The talk and bonus material slides from Ethar Alali's Agile Yorkshire talk in September 2015. Covering Business Agility and Lean thinking and why talking about [no]estimates is the wrong question.

1. Business Agility – The
Inconvenient Truths
“What’s Wrong with Estimates?”

2. The Organogram

3. Who is “the Business”?
“Users”
“Customers”
“Product
Owners”
“Project
Managers”
“Marketing”
“Sales”
“Finance”
“Other
Businesses”
“Us”“My boss”
“My boss’
boss”
“Programme
Managers”
“Shareholders”
“Stakeholders”

4. Who is “the Business”?
“Users”
“Customers”
“Product
Owners”
“Project
Managers”
“Marketing”
“Sales”
“Finance”
“Other
Businesses”
“My boss”
“My boss’
boss”
“Programme
Managers”
“Shareholders”
“Stakeholders”
“Us”
“Us”We’re in this together!

5. Game Time: The Name Game
Run 1
1. 5 volunteers
• 3 players, 1 timer, 1 writer
2. Spell one character from
your name
3. Point at next person
4. If no one to your left,
select the start person
5. Finished name = raise hand
6. Goto 2
Run2
1. 5 volunteers
– 3 players, 1 timer, 1 writer
2. Set n=0
3. Spell n-th character from
your name
4. If finished:
• Point at next person
5. Else n++

6. Context Switching
Context switches are usually computationally
intensive, and much of the design of operating
organisational systems is to optimize the use of
context switches. Switching from one task to
another requires a certain amount of time for
doing the administration

7. Value is ALWAYS about flow!

8. Where does the work go?
Customer
Services
Sales Engineering
Health &
Safety
Customer
Services
Engineering Credit Control
Reporting,
Invoicing, PR,
Management…

9. Thousands to Millions of Value Transactions Each Week
ReportingValue1to4TimesperAnnum
Where is Value Flow?

10. Source: Companies House
FTSE 100 Company Late Account Filing
Penalty!?!

11. Thousands to Millions of Value Transactions Each Week
ReportingValue1to4TimesperAnnum
Where is Value Flow?

13. Game Time: Inventory v Throughput
Run 1
• Two Departments
• Department 1
– Build set of Brown Trunks
– Must have large block as root
• Department 2
– Builds Green Body
– Mounts on Trunk
• Communicate Through
Managers
Run 2
• Two Teams
• Team 1
– Build set of Brown Trunks
– Must have large block as root
– ONLY in response to pull (via
container)
– Only ever put 2 trunks in each
container
• Team 2
– Builds Green Body
– Mounts on Trunk
• Communicate direct by
‘container slide’ back

14. Ask Yourself…
• Did The Change Help there?
– If so, how?
– If not, why?
• What was the trade-off?

15. Homework: Try this….
Run 3
• Two Teams
• Both Teams
– Build set of Trunks
– Must have large block as
‘feet’
– ONLY in response to pull (by
customer)
– Builds Green Body
– Mounts on Trunk
Run 4
• One person
– Build set of Brown Trunks
– Must have large base as root
– ONLY in response to pull (by
customer)
– Builds Green Body
– Mounts on Legs

16. Ask Yourself…
• What went well?
• What was the performance like?
• Which model generated the most revenue?
• Which model cost more?
• Which model made the most money?

17. Reasoning & Tackling Complexity
Cynefin
Theory of Constraints
Systems Thinking
Marshall Model
Antimatter Principle
Non-linear Dynamics/Chaos
Enterprise Agile (Agile-EA, SAFe…)
Chaordic Organisation
Lean Startup
Stoos
…

18. Estimates v #NoEstimates
No two ways about it. Estimates are just:
Guesses

19. A Guess in Product Development…
 Time
 Scope
 Cost
 Projections/Forecasts
 Needs/Requirements
 Team productivity(!)
 Value
 …

20. Truth: “Some cost (waste) is
necessary”
Don’t cut or impede the Staff who
deliver value!
Cost of moving tasks between
kanban columns is offset by pipeline’s
benefit
Escalating blockers, costs tasks
blocked anyway*

21. Some principles:
“Any cost MUST have a corresponding Value step to be valuable”
Adding columns that don’t complete a value step, just costs. i.e. waste
“Each value chain step MUST add value else you’re increasing cost for no value”
Adding columns that don’t complete a value step costs. i.e. waste
“Every step must move along the value chain to add value. Every upward step is
waste”
Stopping the ‘machine’ to report its progress or over-plan delays delivery, loses opportunity cost,
increases spend and often risks
“The longer the time between the expenditure and income is risk and requires
bigger safety”
The longer the time between paying bills and getting income means higher need & risk to dip into
savings

22. Most Inconvenient…

23. The Exciting Stuff #NoProjects
“Find an Organisation or Industry where
nothing ever changes!”

24. If change isn’t visible, is it there?
• “If a tree falls in the woods…”
• Clients change
• Marketing works or not
• Staff are employed/fired
• New Regulation/Legislation Actioned
YES!! It’s happening all the time!
(So projects never should have existed the way we know them)

25. Projects: Definition
Prince 2:
“a temporary organization that is created for the
purpose of delivering one or more business
products”

26. Projects v Products
• Products aren’t that temporary
• Projects don’t consider support models much or
monitoring business value at all!
• Projects often cross departments, even in agile :(
– If you’re not closing the loop, you have another
function monitoring your value! If your company isn’t
doing it, it’s the market or competitors! It’s not
internal to the team.
– If you do, then why do you need project management
as a separate function? Make it a role!

27. Bonus: Muda – 7+1 Wastes
• Transportation
• Inventory
• Motion
• Waiting
• Over-processing
• Over-production
• Defects
• Latent Skill*

28. Bonus: Muda – 7+1 Wastes
• Transportation
• Inventory
• Motion
• Waiting
• Over-processing
• Over-production
• Defects
• Latent Skill*

29. “There is Only One!”
COST

30. Q & A

31. Thanks for Viewing
Further Reading
Probability
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/random-variables-
topic/random_variables_prob_dist/v/random-variables (Khan Academy)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_and_dependence
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factor_analysis
#NoProjects/Beyond Projects
http://www.infoq.com/articles/kelly-beyond-projects
Anti-Matter & the Marshall Model
https://flowchainsensei.wordpress.com/
The Goal (Theory of Constraints)
https://www.toc-goldratt.com/en/product/The-Goal-A-Process-of-Ongoing-Improvement
Queuing Theory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queueing_theory
Ethar Alali @EtharUK @Axelisys
CXO & Chief Architect
Polymath-MathMo. Growing up 9 year old programmer. TOGAF 9 Certified, change
agent.
Blog: GoadingtheITGeek.blogspot.co.uk
Specialist ICT Strategists & Advisors for
some of the biggest household and
corporate multi-nationals.
Accredited Growth Voucher Advisors
2014/15 certified to deliver IT & Web
Growth Consultancy as part of the
government’s Growth Voucher Scheme.
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