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1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
07 Apr 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
CORIANDER
APR 8810 9155 8673 9155 +4.00 13720
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
8834
SUPP. 2
8512
PIVOT
8994
Coriander short term
trend is up, further
more upside is expected
in coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
9316
RES. 2
9476
CASTORSEED
APR. 3699 3699 3601 3643 -1.51 30880
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
3596
SUPP. 2
3550
PIVOT
3648
Castorseed short term
trend is up, Prices
expected to go up in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
3694
RES. 2
3746
TURMERIC
APR 7620 7948 7600 7828 +2.27 11580
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
7636
SUPP. 2
7444
PIVOT
7792
Turmeric short term
trend is up and may
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
7984
RES. 2
8140
GUARGUM
APR. 9020 9030 8830 9030 +3.91 4200
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8897
SUPP. 2
8763
PIVOT
8963
Guargum Short term
trend is up, Expecting
price may go up in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
9097
RES. 2
9163
3. Most Active Contract
3
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
CORIANDER 20-04-2015 9155.00 662.00 7.79%
CHANA 20-04-2015 3792.00 185.00 5.13%
JEERA 20-04-2015 15290.00 740.00 5.09%
V 797 KAPAS 30-04-2015 835.50 35.50 4.44%
SOYABEAN 20-04-2015 3575.00 135.00 3.92%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
20-04-2015 3540.00 132.00 3.87%
REFINED SOY OIL 20-04-2015 603.70 21.10 3.62%
TURMERIC 20-04-2015 7828.00 256.00 3.38%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
20-04-2015 1753.00 56.00 3.30%
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
BARLEY 20-04-2015 1090.00 -30.50 -2.72%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-04-2015 3643.00 -41.00 -1.11%
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 3643 3699 -1.51
CHANA 3792 3675 +3.18
CORIANDER 9155 8803 +4.00
GUARGUM 9030 8690 +3.91
JEERA 15290 14705 +3.98
MUSTARD SEED 3540 3454 +2.49
SOYABEAN 3575 3458 +3.38
TURMERIC 7828 7654 +2.27
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
India sugar exports have not picked up even though government
had announced incentives. Despite Government’s assistance of Rs.
4000 per ton on raw sugar exports, due to drop in futures price for
raw sugar in the New York market, which also one of the lowest in
the last 7 years, not much sugar is getting exported, Indian Sugar
Mills Association(ISMA). Cane price arrears across the country have
reached an all time record level of Rs. 17000 crore and with the
depressed ex-mill prices of Rs. 2100 to 2200 per quintal in Western
& Southern States and Rs. 2300 to 2400 per quintal in Northern
States, mills are not able to generate funds to pay even FRP to the
sugarcane farmers. "The Government should come forward with
some strategy to help the ailing sugar industry; otherwise it would
become difficult for the mills to survive, Sugar production in 2014-
15 sugar season till 31st March, 2015 was 247.20 lac tons, up 28.41
lac tons as compared to sugar produced during the corresponding
period in 2013-14 SS, according to ISMA data.As on 31st March,
2015, out of 530 sugar mills which were under operation during
2014-15 SS, 138 sugar mills have shut for the season and 392 are
still working. In 2013-14 SS, 316 sugar mills and in 2012-13 SS
(when total sugar production was 263 lac tons) 231 mills were under
operation on 31st March.Of the 138 closed sugar mills, 41 are in
Uttar Pradesh, 36 are in Maharashtra, 26 in Andhra Pradesh &
Telangana and 10 in Karnataka. Sugar Medium grade prices gained
on bargain buying today after falling heavily over last few days.
Global Raw sugar futures tested their fresh six year low mark and
hurt sentiments around the globe. However, steady bargain buying
emerged in local markets today and spot rates are being quoted at Rs
2640 per quintal in Muzaffar Nagar today, up Rs 20 per quintal on
the day. Global sugar glut is about to continue. Green Pool cut by 2
million (m) tonnes its forecast for the world production deficit next
season, citing sharply improved prospects for Brazilian production,
according to media reports.
