Prc’s geo political cresent strategy controlling a 300 mile arch from littoral coastlines into pacific ocean 90 pp 12262017 v1.6

PRC’S 21 ST CENTURY
GEO-POLITICAL MARITIME CRESENT STRATEGY
CONTROLLING A 300 MILE DEEP MARITIME DEFENSIVE ARCH
STRETCHING FROM PRC’S NORTH EAST
LITTORAL SEAS YELLOW SEA, SEA OF JAPAN
SOUTH WEST INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN & INDIAN OCEANS
CLAIMING, REINFORCING, HARDENING
OFF-SHORE CORAL REEFS, ATOLS, INSLANDS
INTO A ARMED PHLANX OF INEXPENSIVE
UNSINKABLE STATIONARY OUTPOSTS
JUST LIKE THE US PACIFIC POSSESSIONS
OF HAWIIAN ISLANDS, MIDWAY,
AUSTRALIA, NZ IN WW II
PREPARED BY
GERARD JC LA TOURNERIE
WEXFORD SYSTEMS, LLC.

100 BCE-15TH CENTURY CHINA’S ROBUST, EXPANSIVE TRADE ROUTES THROUGHOUT PACIFIC,
INDIAN OCEANS, ARABIAN SEAS
IMPERIAL CHINA HAS A ROBUST EXPANSIVE LAND TRADE ROUTES
• VIA THE SILK ROAD ROUTE NETWORKS
• INTO INDIA,
• ISFAHAN, PERSIA,
• TEHRAN, PERSIA
• KABUL, AFGHANISTAN,
• ISTANBUL, TURKIE
• EPHESIS, TURKIE
• THE BLACK SEA
• GREECE, CITY STATES
• PEOLPONESIAN SEAS,
• MEDITERANIAN SEAS
• IRAQ
• LEBANON
• PALESTINE
• ISRAEL
• JORDAN
• EGYPT
• CARTHAGE, NORTH AFRICA

100 BCE-15TH CENTURY CHINA’S ROBUST, EXPANSIVE TRADE ROUTES THROUGHOUT PACIFIC,
INDIAN OCEANS, ARABIAN SEAS-
BLUE SEAS TRADE ROUTES ALONG THE ENTIERE COASTLINE OF IMPERIAL CHINA
• KOREA
• TAIWAN
• VIETNAM
• CAMBODIA
• MALAYSIA
• INDONESIA
• PHILIPPINES
• BRUNAI
• THAILAND
• BURMA
• CEYLON
• PAKISTAN
• INDIA
• AFGHANISTAN
• PERSIA
• IRAQ
• EMERITES
• ARABIA
• HORN OF AFRICA
• EGYPT
• SUDAN
• EAST AFRICAN COAST LINE
• MEDITERRANIAN SEA
• FLORENCE, ITALY

100 BCE-15TH CENTURY CHINA’S ROBUST, EXPANSIVE TRADE ROUTES THROUGHOT PACIFIFC,
1368 AD
• A new emperor Yongle, Zhu Di has been on the throne since 1368 and
• proceeds to purge the empire of the supporters of the previous Muslim Mongol dynasty.
• As Emperor Yongle, Zhu Di makes the former Mongol capital of Dadu his own and calls it Beijing.
• He builds The Forbidden City and moves the entire court there.
• He instigates the writing of world’s greatest encyclopedia & builds the Great Treasure Fleets,
• bringing all nations encountered under the thrall of China in the first instance of gunboat diplomacy.
• But the Emperor’s drive comes at great cost to those closest to him.
His closest friend & Political ally Zheng He gains greatness as Grand Admiral of the Treasure Fleets.

1405-1433
When China Ruled the Seas: The Treasure Fleet of the Dragon Throne, 1405–1433
by Louise Levathes
One hundred years before Columbus and his fellow Europeans began their voyages of discovery,
• fleets of giant junks commanded by the eunuch admiral Zheng He and
• filled with the empire’s finest porcelains, lacquerware, and silk ventured to the world’s “four corners.”
Seven epic expeditions brought China’s treasure ships across the China Seas and Indian Ocean,
• from Japan to the spice island of Indonesia and
• the Malabar Coast of India,
• on to the rich ports of the Persian Gulf and
• down the East African coast,
• to China’s “El Dorado,” and perhaps even to Australia,
• three hundred years before Captain Cook’s landing.
It was a time of exploration and expansion, but it ended in a retrenchment
• so complete that less than a century later, it was a crime to go to sea in a multimasted ship.

1405-1433
by Louise Levathes
In When China Ruled the Seas,
• Louise Levathes takes a fascinating and unprecedented look at this dynamic period in China’s enigmatic history,
• focusing on the country’s rise as a naval power that briefly brought half the world under its nominal
authority.
• Drawing on eyewitness accounts, official Ming histories, and African, Arab, and Indian sources, many
translated for the first time,
• Levathes brings readers inside China’s most illustrious scientific and technological era.
• She sheds new light on the historical and cultural context in which this great civilization thrived, as well as the
perception of China by other contemporary cultures.
• Beautifully illustrated and engagingly written,
• When China Ruled the Seas is the fullest picture yet of the early Ming dynasty—
• the last flowering of Chinese culture before the Manchu invasion.

1405-1433
by Louise Levathes
Editorial Reviews From Publishers Weekly
• Levathes, a former staff writer for National Geographic , here tells the story of
• seven epic voyages made by unique junk armadas during the reign of the Chinese emperor Zhu Di.
• These "treasure ships" under the command of the eunuch admiral Zheng He
• traded in porcelain, silk, lacquerware and fine-art objects;
• they sailed from Korea and Japan throughout the Malay archipelago and
• India to East Africa, and possibly as far away as Australia.
• Levathes argues that China could have employed its navy—
• with some 3000 vessels,
• the largest in history until the present century—
• to establish a great colonial empire 100 years before the age of European exploration and expansion;

1405-1433
by Louise Levathes
Editorial Reviews From Publishers Weekly
• instead, the Chinese abruptly dismantled their navy.
• Levathes describes the political showdown that led to this perverse turn of events,
• revolving around a clash between the powerful eunuch class and
• Confucian scholar-officials.
• Her scholarly study includes a section on the construction of the seagoing junks
• (the largest had nine masts, was 400 feet long and would have dwarfed Columbus's ships)
• and provides a look into court life in the Ming dynasty,
• particularly the relationship between the emperor, his eunuch and his concubines. Illustrated.
Copyright 1994 Reed Business Information, Inc.

1405-1433
by Louise Levathes
From Library Journal
• In the early 1400s China was poised to become the world's premier maritime power.
• Emperor Zhu Di (who also built Beijing's Forbidden City)
• planted vast orchards of tung trees to provide oil to seal his huge "treasure ships,"
• which ranged the South China Seas and the Indian Ocean loaded with silks and porcelains
• traded for gemstones, coral, pepper, and the cobalt used to improve the very porcelains for which his Ming
dynasty would become known.
• But due to shrinking funds, foreign aggressors, and
• the Confucian distrust of trade and prosperity,
• the Chinese abruptly abandoned shipbuilding and began their long plummet into isolationism.
• A former staff writer for National Geographic, Levathes writes history in the praiseworthy tradition of Barbara
Tuchman.
• There are substantial notes and a bibliography of works in Chinese, English, and French.
• Highly recommended. Jack Shreve, Allegany Community Coll., Cumberland, Md.Copyright 1994 Reed Business
Information, Inc.

1405-1433
by Louise Levathes
• Levathes, a former staff writer for National Geographic, tells the tale of Chinese emperor Zhu Di and
his favorite eunuch admiral, Zheng He,
• who tried during a 30-year period to break China's isolation with seven major naval expeditions to
India, Indonesia, and Africa.
• Levathes writes popular history and therefore sprinkles her text with scene-setting and little
digressions into everyday life in Ming China.
• The descriptions of the giant naval docks at Longjiang are fascinating,
• as is her account of the eternal intrigues between the eunuch faction and the Confucian bureaucracy
at court.
• The eunuchs and merchants wanted trade, exploration, and capital venture;
• the Confucians wanted moderate taxes, isolation, and priority given to agriculture.
• The struggle between these outlooks dominated--and still dominates—
• China's dealings with the outside world.

