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Ir H Heri Akhmadi's presentation on High Level Seminar Project 2045

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Ir H Heri Akhmadi, the Head of Research and Development Agency of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) delivered his presentation during the High Level Seminar Project 2045: The Path to Peaceful and Prosperous Indonesia and Japan 2045 held in Jakarta on 9 December 2018.

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Ir H Heri Akhmadi's presentation on High Level Seminar Project 2045

  1. 1. Ir H Heri Akhmadi Head of Research and Development Agency of Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) Symposium 1: to uphold democracy and become maritime global powers High Level Seminar Project 2045 ‘The Path to Peaceful and Prosperous Indonesia and Japan 2045’ Sunday, 9 December 2018
  2. 2. Democratic Consolidation & Political Stability Democratic Consolidation : • Electorate Changes & Continuity : party vs figure ; program vs money politics • Trend : Oligarchy, Cartel, Dinasty • Party Consolidation : number of parties vs low party ID; high swing voters /floating mass • Disruption : traditional voters vs (digital) millennial voters ; identity vs ideology Political Stabilty : • Split Goverment : President vs Parliament – etc • Regime Sustainabity Related to long-term policy consistency • Multi-party system with no dominant party : coalition based government • Pragmatic coalition : Figure (image), identity (narration), mobilization (money) vs party (ideology), vision (Program), organization (participation) • The role of independent technocrats in maintaining coherent & consistent policies.
  3. 3. INDONESIA & JAPAN POLITICAL SYSTEM Political System INDONESIA JAPAN State Form Republic Constitutional Monarchy Democratic System Multi-party (quasi) Bicameral Parliament, Presidential System Multi-party Bicameral Parliamentary Representative Head of State & Government President Emperor , Prime Minister Major Political Parties PDIP, Golkar, Gerindra, Demokrat, PKB, PPP, PAN, PKS LDP, DJP, JCP, JIP, NKP Legislative Elections Every 5 years for DPR, DPD, DPRD 4 years for Lower House, 3 years Upper House (divide by two) Executive Elections Every 5 years for President and Governor; Head of District, Mayor (simultaneously) PM elected by Parliament. Every 4 year for Governor & Mayor (not simultaneously).
  4. 4. Electorate : Votes of 1955, 1971, 1992 & 1999 Elections ELECTION 1955 ELECTION 1971 ELECTION 1992 ELECTION 1999 PARTY Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % PNI/PDI/PDI-P 8.434.653 22,3 2 3.793.266 6.93 14.565.556 14,89 35.689.073 33.74 IPKI 541.306 1,43 338.403 0,61 328.654 0,31 Parkindo/PDKB 1.003.326 2,66 733.359 1,34 550.845 0,52 P Katolik 770.740 2,04 603.740 1,10 NU / PPP 6.955.141 18,4 1 10.213.650 18.68 16.624.647 15,96 11.329.905 10,71 PKB 13.336.982 12,61 Masyumi/ PMI / PBB 7.903.886 20,9 2 2.930.746 5.36 2.049.708 1,94 PAN 7.528.956 7,12 PK / PKS 1.436.565 1,36 PSII 1.091.160 2,89 1.208.237 2,89 PERTI 483.014 1,28 381.309 0,69 PSI 753.191 1,99 - - PKI 6.179.914 16,3 6 - -
