2008-­‐2013