Political feasibility analysis for a term paper

1. Political Feasibility Analysis:
Climate Agenda Through
Infrastructure Investment and
Jobs Act
By Farish Jazlan
| PPL807 | Fall 2021|

2. Outline
1
THE ISSUE
POLICY MENU
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES
THE PROPOSAL
POLITICAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
1
3
2
4
5
6

3. The Issue
• In 2016, over 200 countries made a consensus to
decarbonize the global economy by 2050.
• Climate change have gained traction beyond scientific
communities and grassroot movements.
• However, rate of climate deterioration surpasses the rate of
collective initiatives being made by global economies.
2

4. The Issue
• Political feasibility analysis around how Paris Agreement can
be upheld by USA in a sustainable manner.
• Given political landscape, imminent national issues,
investment interest.
• What is the strategy to have Joe Biden’s climate agenda
‘set in stones’ and not be overturned by executive orders
of his successors.
• Joe Biden signed an executive order mandating climate
change as top priority across federal agencies- amongst his
first move upon moving into The White House.
3

5. The Proposal
• Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, signed November
2021
• Bi-partisan deal.
• $1.2 Trillion spending authorization.
• Includes American Jobs Plan, a $174bil budget to
boosted electric vehicle (EV) market in USA.
• Spans across wide-ranging sectors, but energy and
transportation are largest beneficiary sectors.
• Framed around job creation and climate change based on
current national mood.
• Dubbed it as the ‘clean energy and green jobs plan’
4

6. Policy Menu
5
Market regulated Limited Regulation
Mix of market and government
provisions
Government
mandated/sponsored
Agenda/Investment
Stakeholder
Sector-need basis. Money goes to
where lobbying power / political
influence demands
Provision for selective sector inclusion
Public-private partnership to a list
sectors that is critical to national
economy
In some way mandated to all sectors as
a broader economic vision shift
Monitoring & Enforcement
Industry-sponsored enforcement /
corporate-lobbying
Independent organizational
enforcement (i.e. NGOs, non-profits)
with support from mandated
government agencies
Sector-targeted enforcement, market
incentives, and penalty on non-
compliants
Nationwide federal enforcment and
compliance mandate
Funding Mechanism Private investments
Budget or spending provision
reallocation (move around money, not
pushing the budget size any larger)
Through asset & project concession
and concessionaire incentives
Provision for full-fledge climate
investment/initiatives in legislative bill
(projects are fully paid by federal
funding)
Environmental Damage Control Let the market run its course as it is
Penalty on failure to reduce emission
production based on set targets, or
incentivise carbon offsetting initiatives
Introduce structural penalty/incentive
reform like Cap and Trade
(towards carbon neutral)
Mandate on aggressive emission cut
with comply or cease-to-exist stigma
(towards carbon negative)
Climate Initiative Sector
Inclusion
Extends to willing participants Extends to high-polluting sectors only
Government sets a national soft-agenda
to invoke cultural demand and supply
shift towards greener alternatives
Spans throughout the nation, across
sectors, agencies, and through a grand
scheme as national agenda
Implementation Speed
Least Ambitious- Progress at market-
demand pace
Phased in Through 2050 as agenda
completion
Phased in through 2030 agenda
completion
Very Ambitious- Move as soon as
possible toward comprehensive system
Green Transportation
Entities independently decide whether
to invest/shift to green transportation
initiatives
Incentives or tax break for entities that
invest/shit to green transportation
Federal grants with stringent
stipulations only given to governments
and firms meeting specific
environmental standards.
Government-mandated investment, and
setting industry operational standards
towards green transportation shift.
Energy Transition
Let market-player dominance set the
course
Incentives on renewable energy
projects (lower financing rate,
subsidies, etc.)
Structural/legislative reform on energy
production standards through EPA and
DoE
Full ban on non-renewable energy
production
Goal-centric
Climate Agenda Through Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
Core Issues -------------------------------------------------------------------- Potential Policy Provisions ----------------------------------------------------------------
Government Role
General
Issues

