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The Life in Kyrgyzstan Study:
Panel Data for Socio-Economic
and Agricultural Development
Prof. Dr. Tilman Brück, IGZ/LSE
brueck@igzev.de
www.lifeinkyrgyzstan.org
Bishkek
12 July 2016
The Case for an Individual Panel
2010 2016
Repeated
Cross-Section
Panel
Tracking the same people enables causal analysis!
?
Data Sources in Kyrgyzstan
multi-topic
surveys
single-topic
surveys
open surveysprivate surveys
LiK Study
Labor Force
Survey
DHS
KIHS
MICS
project surveys
BEEPS
LiK Study reference: Brück, T., D. Esenaliev, A. Kroeger, A.
Kudebayeva, B. Mirkasimov and S. Steiner (2014): “Household
Survey Data for Research on Well-Being and Behavior in Central
Asia”. Journal of Comparative Economics, 42 (3): 819-35.
LiK: A Nation-Wide Panel of Individuals
•  Tracking 8.160 individuals in 3.000 households in 120
communities
•  Yielding over 30 million data points so far
•  Stratified 2-stage random sampling from 2009 census
•  Representative: national, rural/urban, North/South
•  Data collection: around October–December
•  So far, 4 waves from 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013
•  Next wave planned for 2016
•  Data and questionnaires are open access
•  Research-led, open-access, independent study
LiK
Farming and
agricultural
markets Gender and
intra-household
bargaining
Assets,
income,
remittances
and
expenditure
Employment,
entrepreneur-
ship and
migrationDemographics,
education and
child health
Public
service
delivery
Shocks, fears
and security
perceptions
Social capital,
networks and
subjective
well-being
LiK is a Multi-Topic Survey
èHuge benefits
from connecting
these themes!
èSome
topics are
only asked
in some
years
èOption to add
new topics
Individuals
–  subjective well-being
–  education and health
–  labor market
–  movements
–  family and household
–  worries
–  security and violence
–  social life
–  child anthropometrics
Households
–  household composition
–  child education and
health
–  housing and assets
–  agricultural markets
–  consumption and
expenditures
–  income
–  migration
–  shocks
Questionnaires
National Coverage
Unique Features of the LiK Study
1.  True panel study
2.  Independent, research-based survey
3.  Multi-topic survey
4.  Open access public good
5.  Capacity building and learning tool
Plans for Wave 5 in October 2016
•  Repeat individual, household and community
questionnaires
•  Expand the agricultural module
•  Start a pilot of plots for all households
•  Improve child health measurement
•  Main funding from FAO, IFPRI and UCA
Impact of the LiK Study so far
•  >30 institutions worldwide use LiK data for research
•  Research articles
-  eg Journal of Comparative Economics, Economics of Transition
•  4 international conferences in Berlin and Bishkek
•  2 summer schools in Issyk-Kul in 2014 and 2015
•  Policy advice for ministries, donors, NGOs etc.
•  Foundation for additional large research projects
-  on social cohesion and peace-building in Southern Kyrgyzstan
First Annual LiK Conference
Bishkek, 1-2 October 2015
Second Annual LiK Conference
Bishkek, 6-7 October 2015
Some data from the LiK Study
Wide-Spread Land Ownership1	
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Issyk-Kul Jalal-Abad Naryn Batken Osh Talas Chui Bishkek Osh city
Share of HHs that own land, %
Source: LiK 2011
Large Garden Plots in some Areas1	
14
Source: LiK 2011
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
Issyk-Kul Jalal-Abad Naryn Batken Osh Talas Chui Bishkek Osh city
Average size of next-to-house land
(if owning such land), ha
Changes in Child Nutrition over Time
Aladysheva and Brück: work in progress
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2010 2011 2012 2013
Moderately malnourished Severely malnourished
WHO:	Weight-for-height	describes	current	nutri5onal	status.	A	child	who	is	more	than	two	standard	
devia5ons	below	(-2	SD)	the	reference	median	for	weight-for-height	is	considered	too	thin	for	his	or	her	
height,	or	wasted.	As	with	stun5ng,	was5ng	is	considered	severe	if	the	child	is	more	than	three	standard	
devia5ons	below	the	reference	median.	Was5ng	reflects	acute	or	recent	nutri5onal	deficit.	Severe	was5ng	
is	closely	linked	to	mortality	risk.
Conflict-affected Children are too Thin
12.71
22.03
27.12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
%
Wasting per region, age 0-5, boys and girls
Aladysheva and Brück: work in progress
Few Welfare Gains from Smallholder Exports
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	 	 	 	 	 	 		
17
	Soms	per	month	 Total Domestic Export Difference
Agricultural	income 7,055 6,356 8,480 2,124***
Household	income 15,332 15,019 15,969 950
Household	consumption 9,313 9,438 9,059 -378
Asset	index,	mean	is	100 100.0 104.0 91.9 -12.1
The	significant	differences	using	t-tests	are	indicated	by	*	p<0.1,	**	p<0.05,	***	p<0.01.		
