Economic Downturn Magnitude (how deep it will go) and duration (howlong it will last) forecast by Riskope published end of November 2008

1. Economic Downturn
Magnitude and Duration
Quantitative Study, November
2008
Franco & Cesar Oboni
Riskope International
Rational and sustainable risk management
requires quantitative understanding
Riskope International SA ©, 2008-*, www.riskope.com
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2. Crisis Forecast, November 2008
Duration Probabilities :
•30% less than 1.5 years Spring 2010
•80% less than 3 years Fall 2011
•10% longer than 6 years past 2014
Magnitude Probabilities:
•20% present situation will persist
•25% significant worsening
•55% critical evolution of disservice
Riskope International SA ©, 2008-*, www.riskope.com
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3. Crisis' Duration Probabilities
Crisis Forecast,
November 2008
0.5
0.3
0.1 0.1
Crisis' Magnitude Probabilities
Less than 1.5 to 3 yrs 3-6 yrs More than
1.5 yrs 6 yrs
0.2
Persistance of
Present Situation
Significant
Worsening
0.55
Critical Evolution
0.25
of Disservice
Riskope International SA ©, 2008-*, www.riskope.com
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4. Details available upon request via
contact page at
http://www.riskope.com
These results can help building
rational risk management
strategies.
Contact us,
Franco & Cesar Oboni
Riskope International
Riskope International SA ©, 2008-*, www.riskope.com
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