The document describes the Future Danube Model, which is a model chain used to simulate riverine and pluvial flood hazards and risks in the Danube basin under current and future climate conditions. The model chain includes regional climate models, a weather generator, hydrological and hydraulic models, and probabilistic flood loss models. It is used to generate flood hazard and risk maps, estimate how flood frequencies may change in the future, and calculate potential economic losses from flooding. The results are intended to help urban planners and the insurance industry assess and adapt to flood risks.

1. The Future Danube Model
Max Steinhausen, Kai Schröter, Stefan Lüdtke, Viktor Rözer, Heidi Kreibich
May, 9, 2019
CBA climate change adaptation workshop, Budapest
Michel Wortmann, Fred Hattermann
Martin Drews

2. 2
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
H2020 Insurance – project background

3. 3
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
OASIS LMF
Event
Hazard Vulnerability
Damage Bin
Dictionary
Vulnerability
Dictionary
Intensity Bin
Dictionary
Exposure
(Item)
Area Peril
Dictionary

4. 4
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
1. Catchment models are tools to assess river (fluvial) floods
2. Two flavours of floods:
1. River / fluvial
2. Precipitation / pluvial
3. Use cases
1. Utility companies need to protect their (new) infrastructure
2. Municipalities want to climate proof their flood defences
3. (Re)insurance companies want to know the probability of flooding for
a house or area
Why are models relevant for urban planners?

5. 5
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
CORDEX-
EU
IMAGE
• Multisite, multivariate
stochastic weather generator
• Imperial College London
SWIM
• Hydrological model
• PIK Potsdam
CaMa
Flood
• Hydraulic model
• PIK Potsdam
BN-
FLEMOps
• Probabilistic flood loss model
• GFZ Potsdam
• GCM-RCM climate
model simulations
MIKE
flood
Partners:
• OASIS LMF
• Genillard & Co
• Pannon Pro
• Uni. Novi Sad
• Insurance sector
• Pluvial flood model
for selected cities
• DTU Copenhagen
Model chain

6. 6
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Generation of stochastic meteorological event sets
• 4 regional climate
models
(CORDEX-EU)
• 2 climate scenarios
(RCP-4.5 & 8.5)
• Historical reference
climate (1971-2000),
current climate
(2006-35) and two
future periods (2020-
49, 2070-99)
2006-2035

7. 7
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
1. Fluvial flood
hazard
modelling

8. 8
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
CORDEX-
EU
IMAGE
• Multisite, multivariate
stochastic weather generator
• Imperial College London
SWIM
• Hydrological model
• PIK Potsdam
CaMa
Flood
• Hydraulic model
• PIK Potsdam
BN-
FLEMOps
• Probabilistic flood loss model
• GFZ Potsdam
• GCM-RCM climate
model simulations
MIKE
flood
• Pluvial flood model
• DTU Copenhagen
Model chain

9. 9
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Hydrological & hydrodynamic models
SWIM & CamaFlood
CaMa-Flood (v3.6) development: Model Assumptions
[6] Diagnostic downscaling of flood depth
- Flood depth can be diagnostically downscaled to the high-resolution DEM
by post processing after the hydrodynamic simulation.
W
B
Z
rD fD
L
cA
fA
rS fSfS
cA
fA
River Channel
Floodplain
Water depth above river channel (FLDDPH)
DEM’s height above river channel (FLDDIF)
by post processing after the hyd
Z
“High-resolution DEM’s height above river channel” and “simulat
are compared to calculate water depth of each high-resolution p
Water dep
DEM’s height above river channel (FLDDIF)

10. 10
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Model domain
SWIM hydrological model
Area 8x105 km2
Validation
stations
44
Subbasins 13‘778
Hydrotopes 186‘296

11. 11
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
• Climate (driving data, various)
• Elevation (EU 25m DEM)
• Land-use (CORINE 100m)
• Soil map and database (HWSDB 1km)
• Hydrological features (OpenStreetMap)
• Validation (obs. discharge, other flood hazard maps)
Input data

12. 12
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
OpenStreetMap data
SWIM, CamaFlood
• River central lines
• River banks
• Residential /
industrial areas
• Lakes & reservoirs

13. 13
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Model validation

14. 14
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Current and future flood reoccurrence
Peak discharge

15. 15
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
The future
reoccurrence of
the current
100-year flood
2020-2049

16. 16
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
The future
reoccurrence of
the current
100-year flood
2070-2099

17. 17
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Changes from reference period until 2006-2035
Future reoccurrence of the 100-year flood

18. 18
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Simulation without levees
Bavaria, Germany, 2006

19. 19
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Simulation with levees
Bavaria, Germany, 2006