1405-1433
by Louise Levathes
• Zhu Di was with the merchants, and his fleets were veritable mercantile armadas, with boachuan (treasure
boats) 400 feet long.
• Their principal destination was Calicut in Kerala, the only state that the Chinese did not regard as
barbarian. From here they brought back spices, elephants, and the first eyeglasses from Venice.
• Having established Chinese domination of the Indian Ocean,
• Zheng seemed to be on the brink of ushering in an era of global Chinese imperialism and openness to the
outside world.
• It was not to be.
• Zhu Di died in 1424 and was succeeded by his son Gaozhi, a devout Confucian who banned all naval
voyages.
• A hundred years later, China had no navy and anyone caught even sailing on the high seas was summarily
put to death.
• Levathes illuminates a historical crossroads: the century in which Western and Chinese expansion
overlapped.
• She does not fully explain why one continued and the other did not,
• but she does expose one piece of the historical jigsaw puzzle,
• namely the root of the Chinese inability to open a door to the outside world. She does this entertainingly and with a
minimum of dry analysis. -- Copyright ©1994, Kirkus Associates, LP. All rights reserved.
•

100 BCE-15TH CENTURY CHINA’S ROBUST, EXPANSIVE TRADE ROUTES THROUGHOT PACIFIFC, INDIAN OCEANS, ARABIAN SEAS
1405-1433

• 1450 INTO THE ATLANTIC & MEDITERRANIAN SEAS
• THE IMPERIAL EUNUCH ADMIRAL Zheng He OF THE IMPERIAL CHINESE TRADE FLEET SAILED INTO THE
SOUTH EAST ASIAN PACIFIC & INDIAN OCEANS
• ESTABLISHING TRADE CONTACTS, CONTRACTS,
• SETTING UP TRADING COLONIES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF AFRICA & MADAGASCAR,
• COLLECTING EXOTIC ANIMALS FOR THE CHINESE EMPERIORS PRIVATE ZOO
UPON THE DEATH OF THE EMPEROR
• THE ROYAL UNUCS WRESTED POWER AWAY FROM THE DECEASED EMPERORS INTERNATIONALISTS,
TRADING EXPANSINISTS
• BY BURNING THE IMPERIAL BLUE WATER FLEET DOWN TO THE WATER LINES
• PROHIBITING THE CONSTRUCITON OF A BLUE WATER MILITARY, MERCHNT MARINE FLEET EVER AGAIN
UNTIL THE 20TH CENTURY
• by Louise Levathes

Cracking the China Conundrum: Why Conventional Economic Wisdom Is Wrong
by Yukon Huang
China's rise is altering global power relations,
• reshaping economic debates, and commanding tremendous public attention.
• Despite extensive media and academic scrutiny,
• the conventional wisdom about China's economy is often wrong.
• Cracking the China Conundrum provides a holistic and contrarian view of China's major economic, political,
and foreign policy issues.
• Yukon Huang trenchantly addresses widely accepted
• yet misguided views in the analysis of China's economy.
He examines arguments about the causes and effects
• of China's possible debt and property market bubbles, trade and investment relations with the Western
world,
• the links between corruption and political liberalization in a growing economy and
• Beijing's more assertive foreign policies.

by Yukon Huang
Huang explains that such misconceptions
• arise in part because China's economic system is unprecedented in many ways-
• namely because it's driven by both
• the market and
• state-
• which complicates the task of designing accurate and adaptable analysis and research.
Further,
• China's size, regional diversity, and
• uniquely decentralized administrative system
• poses difficulties
• for making generalizations and comparisons
• from micro to macro levels
• when trying to interpret China's economic state accurately.

by Yukon Huang
Huang explains that such misconceptions
• This book not only interprets the ideologies
• that experts continue building misguided theories upon,
• but also examines the contributing factors to this puzzle.
Cracking the China Conundrum
• provides an enlightening and corrective viewpoint
• on several major economic and political foreign policy concerns
• currently shaping China's economic environment.

• Editorial Reviews
• "In spite of repeated warning by many well-known economists of coming collapse of Chinese economy,
• China has maintained dynamic growth in the past four decades and
• contributed yearly more than 30 percent to world growth since the global financial crisis erupted in 2008.
• Huang's book provides an insightful analysis about the secrets of China's success.
• This is a must read for anyone who wants to know about the future of China and the world."
-- Justin Yifu Lin, Director, Center for New Structural Economics, Peking University and Former Chief Economist, the
World Bank
"Yukon Huang has written a most perceptive volume
• on the dynamics of China's economic transformation and
• their global implications. Accessible, authoritative, and timely, this is a must-read book for our time."
-- Dali L. Yang, William C. Reavis Professor of Political Science, The University of Chicago
• "For years, foreign analysts have underestimated China's economic potential and
• its ability to conquer problems that have stunted growth in other developing countries.
Yukon Huang's excellent book
• helps us understand why.
• Cracking the China Conundrum is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how China has got this far,
and what its chances are for evading the middle-income trap."
-- Arthur R. Kroeber, Author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know
by Yukon Huang

• "Cracking the China Conundrum is a much-needed work:
• it takes the conventional wisdom regarding the world's second biggest economy and
• subjects it to a clear and rigorous analysis
• that forces us to rethink what China's role means for world trade,
• and the way that it will address issues such as debt.
• Yukon Huang's analysis is clear and powerful. This is an essential read on a topic that nobody on earth can now
afford to ignore."
-- Rana Mitter, Director, University of Oxford China Centre
• "Yukon Huang's Cracking the China Conundrum achieves balance in age of imbalance,
• arguing that: China has substantial room for growth with efficiency-promoting reforms;
• political change not entirely conforming to western expectations will occur;
• Beijing will seek to maintain features of the post-War order
• that spurred its success while seeking to modify others; and,
• America needs to adapt to this growing power,
• while maintaining strategic balance. This is wise analysis."
-- David M. Lampton, Professor and Director, China Studies, Johns Hopkins-SAIS
by Yukon Huang

About the Author
• Yukon Huang is a Senior Fellow in the Asia Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington,
DC.
• He has formerly been the World Bank Director for China and Russia,
• Advisor to the World Bank and Asian Development Bank,
• a featured commentator on China for the Financial Times,
• as well as a former U.S. Treasury official and
• Economics Professor.
by Yukon Huang

by Yukon Huang
• Bywsmreron November 1, 2017
• There is no way to summarize the analysis of Yukon Huang for what he brings to his various topics of discussion is
• the elaborate interplay of the forces that make the PRC system and its Economy in particular unique.
• He gigantic contribution is being able to see further into this complexity than most other authorities
because for him the System is just that, a form of organization with a unique structure.
• There was, in the days of the cold war a field of study, Comparative Economic System
• that was ideology free in essence; it was the results and the problems that needed explaining. Huang must have
known it.
• A country he left as a student during and after World War II
• was an interesting area to return to much later working for the International Monetary Fund as a scholar.
Trained at Princeton and Yale in Economics
• he carries the intellectual baggage of that trade
• but he observed that many leading authorities predictions,
• such as Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff,* that China's unbalanced heavily indebted system would some collapse
• did not ring true.
• This publication is drawn from his years of publications to be found in the WSJ, Foreign Affairs, Financial
Times and such.
• His foot notes reference the enormous research available from the World Bank, I.M.F. that is available on the
Chinese Economy; they treat the data usable;
• Huang believes the growth rate is often understated for reasons given.

by Yukon Huang
• Bywsmreron November 1, 2017
• The pleasure of this work, if you are somewhat familiar with the story, is how clearly he explains the interaction of all
the parts and how regional and central controls support and resist one another. His analysis a pleasure to read and
convincing.
• For Economist a must.
• (If the subject is one you wish to master you may want to add another ideological free study that takes the parts of
the System apart –A German research project edited by Sebastian Heilmann, China’s Political System, for fine
details.)
*Economics’ quest for scientific predictability
• can leads to public policies with deviating effects.
• Such as the key study by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff,
• empirics which were used to make the case
• for the necessity of austerity adapted as policy by the E.U. and
• later found defective when a graduate student redid the study.

by Yukon Huang
ByLoyd EskildsonHALL OF FAMEon September 13, 2017
Few countries generate such widely varying views on their economic and political prospects.
• 'Cracking the China Conundrum' is about why there are such differences and why the conventional wisdom I so often wrong.
• China's rise is seen by many as a threat to the established international order and Western democratic traditions.
• At the same time, populist pressures are raising concerns about the economic benefits of globalization.
Unlike Russia's rapid economic transformation,
China's reforms were more gradual.
• State-driven mandates often overshadowed market forces.
• China's exceptional economic performance is the result of a series of pragmatic reforms
• that encouraged more competition,
• made use of the country's advantages, and
• were sequenced to reflect evolving institutional capabilities and
• market opportunity.

by Yukon Huang
• ByLoyd EskildsonHALL OF FAMEon September 13, 2017
Its economy underwent three major transformations during these reforms –
• from an agrarian to an industrial and services-driven economy,
• from a close economy to a relatively open one, and
• from a totally state-dominated economy to one of mixed ownership.
Reforms were pursued in a gradual, experimental way - providing incentives for local authorities.
• These reforms made China's firms globally competitive without the need to embrace the mass privatization initiatives
that took place in the Soviet Union. China also grew rapidly because it was partially insulated from swings in global
economic cycles due to capital controls and command over investment decisions.
In response to the Great Recession in 2008,
• China's policies to counter the crisis appeared to be a major success in keeping growth going at home.
• But subsequent cycles of credit expansion generated rapid debt buildup and
• excessive property construction,
• raising widespread concerns China would succumb to its own financial crisis.
This combination of mounting debt coupled with maturation of its economy
• has led to a prolonged slowdown which, as of early 2017, had yet to bottom out.