  5. 5. PARTY 1999 2004 2009 2014 VOTES % VOTES % VOTES % VOTES % PDI-P 35.689.073 33,8% 21.026.629 18,5% 14.600.091 14,0% 23.681.471 18,9% Golkar 23.741.749 22,5% 24.480.757 21,6% 15.037.757 14,4% 18.432.312 14,7% Demokrat 8.455.225 7,5% 21.703.137 20,8% 12.728.913 10,2% GERINDRA 4.646.406 4,5% 14.760.371 11,8% HANURA 3.922.870 3,8% 6.579.498 5,3% NASDEM 8.402.812 6,7% PKB 13.336.982 12,6% 11.989.564 10,6% 5.533.214 5,3% 11.298.957 9,0% PAN 7.528.956 7,1% 7.303.324 6,4% 6.254.580 6,0% 9.481.621 7,6% PKS 1.436.565 1,4% 8.325.020 7,3% 8.206.955 7,9% 8.480.204 6,8% PPP 11.329.905 10,7% 9.248.764 8,2% 5.146.122 4,9% 8.157.488 6,5% Other * 12.667.880 12,0% 22.633.131 19,9% 19.048.653 18,3% 2.968.844 2,4% VALID VOTES 105.731.110 100% 113.462.414 100% 104.099.785 100% 124.972.491 100% Votes of the 1999 to 2014 Elections
  6. 6. Indonesia: the lowest in Asia 77.7 22.3 0 20 40 60 80 100 TIDAK ADA ADA 1.3 1.3 3.0 3.0 3.7 5.6 6.3 6.6 10.0 21.6 37.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 Lainnya Hanura Nasdem PKS PAN PPP PKB Demokrat Gerindra Golkar PDI Perjuangan PARTY ID
  7. 7. 33,8% 50,2% 38,35% Islamic Parties Developmentalist Parties Nationalist Parties 0% - 8% 0% - 12% SUMMARY OF 1999, 2004, 2009 & 2014 ELECTION Maximum votes: Islamic Parties : 38,35% (2004) Nationalist Parties : 33,8% (1999) Developmentalist (Kekaryaan) Parties : 50,2% (2009)
  8. 8. PDI-P 18,95% 1 PARTY 18,95% PDIP PELOPOR PNBKI PPRN PPIB PNIM PDP PPDI PRN PDS PATRIOT PKDI BURUH 2009 ELECTION 14.0% 0.3% 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 13 PARTIES 20,7% PDI FAMILY (Nationalist Parties) ELECTABILITY 2014 ELECTION PDIP PDS PNBK PNIM PELOPOR PPDI PBSD 18,53% 2,13% 1,08% 0,81% 0,77% 0,75% 0,56% 2004 ELECTION 7 PARTIES 24,63% PDI-P 22,9% 1 PARTY 22,9% SEPT 2018 SURVEY
  9. 9. GOLKAR DEMOKRAT GERINDRA HANURA PKPI PSI PKPB PPPI BARNAS KEDAULATAN PPD PPI PKP PDK MERDEKA PIS 2009 ELECTION 14.4% 20.8% 4.5% 3.8% 0.9% 0.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 16 PARTIES 50,2% GOLKAR DEMOKRAT GERINDRA HANURA PKPI NASDEM 6 PARTIES 14,75% 10,19% 11,81% 5,26% 0,91% 6,72% 49,65% 2014 ELECTION GOLKAR FAMILY ( Developmentalist Parties) ELECTABILITY GOLKAR DEMOKRAT PKPB PKPI PPDK Patriot Pancasila Merdeka PSI PPIB PPD 21,58% 7,45% 2,11% 1,26% 1,16% 0,95% 0,74% 0,60% 0,59% 0,58% 2004 ELECTION 11 PARTIES 37,02% GOLKAR GERINDRA DEMOKRAT NASDEM PERINDO HANURA PKPI PSI 8 PARTIES 11,4% 10,7% 6,8% 3,4% 2,5% 0,8 - 0,2% 35,7% SEPT 2018 SURVEY
  10. 10. PKS PAN PPP PKB PBB PMB PBR PKNU PPNUI 2009 ELECTION 7,9% 6,0% 5,3% 4,9% 1,8% 0,4% 1,2% 1,5% 0,1% 9 Parties 29,2% PKB PAN PKS PPP PBB 5 Parties 9,04% 7,59% 6,79% 6,53% 1,46% 31,40% 2014 ELECTION TREND OF “ISLAMIC PARTIES” ELECTABILITY PKB PPP PKS PAN PBB PBR PPNUI 10,57% 8,15% 7,34% 6,44% 2,62% 2,44% 0,79% 2004 ELECTION 7 Parties 38,35% PKB PAN PKS PPP PBB 5 Parties 6,2% 2,0% 4,0% 3,7% 0,2% 16,1% SEPT 2018 SURVEY
  11. 11. Closing Notes : 1. Government formation will heavily depend on pragmatic coalition. 2. Indonesian political lanscape will still be characterized by the existence of oligarchy, cartel & dynastic politics in the next decade. 3. Regime sustainability will depend on the delicated balance of strong & stabil political supports vis a vis smart & sound development policies. 4. Need to nurture strong parties or party coalition 5. Need to formulate ‘sustainable’ democracy for Indonesia, by balancing political & economic democracy Terima Kasih

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