GEM risk global datasets and OpenQuake risk modeling

1. GEM risk global datasets and
OpenQuake risk modeling
the GEM Risk team, the GEM IT Team and the
community of scientists and engineers..

2. An international scientific community is developing risk
datasets and tools:
USGS
Stanford
Uni. ImageCat
ERN‐AL
CIESIN
BGS
BCIT
Kyoto Uni.
Geoscience Australia
GNS
UN‐HABITAT
UCL
NTUA
KOERI
GFZ
SPA Risk
PUC
WAPMERR
JRC
Uni. Pavia
CREDUni. Cambridge
CAR
Uni.
Colorado
EERI/WHE
Uni. Nottingham

3. Buildings vary around
the world, but they
have a common set of
characteristics:
taxonomy

4. TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva

5. TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva

6. TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva

7. TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva

8. TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva

9. TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva

10. TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva

11. TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva

12. TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva

13. TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva

14. TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva

15. TaxT v3.1, by Vitor Silva

16. A comprehensive online glossary helps users understand the
meaning of each building taxonomy term

17. GEM Building Taxonomy Reports

18. 217 reports from 49 countries..
Building taxonomy reports received through World Housing
Encyclopedia / EERI outreach effort

19. GEM building taxonomy used to develop exposure
models through paper forms and mobile/desktop “apps”

20. Android tool
Map
interface

21. Android tool
Use integrated camera to take a
picture of the building

22. Android tool
Building
photograph

23. Android tool
Data
collection
form

24. Android tool
Standardised
GEM data
model
format

25. Windows tool

26. Windows tool

27. Working with satellite data – footprint extraction tools

28. Thailand (Com/Ind)
Thailand (Res) Pakistan (Mixed)
Chile (Mixed)

29. Remote
Sensing
Tools
Sampling
& Field
Tools
Global Exposure
Database
Building‐by‐Building
(Level 3)
Putting it all together to develop exposure data and models

30. Mapping
Schemes
Tool
Remote
Sensing
Tools
Sampling
& Field
Tools
Putting it all together to develop exposure data and models
Global Exposure
Database
City/Region Models
(Level 2)

31. A Global Exposure Database with varying levels of
resolution, from country‐based to individual buildings..

32. Level 0 and 1 are country and sub‐country and use
population as proxy for building density and spatial
distribution
Population Density for the year 2000
(GRUMP)

33. Dwelling fractions (percentage of population in different
building typologies) are produced at level 0 (country)
and level 1 (sub‐country) level
Rural Non‐residential
Urban Non‐residential
Rural Residential
Urban Residential

34. Level 0 dwelling fractions –100% global coverage
(source: PAGER, some countries have updated fractions
based on UN‐HABITAT wall/roof census data)

35. Level 1 dwelling fractions – 35% global coverage

36. Level 1 dwelling fractions – 35% global coverage

37. Average number of people
per dwelling
Average floor area per dwelling:
Average floor area per capita
Study Region facts (almost 100% coverage at Level 0)
Floor area (m2)

38. Global layer of number of buildings, area of buildings,
replacement cost of buildings, and fractions to
distribute these parameters between different building
typologies
Global coverage of Level 0 by end of 2013, Level 1
expected to grow with time..

39. How should we estimate the physical vulnerability of
structures around the world?

40. Use the database of existing empirical, analytical and
expert opinion fragility and vulnerability functions that
is being developed

41. Use the guidelines for developing new fragility and
vulnerability functions
Empirical methods
Analytical methodsEmpirical‐national methods
Expert elicitation methods

42. Empirical guidelines offer approaches for combining
observed damage and loss data with observed ground
motions..
Fraction of buildings > Damage State 3
Macroseismic Intensity (MMI)

43. Two expert elicitation workshops

44. Japan
Iran
India
Italy
California
Greece
Light shaking Severe shaking
FatalityRate
Empirical‐national guidelines use regression analysis to
relate observed macroseismic intensity with fatality and
economic loss data from past events ..

45. Analytical guidelines offer different approaches to
modelling structures..

46. and different approaches to analytically estimating
response and damage..

47. A full spectrum of earthquake consequences from past
earthquakes is being collected ‐ for deriving and/or
validating vulnerability functions

48. 64 events from 1970‐2011, plus 1923 Japan and 1967 Caracas

49. 64 events from 1970‐2011, plus 1923 Japan and 1967 Caracas

50. 64 events from 1970‐2011, plus 1923 Japan and 1967 Caracas

52. ShakeMap Atlas 2.0

53. Critical Buildings and Infrastructure

54. Critical Buildings and Infrastructure

55. Exposure Vulnerability Consequences
taxonomy taxonomy
A wide range of use cases

56. Exposure Consequences
1. Use tools to collect data in the field, develop
models and contribute to databases

57. Vulnerability
guidelines
2. Use guidelines to develop new vulnerability functions,
and contribute these to the vulnerability database

58. Vulnerability Consequences
taxonomy
guidelines
3. Use data from the
consequences database to
develop new vulnerability
functions…

59. Vulnerability Consequences
taxonomy
4. Compare vulnerability functions with data
from the consequences database

60. Exposure Vulnerability
taxonomy
OpenQuake Engine
5. Download exposure models and
vulnerability models to run risk calculations
with the OpenQuake Engine

61. OpenQuake Engine v1.0
Scenario risk calculator, featuring ground motion residual
and vulnerability uncertainty correlation

62. D5
D3
D1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
RCLRPC
RCMRPC RCHRPC RCLRC
RCMRC
RCHRC
OpenQuake Engine v1.0
Scenario damage calculator, featuring the use of fragility
functions to derive damage distributions

63. Calculations for Tunis city by an OpenQuake engine user
Low
probability of
collapse
High
probability of
collapse
Calculations by Ahmed Ksentini, Tunisia

64. 0.01
0.1
1
0.00E+00 4.00E+09 8.00E+09 1.20E+10
Probabilityofexceedancein50years
Aggregated Economic Losses (EUR)
Type B
Type C
Type D
No correlation Correlation in the ground
motion and vulnerability
Only correlation of the
ground motion residuals
OpenQuake Engine v1.0
Probabilistic event‐based risk calculator for portfolio loss
exceedance probability calculations, featuring ground
motion residual and vulnerability uncertainty correlation

65. OpenQuake Engine v1.0
PSHA‐based risk calculator, for rapid asset‐specific loss
exceedance probability calculations
Loss map for a 10% probability of
exceedance in 50 years.
Loss map for a 1% probability of
exceedance in 50 years.

66. OpenQuake Engine v1.0
Retrofitting benefit‐cost calculator, to guide decisions on
where and when retrofitting makes sense
BenefitNo
Benefit
Benefit‐Cost Ratio

67. We plan to use the global uniform hazard map, global
exposure database (level 0) and a set of global
vulnerability functions to develop a global risk map
low medium high