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- 3. UNDERSTANDING THE PROBLEM OF CLIMATE MIGRATION Increased temperatures and drought risk (IPCC 2022) Push factor that incentivizes migrants to move Causes political changes and resource strain (Erol 2019)
- 4. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS INCREASED INCENTIVE FOR MIGRATION DIMINISHING OF RESOURCES NECESSARY FOR MIGRATION Increased temperatures and drought risk (IPCC Push factor that incentivizes migrants to move Causes political changes and resource strain (Erol 2019)
- 5. INTERNAL VS EXTERNAL MIGRATION Internal Migration External Migration https://www.cdc.gov/usmexicohealth/index.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/pdf/us_migration_map_v6.pdf Within a Country Between Countries Increased temperatures and drought risk (IPCC 2022) Push factor that incentivizes migrants to move Causes political changes and resource strain (Erol 2019)
- 6. IMPACTS OF EXTERNAL MIGRATION • Can cause strain on public infrastructure and resources (Cottier 2015) • Perceived economic threat (Cottier 2015) • External Migration has become an important political issue (Cottier 2015) Increased temperatures and drought risk (IPCC 2022) Push factor that incentivizes migrants to move Causes political changes and resource strain (Erol https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-i-stay-or-can-i-go-now-longer-term-impacts-covid-19-global- migration
- 7. IMPACTS OF INTERNAL MIGRATION • Can fuel political changes (Erol 2019) • Increased resource strain (Erol 2019) • Income sorting (Erol 2019) • Can lead to rising housing prices (Erol 2019) https://archive.curbed.com/2018/4/4/17198384/real-estate-study-migration-united-sta Increased temperatures and drought risk (IPCC 2022) Push factor that incentivizes migrants to move Causes political changes and resource strain (Erol
- 8. RESEARCH GOAL Increased temperatures and drought risk (IPCC 2022) Push factor that incentivizes migrants to move Causes political changes and resource strain (Erol 2019) Characterize internal climate migration in the US Develop a model to predict future climate migration Identify places to invest in migration mitigation and adaptation
- 9. RESEARCH GOAL Increased temperatures and drought risk (IPCC 2022) Push factor that incentivizes migrants to move Causes political changes and resource strain (Erol 2019) Characterize internal climate migration in the US Develop a model to predict future climate migration Identify places to invest in migration mitigation and adaptation
- 12. • Increased Temperatures lead to Increased Asylum Applications (Missirian 2017) (Missirian et al, 2017) EU MIGRATION
- 13. MEXICO TO US MIGRATION • Increased Warm Spell Duration leads to Increased Probability of Migration (Nawrotzki 2015) (Nawrotzki et al, 2015)
- 15. HURRICANE MARIA • Hurricane Maria led to a 4 to 17% decline in the impacted population (Acosta 2020) (Acosta et al, 2020)
- 16. DUST BOWL • Dust Bowl of the 1930s also linked to net- outmigration in the affected regions due to crop failure and stress on livestock (Long 2018) (McLeman 2006) (Long et al, 2018)
- 18. IMPACTS OF DECLINING CROP YIELDS • A 1% decrease in crop yields leads to a 0.17% net reduction of the population through migration (Feng 2012) (Feng et al, 2012)
- 19. RESEARCH GAP • Previous research on internal migration in the US has primarily focused on either specific regions or historical events • No research on current countrywide internal migration in the US
- 20. • Study internal migration in the US in response to increased temperature and drought PROPOSED RESEARCH IDEA
- 21. Gather Data Correlate Data Determine Significance Areas of Interest Methodology
- 22. DATA SOURCES • Internal migration data - Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) • Extreme Heat data from database created by UC San Diego researchers • Drought data from the Evaporative Demand Drought Index for the US (DeWaard 2019) Gather Data Correlate Data Determine Significance Areas of Interest
- 23. DATA SOURCES • Internal migration data - Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) • Extreme Heat data from database created by UC San Diego researchers • Drought data from the Evaporative Demand Drought Index for the US https://sabenz.users.earthengine.app/view/urbanheatusa Gather Data Correlate Data Determine Significance Areas of Interest
- 24. DATA SOURCES • Internal migration data - Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) • Extreme Heat data from database created by UC San Diego researchers • Drought data from the Evaporative Demand Drought Index for the US https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators- Gather Data Correlate Data Determine Significance Areas of Interest
- 25. CORRELATE TIME SERIES • Standardize values of migration, temperature and drought • Correlate the temperature and migration data and drought and migration data for each location by creating a linear regression model • Check for lagging effects Gather Data Correlate Data Determine Significance Areas of Interest
- 26. T-TEST FOR SLOPE •Analyze significance of linkage through a t- test for the slope •Does increased drought/temperature lead to increased or decreased net-migration? Gather Data Correlate Data Determine Significance Areas of Interest
- 27. AREAS OF INTEREST • Southwest – Worsening drought and increasing populations • New York City – Coastal city with urban heat island effect https://dafi1637.blogspot.com/2018/03/united-states-map- southwest.html Gather Data Correlate Data Determine Significance Areas of Interest