by Yukon Huang
• This contraction has generated worldwide concerns,
• because China still accounts for about 25% of the increase in global output,
• down from 50% during the 2008 crisis.
The consequences have
• disproportionately impacted metal and energy prices;
• commodity-exporting countries have felt this especially keenly.
Many point to China's recent problems as evidence of a flawed growth model or
• a precursor to a debt-driven collapse.
Yet, common sense tells us that no economy can grow at 10%/year forever.
• China's GDP growth rate of 6.7% in 2016 hit a 25-year low,
• yet was still higher than any other economy but India’s.
• It's growth rate of about 8% (2010-2014) compares quite favorably with the global average of 3.4%.

by Yukon Huang
• Most observers now see increasing household consumption
• as the solution for inadequate demand caused by depressed global trade and falling investment needs at
home.
• Huang contends that, given the nature of China's economic system,
• the problem can only be solved by increased government expenditures
• largely in the form of social services.
• He also believes that President Xi Jinping's campaign against corruption, if successful, will lead
to slower growth.
• The doubling of equity prices from 2014 to 2015,
• followed by a 40% collapse, have added to worries.
• However, most of China's debt is public, not private, and
• sourced domestically rather than externally.
China also did not have a significant private property market a decade ago –
• most of the recent surge in property prices
• is the result of market forces establishing appropriate values for land –
• whose value was previously hidden in a socialist system.

by Yukon Huang
• China is now investing more in the U.S. than the U.S. is investing in China.
• China is also elevating its regional presence and gaining more friends by strengthening links with Europe through its
'One Road, One Belt' initiative –
• while the U.S. 'pivot to Asia' is an attempt to reassert itself in the region.
• (No European country, with the possible exception of Germany,
• sees itself as competing to be a global power, but many feel the need at times to distance themselves from
American-led initiatives.)
The Middle East tends to be favorably disposed toward China,
• though Turkey, with its historical links to the Uighur community in Xinjiang, stands as an outlier.
Deng Ziaoping established at the outset
• that his priority was economic liberalization and
• that political change was an issue for the future.
He was pragmatic in not letting ideology about equity restrict policy choices.
• A regionally decentralized competitive system
• with local authorities motivated by growth objectives
• but also subject to competitive pressures
• kept the usual inefficiencies of central planning within tolerable limits.
First came liberalizing agriculture through the 'household responsibility system’
which allowed peasants to produce and sell freely without threatening the interests of urban consumers.

by Yukon Huang
Then industrializing through township village enterprises (TVE) –
• convenient partnerships that co-opted local authorities
• to work with private entrepreneurs, and then
• thirdly establishing special economic zones (SEZs)
• that allowed market forces to erode the rationale
• for controls that benefited local authorities and reoriented production towards expanding trade.
During all three phases,
• Deng encouraged 'private' non-state interests to begin driving growth, while avoiding resistance from Party
ideologues by not formally abandoning socialist principles.
He deliberately promoted a regionally unbalanced growth process targeted to the coastal provinces
• (not the interior where the bulk of the population lived)
• and a shift in macroeconomic aggregates
• which is reflected today in China's unusually low share of consumption to GDP and
• high investment share –
• contrary to Mao-era principles of supremacy of 'balanced regional development’
• and equity before wealth creation.

by Yukon Huang
Today's headlines about China's debt problems and property bubbles
• also have their roots in the approach taken decades ago by Deng
• to fund the country's investment priorities from bank loans rather than through the budget.
China has managed to avoid any major financial crisis and
• never come close to falling into recession;
• regional disparities have moderated in response to natural economic evolution and
• regionally targeted investment policies.
Another guiding principle was
• Krugman's 'new economic geography’ –
• that concentration of labor and
• economic activities in urban areas/regions
• could generate 'agglomeration economies’
• from specialization and economies of scale
• that lead to rapid trade expansion.
China has been spending over 5% of GDP/year over the past several decades on transport
infrastructure.

by Yukon Huang
Two elements incentivized behaviors –
• the promotion process within the system and
• having a tax base linked to production and rising land values,
• which local officials have substantial power to influence.
• Rapid expansion in urban employment opportunities reduced pressures from rural interests.
Eliminating barriers isolating China
led to remarkable change in the openness of the economy –
• trade was 10% of GDP in 1978,
• 65% in the mid-2000s,
• then about 40% by 2015.

by Yukon Huang
Premier Zhu
• closed or privatized hundreds of SOEs and
• put pressure for improved performance on those retained
• ('Grasp the large and release the small.’)
This dual-track approach was a way to deal with
• vested interests
• dominating the industrial sector, and
• the political sensitivity of concerns that the state's role was being eroded.
Private initiatives gradually dominated activities
• seen as not strategically important.
That Premier Zhu was able to deal with the social costs of
• shedding some 30 million workers
• without being derailed by mass protests seen in other countries.
• Both private and state firm profitability benefitted.
Privatization of housing was initiated in the late 1990s,
• and allowed households to buy their homes at concessional prices with the option of eventually selling them.
• This created a market for private housing and explosive growth in construction. The wealth effect spurred
consumption.

CHINA’S 21 CENTURY STRATEGIES
Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power
by Robert D. Kaplan
• On the world maps common in America,
• the Western Hemisphere lies front and center, while the Indian Ocean region all but disappears.
• This convention reveals the geopolitical focus of the now-departed twentieth century,
• but in the twenty-first century that focus will fundamentally change.
• In this pivotal examination of the countries known as
• “Monsoon Asia”—which include
• India
• Pakistan
• China
• Indonesia
• Burma
• Oman
• Sri Lanka
• Bangladesh
• Tanzania

CHINA’S 21 CENTURY STRATEGIES
Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power
by Robert D. Kaplan
Bestselling author Robert D. Kaplan
• shows how crucial this dynamic area has become to American power.
• It is here that the fight for democracy, energy independence, and religious freedom will be lost or won,
• and it is here that American foreign policy
• must concentrate if the United States is to remain relevant
• in an ever-changing world.
From the Horn of Africa to the Indonesian archipelago and beyond,
• Kaplan exposes the effects of
• population growth,
• climate change, and
• extremist politics on this unstable region,
• demonstrating why Americans can no longer afford to ignore this important area of the world.

The South China Sea Disputes: Past, Present, and Future
by Nalanda Roy
• The South China Sea has long been regarded as one of the most complex and challenging ocean-related
maritime disputes in East Asia.
• Recently it has become the locus of disputes that have the potential of escalating into serious international
conflicts.
• Historical mistrust, enduring territorial disputes, and competing maritime claims
• have combined to weaken an at least partially successful regional security structure.
• Issues of concern include
• territorial sovereignty;
• disputed claims to islands, rocks, and reefs;
• jurisdiction over territorial waters,
• exclusive economic zones, and
• the seabed;
• regional and international rights to use the seas for military purposes;
• maritime security;
• rapid economic development; and
• environmental degradation.
The fear is that increasing competition for energy and
• other resources will exacerbate conflicts and
• further fuel nationalism and sovereignty issues in the region.

by Nalanda Roy
The SCS has an integrated ecosystem and is one of the richest seas in the world in terms of
marine flora and fauna:
• coral reefs,
• mangroves,
• sea-grass beds,
• fish, and plants.
National economic security can be easily affected
• by conflicts occurring in major international trade routes like the SCS, or
• how such an unclear situation might even give rise to environmental challenges in the
future.
The book creates an understanding
• as to why this region is important not only to the claimants
• but to global powers like the United States and India.
The book examines current and potential conflicts in the South China Sea,
• and also evaluates how conflicts
• have been “managed” to date and suggests as to how they might be better managed in the
future.

by Nalanda Roy
This book concludes with recommendations for improving the situation in the region
• by ensuring a strong economic relationships,
• using high-resolution observation satellites,
• and undertaking joint development,
• and resource exploration etc.
Editorial Reviews
Competing territorial claims,
• combined with Chinese expansion and
• militarization of the South China Sea,
• make this one of the most potentially dangerous areas of the world.
• Nalanda Roy provides a thoughtful overview of the strategic significance of the region,
• its historical and current disputes,
• the complex international legal and institutional environment,
• and possible avenues to minimize the threat of violent conflict. (Yale H. Ferguson, Rutgers University–
Newark)

by Nalanda Roy
Nalanda Roy’s
• The South China Sea Disputes
• is the only single-author, non-journalistic, and
• up-to-date comprehensive monograph on the topic so far.
• This book is recommended for scholarly and academic libraries and would be eminently suitable for
graduate and undergraduate courses on international and security issues in Asia.
• It is an indispensable source on the topic, and I strongly endorse it. (Jacek Lubecki, Georgia Southern University)
This book is an informative source for anyone trying to comprehend the complexity of East and Southeast Asia.
• Nalanda Roy’s work is admirable both for its breadth and its specificity.
• This study meticulously explains the intricate details of current political circumstances within the context of broad
historical trends.
• Readers will gain insights not only into sea disputes but also the functioning of ASEAN and key individuals in Asian
and global politics.
• More generally, the book helps us to understand the South China Sea as not only a geographic area but also a
political phenomenon that evolves tenuously according to the interests and machinations of a multitude of
actors. (Dwight Haase, University of Toledo)
• This timely and comprehensive study on the South China Sea disputes is a noteworthy addition to the existing
literature on the subject.

by Nalanda Roy
• It’s an indispensable guide that provides wonderful insights into this volatile matter and its ramifications in a clear,
succinct, and compact manner and could be a treasure-trove for its readers. (Tridib Chakraborti, Jadavpur
University)
About the Author
• Nalanda Roy is assistant professor at Armstrong State University.

