Yiyi Zhou is a Senior Wind Analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance based in Beijing. In her current capacity she oversees the firm’s research on the global wind supply chain, wind technology and the Chinese wind market. Yiyi has more than eight years of experience in the wind industry beginning with Vestas Wind Systems A/S in 2007. She holds a MSc in Wind Energy from Denmark Technical University (DTU). In this presentation, Yiyi will provide a market outlook for global wind energy, including Chinese market as well as discuss the cost-effectiveness of wind energy compared with conventional technology and its future costs.

1. BNEF WIND ENERGY
BRIEFING
Yiyi Zhou
28 April 2016

2. 1
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South
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4. 3
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5. 4
Source:
http://cn.bing.com/images/search?q=wind+turbine+community&view=detailv2&&id=8ED992341002389CDFE3EAF7E77E
924D489175F6&selectedIndex=363&ccid=LzDANnOJ&simid=607996095383866982&thid=OIP.M2f30c03673890ab014df
cc2d8db46760o0&ajaxhist=0
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COMMUNITY SCALE WIND TURBINE

6. 5
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
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TWO TYPES OF UTILITY SCALE WIND ENERGY
Offshore wind farmOnshore wind farm

7. 6
CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT ROSE WHILE OIL PLUMMETED
GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT VS WTI CRUDE SPOT 2004 - 2015
$62bn
$88bn
$128bn
$175bn
$206bn $207bn
$274bn
$318bn
$297bn
$272bn
$316bn
$329bn
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$37.04
$140.00
$35.76
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceNote: nominal dollars

8. 7
CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT BY SECTOR
2004 – 2015 ($BN)
Wind Solar
Energy Smart Technologies (EST) Biofuels
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Clean energy investment through 2015
$18
$28
$39
$60
$74 $78
$97
$82 $80
$89
$104$108
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
$9 $13 $19
$36
$58 $60
$99
$150
$141
$113
$139
$157
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
$13 $13 $14 $18 $20 $28 $33 $36 $37 $36 $41 $41
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
$3 $9
$27 $27
$17
$8 $8 $8 $5 $4 $3 $1
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

9. 8
CHINA IS THE FIRST SINGLE $100BN CLEAN ENERGY MARKET
ANNUAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT IN FIVE COUNTRIES, 2004 – 2015
$0bn
$50bn
$100bn
$150bn
$0bn
$50bn
$100bn
$150bn
$0bn
$50bn
$100bn
$150bn
$0bn
$50bn
$100bn
$150bn
$0bn
$50bn
$100bn
$150bn
Germany US Japan Spain China
’04 ’15 ’04 ’15 ’04 ’15 ’04 ’15 ’04 ’15
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceNote: nominal dollars

10. 9
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: North America includes the US and Canada. Some historical installation data has been revised. A table showing how this
forecast compares to our last Quarterly Outlook can be found in the appendix. Click here for underlying data.
SHORT-TERM NEW WIND BUILD FORECAST
ANNUAL WIND INSTALLATIONS BY REGIONS, INCLUDING
OFFSHORE WIND, 2010–20E (GW)
17.0 18.0
13.9 15.0
20.7
28.7
21.3 22.6 21.7 21.0 21.0
8.9 9.6
11.7 10.9
10.6
10.7
10.0 9.0 8.1 8.3 8.1
5.3
8.0 14.8
2.2
6.9
10.4
11.6 8.9 12.3
7.1 6.2
4.2
3.5
3.9
3.2
5.1
3.5 3.7
3.2
3.9
4.1
2.7
5.5
4.8
10.5
12.1
14.0
15.1 14.5
4.1
4.6
5.7
6.5 10.2
36.3
40.5
46.7
33.6
48.8
62.1
59.1 60.4
66.8
61.5
63.8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Offshore
RoW
Latin
America
North
America
Europe
China
12% 15% -28% 45% 27% -5% 2% 11% -8% 4%

11. 10
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Nameplate capacity represents the companies' announced production capacity. Discounted capacity represents our best
estimation of actual available capacity. For details see our Wind Turbine Manufacturing Supply Model
ESTIMATED GLOBAL WIND TURBINE SUPPLY
2011-14 (%, GW)
43.1% 44.3% 44.1% 45.6%
9% 9% 12% 13%3% 3%
3%
3%15% 14% 13%
13%
9% 9% 10%
8%
21% 20% 19% 17%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Rest of world
Germany
US
Other Asia
India
China
63.6 62.8 61.3 74.1
Asia = 62%
Asia = 55%

12. 11
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
(LBNL), ExTool study (Neij et al.2003), Vestas
annual reports.
ONSHORE WIND TURBINE PRICE
(INFLATION CORRECTED TO 2014),1984-2016E (EUR M/MW)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Global (ex. China) (BNEF) Germany (ExTool) Denmark (Extool)
Vestas global The US (LBL) China (BNEF)
Rapid reduction
Plateau
period
Resumed
decline
15GW 115GW 469GW
Cumulative
installed
capacity

13. 12
H2 2015 LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY
CENTRAL AND REGIONAL SCENARIOS ($/MWH)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceNote: STEG = solar thermal electric generation

14. 13
CHINA ADDED 150GW OF GENERATION WITH NO NEW DEMAND
CHINA POWER CAPACITY ADDITIONS AND YOY DEMAND GROWTH, 1995 – 2015
Source: NEA
0GW
50GW
100GW
150GW
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Thermal Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar
10%
15.6%
0.5%
Power generation capacity additions Year-on-year demand growth

15. 14
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
1,752
3,504
5,256
7,008
8,760
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
General Thermal Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar
Source: China Electricity Council
ANNUAL UTILISATION HOURS AND CAPACITY
FACTOR BY TECHNOLOGY, 2008-15
Annual utilisation hours Capacity factor

16. 15
CHALLENGES FACING RENEWABLES IN CHINA
WIND GENERATION AND CURTAILMENT
2011-15 (TWH)
RENEWABLE ENERGY FUND DEFICIT
2016-20 ($BN)
74 103 139 160 185
14
21
17
14
34
16%
17%
11%
8%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
50
100
150
200
250
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Wind generation Wind curtailment Wind curtailment ratio
Wind generation and
curtailment (TWh)
Curtailment ratio
13.8 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.0
4.7
6.9
9.8
13.3
17.6
18.5
20.8
24.0
27.9
32.7
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Deficit
Renewable fund
To support its feed-in tariff, China levies a surcharge on
electricity end-users, which is then collected into a
renewable energy fund before being redistributed. The
fund is currently insufficient to cover the subsidies and
the deficit is expected to grow in the next five years,
which will lead to more payment delays.
After seeing some improvement, wind curtailment
worsened in 2015. It will worsen further in the next five
years as the pace of wind project development
continues unabated and China’s power demand
weakens. However, curtailment is much worse in some
regions (north and west) than in others (south).

17. 16
Note: Hours represent full load hours of each province in 2015. Capacity factor can be calculated as full load hours divided
by 8,760 hours. Percentage numbers in the brackets represent average curtailment rate of each province calculated as
[estimated curtailed electricity generation / (actual electricity generation + estimated curtailed electricity generation)]
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
China Electric Council (CEC).
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CHINA WIND CURTAILMENT BY PROVINCE, 2015,
(FULL LOAD HOURS, %)

18. 17
● High capital investment
● Complicated development and construction
process
● Limited types of wind farm developers and
financing model
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
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KEY BARRIERS FOR COMMUNITY LEVEL INVESTOR
TO ENTER WIND MARKET

19. 18
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
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CORPORATE RENEWABLE ENERGY PROCUREMENT

20. 19
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