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HOW KENYA CONTRIBUTED TO OPPOSITION FAILURE IN TZ
Tanzanians find it unthinkable, even abnormal, that someone
suspected of committing mass murder should wait to be told to quit
power. They find it unnatural that such a person should contemplate to
seek even the post of being a village elder.
In their campaigns for this year’s presidency in Tanzania, the
opposition made one fundamental mistake citing Kenya as a
beneficiary of change and example of democratic progress. Indeed,
many Kenyans swamped the country as opposition assisting activists,
blogger and resource persons, complete with professional poll
distorters. So the Tanzanian opposition leaders’ warnings to the
government in case of election rigging were stridently Kenyan,
intimidating and militant. A new element of recklessness and threats
to violence seemed to permeat the deliberately quiet and studious
atmosphere that is the Tanzanian political scene. It was made worse
by the suspicion that the government candidate was a crony of
Kenya’s opposition chief Mr. Raila Odinga.
The Kenya agents of change and their acolytes in Tanzania went
overdrive. But the Kenya that was enthusiastically being dangled as an
example of freedom and change simply baffled the Tanzanians with
the kind of news emanating from within its borders, otherwise. When a
country cannot pay its public servants salaries comfortably it is on the
path to a failed state. Where was the relevance if they were to imitate
a country which by all intents and purposes was suspected by the
whole world to be broke? It could not have been a worse time for
comparison with a neighbouring country.
On top of this Tanzanians had been yelled at over the decades by their
founding fater of the nation, J. Nyerere, that Kenya was a “man –eat –
man society.” full of Kupe, “parasites,” Ukoloni mamboleo “neo-
colonialism” and mabepari “exploiters.”
In nearly equal measure, there has been also secret admiration of
Kenya. The skyscrapers of Nairobi and its fast-paced lifestyle, the
naughty and skimpy ladies dressing in Kenya towns, the general lack

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of patience in tackling almost all issues, have left most Tanzanians
rather astonished. To some of them there was something rather bold
and heroic about the Kenyan. Even Mwalimu Nyerere used to say,
“There is no need to go to America or Britain. You just go to Nairobi
and you are already there.” It is therefore no wonder that Tanzanian
opposition and even the government side, consulted Kenyans on a
number of issues.
Indeed, even from the colonial times, Kenya and Nairobi in particular
has been held by Tanzanians to be rather unique and exemplary. It
was really the hallmark of Nyerere’s strength of character and
assiduity that he managed to dissuade Tanzania from hero-
worshipping Kenya. So during this years’ election campaign, the
relevance of Kenya was revisited and it took many observers aback
inside and outside Tanzania. Unfortunately, Kenya was found out to be
sorely wanting, and Nyerere was vindicated. Why, the Kenya being
touted as an example had degenerated almost into a banana state,
where teachers cannot be paid salaries, corruption is rampant and
“truth,” so dear and central in the life of Tanzanians, is easily
dismissed and almost non-existent.
Under these circumstances, there was no way Tanzanians could be
convinced to vote for change, and deal with CCM the way Kenya dealt
with it founding party Kanu. Certainly, in so many ways Tanzanians
showed their desire for genuine change, having largely been
disillusioned by the legendary party CCM. But it is was paradoxical all
through. The opposition or change leader in the campaigns, Mr.
Edward Lowassa, had been compelled to quit being prime minister due
to corruption. Had Mr. Lowassa lived in Kenya, he would have been
promoted instead. So Tanzanians were somehow confused, to find out
that the corruption they vigorously wanted to fight had blighted even
their anti-corruption torch bearer. Something was really not adding up
for them, and the government establishment led by the winner Dr.
John Magufuli repeatedly struck on this note. Because in Kenya such
things do not impede a candidate’s progress, Kenyans scheming for
Lowassa did not consider it a factor. Their optimism was sky high.
Tanzanians are not known for outright theft or mugging. But they can
be smoothly well-heeled in corruption, what they call rushwa. Even the

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larger-than –life Nyerere could not diagnose and cure it. In many
ways, corruption has steeply stunted the growth of Tanzania. In
talking about change they meant quitting corruption. But Kenya at this
point in time is the most corrupt country in Africa.
Mr. Lowassa himself cannot be said to be corrupt to the standards of
Kenyans as it was only one unfortunate incident which tarnished his
name so, and which he has so far tried to explain away with some
success. But when he was declared the presidential candidate for the
united opposition, Prof. Ibrahim Lipumba of the CUF party excused
himself off the opposition alliance citing matters of conscience.
Another headache for the Tanzanian opposition was the credibility of
the government candidate, Dr. John Pombe Magufuli. Though not a
front-runner in the primaries, his character seemed to make way for
him. Like Nyerere he is a teacher. He taught chemistry and maths and
his students, especially in Maths, are said to still wonder what a
performer he was. Even in government, where it is rather difficult to
gauge someone’s performance, Magufuli is said to be famous for hard
work, honesty and delivery of goods. He learnt early that the people
were out for change and equally put himself forward as an agent of
change.
Needless to say, the CCM, Chama Cha Mapinduzi or Revolutionary
Party, is in all corners of Tanzania. In several constituencies, the
party’s candidates sailed through without any contest. Then there were
former presidents, Ali Hassan Mwinyi, Benjamin Mkapa and Jakaya
Kikwete forming a ring behind magufuli with huge political bases of
their own. Then most of the small opposition parties that disagreed
with the coalition UKAWA presenting Lowassa of Chadema, like the
NCCR Mageuzi, sided with Magufuli. Then Lowassa and a host of
opposition leaders, having defected from CCM, only recently. People in
remote areas of the country could hardly remember the names of their
parties, or even associate these leaders with the opposition, Lowassa
having been minister in government until June 2015.
The results would have been quite different if the opposition was
entrenched and professional, led by a dynamic young leader. The
president –elect would not have deprived them of their own fire and

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agenda. Given the age and level of competence of Dr. Magufuli,
Tanzanian opposition seems to have a long way to go, and the fire lit
by the Kenya example might have to die down.
This is a particular attribute to former president Kikwete and past
leaders in general. Four successive great leaders in a row, with those
left out equally good and electable, like Salim Salim, Sumaye,
Lipumba, Wilbroad Slaa and even Lowassa. This is all attributable to
Nyerere’s mentorship and is unheard of in other countries of Africa.
This kind of background provides room for another milestone, an
African political party being in power for 100 years.
By:
FREDERICK OWINO OYARO
Email: frederickoyaro@gmail.com