Asia's Reckoning: China, Japan, and the Fate of U.S. Power in the Pacific Century
by Richard McGregor
• A history of the combative military, diplomatic, and economic relations among
• China, Japan, and the United States since the 1970s—
• and the potential crisis that awaits them
• Richard McGregor’s Asia’s Reckoning I
• s a compelling account of the widening geopolitical cracks in a region that has flourished under an American security
umbrella for more than half a century.
• The toxic rivalry between China and Japan,
• two Asian giants
• consumed with endless history wars and ruled by entrenched political dynasties,
• is threatening to upend the peace underwritten by Pax Americana since World War II.
• Combined with Donald Trump’s disdain for America’s old alliances and
• China's own regional ambitions,
• east Asia is entering a new era of instability and conflict.
• If the United States laid the postwar foundations for modern Asia,
• now the anchor of the global economy, Asia’s Reckoning reveals how that structure is falling apart.

by Richard McGregor
• A history of the combative military, diplomatic, and economic relations among China, Japan, and the United
States since the 1970s—and the potential crisis that awaits them
• With unrivaled access to archives in the United States and Asia,
• as well as to many of the major players in all three countries,
• Richard McGregor has written a tale that blends
• the tectonic shifts in diplomacy
• with bitter domestic politics and
• the personalities driving them.
• It is a story not only of an overstretched America, but also of the rise and fall and rise of the great powers of Asia.
• The about-turn of Japan—
• from a colossus seemingly poised for world domination
• to a nation in inexorable decline in the space of two decades—
• has few parallels in modern history,
• as does the rapid rise of China

by Richard McGregor
• A history of the combative military, diplomatic, and economic relations among China, Japan, and the United
States since the 1970s—and the potential crisis that awaits them
• a country whose military is now larger than those of
• Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and southeast Asia's combined.
• The confrontational course on which China and Japan are set
• is no simple spat between neighbors:
• the United States would be involved on the side of Japan in any military conflict between the two countries.
• The fallout would be an economic tsunami,
• affecting manufacturing centers, trade routes, and political capitals on every continent.
• Richard McGregor’s book takes us behind the headlines of his years reporting as the Financial Times’s Beijing and
Washington bureau chief
• to show how American power will stand or fall on its ability to hold its ground in Asia.

Editorial Reviews
• “McGregor has written a shrewd and knowing book about the relationship between
• China, Japan and America over the past half-century.
• Among much else, he shows how the world’s top three economies are now imprisoned by increasingly unstable
dynamics, and not only in the military realm.
• Though Mr. McGregor has pored over archives to put together a hard-to-surpass narrative history of high diplomacy
in Asia, the strength of his book is its old-fashioned journalism, in which empathy and explanation outweigh mere
exposé.
• Indeed, Asia’s Reckoning has the aura of a ‘tour-ender,’ the kind of conspectus that foreign correspondents of a
generation ago and further back would put together after they had finished a multiyear stint in some far-flung place.
Here are insightful, detail-rich profiles of everyone from
• Zhou Enlai and Henry Kissinger to Kakuei Tanaka and Jiang Zemin.”
—Robert D. Kaplan, The Wall Street Journal
“A well-documented account of the post-war triangular relations between China, Japan and America. . . . McGregor
[has] access to a range of archives and memoirs beyond the reach and nuanced comprehension of most other
scholars.
• His narrative of relations and contacts between the leading politicians and policy-makers in both [China and Japan],
and of America’s interplay with the two, makes for a compelling and impressive read. One notable feature is how
often the Americans,
• from Henry Kissinger to Barack Obama,
• seem to find their close Japanese allies
• more irritating and harder to understand than their Chinese counterparts,
• even as a rising China is coming to be seen as America’s greatest 21st-century challenger.”
—The Economist

• “Sometimes a crisis hits that reminds us of the need to think in terms of the interplay between multiple centers of
power, and of the value of books that do not confine themselves to bilateral relations.
• The current furor over North Korea is one such crisis, and Richard McGregor’s skillfully crafted and well-argued
• Asia’s Reckoning is a good example of the sort of book I have in mind. . . . The great strength of Asia’s Reckoning,
indeed, is that it encourages the reader to look for continuities amid apparent dramatic change, as well as subtle
changes amid apparent continuity.
• McGregor helps us appreciate the areas where leaders of the US, Japan and China find it easiest and hardest to
find common ground.
• He also sensitizes us
• to the complex ways in which the ratcheting up or loosening of tensions between Washington and Tokyo or Beijing
• inevitably affects the strategies of leaders based in the other east Asian capital. . . .
• An engaging, timely book that provides a nice complement to important recent studies focusing on two points of the
US-China-Japan triangle.”
—Jeffrey Wasserstrom, Financial Times

• “McGregor warns against underestimating
• the historic tensions between China and Japan.
• Trade and tourism may run smoothly between the two pragmatic, business-minded nations, but deep,
mutual dislike simmers under the surface.
• McGregor says it would not take much of a trigger to disrupt the region’s tentative peace. . . .
• An excellent modern history book that
• explains the roots of the complex political, business and
• military ties between major superpowers.
• In an age of rocky global politics, Asia’s Reckoning provides the context needed to make sense of the region’s
present and future.”
—Joyce Lau, South China Morning Post
• “McGregor deploys interviews with heavy hitters from all three countries and cites extensive archival research
to provide readers with a comprehensive look at this often misunderstood trilateral relationship.
• Whether it’s Chinese Communist Party founder Mao Zedong
• thanking Tokyo for its invasion of his country,
• or Japan’s fears of being replaced by China as America’s top partner in Asia,

• “or Henry Kissinger’s intense distaste for Tokyo’s droll diplomats,
• McGregor mixes in one little-known anecdote after another to pull readers through his narrative. . . .
• Balanced and insightful, the book goes the extra mile to delve into the minutiae of the relationships, taking readers
• beyond mere Japanese peculiarities, Chinese propaganda and American stereotypes. . . .
• This is an astute take on the three nations’ modern ties,
• serving up a much-needed and often overlooked helping of the context necessary for making sense of Asia
complexities.”
—Jesse Johnson, Japan Times

• “McGregor, an absorbing storyteller, [takes] the reader behind the curtains to witness how the history of China’s ties
with Japan and the US unfolded after World War II. . . .
• [His] precise observations and incisive analyses of the dynamics in the China-Japan-United States relationship are
valuable.”
—Cheong Suk-Wai, The Straits Times
• “A must read for anyone who wants to understand our future.
• Asia’s Reckoning provides a detailed picture of the slow military, diplomatic and economic waltz between
China, Japan and the United States that determined the shape of the past half-century. . . .
• The framework that previously determined the contours of our international engagement is changing. McGregor [is]
dealing with a subject that’s crucial—
• China’s place in the world—but does so in an intimate manner, bulging with insightful interviews with the players
behind the scenes.”
—Nicholas Stuart, Brisbane Times
“McGregor shows that U.S. diplomats and military strategists have deftly played the Sino-Japanese rivalry in the Pax
Americana period since the end of the Cold War.
• However, he is concerned that the tightrope is becoming frayed and that if it breaks, all three performers could be in
for a terrible fall. . . . [Asia’s Reckoning] has anecdotes and insights that will delight policy wonks interested in the
region.”
—Gary Anderson, The Washington Times

• “In spite of the recent crisis with North Korea, the critical relationship for Asian peace and stability in the 21st century
will be the trilateral balance between
• China, Japan, and the United States.
• In spite of the economic interdependence of these nations,
• their domestic politics and foreign policies often clash with their trade interests,
• and the rise of China as both an economic and military power
• now threatens to upend the entire East Asia security structure. . . .
• This book is an essential primer for anyone seeking to understand the complicated brew of history, politics, and
prejudices that make this area of the globe one of the most likely flashpoints of the 21st century.”
—Jeremy Lenaburg, New York Journal of Books