20. 20
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
EOBS-IMAGE-SWIM CamaFlood
100-year flood hazard map

21. 21
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
100-year flooded area, reference vs current climate period
ICHEC-KNMI – IMAGE – SWIM – CamaFlood
Entire catchment OSM populated/industrial

22. 22
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
2. Pluvial flood
hazard
modelling

23. 23
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
CORDEX-
EU
IMAGE
• Multisite, multivariate
stochastic weather generator
• Imperial College London
SWIM
• Hydrological model
• PIK Potsdam
CaMa
Flood
• Hydraulic model
• PIK Potsdam
BN-
FLEMOps
• Probabilistic flood loss model
• GFZ Potsdam
• GCM-RCM climate
model simulations
MIKE
flood
• Pluvial flood model
• DTU Copenhagen
Model chain

24. 24
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
• 2D urban-scale flood model (MIKE by DHI)
• EU-DEM (25-m) Digital Elevation Model (or finer)
• Urban land cover based on high resolution remote sensing estimates (e.g.
Sentinel-2)
• Infiltration based on international soil data base
• Conceptual simulation of urban drainage system
• Rainfall events modelled by “Chicago” design storms (IDF)
• Climate projections based on output from Climate Module
Pluvial hazard model - methodology

25. 25
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Details: 100-year event

26. 26
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
2a. Fluvial flood
loss model

27. 27
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
CORDEX-
EU
IMAGE
• Multisite, multivariate
stochastic weather generator
• Imperial College London
SWIM
• Hydrological model
• PIK Potsdam
CaMa
Flood
• Hydraulic model
• PIK Potsdam
BN-
FLEMOps
• Probabilistic flood loss model
• GFZ Potsdam
• GCM-RCM climate
model simulations
Fluvial and pluvial flood model chain
MIKE
flood
• Pluvial flood model
• DTU Copenhagen

28. 28
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Model development
Post flood event
survey data (4368)
Empirical data1
Relevant variables for
flood loss prediction
Variable importance2
Structure from data
and expert knowledge
Bayesian network3
European proxy data
for model application
Scale transfer4
+

29. 29
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
The Bayesian Network – Flood Loss
Estimation Model for the private sector
• Multi-variable
• Probabilistic
• For the private sector (buildings)
• Transferable in location and scale
• Predictions also with incomplete data
Model structure
BN-FLEMOps

30. 30
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Model data sources
European proxies
• Building footprint
• Building location
Open
Building
Maps
• Flood experience
• Flood events of the
past 25 years
DFO
Catalogue
• Water depth
• Return period
• Duration
Hydraulic
Model
• European Asset
Map
• Assets per land use
class
Asset
Values

31. 31
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Model data sources
European proxies
Building area Flood experience Assets
Case studies
for validation

32. 32
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
2b. Pluvial flood
loss model

33. 33
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Model structure
Bayesian zero-inflated beta regression model
Zero-loss
wd: Relative water level in the building [cm]
d: Flood duration [h]
con: Contamination of flood water [Y/N]
dam: Probability of monetary damage (latent variable)
pr1: Knowledge about flood hazard [Y/N]
bt1: Single-family home [Y/N]
hs: Members in the household
• Multi-variable
• Probabilistic
• For the private sector (buildings)
• Transferable in location and scale
• Predictions also with incomplete
data

34. 34
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Model data sources
Focus areas FDM
• Building location
• Building type
Open
Building
Maps
• Contamination
• Household size
• Precaution
Not yet
available
• Water depth
• Duration (>10cm
inundation depth)
Hydraulic
Model
• European Asset
Map
• Assets per building
Asset
Values

35. 35
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Budapest
Absolute Loss: 100 year flood

36. 36
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Novi Sad
Absolute Loss: 50 year flood

37. 37
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Probabilistic loss estimates
Absolute Loss: 50 year flood
Uncertainty in loss estimates

38. 38
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Online questionnaire
Data collection

39. 39
A Presentation by OASIS | Horizon2020 Insurance
www.h2020insurance.oasishub.co
Online questionnaire
Data collection
Survey active since 09/2018
43 surveys (39 partial / 4 total)

40. Get in touch
PIK Potsdam: wortmann@pik-potsdam.de, hattermann@pik-potsdam.de
GFZ Potsdam: kai.schroeter@gfz-potsdam.de, max.steinhausen@gfz-potsdamd.de
DTU Copenhagen: mard@dtu.dk
Publication:
Hattermann et al. 2018. Simulation of flood hazard and risk in the Danube basin with the Future
Danube Model. Climate Services. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2018.07.001
Oasis-HUB:
https://oasishub.co/organization/gfz-potsdam
https://oasishub.co/organization/pik