- 28. AREAS OF INTEREST • Southwest – Worsening drought and increasing populations • New York City – Coastal city with urban heat island effect https://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/nyc_heatisland.ht ml Gather Data Correlate Data Determine Significance Areas of Interest
- 29. EXPECTED RESULTS INCREASEDTEMPERATURE AND DROUGHT SEVERITY INCREASED NET-MIGRATION OUT OF LOCATION
- 30. PROPOSED CONCLUSIONS • Extreme heat and drought could be potential drivers of future migration • Mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of drought and extreme heat could reduce the number of migrants https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2016-10/documents/extreme-heat-guidebook.pdf
- 31. POTENTIAL IMPACT/FUTURE WORK Better understanding of how people are migrating in relation to climate Improved ability to predict future migration shifts caused by climate change Invest resources in adapting to and mitigating climate migration Reduce resource strain and overcrowding caused by increased flow of migrants
- 32. BIBLIOGRAPHY • Cottier, Fabien, & Salehyan, Idean.. Climate variability and irregular migration to the European Union. Global Environmental Change, 69 (C) • DeWaard, Johnson & Whitaker: Internal migration in the United States. Demographic Research Volume 41, Article 33, Pages 953-1006 • Erol, Isil; Unal, Umut (2021) : Internal Migration and House Prices in Australia, MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics, No. 13-2021, PhilippsUniversity Marburg, School of Business and Economics, Marburg • Missirian A, Schlenker W. Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations. (2017) Science. 2017 Dec 22;358(6370):1610-1614. • Nawrotzki, Raphael & Hunter, Lori & Runfola, Daniel & Riosmena, Fernando. (2015). Climate Change as Migration Driver from Rural and Urban Mexico. Environmental Research Letters. 10. 114023. • Feng, Shuaizhang & Oppenheimer, Michael & Schlenker, Wolfram. (2012). Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States. • Acosta, R. J., Kishore, N., Irizarry, R. A., & Buckee, C. O. (2020). Quantifying the dynamics of migration after Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(51), 32772-32778. • Long, J., & Siu, H. (2018). Refugees from dust and shrinking land: Tracking the Dust Bowl migrants. The Journal of Economic History, 78(4), 1001-1033. • McLeman, R. (2006). Migration out of 1930s rural eastern Oklahoma: insights for climate change research. Great Plains Quarterly, 26(1), 27-40.
Editor's Notes
- Migration movement of people Push factors: Economic struggles and violence Pull Factors: Economic opportunities and political freedom
- Climate can affect migration and we know the climate is worsening in many aspects through the rise in greenhouse gases that is causing global warming.
- Climate Change can cause an increased incentive for migration by causing economic harm through the increased temperatures and drought risk. However, at the same time this economic harm can cause a diminishing of resources necessary for migration. Climate change can cause people to either move internally or externally.
- Climate migration can either occur internally or externally. As explained on the previous slide climate change can cause a decline in resources necessary for migration and since internal migration is cheaper it could be more responsive to climate change than external migration. However most research has focused on external migration.
- Since it has become an important political issue most climate migration research has focused on external migration.
- However Internal migration has important effects as well. Internal migration is often not seen as an issue like external migration however internal migrations has meaningful efffects When it comes to the US in particular tates of Texas, Georgia, and Arizona where much of the shift towards the democratic party has been linked to the influx of people into the state from other areas of the US..
- Before I characterize migration within the US it is important to look at the previous research that had been conducted
- Temperatures in middle east and Africa – asylum applications to the Eu
- Increased duration of above average temperature in emxxico led to an increased probability of migration to the us
- When it comes to internal migration in the US much of the research has focused on historical events
- Puerto Rico
- The Dust Bowl refers to the drought-stricken Southern Plains region of the United States, which suffered severe dust storms during a dry period in the 1930s
- When it comes to more general migration within the US
- Determined that crop yields would decline as a result of climate change due to the rising temperatures and drought severity. Only looked at the impact of decling crop yields not the other health/economic effects that increased temperature and drought severity could have.
- Go through each of the data sources and highlight the data. Source details and show a visual representation of the data on the the right
- Go through each of the data sources and highlight the data. Source details and show a visual representation of the data on the the right
- All record data for each county
- Model….. Where each data point records the migration data and the temperature/drought data for the location for a set period of time Lagged migration effects caused by temperature and drought
- Flow chart – data sources flow chart
- NYC picture change the text on the left
- UHI is an effect where cities experience higher temperatures than the surrounding areas due to the retention of heat by the materials of the city