• “McGregor anatomizes the dynamic, often strained trilateral relationship between China, Japan, and the U.S. since
WWII.
• His informed volume comes at a time when, in his opinion, East Asia sits at the heart of the global economy and
China’s aggressive foreign policy is upsetting the region’s stability. . . .
• Often critical of Washington’s ‘combination of idealism and arrogance,’ McGregor offers detailed, vivid descriptions
of America’s Asian diplomacy. . . .
• Reviewing East Asia's toxic rivalries with balance and insight, McGregor’s survey concludes ominously with
President Trump’s lack of familiarity with regional issues and disdain for old alliances, portending further tensions in
East Asia’s future.”
—Publishers Weekly
“[A] wide-ranging study of China’s re-emergence as a regional power in Asia after a long hiatus, thwarting the
designs of other powers, including the United States and Russia. . . .
• The U.S. [finds itself] firmly ensnared in the so-called Thucydides trap, ‘the principle that it is dangerous to build an
empire but even more dangerous to let it go.’
• So it is, and the current leadership appears to be at a loss about what to do or to formulate other aspects of any
coherent policy in and toward Asia. . . .
• Geopolitics wonks will want to give attention to this urgent but nonsensationalized argument.”
—Kirkus Reviews

• “The United States, China, and Japan form the power triangle that will shape much of the international politics in the
21st century.
• Richard McGregor’s masterful The Party illuminated one corner of that triangle—China.
• In this important book he describes how the other two corners have interacted with China since World War
II.
• Lucid, insightful and ominous, as the author describes big trouble ahead.”
—Eliot Cohen, author of Supreme Command
• “Richard McGregor’s new book is essential reading for anyone worried about the most fraught relationship in Asia—
between China and Japan.
• With extensive experience in and knowledge of both China, Japan, and the United States,
• McGregor is in a unique position to unpack the relationship and sort through the extensive propaganda and myth-
making on all sides. A great read!”
—John Pomfret, author of The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom

• “ “McGregor distills years of meetings with high officials in China and Japan to give a vivid nuanced picture of their
relations in the 21st century.”
—Ezra Vogel, author of Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China
• “An in-depth depiction of radical changes and challenges in Japan-China relations in the post-war period, thoroughly
researched and rich in storytelling.
• In the course of tumultuous relations with China,
• Japan has had to trail blaze in the face of the rise of China.
• Japan’s naked exposure to the unfolding Realpolitik with China
• at its core is for the first time comprehensively reviewed.”
—Yoichi Funabashi, former Editor-in-Chief, Asahi Shimbun
• “McGregor, an absorbing storyteller, [takes] the reader
• behind the curtains to witness how the history of China’s ties with Japan and the US unfolded after World
War II. . . .
• [His] precise observations and incisive analyses of the dynamics in the China-Japan-United States
relationship are valuable.”
—Cheong Suk-Wai, The Straits Times

• “A must read for anyone who wants to understand our future.
• Asia’s Reckoning provides a detailed picture of the slow military, diplomatic and economic waltz between China,
Japan and the United States that determined the shape of the past half-century. . . .
• The framework that previously determined the contours of our international engagement is changing.
• McGregor [is] dealing with a subject that’s crucial—China’s place in the world—but does so in an intimate
manner, bulging with insightful interviews with the players behind the scenes.”
• “McGregor shows that U.S. diplomats and military strategists have deftly played the Sino-Japanese rivalry
in the Pax Americana period
• since the end of the Cold War.
• However, he is concerned that the tightrope is becoming frayed and that if it breaks, all three performers
could be in for a terrible fall. . . .
• [Asia’s Reckoning] has anecdotes and insights that will delight policy wonks interested in the region.”

• “A must read for anyone who wants to understand our future. Asia’s Reckoning provides a detailed picture of the
slow military, diplomatic and
• economic waltz between China, Japan and the United States that determined the shape of the past half-century. . . .
• The framework that previously determined the contours of our international engagement is changing. McGregor [is]
dealing with a subject that’s crucial—
• China’s place in the world—but does so in an intimate manner, bulging with insightful interviews with the players
behind the scenes.”
• “McGregor shows that U.S. diplomats and military strategists have deftly played the Sino-Japanese rivalry in the Pax
Americana period since the end of the Cold War.
• However, he is concerned that the tightrope is becoming frayed and that if it breaks, all three performers could be in
for a terrible fall. . . .
• [Asia’s Reckoning] has anecdotes and insights that will delight policy wonks interested in the region.”

• “In spite of the recent crisis with North Korea, the critical relationship for Asian peace and stability in the 21st century
• will be the trilateral balance between China, Japan, and the United States.
• In spite of the economic interdependence of these nations,
• their domestic politics and foreign policies
• often clash with their trade interests, and
• the rise of China as both an economic and military power now threatens to upend the entire East Asia
security structure. . . .
• This book is an essential primer for anyone seeking to understand the complicated brew of history, politics, and
prejudices that make this area of the globe one of the most likely flashpoints of the 21st century.”
—Jeremy Lenaburg, New York Journal of Books

• “McGregor anatomizes the dynamic, often strained trilateral relationship between China, Japan, and the U.S. since
WWII.
• His informed volume comes at a time when, in his opinion,
• East Asia sits at the heart of the global economy and China’s aggressive foreign policy is upsetting the region’s
stability. . . .
• Often critical of Washington’s ‘combination of idealism and arrogance,’ McGregor offers detailed, vivid descriptions
of America’s Asian diplomacy. . . .
• Reviewing East Asia's toxic rivalries with balance and insight, McGregor’s survey concludes ominously with
• President Trump’s lack of familiarity with regional issues and
• disdain for old alliances, portending further tensions in East Asia’s future.”
—Publishers Weekly

• “[A] wide-ranging study of China’s re-emergence as a regional power in Asia after a long hiatus, thwarting the
designs of other powers, including the United States and Russia. . . .
• The U.S. [finds itself] firmly ensnared in the so-called Thucydides trap,
• ‘the principle that it is dangerous to build an empire but even more dangerous to let it go.’
• So it is, and the current leadership appears to be at a loss about what to do or to formulate other aspects of any
coherent policy in and toward Asia. . . .
• Geopolitics wonks will want to give attention to this urgent but nonsensationalized argument.”
—Kirkus Reviews
“The United States, China, and Japan form the power triangle that will shape much of the international politics in the
21st century. Richard McGregor’s masterful
• The Party illuminated one corner of that triangle—
• China. In this important book he describes
• how the other two corners have interacted with China since World War II.
• Lucid, insightful and ominous, as the author describes big trouble ahead.”
—Eliot Cohen, author of Supreme Command

• “Richard McGregor’s new book is essential reading for anyone worried about the most fraught relationship in Asia—
• between China and Japan. With extensive experience in and knowledge of bothChina, Japan, and the United
States,
• McGregor is in a unique position to unpack the relationship and sort through the extensive propaganda and myth-
making on all sides. A great read!”
—John Pomfret, author of The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom
• “McGregor distills years of meetings with high officials in China and Japan to give a vivid nuanced picture of their
relations in the 21st century.”
—Ezra Vogel, author of Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China
• “An in-depth depiction of radical changes and challenges in Japan-China relations in the post-war period,
thoroughly researched and rich in storytelling.
• In the course of tumultuous relations with China, Japan has had to trail blaze in the face of the rise of China.
• Japan’s naked exposure to the unfolding Realpolitik with China at its core
• is for the first time comprehensively reviewed.”
—Yoichi Funabashi, former Editor-in-Chief, Asahi Shimbun

• About the Author
• Richard McGregor is a journalist and an author with extensive experience in reporting from east Asia and
Washington.
• A 2015 fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C.,
• his work has appeared in the International Herald Tribune and Foreign Policy and he has appeared on the Charlie
Rose show, the BBC, and NPR.
• His previous book, The Party, won numerous awards,
• including the 2011 Asia Society book of the year and the Asian book of the year prize from Japan’s Mainichi
Shimbun.
• Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
• There is no shortage of scenarios in which America’s postwar world comes under challenge and starts to crack.
• It could take the form of a draining showdown with Islamist radicals in the Middle East,
• a conflict with Russia that engulfs Europe,
• or a one-on-one superpower naval battle with China.
• Soon after his election, Donald Trump finished his first conversation as president-elect with Barack Obama at the
White House
• fretting about the threat from a nuclear-armed North Korea.
• In daily headlines, the jousting between China and Japan
• can’t compete with the medieval violence of ISIS or the outsize antics of Vladimir Putin or threats from
tyrants like Kim Jong Un.
• The rivalry between the two countries has festered, by some measures, for centuries, giving it a quality that lets it
slip on and off the radar.
• After all, China and Japan, according to the conventional wisdom, are at their core practical nations with pragmatic

• The two countries, along with Taiwan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, sit at the heart of the global
economy.
• The iPhones, personal computers, and flat-screen televisions in electronic shops around the world; most
of the mass-produced furniture and large amounts of the cheap clothing that fill shopping centers in the
United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom;
• a vast array of industrial goods that consumers are scarcely aware of, from wires and valves to machine
parts and the like—
• all of them, one way or another, are sourced through the supply chains anchored by Asia’s two giants.
• With so much at stake, how could they possibly come to blows?
• China and Japan’s thriving commercial ties, one of the largest two-way trade relationships in the world, though,
have failed to forge a closer political bond.
• In recent years, the relationship has taken on new and dangerous dimensions for both countries, and for the
United States as well, an ally of Japan’s that it has signed a treaty to defend.
• Far from exorcising memories of the brutal war between them that began in the early 1930s and lasted more than a
decade,
• Japan and China are caught in a downward spiral of distrust and ill will.
• There has been the occasional thawing of tension and the odd uptick in diplomacy in the seventy years since the
end of the war.
• Men and women of goodwill in both countries have dedicated their careers to improving relations. Most of these
efforts, however, have come to naught.

