This longitudinal research, covering a period of 10 years, looks at how an industrial catastrophe in 2010 influences perceptions of COVID-19 and climate change today. Those who were the most affected by the accident 10 years ago are the ones who perceive themselves most exposed to global challenges today. They consider themselves highly vulnerable to the challenges of this scale.

1. FROM THE AFTERMATH OF AN INDUSTRIAL CATASTROPHE
TO COVID-19 AND CLIMATE CHANGE: LESSONS FOR THE
CRISIS COMMUNICATOR
Gabor Sarlos
Senior Lecturer
Roehampton Business School
2 December 2020

3. ... AND IN NUMBERS
4 October 2010, one of the largest industrial catastrophes ever in
Hungary
700.000 m3 of sludge (by product of alumina production) spilled
over following the break of a dam
The flash flood killed 10 people and wounded over a 100
It destroyed 3 villages and affected another 7, turning large
agricultural lands into wasteland

4. RESEARCH FOCUS 2013
Sarlos – Szondi, 2014:
Analyse exactly what happened in terms of communication:
immediately after
following the catastrophe
What effects would such a catastrophe have in social terms
TEST THE VALIDITY OF KEY CRISIS COMMUNICATION
THEORIES

5. FOCUS 2013 :
which key issues dominated the media coverage in the different
stages of the crisis?
who were the dominant stakeholder groups in the media coverage
and what crisis communication strategies are manifested by these
stakeholder groups?
does classical crisis theory need to be revisited to accommodate
extended social crisis?

6. THEORETICAL UNDERPINNING
crisis: serious threat to the basic structures of the fundamental values and norms
of a social system (Rosenthal et al, 1989)
industrial accidents are often classified as technological crises (Ulmer et al, 2007;
Lerbinger, 1997, Zaremba, 2010)
Fink’s (1986) 4 stage and Barton (1993), Mitroff (1996) 5 stage model were used
important note from Ullberg (2001): in the case of environmental crises it can be
difficult to establish when they are considered to be over
Situational Crisis Communication Theory (SCCT) (Coombs and Holladay, 2002)
may serve as a framework, where stakeholders are categorised based on their
relation to the crisis and the framing they create

7. METHODOLOGY
content analysis of 2152 articles from across the Hungarian media over a period of
21 months
coding of each article according to a set of 6 criteria:
media
general frame
focus
tone
source of information
stakeholder involvement / representation

8. SURPRISING TREND IN MEDIA
COVERAGE INTENSITY

9. KEY ISSUES DIFFER OVER
PERIODS

10. STAKEHOLDER REPRESENTATION:
INTERVIEWS GOVERNMENT DOMINATES

11. GOVERNMENT IS QUOTED MOST
FREQUENTLY, MAL ALSO APPEARS

12. STAKEHOLDERS AND MESSAGES (”COOMBS
TYPOLOGY”)
government: intentional framing: the sole responsibility is with the company
“a serious accident that had occurred due to the negligent attitude and irresponsible
actions of a private company”
local governments: victim framing : they seek sympathy and support from the other
stakeholder groups
“a careful balancing among the various stakeholder groups and a strong sensitivity to
the needs of the local people”
company (MAL): accidental framing: the company could not have done anything
more or better in face of the natural disaster.
“the company had acted all times at its best, followed the rules of corporate
governance and was regularly checked by relevant authorities”

13. STAKEHOLDER MESSAGING (CONT.)
Disaster Management Authority: from a low profile government
authority it becomes a significant stakeholder. Double function as
its Director General confuses their role and the situation
NGOs: They had been whistleblowing long before the actual spill
took place. They do not have the necessary resources and media
presence to make a strong influence.

14. STILL, LOCALS CLAIM COMMUNICATION
PROBLEMS
 “lack of communicating and especially consulting the locals”
 “the work of the local governments was judged through their information – communication
deficiencies”
 “local governments did not communicate to the public the usefulness of the centrally decided
investments”
”Communication deficit” (Bartal-Ferencz, 2015)

15. 1 YEAR LATER - THE CRISIS IS NOT OVER
migration from the region rose by 3 times
significant health issues especially among children: asthma rose
by appr 50%, mental and behavior disorders by 75%, high blood
pressure and circulation diseases by 200%
among grown-ups alcohol related mental and behavior disorders
by 200% and endocrine diseases by 250%

16. 2 YEARS LATER - THE CRISIS IS GETTING WORSE
due to the ongoing court case, the pending compensations and
the pending environmental fine of 400 million (!!!) euros MAL is
going bankrupt. The company is the largest employer in the
region.
actual climatic situation strongly influences air, land and water
pollution

17. 3 YEARS LATER - THE CRISIS HITS HARDEST (?)
July 23, 2013: closing of part of the factory, 400 workplaces lost.
Unemployment rate in the region rockets from 6,7% to 22%