NCDEX Jeera futures soared today, hitting their intraday limits of 4% as spot
pricesjumped amid thin arrivals and excellent demand. The benchmark Unjha
mandi continues towitness good demand on the first trading day after the recent
one week break. Spot pricessoared to Rs 15826 per quintal today, up Rs 600
from its previous close. These are thehighest levels for the commodity in nearly
two months. Prices had hit their one year highof Rs 16400 in the middle of
January 2015. NCDEX Futures for April are trading at Rs 14705per quintal, up
Rs 585 per quintal or 3.98% on the day.As per market sources, the daily Jeera
arrivals in the Unjha Madi were the range of25-40 thousand bags in March
month, arrivals are still lower as compared to same periodlast year 40-50
thousand bags last year. The latest updates from the agriculture
ministryreported that 9,000 hectare of Jeera area damaged in Gujarat and 2.41
lakh hectare Jeeraarea damaged in Rajasthan due to untimely rain during Rabi
crop season. As per thetrader's first estimations, current year crop size is
estimated 40 lakh bags, down 40%from last year crop. Lower crop due to crop
damage and area diversification amid exportdemand will support the upside in
long term. Meanwhile, Jeera export demand is holding up well. India exported
128,500 tonnes ofJeera for nine months to December - comfortably overtaking
overtaken the total exportedquantity of jeera in previous fiscal year. The
country had exported 121500 tonnes of Jeerain fiscal year 2013-14. Demand
from China is good and export quotes are lingering at $3.59per kg, up from
2.75 per kg an year ago.
Sharp selling was seen in castor seed futures on the account of strong
production estimates in the current year along with fresh supplies in the major
mandies. The NCDEX futures declined by 1.22 percent today.The market
sources suggested that castor seed production is likely to reach 13-14 lakh
tonnes in the current year on the account of strong production in Gujarat and
Rajasthan. The spot and futures were also pressurized by strong arrivals in local
mandies. Traders stated that total arrivals of around 40-50 lakh bags have been
reported in major mandies of Gujarat and Rajasthan.The NCDEX May futures
declined by 1.27 percent today to close at Rs 3771 per quintal. The NCDEX
futures added 5.03 percent in open interest indicating short position by traders.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch :Sugar
SUGAR PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKETNational Market Update
India imported 31.6 thousand tons of sugar for the week ending 29th Mar, 2015
which was 15.2% lower than the sugar imported the previous week. At the same time,
the sugar exports made by the country rose marginally (2%) from 66.1 thousand tons
to 67.6 thousand tons this week. Owing to a bumper cane production this year and a
continuous depreciating domestic currency, Brazil exported 1.82 MT of raw sugar in
March, 2015 which is 0.68 MT higher than the raw sugar exported last year in March,
2014. In a bid to bridge the gap between production and selling cost of sugar in
Maharashtra, the state govt. is planning to adopt dual price mechanism for purchase of
sugar; wherein the sugar purchased for commercial use will be charged higher
compared to that meant for domestic use. Notably, a major share (75%) of the state’s
total sugar production is used for commercial purpose while a relatively smaller
proportion (25%) is used for household consumption. India sugar exports have not
picked up even though government had announced incentives. Despite Government’s
assistance of Rs. 4000 per ton on raw sugar exports, due to drop in futures price for
raw sugar in the New York market, which also one of the lowest in the last 7 years,
not much sugar is getting exported, Indian Sugar Mills Association(ISMA). Cane
price arrears across the country have reached an all time record level of Rs. 17000
crore and with the depressed ex-mill prices of Rs. 2100 to 2200 per quintal in Western
& Southern States and Rs. 2300 to 2400 per quintal in Northern States, mills are not
able to generate funds to pay even FRP to the sugarcane farmers. "The Government
should come forward with some strategy to help the ailing sugar industry; otherwise it
would become difficult for the mills to survive, Sugar production in 2014-15 sugar
season till 31st March, 2015 was 247.20 lac tons, up 28.41 lac tons as compared to
sugar produced during the corresponding period in 2013-14 SS, As on 31st March,
2015, out of 530 sugar mills which were under operation during 2014-15 SS, 138
sugar mills have shut for the season and 392 are still working.
Brazilian sugar mills had started their cane crushing early this season (1st Apr,
2015- 31st Mar., 2016) and had crushed around 1.24 million tons of cane (thereby
churning 23.2 thousand tons of sugar) by 15th March, 2015. Reportedly, 20 Brazilian
mills had participated in the crushing operation so far.
CENTER 06-Apr-15 04-Apr-15 Change
DELHI 2755 2680 +75
DHAMPUR 2700 NA -
MUMBAI 2766 NA -
KOLHAPUR 2425 2425 UNCH
VIJAYWADA 2960 2960 UNCH
NAGPUR NA NA -
KOLKATA 2810 NA -
6. Technical Outlook
6
BUY CORIANDER APRIL ABOVE 9220 TARGET 9245 9285 SL
BELOW9195
BUY GUARGUM APRIL ABOVE 9130 TARGET 9180 9240 SL
BELOW 9070
BUY TURMERIC APRIL ABOVE 7890 TARGET 7930 7990 SL
BELOW 7830
SELL CASTORSEED APRIL BELOW 3640 TARGET 3615 3585 SL
ABOVE 3665
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