Esenaliev and Teichmann: work in progress
Acknowledgements
With thanks to my collaborators:
–  Anastasia Aladysheva
–  Ghassan Baliki
–  Damir Esenaliev
–  Neil Ferguson
–  Roman Mogilevskii
–  Kanat Tilekeyev
And to our donors:
–  Volkswagen Foundation
–  DFID/IZA
–  FAO
–  IFPRI
–  UCA
For further information, please see:
–  www.lifeinkyrgyzstan.org

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The life in the Kyrgyzstan study: panel data for socio-economic and agricultural development

  • 1. The Life in Kyrgyzstan Study: Panel Data for Socio-Economic and Agricultural Development Prof. Dr. Tilman Brück, IGZ/LSE brueck@igzev.de www.lifeinkyrgyzstan.org Bishkek 12 July 2016
  • 2. The Case for an Individual Panel 2010 2016 Repeated Cross-Section Panel Tracking the same people enables causal analysis! ?
  • 3. Data Sources in Kyrgyzstan multi-topic surveys single-topic surveys open surveysprivate surveys LiK Study Labor Force Survey DHS KIHS MICS project surveys BEEPS LiK Study reference: Brück, T., D. Esenaliev, A. Kroeger, A. Kudebayeva, B. Mirkasimov and S. Steiner (2014): “Household Survey Data for Research on Well-Being and Behavior in Central Asia”. Journal of Comparative Economics, 42 (3): 819-35.
  • 4. LiK: A Nation-Wide Panel of Individuals •  Tracking 8.160 individuals in 3.000 households in 120 communities •  Yielding over 30 million data points so far •  Stratified 2-stage random sampling from 2009 census •  Representative: national, rural/urban, North/South •  Data collection: around October–December •  So far, 4 waves from 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 •  Next wave planned for 2016 •  Data and questionnaires are open access •  Research-led, open-access, independent study
  • 5. LiK Farming and agricultural markets Gender and intra-household bargaining Assets, income, remittances and expenditure Employment, entrepreneur- ship and migrationDemographics, education and child health Public service delivery Shocks, fears and security perceptions Social capital, networks and subjective well-being LiK is a Multi-Topic Survey èHuge benefits from connecting these themes! èSome topics are only asked in some years èOption to add new topics
  • 6. Individuals –  subjective well-being –  education and health –  labor market –  movements –  family and household –  worries –  security and violence –  social life –  child anthropometrics Households –  household composition –  child education and health –  housing and assets –  agricultural markets –  consumption and expenditures –  income –  migration –  shocks Questionnaires
  • 8. Unique Features of the LiK Study 1.  True panel study 2.  Independent, research-based survey 3.  Multi-topic survey 4.  Open access public good 5.  Capacity building and learning tool
  • 9. Plans for Wave 5 in October 2016 •  Repeat individual, household and community questionnaires •  Expand the agricultural module •  Start a pilot of plots for all households •  Improve child health measurement •  Main funding from FAO, IFPRI and UCA
  • 10. Impact of the LiK Study so far •  >30 institutions worldwide use LiK data for research •  Research articles -  eg Journal of Comparative Economics, Economics of Transition •  4 international conferences in Berlin and Bishkek •  2 summer schools in Issyk-Kul in 2014 and 2015 •  Policy advice for ministries, donors, NGOs etc. •  Foundation for additional large research projects -  on social cohesion and peace-building in Southern Kyrgyzstan
  • 11. First Annual LiK Conference Bishkek, 1-2 October 2015 Second Annual LiK Conference Bishkek, 6-7 October 2015
  • 12. Some data from the LiK Study
  • 13. Wide-Spread Land Ownership1 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Issyk-Kul Jalal-Abad Naryn Batken Osh Talas Chui Bishkek Osh city Share of HHs that own land, % Source: LiK 2011
  • 14. Large Garden Plots in some Areas1 14 Source: LiK 2011 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 Issyk-Kul Jalal-Abad Naryn Batken Osh Talas Chui Bishkek Osh city Average size of next-to-house land (if owning such land), ha
  • 15. Changes in Child Nutrition over Time Aladysheva and Brück: work in progress 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 2010 2011 2012 2013 Moderately malnourished Severely malnourished WHO: Weight-for-height describes current nutri5onal status. A child who is more than two standard devia5ons below (-2 SD) the reference median for weight-for-height is considered too thin for his or her height, or wasted. As with stun5ng, was5ng is considered severe if the child is more than three standard devia5ons below the reference median. Was5ng reflects acute or recent nutri5onal deficit. Severe was5ng is closely linked to mortality risk.
  • 16. Conflict-affected Children are too Thin 12.71 22.03 27.12 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 % Wasting per region, age 0-5, boys and girls Aladysheva and Brück: work in progress
  • 17. Few Welfare Gains from Smallholder Exports 17 Soms per month Total Domestic Export Difference Agricultural income 7,055 6,356 8,480 2,124*** Household income 15,332 15,019 15,969 950 Household consumption 9,313 9,438 9,059 -378 Asset index, mean is 100 100.0 104.0 91.9 -12.1 The significant differences using t-tests are indicated by * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01. Esenaliev and Teichmann: work in progress
  • 18. Acknowledgements With thanks to my collaborators: –  Anastasia Aladysheva –  Ghassan Baliki –  Damir Esenaliev –  Neil Ferguson –  Roman Mogilevskii –  Kanat Tilekeyev And to our donors: –  Volkswagen Foundation –  DFID/IZA –  FAO –  IFPRI –  UCA For further information, please see: –  www.lifeinkyrgyzstan.org