Future enterprise towards 2030 internet business innovation_20-21march2014,athens_iii.1 koussouris, viscusi

Brainstorming on 2030 Net Business
Innovation
Dr. Sotiris Koussouris
National Technical University of Athens (NTUA)
Decision Support Systems Laboratory (DSSLab)
Athens,March20th-21st,2014
BrainstormingWorkshop“Towards
2030InterNetBusinessInnovation”
1
Dr. Gianluigi Viscusi
EPFL-CDM-CSI

PurposeofToday’sRoadmapBrainstormingExercise
• To generate reflections on the Enterprises of the Future
• Talk on the trends and megatrends that change the landscape
and the future of enterprises and entrepreneurship
• Build visionary scenarios towards new forms of enterprises that
allow stakeholders to fully develop their business vision and
produce significant shared value in the Digital Economy
• In a probable future
• In a desirable future
• Brainstorm on the role, nature, etc. of “new forms of enterprises”
in these scenarios
2

“New Forms of Enterprises"
Definition
Enterprises of the Future, driven by constant
business model transformation and innovation,
acting as multi-sided platforms built on -as well as
emerging from- digital innovations at the global,
as well as local level, to produce shared value
including that beyond monetisation.
3

Addressing Entrepreneurs, SMEs and
Large Enterprises
4Time
Size
Entrepreneurs
SMEs
Large
Enterprises
From Entrepreneurs to Large Enterprises
• They all belong on the same “line” of the enterprise life, having different sizes
• They are just different “snapshots” of the same story

Predictionshasbeenalwayssoughtfor
preparation….
5

6
FromTrendstoScenarios–FutureEnterprise
RoadmapProcess
Identify Basic Trends
Extract Key
Uncertainties
Define Scenarios Framework
With 5 Key Uncertainties
Map
Visionary
Scenarios
Elaborate on
Storyboards
Analyze
Opportunities &
Risks
Athens Workshop
Identify the role of New Forms of
Enterrises
and
FutureEnterprise Research Directions
Bring forward the Future
Enterprise Characteristics
Merge to MegaTrends
and
Draw Hypothesis

Is such a scenario pretty
probable in a couple
years from now??

What about this
one? Skynet and
Terminator future

Whydoroadmapsusuallyfail?
• Reducing possible Key Uncertainties take
certain things for granted and make very
strong (and in most cases doubtful)
assumptions
• Most roadmaps are based on 2D or 3D
spaces and investigate all extreme points
• The possibility to arrive to an extreme
future is quite unlikely
• + A small consortium does not posses all
the wisdom the crowd does and sees things
from a project specific viewpoint
9

The future is unpredictable. But
with your help, we can anticipate
its most important aspects.

11
KeyUncertaintiesIdentified

Wewanttoknowhowwillthefuturelooklikefor….?
SMEs Entrepreneurs
Large Enterprises/Industry What else could be out there?
12

EMERGINGTRENDSASDRIVERSOFTHE
ACCELERATIONOFNEWFORMSOFENTERPRISES
Gianluigi Viscusi
EPFL-CDM-CSI - Odyssea - Station 5, CH-1015 Lausanne,
Switzerland
13

Sources
• Emergent perspectives from state of the art
• Visions proposed by experts
• Advices from crowdsourcing exercise
14

Trendsconsidered
• Political trends
• Economic trends
• Societal trends
• Business trends
• Entrepreneurship trends
• Innovation trends
• Technology trends
15

16
Trends(1/3)
• Labour market regulation
• Migration rules
• Administrative burden reduction for entry as well as for growth
• Taxes (income, business, and capital taxes)
• Bankruptcy regulations
• Change in EU roaming policies
• Patent systems
• Governance gap
• Talent competition
• Innovation clusters
• Deflation diffusion
• Shift in global economic
power
• Climate change
• Ageing and Demographic shifts
• Potential for Increased Conflict
• Diversity and tolerance Concerns
• Open Data
• Anywhere-anytime consumers
• Privacy and Identity Management Concerns
Political Trends
Economic Trends
Socieltal Trends