• Asia’s version of the War of the Roses is being fought on multiple battlefields:
• on the high seas over disputed islands;
• in capitals around the world as each tries to convince partners and allies of the other’s infamy;
• and in the media, in the relentless, self-righteous, and scorching exchanges over the true account and legacy of the
Pacific War.
• The clash between Japan and China on this issue echoes a conversation between two Allied prisoners of war in
• Richard Flanagan’s garlanded novel set on the Burma Railway in 1943,
• The Narrow Road to the Deep North.
• “Memory is the true justice, sir,” a soldier says to his superior officer, explaining why he wants to hold on to
souvenirs of their time in a Japanese internment camp. “Or the creator of new horrors,” the officer replies.
• In Europe, an acknowledgment of World War II’s calamities helped bring the Continent’s nations together in
the aftermath of the conflict.
• In east Asia, by contrast, the war and its history have never been settled, politically, diplomatically, or emotionally.
• There has been little of the introspection and statesmanship that helped Europe to heal its wounds.
• Even the most basic of disagreements over history still percolate through day-to-day media coverage in Asia more
than seventy years later, in baffling, insidious ways.
• Open a Japanese newspaper in 2017, and you might read of a heated debate about whether Japan invaded China,
something that is only an issue
• because conservative Japanese still insist that their country was fighting a war of self-Defense in the
1930s and 1940s.

• Peruse the state-controlled press in China, and you will see the Communist Party drawing legitimacy from
its heroic defeat of Japan,
• though in truth, Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists carried the burden of fighting the invaders,
• while the Communists mostly preserved their strength in hinterland hideouts.
• Scant recognition is given to the United States, who fought the Japanese for years before ending the
conflict with two atomic bombs.
• Although the United States and Japan are for the moment firm allies,
• the trilateral relationship among Washington, Tokyo, and Beijing
• has been fraught and complex in ways that are little understood and appreciated, often even inside the countries
themselves.
• Each of the three, China, Japan, and the United States,
• at different times has tried to use one of the others to gain an ascendancy in regional diplomacy in the last
century.
• Each at different times has felt betrayed by the others.
• All have tried to leverage their relations with one of the others at the expense of the third.
• In that respect, the relationship is like a geopolitical version of the scene in the movie
• Reservoir Dogs in which a trio of antagonists all simultaneously point guns at one another, creating a
circle of dangerous, cascading threats.

• In the east Asian version of this scenario,
• the United States has its arsenal trained on China.
• China, in turn, menaces Japan and the United States.
• In ways that are rarely noticed,
• Japan completes the triangle with its hold over the United States.
• If Tokyo were to lose faith in Washington and
• downgrade its alliance or trigger a conflict with Beijing,
• the effect would be the same: to upend the postwar system.
• In this trilateral game of chicken,
• only one of the parties needs to fire its weapons for all three to be thrown into war.
• Put another way,
• if China is the key to Asia,
• then Japan is the key to China, and
• the United States the key to Japan.
• I left Tokyo for Hong Kong and China in 1995 after a five-year posting as a newspaper correspondent,
• soon after Japan’s then prime minister issued a heartfelt apology for the war.
• At the time, I remember feeling relieved that the issue seemed to have finally been put to rest.
• The history wars, though, far from ending, were just getting started.

• Over the ensuing two decades, under pressure from the Chinese Communist Party and
• abetted by Japanese revisionists,
• the same old issues have remained stuck on the front lines of regional politics.
• Like east Asia more generally,
• the story of Japan and China is one of stunning economic success and dangerous political failure.
• China in particular has a whiff of the Balkans,
• where many young people
• have a way of vividly remembering wars
• they never actually experienced.
• A sense of revenge, of unfinished business, lingers in the system.
• It may not require a war, of course,
• to deliver the last rites for Pax Americana.
• Washington could simply turn its back on the world
• under an isolationist president,
• a president, in other words, who simply did what Donald Trump promised to do on the campaign trail.
• America could also slip into unruly decline,
• with a weaker economy resulting in bits of empire, no longer financially sustainable, dropping off here and there.

• Alternatively, of course, Pax Americana in Asia could survive,
• with a resilient U.S. economy and
• refreshed alliances robust enough to hold off an indebted and internally focused China.
• Indeed, it is unlikely that the United States will leave the region quietly.
• As Michael Green, a former U.S. government official,
• notes, over more than a century in the Asia- Pacific,
• Washington has beaten back quests for regional dominance
• “from the European powers, Imperial Japan and Soviet Communism.”
• The specter of a renewed Sinocentric order in Asia,
• though, is upending the regional status quo for good, whatever path the United States might take.

• Geopolitically,
• the three countries have increasingly become two,
• with Japan aligning itself more tightly with the United States
• than at any time in the seven decades–
• plus since the war.
• China, too, has changed.
• Once, Beijing begrudgingly accepted America’s Asian alliances
• as a tool to keep the Soviets at bay and stabilize the region.
• Since the end of the cold war, its attitude has shifted, from frustration with America’s enduring military footprint in
Asia to outright rejection of the alliances as “cold war relics” that threaten China’s security.
• As its power has grown,
• China has begun building a new regional order, with Beijing at the center in place of Washington.
• The battle lines are clear.
• For decades, the United States has set its forward defensive line against rival hegemons in the region in different
places
• before establishing it firmly along and around the Japanese archipelago, where it stands today.

Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry – March 31, 2015
by Lyle J. Goldstein
• Though a US–China conflict is far from inevitable,
• major tensions are building in the Asia-Pacific region.
• These strains are the result of historical enmity, cultural divergence, and deep ideological estrangement, not to
mention apprehensions fueled by geopolitical competition and the closely related "security dilemma."
• Despite worrying signs of intensifying rivalry between Washington and Beijing, few observers have provided
concrete paradigms to lead this troubled relationship away from disaster.
• Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry is dramatically different from any
other book about US-China relations.
• Lyle J. Goldstein's explicit focus in almost every chapter is on laying bare both US and Chinese perceptions of
where their interests clash and proposing new paths to ease bilateral tensions through compromise.
• Each chapter contains a "cooperation spiral"―the opposite of an escalation spiral―to illustrate the policy proposals.
• Goldstein not only parses findings from the latest American scholarship but also breaks new ground by analyzing
hundreds of Chinese-language sources, including military publications, never before evaluated by Western experts.
• Goldstein makes one hundred policy proposals over the course of this book,
• not because these are the only solutions to arresting the alarming course toward conflict, but rather to inaugurate a
genuine debate regarding cooperative policy solutions to the most vexing problems in US-China relations.

• Review
• "Lyle Goldstein's book on China delivers a bracing synthesis on the dangers the United States faces and the options
it has in the face of China's military rise. It will be required reading for Asia specialists."―
• Robert Kaplan, author of Asia's Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific and chief
geopolitical analyst for Stratfor
• "Although Beijing and Washington have agreed to build a new model of big power relations to free China and the US
from the so-called 'Thucydides trap' with the established power and the emerging power colliding inexorably, their
strategic mistrust continues to worsen and the rivalry has intensified.
• Lyle Goldstein is in a unique position to witness firsthand in both Washington and Beijing the rising distrust and
produced this unique book to explore the new paths of US–China relations leading toward the cooperation spirals
and avoiding escalation spirals.
• A timely and compelling work, must read for anyone interested in the most important bilateral relations and great
power politics in the 21st century."―
• Suisheng Zhao, director, Center for China–US Cooperation, editor of the Journal of Contemporary China, University
of Denver
• "The downward spiral in US–China relations is the most dangerous trend in international politics.
• Preventing it from ending in crisis, miscalculation, and war should be the highest priority.
• Lyle Goldstein brings not just punditry but genuine expertise on China to the problem, and applies impressive energy
to finding a way out.
• His ambitious exploration of 'cooperation spirals' will be controversial, should provoke sharp debate about options for
conflict avoidance, and deserves attention because it is among the few optimistic approaches that engage the
obstacles to peace rather than dismissing them."―
• Richard Betts, director, Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, Columbia University