7. Related Bills
6
CATEGORY BILL # LATEST TITLE
TRANS H.R.463 Transportation Alternatives Enhancements Act
TRANS H.R.2204 Transportation Megaprojects Accountability and Oversight Act of 2021
TRANS H.R.2595 ROUTES Act
TRANS H.R.2697 21st Century Transportation Workforce Development Act
TRANS H.R.3097 Green Transportation Act
TRANS H.R.3310 Promoting Service in Transportation Act
TRANS H.R.3594 Surface Transportation Research and Development Act of 2021
TRANS S.1931 Surface Transportation Reauthorization Act of 2021
TRANS S.1953 Surface Transportation Reauthorization Act of 2021
TRANS S.2016 Surface Transportation Investment Act of 2021
TRANS H.R.3347 GREEN Buses Act
TRANS H.R.3516 GREEN Ferries Act
ENERGY H.R.806 Clean Energy and Sustainability Accelerator Act
ENERGY H.R.4909 Clean Hydrogen Energy Act
CLIMATE H.R.1936 Climate Resilient Communities Act
TRANS / INFRA H.R.1879 U.S.A. Electrify Forward Act
TRANS / ELECTRIC H.R.1221 Electric Vehicles for Underserved Communities Act of 2021
TRANS / CLIMATE H.R.740 Climate Resilient Transportation Infrastructure Study Act
ENERGY / INFRA S.2377 Energy Infrastructure Act
Climate/Transportation-Related Bills to
H.R.3684 - Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act

8. Political Analysis
7
Interest Group &
Coalitions
Agenda
Appropriation
Social Construct
Policy Feedback,
Disproportionality
and
Decentralization
Political
Analysis
Perspectives of Analysis:

9. Interest Group
8
Source: opensecrets.org , 2021
Main perspectives: Industry Impact & Financial Influence

10. Interest Groups
9

11. Coalition Calibration
10
COALITION A COALITION B
Shared
Domains
Membership encapsulates wide-
ranging sector
• The broader the membership base,
organization has less tendency to
lean heavily into specific policies
Membership is industry-specific
In favor of market-oriented policies Favors heavy government intervention
• weeds out competition
Against the general agenda as it
harms their business nature
Agenda supports their business nature
directly
Advocates for less government
funding, as government money can
be against the business strategy
Favors more government funding, to incur
business cost savings & profit
maximization

12. Policy Map
11
Market regulated Limited Regulation
Mix of market and government
provisions
Government
mandated/sponsored
Agenda/Investment
Stakeholder
Sector-need basis. Money goes to
where lobbying power / political
influence demands
Provision for selective sector inclusion
Public-private partnership to a list
sectors that is critical to national
economy
In some way mandated to all sectors as
a broader economic vision shift
API, NAM L, BR, CoC EA, EEI, APTA
Monitoring & Enforcement
Industry-sponsored enforcement /
corporate-lobbying
Independent organizational
enforcement (i.e. NGOs, non-profits)
with support from mandated
government agencies
Sector-targeted enforcement, market
incentives, and penalty on non-
compliants
Nationwide federal enforcment and
compliance mandate
API, NAM, BR, CoC L EA, EEI, APTA
Funding Mechanism Private investments
Budget or spending provision
reallocation (move around money, not
pushing the budget size any larger)
Through asset & project concession
and concessionaire incentives
Provision for full-fledge climate
investment/initiatives in legislative bill
(projects are fully paid by federal
funding)
API, NAM, BR L, CoC EA, EEI, APTA
Environmental Damage Control Let the market run its course as it is
Penalty on failure to reduce emission
production based on set targets, or
incentivise carbon offsetting initiatives
Introduce structural penalty/incentive
reform like Cap and Trade
(towards carbon neutral)
Mandate on aggressive emission cut
with comply or cease-to-exist stigma
(towards carbon negative)
API, NAM BR L, CoC EA, EEI, APTA
Climate Initiative Sector
Inclusion
Extends to willing participants Extends to high-polluting sectors only
Government sets a national soft-agenda
to invoke cultural demand and supply
shift towards greener alternatives
Spans throughout the nation, across
sectors, agencies, and through a grand
scheme as national agenda
API, NAM BR CoC EA, EEI, APTA, L
Implementation Speed
Least Ambitious- Progress at market-
demand pace
Phased in Through 2050 as agenda
completion
Phased in through 2030 agenda
completion
Very Ambitious- Move as soon as
possible toward comprehensive system
API BR, NAM CoC EA, EEI, APTA, L
Green Transportation
Entities independently decide whether
to invest/shift to green transportation
initiatives
Incentives or tax break for entities that
invest/shit to green transportation
Federal grants with stringent
stipulations only given to governments
and firms meeting specific
environmental standards.
Government-mandated investment, and
setting industry operational standards
towards green transportation shift.
API, NAM APTA, L, BR CoC EA, EEI
Energy Transition
Let market-player dominance set the
course
Incentives on renewable energy
projects (lower financing rate,
subsidies, etc.)
Structural/legislative reform on energy
production standards through EPA and
DoE
Full ban on non-renewable energy
production
API, BR APTA, NAM, L EEI, CoC EA
Climate Agenda Through Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
Core Issues -------------------------------------------------------------------- Potential Policy Provisions ----------------------------------------------------------------
Government Role
General
Issues
Goal-centric
Coalition that membership encapsulate wide-range of variety of sectors, and in favorof a more
market-oriented operations and least government intervention. Or, are strictly againts the overal
agenda in general as agenda is againts their business nature.
Coalition that benefits directly from the overal agenda, or would favor more government
intervention as it induces cost savings/profit maximizing to the coalition membership base.
A B