17
Trends(1/3)
• Labour market regulation
• Migration rules
• Administrative burden reduction for entry as well as for growth
• Taxes (income, business, and capital taxes)
• Bankruptcy regulations
• Change in EU roaming policies
• Patent systems
• Governance gap
• Talent competition
• Innovation clusters
• Deflation diffusion
• Shift in global economic
power
• Climate change
• Ageing and Demographic shifts
• Potential for Increased Conflict
• Diversity and tolerance Concerns
• Open Data
• Anywhere-anytime consumers
• Privacy and Identity Management Concerns
Political Trends
Economic Trends
Socieltal Trends

• Political
• Change in Labour Market and
Migration rules
• Public value
• Smart regulatory policy and
governance
• Economic
• Innovation competition
• Shift in Economic power and
Resource scarcity
• Societal
• Global Warming & Climate
Change awareness
• Identity and citizenship
emergence
• Millennials rise
• Business
• Social Business Ecosystems
• Entrepreneurship
• Digital Entrepreneurship
• Diversity in entrepreneurship
• Entrepreneuralism
• Innovation
• Innovation Flows
• Information growth
MegaTrends
• Technology
• Personalised Prosumption
• Intelligent Machine
Collaboration
• Supercomputing as a service
• Data from Everywhere
• Human Augmentation
18

19
Trends(2/3)
• Shared value
• Responsible Enterprise
• Strategic Disclosure
• Social Commerce
• Evolving global value chains
• Gamification in Enterprises
• Digital Startups rise
• Multi-sided platforms
• External Information Exposure
• Digital Business oriented Venture
Capitals
• Diversity in self-employment
• Migrant Entrepreneurship
• Positive attitudes toward business
failures
• Entrepreneurialism in the
education curriculum
• Self employment
• Research Mobility & Knowledge
Networks (Braindrain)
• Intellectual Property (IP) Flows
• Innovation hubs
• Technology Transfer and Market
Validation = Technology
Commercialization
• Openness in science and innovation
• Scale paradox
Business Trends
Entrepreneurship Trends
Innovation Trends

20
Trends(2/3)
• Shared value
• Responsible Enterprise
• Strategic Disclosure
• Social Commerce
• Evolving global value chains
• Gamification in Enterprises
• Digital Startups rise
• Multi-sided platforms
• External Information Exposure
• Digital Business oriented Venture
Capitals
• Diversity in self-employment
• Migrant Entrepreneurship
• Positive attitudes toward business
failures
• Entrepreneurialism in the
education curriculum
• Self employment
• Research Mobility & Knowledge
Networks (Braindrain)
• Intellectual Property (IP) Flows
• Innovation hubs
• Technology Transfer and Market
Validation = Technology
Commercialization
• Openness in science and innovation
• Scale paradox
Business Trends
Entrepreneurship Trends
Innovation Trends

• Political
Migration rules
• Public value
governance
• Economic
Resource scarcity
• Societal
Change awareness
emergence
• Business
• Innovation
MegaTrends
• Technology
Collaboration
21

• Big Data/Extreme Data
• Smart Dust
• Mesh Networks
• Prescriptive Analytics
• Wearable/ultra-portable
computing
• Natural Language Search/
Natural-Language Question
Answering
• Responsive and adaptive web
design
• Bioacoustic Sensing/Skinput
• Quantified Self
• Brain-Computer interface
• Volumetric & Holographic 3D
Displays
• Electrovibration
• Smart Machines/Ubiquitous
computing
• Mobile money
• APIs/ Web of Things
• Autonomous Vehicles
• Virtual Currency
• Enterprise 3D Printing
• Gamification
• Crowdsourcing
• Contextual Computing
• Hybrid/Federated/Mobile
Cloud
• LTE (Long Term Evolution 4G)
• Quantum Computing 5G
Trends(3/3)
Technological Trends
22

