1. AL-SHABAAB DAYS NUMBERED WITH OIL SLUMP
It beats logic, this al-shabaab issue. They depend on Kenya almost entirely. But
their biggest secret scheme is to see to it that Kenya ruined, completely. They
depend on the west so much so that if remittances from there are cut their
relatives weep they would die of hunger, which is for real as they live in a desert.
Yet the west is their worst enemy for which they live to destroy. In other words,
destroy the west using resources of the west, and on no provocation whatsoever.
They simply bear a grudge.
The case is a bit comical. Your last resort for survival becomes your vilest enemy
for whom you plan meticulously to destroy. Call it justice the al-Shabaab way.
No wonder their country is no more. They have literally torn it to pieces, and out
of existence using their own hands. They want to prove who amongst them is
supreme. What religious or cultural difference do they have there inside
Somalia? Which country in the world is against or even remotely targeting
Islam? Nobody is opposed to their religion or ideologies. So what do they want?
They have lost the plot, surely, and do not know what they are fighting for. If it
is promotion of Islam, the opposite is the result as nobody would willingly join a
religious group specializing in cutting our people’s throats. It does not even
disturb their conscience that their religion is associated with so much pain, blood,
tears and cruelty. To die for it and kill for it is their strategy in spreading the
faith, while we believe that God is a God of mercy especially on the
undiscerning.
Of course historically Islam expanded through merciless crusade attacks and
bloody physical conquests. But that was some 16 centuries back. What has being
wild succeeded to do to Islam of late? What is the impact, faced with rivaling
faiths with subtle means of winning converts? Their methods seem outdated and
preposterous now, unless the muslim scholars and world Jihadists come forward
to explain themselves. They are a voluble lot, and why they tardy in explaining
their cause is a bit mysterious.
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2. Due to the slump in world oil prices and trade, Kenya has become a most crucial
country in the world for a-Shabaab’s survival. Indeed, oil bonanza is one of the
reasons that caused their recalcitrance. People can turn wild when unfettered
freedom replaces bitterness and deprivation. When these people want to make a
point or teach the west a lesson they come to Kenya. Through Kenya they want
to deal the west a blow by destroying their international influence and tourism.
Tourism hurts the west hard through hotel ownership and the airline business.
That the west are found everywhere is not something palatable to them.
It is why the west is not also giving in. The al-Shabaab represent a more
sophisticated, systematic and long-termist opposition to the west than even the
Islamic State. And the west have come to realize it, and seem set to return fire
with fire. The recent action by the Nairobi government to stop all foreign
exchange transactions by groups associated with al-Shabaab in Kenya is a
pointer to the direction and shape of the confrontation ahead. Of course there is a
hue and cry from NGOs and humanists that people on the ground would starve
without these remittances. But the government should not give in to these ploys
as anybody who is clean can always use the conventional channels of money
transfer through the banking system. Non-muslims do so, and so can the
muslims, instead of using their “hawalas” which obviously have issues.
Al-shabaab, like it predecessor al-Qaeda, was formed on the foundation of the oil
wealth. They thought it would last forever. Easy mobilization became realizable
due to ready and plentiful funding. Somalia, a country with no owner, became a
most exquisite site for the new experiment with fundamentalism. Luckily for
them, Kenya was next-door, a rich, stable, western haven and outpost. Easily,
they transferred all their mischief from Afghanistan to Kenya. From Kenya it
was most convenient to strike the enemy at the same time enjoying the benefits
of proximity to a rich neighbour. This way they managed to bring to its knees
tourism and the western luxury resorts in the area.
The Islamists have duely taken advantage of the fact that about one third of the
country is inhabited by native muslims. Their major project has been to
radicalize the Kenyan muslim youths, pretending that Islam is under siege in the
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3. country, youth unemployment and under-development due to geographical
reasons have played into their hands. They have been hit hard by Kenya’s new
administrative concept of Devolution. With the devolved government, every
county is funded almost equally by the government and is expected to take care
of the welfare and future interest of its local people. So the campaign of
discrimination simply rings hollow, as well as their ulterior motive of secession.
If they cannot form a running government in Somalia, how would an
independent government be possible especially minus goodies from the central
government?
It is obvious that with the announcement by Kenya that 86 al-shabaab foreign
exchange outlets are closed, there will be repercussions as they plan to deal
Kenya a stunning punitive blow. But this may be the breaking point so far. With
what has been witnessed at the Garissa University massacre, where 142 students
were slaughtered with 60 others taken hostage, anything on top of it may lead to
end-game outrage. Al-shabaab should realise that apart from the forex outlets,
other things can be done to them. They export 40,000 bags of charcoal daily
through the port of Kismayu. The Kenya navy, in conjunction with others, can
see to it that such activities are put to a stop. The manufactured goods they
smuggle from China, Dubai and the Far East to sell expensively in their Kenya
shops can be affected. The huge buildings they own in Nairobi and Mombasa
which mint them billions in monthly rent, can easily be frozen operationally.
There seems to be a new resolve both in the west and in Kenya and if push
comes to shove, as is most likely given their appetite for revenge, things could be
dire in the not too distant future.
In the past it was easy for them. There was limitless pool of oil funds they could
copiously draw from. But with the world economic outlook so changed,
especially with regard to petroleum, nothing can be easily predicted. Everybody
is now struggling to survive and any country or company trading in oil with al-
Shabaab connections would be easily identified, pursued, isolated and punished.
Nobody would risk that, for a cause as nebulous as that of al-Shabaab, a cause of
pretended anger whose objective seems to see chaos reign in the world. It would
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4. not wash with movers and shakers of the oil industry like Saudi Arabia and the
Gulf States. Al-Shabaab have bitten more than they can chew. The anguish on
the face of Kenyans is unbelievable. Even corruption might not work out this
time round, as the people are charged. Playing games with a fanatic can lead to
the unthinkable, they seem to have realized.
Al-Shabaab should show Kenya a bit of respect, and not think that it is too
corrupt, too divided to prove a point. Kenyans need a break, at least. They have
learnt how sometimes it is really difficult to be a good person.
BY:
FREDERICK OWINO OYARO
Email: frederickoyaro@gmail.com
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