• "The most consequential dyad in an increasingly polycentric world is the Sino-American
relationship. But this relationship is strategically and intellectually in irons and drifting toward
possible shipwreck.
• Goldstein offers a gale of fresh thinking to redirect it toward mutually advantageous problem
solving.
• He addresses apparently intractable problems with meticulous research and uncommon ingenuity,
drawing on Chinese as well as American sources. His recommendations balance suggested actions
by both countries.
• Meeting China Halfway is thus a very thought-provoking manual for the re-imagination of
engagement between America and China.
• Its proposals are clear and specific and invite those inclined to inaction to come up with better
alternatives."―Ambassador Chas W. Freeman, Jr. (USFS, Ret.), Former Assistant Secretary of
Defense for International Security Affairs
• "In this important book, Lyle Goldstein provides a clear and detailed argument for how the US and
China can move into a more cooperative relationship and avoid the very real danger of inadvertent
conflict. . . .
• Moving far beyond sterile debates about whether to contain or engage China, Meeting China
Halfway represents one of the most sophisticated accounts of East Asian international relations to
appear in recent years.
• An essential book for anyone wishing to understand and influence how the US-China relationship
might evolve in the future."―David C. Kang, University of Southern California

• "Lyle Goldstein takes the debate about US–China relations in a quite new and vitally important direction.
• Combining deep scholarship with a keen sense of practical policy, he offers a detailed plan for the two powers to
step back from escalating rivalry through mutual accommodation.
• Sooner or later, if America and China are to stay at peace, they will have to take steps very much like those
Goldstein proposes. And the sooner the better."―
• Hugh White, Australian National University
• "Meeting China Halfway is a serious and thoughtful attempt to guide the US-China rivalry away from militarized and
zero-sum confrontation and toward policies that would be helpful not only bilaterally but more generally to East Asia
and the world.
• Goldstein is a senior analyst of Chinese maritime policy who is well known for his familiarity with Chinese writing on
security and environmental issues.
• He brings both a wealth of Chinese sourcing to the project and, more importantly, a respect for China as an
intelligent counterpart with distinctive perspectives."―
• Brantly Womack, professor of foreign affairs and C.K. Yen Chair, the Miller Center at the University of Virginia,
author of China among Unequals: Asymmetric Foreign Relations in Asia
• "Lyle Goldstein is one of the foremost analysts in America today of the growing US-China security competition.
• This book presents a detailed and perceptive assessment of the forces driving this competition and offers what will
undoubtedly become a highly controversial set of recommendations for mitigating it.
• Although some observers will likely take issue with many of Goldstein's proposals, they cannot avoid consideration
of his fundamental argument regarding the need to develop far-reaching, practical means of mutual reassurance in
this crucially important relationship.
• This work should stimulate a much-needed debate."―
• Michael Swaine, senior associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

• Review
• "Goldstein proposes a bold call for the US―accommodate China's interests in Asia instead of clinging to the status
quo.
• Based on his thorough research in Chinese writings, Goldstein proposes mutual compromises to set in motion a
spiral of cooperation. This valuable book will frame the China policy debate for years to come."―
• Susan Shirk, Chair, 21st Century China Program, UC-San Diego
• "Libraries are filled with history books, ancient and modern, describing the 'road' to wars. Here is a book that maps
an altogether different road, one that just might help avoid needless conflict.
• What makes Lyle Goldstein's achievement so impressive is the specificity of his prescription.
• Bold and imaginative, his analysis is also concrete and actionable.
• If Washington and Beijing give Meeting China Halfway even half the attention it deserves, the result will be to
reframe the Sino-American relationship."―
• Andrew J. Bacevich, professor of history and international relations emeritus, Boston University
• "This book is admirable for both breadth and depth, examining an exhaustive spectrum of the issue areas that both
drive and condition rivalry between the United States and China.
• The author does a remarkable job at driving home his urging for a 'cooperation spiral’.
• A sensible and practicable guide away from making conflict a viable choice."―
• Zha Daojiong, professor, School of International Studies, Peking University

• Review
• "Creative thinking, innovative ideas. . . . While one may not agree to everything Lyle Goldstein wrote in this
imaginative book, he did a great job in broadening our scope in thinking about how to build toward a new type of
major power relationship between China and the United States.
• Mutual compromise, mutual adaptation, mutual accommodation, those steps he recommended are not easy for both
sides, but if taken, the end result would be win-win.“
• Wu Xinbo, professor and director Center for American Studies, Fudan University
• "If one foresees the future of this key bilateral relationship to be a protracted negotiation,
• Goldstein's proposal of spirals of cooperation lays out a plausible way to take constructive steps. His ideas merit
serious thought and discussion.“
• Joseph Prueher, (USN, Ret.)
• "In this painstakingly researched book, Dr. Goldstein provides valuable insight into the often overlooked Chinese
point of view on a range of important issues facing the bilateral relationship today.
• His 'cooperation spirals,' concrete policy recommendations,
• provide specific steps through which Washington and Beijing could come to a better understanding on many key
issues from regional relationships to the environment, ultimately leading to a more stable and peaceful world.
• Dr. Goldstein's approach highlights the range of cooperative steps that could be taken to build trust and
transparency on both sides.
• Wherever one falls on the debate over how to shape US-China relations,
• this book is an important and unique addition to the China field, and it should be considered by policymakers in both
Washington and Beijing."―
• Kirsten Gunness, senior policy analyst

• Review
• ""In this painstakingly researched book,
• Dr. Goldstein provides valuable insight into the often overlooked Chinese point of view on a
range of important issues facing the bilateral relationship today.
• His 'cooperation spirals,' concrete policy recommendations,
• provide specific steps through which Washington and Beijing
• could come to a better understanding on many key issues
• from regional relationships
• to the environment,
• ultimately leading to a more stable and peaceful world.
• Dr. Goldstein's approach highlights the range of cooperative steps
• that could be taken to build trust and transparency on both sides.
• Wherever one falls on the debate over how to shape US-China relations,
• this book is an important and unique addition to the China field, and it should be considered by
policymakers in both Washington and Beijing.“
• Kirsten Gunness, senior policy analyst

• "This important new book pulls it all together:
• the forces that drive United States and China toward a war;
• the facts that reveal that these two nations have many shared interests and
• few valid reasons to confront each other; and specific and valuable suggestions
• about moves both sides
• can make to pull away from a major catastrophic confrontation.
• Well written and thoroughly documented.
• A book for academics, policy makers, and concerned citizens alike.“
• Amitai Etzioni, University Professor at George Washington University and author of
• Security First: For a Muscular, Moral Foreign Policy

The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global
Superpower
by Michael Pillsbury
• One of the U.S. government's leading China experts reveals the hidden strategy fueling
that country's rise – and how Americans have been seduced into helping China
overtake us as the world's leading superpower.
• For more than forty years,
• the United States has played an indispensable role helping the Chinese government
• build a booming economy, develop its scientific and military capabilities, and take its place on
the world stage,
• in the belief that China's rise will bring us cooperation, diplomacy, and free trade.
• But what if the "China Dream" is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire,
without firing a shot?
• Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed
national security documents,
• The Hundred-Year Marathon
• reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power,
• and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's
Republic.

The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global
Superpower
• Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the
• U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger,
• draws on his decades of contact with the "hawks" in China's military and intelligence agencies and
• translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese
statecraft underpin their actions.
• He offers an inside look at how the Chinese really view America and its leaders – as barbarians who will
be the architects of their own demise.
• Pillsbury also explains how the U.S. government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes
deliberately –
• to make this "China Dream" come true,
• and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it
really is, and not as we might wish it to be.
• The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the
twenty-first century.

The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower
• Review
• #1 National Bestseller
• “China’s ambition to become the world’s dominant power has been there all along, virtually burned into the
country’s cultural DNA and hiding, as [Pillsbury] says, in plain sight… The author is correct to assert that
China constitutes, by far, the biggest national challenge to America’s position in the world today.”―The Wall
Street Journal
• “Provocative…. detailed and rigorous. [Pillsbury is] right that for Washington, assessing the nature of China’s
ambition, and responding to it effectively, may be the central foreign policy challenge of our
time.”―Newsweek
• “Pungently written and rich in detail, this book deserves to enter the mainstream of
debate over the future of U.S. Chinese relations.”―Foreign Affairs
• “The Hundred-Year Marathon looks at the critical issues of who is in fact making policy in the Chinese capital
and, as a result, it will be read, analyzed and debated for years. Think of Pillsbury as our time’s Paul
Revere.”―Gordon Chang, The National Interest
• “This is a highly engaging and thought-provoking read. It does what few books do well, and that is to mix
scholarship, policy, and memoir-style writing in an accessible but still intellectually rich fashion. . . .
• Pillsbury . . . draw[s] on his extensive knowledge of Chinese historical military writings and theory as well as
his interactions with Chinese defectors and senior military officers to develop a compelling analytical defense
of this thesis. . . . In the end, whether you agree with Pillsbury or not, the book is well worth a careful
read.”―Elizabeth Economy, Council on Foreign Relations
• “Despite dealing with a weighty subject, Pillsbury says everything that he wants to say . . . [in] this highly
readable book. It deserves to be widely read and debated.”―The Christian Science Monitor