13. Political Analysis
Interest Group & Coalitions
• 2 amoeba—like spread of coalition interests can be mapped
on the policy menu
• Since the agenda can be seen as target-centric, benefiting
and hurt industry players forms the 2 coalitions.
12
Market regulated Limited Regulation
Mix of market and government
provisions
Government
mandated/sponsored
Agenda/Investment
Stakeholder
Sector-need basis. Money goes to
where lobbying power / political
influence demands
Provision for selective sector inclusion
Public-private partnership to a list
sectors that is critical to national
economy
In some way mandated to all sectors as
a broader economic vision shift
API, NAM L, BR, CoC EA, EEI, APTA
Monitoring & Enforcement
Industry-sponsored enforcement /
corporate-lobbying
Independent organizational
enforcement (i.e. NGOs, non-profits)
with support from mandated
government agencies
Sector-targeted enforcement, market
incentives, and penalty on non-
compliants
Nationwide federal enforcment and
compliance mandate
API, NAM, BR, CoC L EA, EEI, APTA
Funding Mechanism Private investments
Budget or spending provision
reallocation (move around money, not
pushing the budget size any larger)
Through asset & project concession
and concessionaire incentives
Provision for full-fledge climate
investment/initiatives in legislative bill
(projects are fully paid by federal
funding)
API, NAM, BR L, CoC EA, EEI, APTA
Environmental Damage Control Let the market run its course as it is
Penalty on failure to reduce emission
production based on set targets, or
incentivise carbon offsetting initiatives
Introduce structural penalty/incentive
reform like Cap and Trade
(towards carbon neutral)
Mandate on aggressive emission cut
with comply or cease-to-exist stigma
(towards carbon negative)
API, NAM BR L, CoC EA, EEI, APTA
Climate Initiative Sector
Inclusion
Extends to willing participants Extends to high-polluting sectors only
Government sets a national soft-agenda
to invoke cultural demand and supply
shift towards greener alternatives
Spans throughout the nation, across
sectors, agencies, and through a grand
scheme as national agenda
API, NAM BR CoC EA, EEI, APTA, L
Implementation Speed
Least Ambitious- Progress at market-
demand pace
Phased in Through 2050 as agenda
completion
Phased in through 2030 agenda
completion
Very Ambitious- Move as soon as
possible toward comprehensive system
API BR, NAM CoC EA, EEI, APTA, L
Green Transportation
Entities independently decide whether
to invest/shift to green transportation
initiatives
Incentives or tax break for entities that
invest/shit to green transportation
Federal grants with stringent
stipulations only given to governments
and firms meeting specific
environmental standards.
Government-mandated investment, and
setting industry operational standards
towards green transportation shift.
API, NAM APTA, L, BR CoC EA, EEI
Energy Transition
Let market-player dominance set the
course
Incentives on renewable energy
projects (lower financing rate,
subsidies, etc.)
Structural/legislative reform on energy
production standards through EPA and
DoE
Full ban on non-renewable energy
production
API, BR APTA, NAM, L EEI, CoC EA
Climate Agenda Through Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
Core Issues -------------------------------------------------------------------- Potential Policy Provisions ----------------------------------------------------------------
Government Role
General
Issues
Goal-centric
Coalition that membership encapsulate wide-range of variety of sectors, and in favorof a more
market-oriented operations and least government intervention. Or, are strictly againts the overal
agenda in general as agenda is againts their business nature.
Coalition that benefits directly from the overal agenda, or would favor more government
intervention as it induces cost savings/profit maximizing to the coalition membership base.

14. Political Analysis
Interest Group & Coalitions
• Amongst top lobbying fund comes from organizations
whose members are not industry specific (E.g., labor union).
The more specific the policy is, the less likely it will receive
consensus support.
• Hence the Act was framed as ‘infrastructure’ spending to
extend reach beyond energy and transportation sector.
• The policy proposal evolution have rendered strategies
being used to obtain more support are through:
• Policy design that is less penalizing to polluting sectors, rather
incentivizing the change.
• Longer timeframe for implementation target.
• Inclusion of benefits to compensate the loss from proposed
energy and transportation projects.
13

15. Political Analysis
Agenda Appropriation with Carney’s Framing
• Every administration comes in with a spending bill in mind.
The difference is just how they frame it.
• E.g. Trump era’s spending bills were more for immigration, tax
policies, defense spending, etc.
14
Category Perspectives
National
Mood
Today’s national mood seems to be geared towards climate change
and job creation (post COVID job losses).
Historical
Success
The last three presidents who won the White House advocated for a
‘special’ infrastructure spending in their campaign.
• Individuals are self-profit maximizing. A value proposition that
strikes a chord with most voters’ interest has higher winning odds.

