1. STILL TOO EARLY FOR OPPOSITION BREAKTHROUGH IN TANZANIA.
Latent and sub-conscious resistance to change remains natural in human
beings, especially if they have taken so long getting used to a system or way
of life. It is the same in politics. When people are used to a system they
develop adjusting mechanisms against its adverse effects and proceed on
with life.
In Tanzania Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, the founding father of the nation,
painstakingly and meticulously built a political and social order that is bound
to outlast several decades after his departure from the scene. As a result,
hope of opposition parties Ukawa and Chadema turning tables on mwalimu’s
handiwork, the CCM, appear rather exaggerated. The most outstanding
opposition party Chadema’s candidate, Mr.Edward Lowassa, is himself a
product of the CCM system. No wonder they are coming up with all sorts of
corruption allegations against him when he was minister and prime minister
of the country.
When a party gets fully established it becomes an institution. But CCM, the
Chama Cha Mapinduzi or Revolutionary Party, is more than an institution in
Tanzania. It is a way of life. Going against it is like going against society,
Tanzania or Nyerere. Therefore no matter how strong the opposition are
perceived to be, including stalwarts like former foreign minister Mr. Frederick
Sumaye and Prof. Ibrahim Lipumba, no matter how credible their arguments
and programmes, it is still premature to assail the CCM.
The CCM establishment, which is another name for national establishment,
led by the outgoing President Jakaya M. Kikwete, and former President
Benjamin Mkapa is behind Dr. John Pombe Magufuli, the CCM flagbearer for
the October 2015 elections. The CCM grassroot establishment in all parts of
the country is in itself a formidable force for any opposition to meaningfully
penetrate. Moreover in far – flung villages and remote areas, people will not
care who is vying but which party is Nyerere’s. The respect, nay reverence
Tanzanians had for Mwalimu Nyerere is incomparable anywhere. So when he

2. decided to retire from politics in 1985, Tanzanians wept in the streets
helplessly. So it is likely Nyerere’s name will be a major factor in giving
Magufuli the presidency, as it was in the case of Kikwete over the
flambouyant, more exposed former foreign minister and AU secretary-
general Salim Ahmed Salim.
It is not only in Tanzania. Established political parties in Africa have gone on
to prove that Africans are naturally reluctant to embrace change. Take for
example ANC, the African National Congress of South Africa. The over
century old political party is even more entrenched than CCM. Unlike the
CCM which is basically political and nationalist, ANC is emotionally attached
to the hearts of South Africans. It liberated them from bondage, where they
were treated like sub humans and subjected to untold suffering. It will even
take longer to neutralize the influence of ANC from the conscience of South
Africans. It is a symbol of nationhood rather than a political party. Even
Mr.Thabo Mbeki, the former President who was removed from its peak
unceremoniously and so could have grounds to beef up opposition, had to
coil his tail and abide by the mother party position, however unpalatable and
challengeable.
Even in Kenya the strength of the mother parties can be felt although the
founding President Jomo Kenyatta did not leave a cult-like following Nyerere
and Nelson Mandela of South Africa bequeathed. In spite of Kenyatta and
ruling party Kanu’s shortcomings, the party had an unusual hold on rural
areas, especially at the coast, north-eastern and Rift Valley. In certain
villages people knew no other parties apart from Kanu, and were not
interested in doing so. This made Kenyatta’s successor Daniel Moi
occasionally brag that Kanu would rule for 100 years. Although that was
easily dismissed as wishful thinking, there could be some elements of truth
in the assertion because Kanu orphans, third President Mwai Kibaki, William
Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta, deputy and president as at now, are what could
be called Kanu Damu or Kanu by blood. They have perpetuated the Kanu
ideology of tribalism, corruption, land grabbing and impunity, all inherited

3. from the first president Jomo Kenyatta, fortified by Moi and perfected by
Uhuruto.
Although devastated at the grassroots and remote areas by opposition
doggedness, Moi’s prophesy of 100 years in power cannot be judged remote
given that only 47 years remain. In Tanzania the entire society subscribes to
Nyerereism which in politics translates to CCM. Moreover Tanzania has the
Swahili language which is the fabric that binds the entire society and nation.
It is the single most important bequest from the notorious German colonial
rule that considered the locals too inferior to be taught the superior German
tongue. It has turned out a blessing in disguise for the locals who have
capitalized on its use to nip in the bud any fledgeling ethnic tendencies.
Together with the selfless and open intensions of the founding father
Nyerere, this has helped in no small measure to cement the nation’s unity,
having most tribes in East Africa notwithstanding.
It is interesting how Tanzania has accommodated the doctrine of opposition
politics. This is so because in certain countries, and even in Kenya one time,
opposition politics meant war. If Tanzania can compare favorably with
certain western countries in terms of democratic stability and tolerance, it is
an advancement they should be very proud of, and guard jealously. Kenya
on the other hand is only slightly ahead of Burundi and Uganda in
democratic practice. It is that pathetic.
Bundled off as a backwater state only under trustee leadership of the UN
through Britain, Tanzania was disadvantaged in many ways as the British
concentrated development in its proper protectorates Kenya and Uganda.
Tanzania became only an afterthought on the minds of the British when it
came to provision of facilities in its colonies. But poor Tanzania later
benefited from the rise of a brilliant, proud, simple, handsome, iconic leader
who gave it not only unity but social dignity and national awareness that
soon proved a challenge to the more endowed, almost spoilt neighbours.

4. That leadership consisted in the person of Dr.Julius Kambarage Nyerere,
who happens to be Tanzania and Tanzania happens to be him.
This year’s Tanzanian election is unique in that to some extent it has been
internationalized. The opposition in Tanzania seems to have affinity with the
Jubilee government in Kenya as even their threats and tendencies seem to
reflect the impunity of those in power in Kenya, even though still so
vulnerable. On the other hand the CCM flagbearer, chemistry Don John
Magufuli, is a close confidante of Kenya’s opposition chief Raila Amolo
Odinga.
Same case applies to Uganda. Their 2016 elections have a similar tone, as a
joint opposition force there has invited Raila to go and help them identify a
flagbearer, reconcile them and assist them in getting international donors.
Raila’s work has been made easier by the wavering of Mr.Amama Mbabazi,
Museveni’s former long-serving prime minister who had joined opposition
ranks after falling out with his old colleague Uganda’s President Yoweri
Museveni.
Surprisingly to everyone, Museveni also, during that time, invited Raila to go
and help him campaign in Uganda. Raila’s campaign prowess is legendary,
but the person who could benefit from it stroutly is Dr. John Magufuli.
Although Tanzanians do not operate along tribal lines, Raila enjoys total
support amongst the more than 3 million Luos resident in Tanzania, partly
due to the activities and influence of the late benga music maestro, Mwalimu
Daniel Owino Misiani, who hailed from the North Mara District of Tanzania.
By:
FREDERICK OWINO OYARO.
E-mail: frederickoyaro@gmail.com