19. CONCLUSIONS - MEDIA AND STAKEHOLDER ROLES
ARE DEFINED BASED ON THEIR RELATIVE POWER
media through its agenda setting ability decides which of the
framing (narratives) becomes dominant
depending on the media power of the actors, one of the clusters
becomes dominant. In this case it is the government narrative
(intentional framing) that has dominated.
The stronger the government influence on the media is, the more
dominant its narrative becomes

20. CONCLUSIONS - CRISES EXTEND IN TIME AND
CHANGE IN THEIR FORMAT
this crisis does not follow the classical cyclical model. Rather, the
resolution phase turns into an extended enduring phase.
the industrial / environmental catastrophe turns into a social
crisis.
in a hi-technology setting any crisis may change its format

21. 2020 - 10 YEARS AFTER
REVISITING THE REGION AND THE CRISIS
A working group of researchers combined their efforts to study the
communication, sociological, psychology and health effects 10 years
after the catastrophe

22. Survey in the affected region
2013 2020 + 2020 online
Number of
participants (survey)
360 people 339 people 120 people
In-depth interviews 25 24 -
Data of data
collection
2013 July – August 2020 July – August 2020
Media analysis 2152 articles Est: 200 (still
ongoing)
-

23. Number of respondents
2013 2020
DIRECTLY
AFFECTED
INDIRECTLY
AFFECTED
TOTAL DIRECTLY
AFFECTED
INDIRECTLY
AFFECTED
TOTAL
Devecser 129 99 228 123 104 227
Kolontár 20 43 63 20 39 59
Somlóvásárhely 12 39 51 13 36 49
other 19 0 19 2 2 4
TOTAL 180 181 361 158 181 339

24. 2020: Most respondents do not want to access information, they
want to move away from their memories
‘Do you still follow news and information about the red sludge catastrophe?’ (% N=337)
23
47
18
9 3
No Sometimes Often Always Not interested

25. 37
63
15
85
2
98
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
yes no yes no yes no
Devecser Kolontár Somlóvásárhely
"Is the catastrophe still a topic for everyday discussion in your village (% N=337)?

26. 2020: The more vivid their memories from the red sludge
catastrophe are, the more concerned they are about the
COVID-19 virus
Is the catastrophe
still a topic for
everyday
discussion in your
village?
yes no
I am
concerned
about the
virus
1 – not at all 0% 100%
2 9% 91%
3 22% 78%
4 37% 63%
5- fully 56% 44%

27. 2020: The more vivid their memories from the red sludge
catastrophe are, the more concerned they are about climate
change
Is the catastrophe
still a topic for
everyday
discussion in your
village?
yes no
I am concerned
about climate
change
1- not at all 0% 100%
2 13% 87%
3 25% 75%
4 28% 72%
5 - fully 39% 61%

28. 2020: What factors do you think cause climate change?
1
4
54
28
14
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
only natural factors
mainly natural factors
equally natural and human factors
mainly human factors
oly human factors

29. Most people still prefer TV as their prime source of information...
91
50
37 40
28
65
82
70
65 66
84
34
28
36
27
50
73
58
53
48
66
15 14
27 24
30
64
49
32 29
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
during the catastrophe in the 2-3 years after the catastrophe currently
2020: Sources for getting information

30. ... but have the information checked through family
2020: Credibility of information, reliability of news sources
70
24 21
33
22
40
74
56
40
6364
19 17
31
22
33
72
53
37
55
50
12 11
28
20
24
67
48
29
38
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
during the catastrophe in the 2-3 years after the catastrophe currently

31. Analogy: Chernobyl narratives (Sarlos – Fekete 2019)
Chernobyl (30 years later)
 lives as a symbol
 considered a closed chapter
 was reflective of the socio-political context of the times
 its framing today reflects the aspirations of society today
 it has become part of the infotainment industry
Red sludge catastrophe (10 years later)
 lives as a symbol ?
 considered a closed chapter - YES
 was reflective of the socio-political context of the times - YES
 its framing today reflects the aspirations of society today - YES
 it has become part of the infotainment industry - NO

32. How is it seen through the media today?
Conclusion
Polarised perceptions and interpretations reinforce bubble and
weaken social cohesion. This contributes to the weakening of social
resilience – and this is especially apparent in crisis situations, such as
the COVID-129 pandemic and climate change

33. and the crisis continues...

34. References
Bartal, Anna Mária – Ferencz, Zoltán (2015): A vörösiszap-katasztrófa
társadalmi hatásai. (The social effects of the red sludge catastrophe) Budapest:
Argumentum Kiadó – MTA TK Szociológiai Intézet
Sarlós, Gábor – Fekete, Mariann (2019) Seeing the Unseen: The Chernobyl
Imprint on the Hungarian Public Sphere, Journal of Public Affairs, New York,
NY: John Wiley & Sons, DOI: 10.1002/pa.1931
Sarlós, Gábor – Szondi, György (2014) ‘Crisis communication during the red
sludge spill disaster in Hungary—a media content analysis-based investigation’,
Journal of Public Affairs, vol. 15, no 3 pp. 277–286, New York, NY: John Wiley &
Sons

35. THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION
GABOR SARLOS