Slides for my presentation to Griffith University & Economic Society of Australia Queensland event regarding economic policy issues in the 2015 Queensland election.

1. The black hole election

3. Queensland Government borrowings
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
$ billion
General Government Public Non-financial Corporations Total

4. The Government’s strongest and smartest choice?

5. Quiggin’s analysis of the Government’s plans
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
$ billion
Income forgone Interest saved Net impact

6. Labor’s fiscal strategy
Most of the debt pay down occurs outside of the forward estimates

8. Queensland Budget forward estimates
Mid Year Fiscal and Economic Review 2014-15
40
45
50
55
60
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
$ billion
Revenue
Expenses

9. Queensland Budget forward estimates
Mid Year Fiscal and Economic Review 2014-15
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
$ billion
Net operating balance
Net acquisition of non-financial assets
Fiscal balance

10. Productivity Commission (2013) evidence

11. AER estimates of 2014 average annual power bills
Customer using 6,500 kilowatt hours of electricity per year
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000
ACT - ActewAGL
Vic - Citipower
NSW - Endeavour Energy
Tas - Aurora Energy
NSW - Ausgrid
Vic - United Energy
Qld - Energex & Ergon Energy
Vic - Jemena
Vic - Powercor
Vic - AusNet Services
NSW - Essential Energy
SA - ETSA Utilities

12. EY estimates of annual power bills
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
SA
Vic
Qld
NSW

13. EY estimates of long-run changes in power prices
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Retail Network Non-network + other
NSW (96-97 to 12-13) Qld (96-97 to 12-13) Vic (96 to 13) SA (98-99 to 10-11)

14. Thank you
Please feel free to get in touch and read my blog
e. gene.tunny@adepteconomics.com.au
Personal blog: queenslandeconomywatch.com