• Big Data/Extreme Data
• Smart Dust
• Mesh Networks
• Prescriptive Analytics
• Wearable/ultra-portable
computing
• Natural Language Search/
Natural-Language Question
Answering
• Responsive and adaptive web
design
• Bioacoustic Sensing/Skinput
• Quantified Self
• Brain-Computer interface
• Volumetric & Holographic 3D
Displays
• Electrovibration
• Smart Machines/Ubiquitous
computing
• Mobile money
• APIs/ Web of Things
• Autonomous Vehicles
• Virtual Currency
• Enterprise 3D Printing
• Gamification
• Crowdsourcing
• Contextual Computing
• Hybrid/Federated/Mobile
Cloud
• LTE (Long Term Evolution 4G)
• Quantum Computing 5G
Trends(3/3)
Technological Trends
23

• Political
Migration rules
• Public value
governance
• Economic
Resource scarcity
• Societal
Change awareness
emergence
• Business
• Innovation
MegaTrends
• Technology
Collaboration
24

Political
MegaTrends
Societal
MegaTrends
Economic
Mega Trends Business
Mega Trends
Innovation
Mega Trends
Technological
MegaTrends
Entrepreneurship
MegaTrends
Mega Trends Relationship
25

VISIONARYSCENARIOSTOWARDSNEW
FORMSOF ENTERPRISES
Dr. Sotiris Koussouris
National Technical University of Athens (NTUA)
Decision Support Systems Laboratory (DSSLab)
26

ProbableFutureResults
10.8%
45.9%
43.2%
13.5%
70.3%
16.2%
12.2%
50.0%
37.8%
27.0%
66.2%
6.8%
37.8%
59.5%
2.7%
Prosperity
Stability
Scarcity
Global Legislation
Fragmented Legislation
Self-regulation
CSR
Shared Value
Shareholders' Value
Machine Intelligence
Knowledge Based
Crowd Wisdom
Global
Glocal
Local
Wealth&
Wellbeing
Legal
Framework
Value
Created&
Captured
Operations&
Decision
MakingMarkets
33% 50%
27

ScenariosSelected
Wealth &
Well-Being
Legal
Framework
Value Created
& Captures
Operations &
Decision
Making
Markets
Scenario 1 stability fragmented shared value
Knowledge-
based
global
Scenario 2 scarcity fragmented
shareholders’
value
Knowledge-
based
glocal
Scenario 3 stability fragmented
shareholders’
value
Knowledge-
based
glocal 28
In total, 8 scenarios
Pattern Analysis showed the following 3 which prevail

29
ProbableFuture#1

ProbableFuture#1 -Characteristics
I - Wealth: Economic & Social
• Stability. Economic, socio-political and environmental sustainability, mix of social
classes, average income normally distributed, some epidemics, micro-conflicts.
II - Legal frameworks
• Fragmented Legislation. A few harmonised and proportionate high-level directives
but decentralised implementation, effectively competitive markets, authorities act
to resolve conflicts, moderate and consultative bureaucracy.
III - Value creation and capture
• Corporate Social Responsibility. Focusing on value creation over value capture,
balanced improvements for all stakeholders, extensive unremunerated interventions
‘paid for’ by indirect positive effects for the organization.
• Shared Value. Focusing on increasing value captured by specific stakeholders related
to the organization, in order to further their interests collaboratively (even
collusively) and (as part of this) to increase the long-term value of ownership stakes.
IV - Operations & Decision Making
• Knowledge based. Machine-intensive operational and supporting processes,
controlled and managed by human intelligence.
V - Markets
• Global. Markets are homogenized and highly connected, mass production, products
are easily distributed, organizations compete globally, companies can easily move
their operations..
30

31
ProbableFuture#2

• Scarcity. Shortage of resources, high levels of inequality in income, education
and health, polarised social classes, frequent signs of upheaval (riots, medium
to high-intensity conflicts).
• Fragmented Legislation. A few harmonised and proportionate high-level
directives but decentralised implementation, effectively competitive markets,
authorities act to resolve conflicts, moderate and consultative bureaucracy.
III - Value creation and capture
• Shareholders Value. Focusing only on increasing the value (stock price) of the
shareholders.
IV - Operations & Decision Making
V - Markets
• Glocal. Markets run both locally and globally, markets have a high degree of
homogenization.
2030InterNetBusiness
Innovation”
32

