This presentation is about a study of future meat production and consumption patterns, combined into a symbol of both, the burger. This presentation shows the strategy of this foresight exercise especially since the scenario technique is used and finally shows the outcomes of this exercise. For further information you can always contact me!

1. Felix Zappe05.08.2017Kurs: Thema | Fakultät | Institution
Disclaimer The Future of Burgers –
A foresight exercise on meat
production and consumption
patterns
by Katrina Scicluna & Felix Zappe
as held in IOT 5007 –
Foresight Techniques for
Creativity and Innovation
at the Edward de Bono Institute
on 18th May 2017

2. 05.08.2017
IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers
Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta
DisclaimerAgenda
Overview of our foresight approach2
Introduction to the topic and our research interest1
2
Who are the stakeholders involved3
Preliminary results at a glance4
Critical reflection on our approach5
Outcome6

3. 05.08.2017
IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers
Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta
Disclaimer
3
1. Introduction to the topic and our research interest
It’s burgers!
The
Patty
The
Experience
Source: dailymail, 2016; The Guardian, 2015; Texas A&M University, 2017.

4. 05.08.2017
IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers
Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta
Disclaimer
4
1. Introduction to the topic and our research interest
Our foresight exercise in a nutshell
Exploratory, expert and evidence driven, semi-
quantitative approach
10 to 15 years
Globally; advanced R&D-country level
The change of meat production in special regard
on it’s influence on consumption patterns
Feasible within one month
Exploring future meat consumption patterns

5. 05.08.2017
IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers
Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta
Disclaimer
5
2. Overview of our foresight approach
Explorative scenario building approach
Source: Voros, 2003
Environmental scanning
(quantitative & qualitative data)
• Trend identification
• Cross Impact Matrix
• Drivers of Change analysis
via STEEPV
• Scenario building
Breakdown of societal
recommendations

6. 05.08.2017
IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers
Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta
Disclaimer
6
3. Who are the stakeholders involved
Diverse stakeholder environment
Stakeholder
criteria
Stakeholder
area
Exemplary
stakeholders voices
Experience
Causation
Redemption
Problem Fixing
Consumers, SMEs,
supplier, cooperation
Politics, agricultural
cooperations, food
producing cooperations
Farmers, SMEs
NGOs, Think Tanks,
research Institutes,
entrepreneurs
Food blogger; associations;
strategic departments of cooperations
Demographic or agricultural ministries;
communications departments or
lobbies of respective cooperation
Farmer in interviews, blogs,
newspapers or articles; meta-studies
or articles
Publications of TT / RI such as WEF or
IFTF; Articles and interviews of
entrepreneurs

7. 05.08.2017
IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers
Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta
Disclaimer
McDonald’s
USDA
Food and Agriculture
lobbyists
Jerry
Murrel
Burger
conquest
SNSF
NCBI
Europeen
Commision
Food-
studies.
com
7
3. Who are the stakeholders involved
A scan of diverse experts during initial desk research
Capone et. al
WEF
IFTF
IoCE
Two zesty
bananas Eater
WHO
Katrina & Felix

8. 05.08.2017
IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers
Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta
Disclaimer
8
4. Preliminary results at a glance
The data so far has three main clusters: meat production, …
Source: thebreakthrough, 2016; IFTF, 2011; Institute of Customer Experience, 2014.

9. 05.08.2017
IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers
Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta
Disclaimer
9
4. Preliminary results at a glance
… Burger creation and …
Source: twozestybananas, 2017; Eater, 2011; plymouth herald, 2016.

10. 05.08.2017
IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers
Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta
Disclaimer
10
4. Preliminary results at a glance
… Changed consumption patterns
Source: WHO, n.d.; Capone et. al., 2014; World Economic Forum, 2017.

