This document summarizes a presentation on the Horizon2020 Insurance project. It discusses using climate science to help the insurance sector. The project is demonstrating adding value from climate services in the Danube basin by modeling floods. It presents results on changing flood frequency from climate change. It also discusses modeling pluvial flooding in cities and supporting infrastructure investments. Other areas discussed include modeling tropical cyclones, forest fires, health impacts, and crop insurance solutions to enhance food security in Africa. The goal is to show how climate data and models can provide robust risk information to help insurers and policymakers.

1. Links between science and insurance -
The H2020 Insurance project within
Oasis LMF & Oasis HUB
November 13th, 2017
Fred Hattermann & Christoph Gornott

2. 2
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
H2020 Insurance – project background

3. 3
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Demonstrating the added value of climate services in the
Danube basin
• 19 Countries and 83 million people, 4 capitals
• 2002 floods in Germany, Austria, Czech Republic,
Hungary, Moldova, Switzerland, and Slovakia,
causing total damages of 16,5 billion Euro (3,400
billion insured losses) and 39 fatalities
• 2013 floods in Austria, Czech Republic, Germany,
Hungary, Poland, Switzerland, causing damages of
12,600 billion Euro (3,100 billion insured losses),
and 25 fatalities (NatCatSERVICE, Munich RE)
dailynewshungary

4. 4
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Future Danube: Model system

5. 5
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Big data -> condensed information
5
240,000 years of daily climate and hydrological data
~13,0000 river sections ~200,000 spatial units
Robust risk information
Considering
different
projections
into the
future

6. 6
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Climate change impact on flood frequency
Partner: PIK Potsdam

7. 7
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Selected results: Loss estimation
Spatially detailed or aggregated risk assessmentSpatially detailed or aggregated risk assessment
T0: EUR 744 Mio
T1: EUR 641 Mio
T2: EUR 281 Mio
Partner: GFZ Potsdam

8. 8
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Pluvial flooding (example: Vienna, 100-year event, current climate conditions)
8
Spatially detailed or aggregated risk assessment
T0: EUR 744 Mio
T1: EUR 641 Mio
T2: EUR 281 Mio
Also applied for
• Budapest
• Novi Sad
• Other cities
world wide
Partner: DTU Kopenhagen

9. 9
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
• Case study: Wastewater treatment plant
for Novi Sad, Serbia.
• Due to accession negotiation to EU
implementation of the Wastewater
directive is necessary in Serbia – requires
building of wastewater treatment plants.
Support for large scale investment and infrastructure and
climate resilience
Partner: UNS Novi Sad

10. 10
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Tropical Cyclones
• The Challenge: Tropical Cyclones (TC) kills typically 10,000 people and
causes $US 20Billion of Damages per year
• The Need: Estimates of seasonally and on decadal scales changes in TC
number, track and intensity
• Solution: New physics based stochastic model that can capture the full risk

11. 11
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Preliminary conclusions
• There is a growing interest and need in the public and
private sectors for climate informed decision making
• There is also a general understanding that there is already
a change in climate related risk
• Scientists and practitioners can learn from each other

12. 12
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Forest Demonstrator
Enhance RISKFP with new features for insurance
• Forest fires and storms are the two major damaging perils
• Involved insurance companies
• AON US Portland office
• Willis UK and Australian office
• High spatial resolution risk mapping of extreme fire weather with long term
historical weather data, seasonal forecasts and with the help of local experts
• Fire weather risk in the face of long-term climate change
• Assessment of economical impacts
• Direct and merchant costs
• Indirect costs (cost to recover, loss of tourism, biodiversity & ecological services)

13. 13
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
• Collection of health data and health statistics from Berlin and Potsdam (2005 – 2015)
• Collection of climate and air pollution data (2005 – 2015)
• Linking climate and health in a “health damage function”
Climate services for the health sector
The health damage function
Calculate impact of future climate change on patients
Calculate costs for health insurances (public and private)
Evaluate countermeasures, e.g. climatized patient rooms

14. 14
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Heat stress leads to more disease symptoms and
Health demonstrator
Disease symptoms of patients with a chronic lung disease in relation to temperature and humidity
Jehn et al.; From: Heat stress is associated with reduced health status in pulmonary
arterial hypertension: a prospective study cohort. Lung 2014; 192(4):619-24.

15. 15
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
• Stabilizing farmers’ incomes to cope with climate perils
• Most vulnerable people are smallholder farmers in Sub Saharan Africa
• Insurances to enhance food security and indemnify livelihoods
Examples
• India insures 20 million smallholders, which should be doubled by 2020
• Promising solutions also in Tanzania and neighboring countries
Challenges
• Insurance company must cope systematic risk
• Subsidies to make insurances affordable
• Coverage of the weather-related risks
• Management-related risks are uncovered
Crop insurance solutions
Agricultural demonstrator

16. 16
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Share of weather-related yield losses and premium costs
Agricultural demonstrator
Share of
Weather
[in%]
Only 27% of the yield variability
is attributable to weather
Within Tanzania, the range is 4 – 57%
Additional intervention are needed
141 million US$ p.a. of insurance
premiums’ cost could be saved in Tanzania
These are 72 US$ ha-1
The insurance costs are 71 million US$ p.a.
(45 US$ ha-1)

17. Thank you for your attention.
Please contact us at
H2020_Insurance@pik-potsdam.de

18. 18
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Relieving climate-induced migration pressure
through crop-insurances in Sub-Saharan Africa
Friday, 17 November 2017,
11h15 – 12h45
Bonn Zone, EU Pavilion, Tallinn
Panelists:
Koko Warner, UNFCCC
Gernot Laganda, World Food Programme (WFP)
Ekhosuehi Iyahen, African Risk Capacity (ARC)
Ulrich Hess, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)
Sophia Rottmann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Presenter:
Christoph Gornott, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Kira Vinke, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)