33
ProbableFuture#3

• Stability. Economic, socio-political and environmental sustainability, mix of
social classes, average income normally distributed, some epidemics, micro-
conflicts.
II - Legal frameworks:
• Fragmented Legislation. A few harmonised and proportionate high-level
directives but decentralised implementation, effectively competitive markets,
authorities act to resolve conflicts, moderate and consultative bureaucracy.
III - Value creation and capture:
• Shareholders Value. Focusing only on increasing the value (stock price) of the
shareholders.
IV - Operations & Decision Making:
V - Markets:
• Glocal. Markets run both locally and globally, markets have a high degree of
homogenization.
2030InterNetBusiness
Innovation”
34

DesirableFutureResults
86.3%
12.3%
1.4%
50.7%
32.9%
16.4%
54.8%
39.7%
5.5%
11.0%
78.1%
11.0%
41.1%
54.8%
4.1%
Prosperity
Stability
Scarcity
Global Legislation
Fragmented Legislation
Self-regulation
CSR
Shared Value
Shareholders' Value
Machine Intelligence
Knowledge Based
Crowd Wisdom
Global
Glocal
Local
Wealth
Legal
Framework
Value
Created&
Captured
Operations&
Decision
MakingMarkets
50%
35

36
DesirableFuture#1

DesirableFuture#1-Characteristics
• Prosperity. Fast growth, Natural & human resources in abundance, high average per capita income, fair
distribution of wealth, high life expectancy, highly educated societies, long peace. in income, education
and health, polarised social classes, frequent signs of upheaval (riots, medium to high-intensity
conflicts).
• Global Legislation. International law, strongly defined and state-enforced property & access rights, high
market entry or/and exit barriers, burdensome and extensive bureaucracy.
III - Value creation and capture:
• Corporate Social Responsibility. Focusing on value creation over value capture, balanced
improvements for all stakeholders, extensive unremunerated interventions ‘paid for’ by indirect
positive effects for the organization.
IV - Operations & Decision Making:
• Knowledge based. Machine-intensive operational and supporting processes, controlled and managed
by human intelligence.
V - Markets:
• Glocal. Markets run both locally and globally, markets have a high degree of homogenization.
1. How to go to Prosperity from Stability and Scarcity?
2. How to go to Global Legislation from Fragmented Legislation?
3. How to go to CSR from Share or Shareholder’s value?
37

Ok,nowwesplitup!(1/2)
• 3 Groups
• Discussion Point #1: Group brainstorming for the Probable
Scenario
• Q1.1 Comment on Megatrends and point out which ones may contribute
more towards this scenario - Identify other megatrends which are
probable
• Q1.2. Describe enterprises in such a scenario (role, operation, what type
enterprises exists
• Entrepreneurs
• SMEs
• Large Industries
• Other (new?) types?
38

Ok,nowwesplitup!(2/2)
• 3 Groups
• Discussion Point #2: Group brainstorming for the Desirable
Scenario
• Q2.1 Comment on Megatrends and point out which ones may contribute
more towards this scenario
• Q2.2 Identify gaps that could push the world towards this scenario and
note which strategic decisions and shifts and innovation boosts in
business/technology/society/etc. domains are needed and by whom
• EC
• Policy Makers and Governments
• Enterprise Communities
• Universities/Academia
• ….
39

Thanks for yourattention!
Dr. Sotiris Koussouris (NTUA)
skous
Join Us!
skous@epu.ntua.gr
40
skous
Dr. Gianluigi Viscusi (EFPL)
gianluigi.viscusi@epfl.ch

Future enterprise towards 2030 internet business innovation_20-21march2014,athens_iii.1 koussouris, viscusi

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