11. 05.08.2017
IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers
Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta
Disclaimer
11
5. Critical reflection on our approach
Possible limitations
Not enough resources (money,
rights, connections etc.) to
gather all the information
required
Not enough time for extensive
research
A high possibility of
subjectivity during each step
of the exercise (especially in
the beginning)
Failure of boiling down outcomes of
actual scenarios into societal and
personal action steps
Loosing direction in complexity of
the topic during research
Flaws in conducting the methods
(e.g. not enough expertise or
flawed starting material)

12. 05.08.2017
IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers
Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta
Disclaimer
12
6. Outcome
STEEPV-Analysis of identified key driver 1
• Local focus
• Growing
inequality
• Artificial
Intelligenc
e in future
tech
• Upcoming
alternative
approaches
• Planetary
pressure
• Not enough
production
capacity
• Pressure
from
population
to meet its
wants and
needs
• Lack of
knowledge
• Corruption
• Eating
healthy
• Slowing
down
• Alternative
approaches
to life
Social Technological Economic Ecologic ValuesPolitical
Key driver 1: Changing Production pattern – Integration of new technology

13. 05.08.2017
IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers
Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta
Disclaimer
13
6. Outcome
STEEPV-Analysis of identified key driver 2
Social Technological Economic Ecologic ValuesPolitical
Key driver 2: Consumption pattern: Convenience and Health
• Slow
changing
habits
• Miss-match
of socioe-
conomical
demands
• Growing
importance
of expe-
riences
• Demand
for
cheaper
and more
elaborated
technic
• Conveni-
ence and
health as
selling
arguments
• Growing
price
acceptance
• Emerging
organic
foods
• High
demand
• Unclear
ecological
definition
• Forging
population
-s slow
changing
habits
• Serving a
variety of
peer
groups
• Main driver
and selling
argument
• Growing
hedonism
• Health
class
system
may evolve

14. 05.08.2017
IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers
Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta
Disclaimer
14
6. Outcome
The derived scenario

15. 05.08.2017
IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers
Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta
Disclaimer
For less closed eyes in
future meat consumption!
Thanks for your attention!
For further results, an
elaboration on the derived
scenarios or discussions about
this study, please contact me

16. 05.08.2017
IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers
Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta
Disclaimer
16
Sources
Tasty!
Pictures
Slide 1
Own picture
Slide 3
• https://sirgo.org/burger-png.html
• https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2015/may
/24/premium-burger-joints-rise-britain-datablog
• http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-
3275913/Lab-grown-burgers-menu-2020-Scientists-set-
company-make-stem-cell-meat-affordable-reality.html
• http://sustainability.tamu.edu/why-4-d.aspx
• Own picture
Slide 14
• http://www.heavenlynnhealthy.com/healthy-eating-
london/
• https://techdigg.com/2017/04/21/this-japanese-smart-
farm-is-getting-even-smarter/
• https://www.dreamstime.com/royalty-free-stock-
photography-money-dinner-image9349227
• https://beancakes.me/2012/10/
Slide 15
http://www.hamburger-me.com/p/biggest-burgers.html
All icons used are taken from noun project under creative
commons licensing
Content
Slide 5
Voros, J., 2003. A generic foresight process framework. Foresight,
vol.5, no.3, pp.10–21.
Slide 8
• https://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/issues/the-future-of-
food/the-future-of-meat
• http://www.iftf.org/uploads/media/IFTF_SR1388_GFOFuturesFood
.pdf
• https://www.slideshare.net/UXTrendspotting/future-of-food-
37191410
Slide 9
• https://www.twozestybananas.com/burger-to-the-future/
• https://www.eater.com/2011/5/6/6682859/the-burger-of-the-
future-as-imagined-by-dave-arnold
• http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/crunchy-mealworm-burgers-
are-the-future-says-cornwall-scientist/story-29808490-
detail/story.html
Slide 10
• http://www.who.int/nutrition/topics/3_foodconsumption/en/inde
x4.html
• http://pubs.sciepub.com/jfs/2/1/2/
• http://www3.weforum.org/docs/IP/2016/NVA/WEF_FSA_FutureofG
lobalFoodSystems.pdf