16. Political Analysis
Agenda Appropriation with Carney’s Framing
• Historically, framing as ‘infrastructure’ has been tagged with
high $ value. Infra spending being framed around climate
agenda (leads to job creation) coherent to national mood.
15
Year President Bill Spot Value 2021 Value
1956 President
Eisenhower
National Interstate and
Defense Highways Act
$25 Billion $254 Billion
1998 President Clinton Transportation Bill $217 Billion $368 Billion
2005 President Bush Highway Bill $286 Billion $405 Billion
2009 President Obama American Recover &
Reinvestment Act
$831 Billion $1.1 Trillion

17. Political Analysis
Agenda Appropriation with Carney’s Framing
16
Appropriate
National
Mood
Historically
Successful
Strategies
Well-
Appropriated
Agenda

18. Political Analysis
Agenda Appropriation with Kingdon’s 3 Streams
17
3-Streams Details
Stream of Problems • Climate Concerns
• Geopolitical tensions
• COVID
• Economic resilience
• Supply-chain crunch
• Consumer awareness on sustainability practices
Stream of Policies • Various sustainability practices studies
• Innovative climate-friendly solutions
• Investors’ sentiment on ESG investing
Stream of Politics • Need for spending bill
• Need for USA to lead the agenda

19. Political Analysis
Agenda Appropriation with Kingdon’s 3 Streams
18
Well-Appropriated Agenda
Stream
of
Problems
Stream
of
Politics
Stream
of
Policies
Window of
Opportunity

20. Political Analysis
Social Construct of Target Population (SCTP)
19
Advantaged
Blue-collared workers
Union Workers
ESG Investors
Chip/Semiconductor Makers
Contenders
Coal & Gas Companies
Gas Automakers
Polluting companies
Dependents
Environmental Groups
Public Transport Industry
Deviants
Conspiracy-theorists
Climate Risk Defiants
Weak
Strong
Positive Negative
Construction
(Financial)
Power

21. Political Analysis
Policy Feedback, Disproportionality &
Decentralization With Michener’s Racial Polity.
Analysis from perspective of
• Policy Feedback: Behavioral, Attitudinal, Non-Feedback.
• Primeval soup (Kingdon), of survival of the fittest.
• Disproportionality & Decentralization from perspective of
policy funding and administration.
20

22. Political Analysis
What version would have wings to fly?
1. Optimized between wide inclusion of benefits and targeted
core projects for climate agenda.
2. Combination of policies that conditions the market to
operate sustainably themselves (without government
intervention).
3. Trade-off for implementation timeline urgency with
‘Shovel Worthy’ vs ‘Shovel Ready’ .
• A project my be ready for immediate
mobilization/benefit, but not necessarily impactful for
the long run- and vice versa.
• A project may be impactful to climate change initiative
but takes longer time to mobilize; but climate risk is
time sensitive.
21

23. Conclusion
o Climate agenda can be sustained (and not overturned in next
administration) when agenda is designed such that each
political parties are in net benefit.
o Political risks & consequences
• Each political party will steer towards an outcome where
they have a political card(s) to play in next election
• Equilibrium will have them meet in between, such that
both parties will have some sort of ‘political success’.
o Framing is critical in agenda setting- only sell what buyers are
willing to buy. Agenda appropriation can:
• Increases the likelihood of policy success
• Decrease likelihood of strong objection- there will be
political objections, but the idea is to soften it as much as
possible.
22

24. References
1. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-
releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/
2. https://justfacts.votesmart.org/interest-groups/NA/97
3. https://usapoliticaldatabase.weebly.com/list-of-interest-groups.html
4. https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/07/senate-brings-infrastructure-
deal-lobbying-groups-spend-big/
5. https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/afl-cio/summary?id=d000000088
6. https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/
7. https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-
lobbying/clients/summary?cycle=2021&id=D000031493
8. https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-
lobbying/industries/summary?cycle=2021&id=E08
9. https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-
lobbying/industries/summary?cycle=2021&id=E01
10. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-
releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/
11. https://americansforprosperity.org/infrastructure-spending-history/
12. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/07/elon-musk-speaks-out-against-biden-
social-spending-and-climate-bill.html
23

25. Thank You!
24