• “Pillsbury’s scholarship is buttressed by an eye-popping amount of declassified material…. Pillsbury’s
key claim [is] that China… is methodically undertaking a ‘hundred-year marathon’ strategy to displace
the United States as the global hegemon…
• The time is ripe to examine the trajectory of American relations with the world’s second-largest economy
[and] the marathon is hardly over.”―The Weekly Standard
• “Following the Communist victory in the Chinese civil war, Americans agonized over ‘Who lost China?’
• If we do not recognize the Chinese party-state for the predatory animal that it is, in 20 years the question
we will be asking ourselves is ‘Who lost the world?’ The answer will be, ‘We did.’”―The Washington
Times
• “A presentation of China’s hidden agenda grounded in the author’s longtime work at the U.S. Defense
Department…. Fodder for concerned thought.”―Kirkus Reviews
• “This is without question the most important book written about Chinese strategy and foreign policy in
years.
• Michael Pillsbury has spent more than four decades for the Pentagon and the CIA talking to and learning
from a core of Chinese ‘hard-liners’ who may be the driving force behind Chinese foreign policy today
under Xi Jinping.
• Based on meticulous scholarship and written in lively, engaging prose, this book offers a sobering
corrective to what has long been the dominant, soothing narrative of Sino-American
cooperation.”―Robert Kagan, author of The World America Made and Of Paradise and Power
• “A provocative exploration of the historical sources of China’s grand strategy to become #1.”―Graham
Allison, Director of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

• “Michael Pillsbury has been meeting with, talking to, and studying the ‘hawks’ in
China’s military and intelligence apparatus for more than four decades, since back
when America and China were cooperating against the Soviet Union.
• In this fascinating, provocative new book, he lays out the hawks’ views about the
United States and their long-term strategies for overcoming American power by the
middle of this century.
• In the process, the book challenges the wrong-headed assumptions in Washington
about a gradually reforming China.
• Given the direction China has been taking in the past few years, Pillsbury’s book takes
on immediate relevance.”
• James Mann, author of About Face: A History of America’s Curious Relationship with
China, The China Fantasy, and Beijing Jeep
• “The Hundred-Year Marathon is based on work that Michael Pillsbury did for the CIA
that landed him the Director’s Exceptional Performance Award.
• It is a fascinating chronicle of his odyssey from the ranks of the ‘panda-huggers’ to a
principled, highly informed, and lonely stance alerting us to China’s long-term strategy
of achieving dominance.

• “He shows that we face a clever, entrenched, and ambitious potential enemy,
suffused with the shrewdness of Sun Tzu conducting a determined search for
the best way to sever our Achilles’ heel.
• We have vital work to do, urgently.”―R. James Woolsey, former Director of
Central Intelligence and chairman of the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies
• Michael Pillsbury is the director of the Center on Chinese Strategy at the
• Hudson Institute and has served in presidential administrations from Richard
Nixon to Barack Obama.
• Educated at Stanford and Columbia Universities,
• he is a former analyst at the RAND Corporation and research fellow at Harvard
and has served in senior positions in the Defense Department and on the staff
of four U.S. Senate committees.
• He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the International
Institute for Strategic Studies. He lives in Washington, D.C.

Everything Under the Heavens: How the Past Helps Shape China's Push for Global Power
by Howard W. French
• From the former New York Times Asia correspondent and author of China's Second Continent,
• an incisive investigation of China's ideological development as it becomes an ever more aggressive player
in regional and global diplomacy.
• For many years after its reform and opening in 1978,
• China maintained an attitude of false modesty about its ambitions.
• That role, reports Howard French, has been set aside.
• China has asserted its place among the global heavyweights,
• revealing its plans for pan-Asian dominance
• by building its navy, increasing territorial claims to areas like the South China Sea,
• and diplomatically bullying smaller players.
• Underlying this attitude is a strain of thinking that casts China's present-day actions in decidedly historical terms, as
the path to restoring the dynastic glory of the past.
• If we understand how that historical identity relates to current actions, in ways ideological, philosophical, and even
legal,
• we can learn to forecast just what kind of global power China stands to become--and to interact wisely with a future
peer.
Steeped in deeply researched history as well as on-the-ground reporting, this is French at his revelatory best.

The South China Sea Dispute: Navigating Diplomatic and Strategic Tensions (Lectures, Workshops
and Proceedings of International Conferences) by Ian Storey (Author), Lin Cheng-yi
• Increasing tensions in the South China Sea have propelled the dispute to the top of the Asia-
Pacific's security agenda.
• Fuelled by rising nationalism over ownership of
• disputed atolls,
• growing competition over natural resources,
• strident assertions of their maritime rights
• by China and the Southeast Asian claimants,
• the rapid modernization of regional armed forces and
• worsening geopolitical rivalries among the Great Powers,

The South China Sea Dispute: Navigating Diplomatic and Strategic Tensions (Lectures, Workshops
and Proceedings of International Conferences) by Ian Storey (Author), Lin Cheng-yi
• the South China Sea will remain an area of diplomatic wrangling and
• potential conflict for the foreseeable future.
• Featuring some of the world's leading experts on Asian security,
• this volume explores the central drivers of the dispute and
• examines the positions and policies of the main actors including
• China
• Taiwan
• the Southeast Asian claimants
• America and
• Japan.
• The South China Sea Dispute:
• Navigating Diplomatic and Strategic Tensions
• provides readers with the key to understanding
• how this most complex and contentious dispute is shaping the regional security environment.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Chinese Energy Security: The Myth of the PLAN's Frontline Status - Chinese Navy, Maritime
Security, Spratly Islands, Sino-Japanese Tension, Senkaku Islands, East China Sea, Naval
Blockade
Feb 25, 2014
by U.S. Government and Strategic Studies Institute (SSI)
China's Maritime Ambitions and the PLA Navy
Sep 28, 2017
by Sandeep Dewan
China's Naval Expansion and Asia's Response
Mar 3, 2016
by Khutheibam Farook Ali
China's Rising Sea Power: The PLA Navy's Submarine Challenge (Asian Security Studies)
Apr 18, 2006
by Peter Howarth
China Policies and Controversies: U.S. Military Papers - PLA, Deception, Maritime Quest, Navy,
Taiwan Arms Sales, Turkey and China, plus 2014 U.S. Intelligence Threat Assessment
Feb 24, 2014
by U.S. Government

BIBLIOGRAPHY
China's Rising Sea Power: The PLA Navy's Submarine Challenge (Asian Security Studies)
Apr 18, 2006
by Peter Howarth
by Yukon Huang
Eighteen Studies: Chinese Maritime Military And Trade Strategy And The PLA Navy - The China Sea And Beyond
Sep 7, 2015
by U.S. Department Of Defense
Gunboat Diplomacy in the South China Sea
Dec 9, 2013
by Matthew Costlow and PageKicker Robot Jellicoe
Learning By Doing: The PLA Trains at Home and Abroad - People's Liberation Army, Chinese Military, China's
Navy, Armed Police Force, Defending Borders, Exercises and Training, Logistics Lessons
by U.S. Government
Strategic Posture Review: China (World Politics Review Strategic Posture Reviews)
Jan 19, 2010
by World Politics Review and Richard Weitz

BIBLIOGRAPHY
The Dragon's Teeth: The Chinese People’s Liberation Army—Its History, Traditions, and Air Sea and Land
Capability in the 21st Century Jul 24, 2017
by Benjamin Lai
The Lessons of History: The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) at 75 - Tiananmen Square, Cultural
Revolution, Air Force, Navy, Lessons from Korean War, Vietnam Campaign
Mar 12, 2014
by U.S. Government
The PLA Navy (Series of Chinese Army)(Russian Edition)
Sep 1, 2013
by Xiaoxing Gao and Saifei Weng
The PLA Navy (Series of Chinese Army)(English Edition)
Oct 1, 2012
by Xiaoxing Gao and Dehua Zhou
The PLA Navy (Series of Chinese Army)(Chinese Edition)
Sep 1, 2012

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Learning By Doing: The PLA Trains at Home and Abroad - People's Liberation Army, Chinese Military, China's
Navy, Armed Police Force, Defending Borders, Exercises and Training, Logistics Lessons
by U.S. Government
Strategic Posture Review: China (World Politics Review Strategic Posture Reviews)
Jan 19, 2010
by World Politics Review and Richard Weitz
The Dragon's Teeth: The Chinese People’s Liberation Army—Its History, Traditions, and Air Sea and Land
Capability in the 21st Century Jul 24, 2017
by Benjamin Lai
The Lessons of History: The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) at 75 - Tiananmen Square, Cultural
Revolution, Air Force, Navy, Lessons from Korean War, Vietnam Campaign
Mar 12, 2014
by U.S. Government
The PLA Navy (Series of Chinese Army)(Russian Edition)
Sep 1, 2013

BIBLIOGRAPHY
The PLA Navy (Series of Chinese Army)(English Edition)
Oct 1, 2012
by Xiaoxing Gao and Dehua Zhou
The PLA Navy (Series of Chinese Army)(Chinese Edition)
Sep 1, 2012
The PLA Navy (Series of Chinese Army)(Spanish Edition)
Sep 1, 2013

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