California Geological Survey – “Probabilistic Tsunami Modeling and Public Pol...
Modeling Resilience in GEM
1. Modeling Resilience in GEM
Kate Stillwell, GEM Foundation
acknowledgements to Christopher Burton, GEM Foundation
EERI National Meeting, Seattle
February 2013
3. GEM & OpenQuake: Global, Open Source, Integrated
Hazard + Exposure + Vulnerability + Resilience
Worldwide Coverage to a Common Standard
Publically Available and Open Source
National, Regional, Portfolio, or Single-Site
Computations on a Laptop, Cluster, or Cloud
demo: http://beta.globalquakemodel.org/openquake/about/platform/demo/
4. GEM Results are Useful for Diverse Stakeholders
Regional Losses and Urban Shaking in Hypothetical and Historical Earthquakes
Shaking Losses
ISTANBUL
MARMARA
SEA
Additional Maps:
‣ Damage Distribution
‣ Fatality Distribution
5. Working Together to Assess [Seismic] Risk
Capabilities & Results
Global Components GEM Secretariat PSHA
Loss Exceedence Curves
Event Losses
Collaborating Damage Maps
Scientists Fatality Estimates
Retrofit Cost-Benefit
Historical Catalog OpenQuake Hazard Curves & Spectra
Instrumental Catalog
Fault Database
Strain Rates
Attenuation Relations
Taxonomy
Vulnerability Regional Workshops
Global Exposure
Consequences Database
Inventory Data Capture Tools
Social Vulnerability & Resilience
6. Uses of OpenQuake will Grow over Time
Working Programme /
Typical User User Decisions
OpenQuake Release
Parametric studies
Academic Researcher Sensitivity testing
Standard for comparisons to new research
Uniform risk comparison across regions
Phase I
Results “benchmarking”
(2014) Risk Modelling Analyst
Sensitivity testing
Regulatory support
Site-specific Hazard spectra / Hazard curves
Leading Engineering Firm
Basis for risk assessment studies
same as above, but add… Risk comparison maps
Phase II Disaster Manager Economic and Social indicators
(2019) Urban Planner Mapped Risk portraits
Risk Consultant “Quick” risk assessment reports
7. Now: Adjust Losses by Resilience Factors
Physical Risk
Rp = ∫∫ Haz,Vuln(Exp)
F = Indices of
Social Vulnerability
and Resilience
Total Integrated Risk:
RT= RP (1 + F)
From: Integrated Hazard Assessment Tool (mapra.cas.sc.edu/ihat/index.html)
8. What Goes into the Social Vuln. & Resilience Indices?
‣ Identify social characteristics (“indicators”) that affect risk distribution
‣ Indicator Selection & Development is Based on:
‒ post-disaster field work,
‒ surveys of affected populations
‒ pre-impact studies
‣ Examples:
‒ Special needs populations
‒ Age (elderly and children)
‒ Socioeconomic status (rich; poor)
‒ Race and ethnicity (language / cultural barriers)
‒ Gender
Heinz Center, 2002. Human Links to Coastal Disasters. Washington D.C.:
The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment.
10. Resilience Amplification can Double the Physical Risk
Ranking of earthquake risk
aggravated by social vulnerability
and resilience factors for countries
in Asia Pacific, Daniel et al.( 2010)
11. Future Resilience Modeling: Issues and Considerations
‣ Dynamic modeling? (simulations)
‒ Incorporates consequences of (hypothetical) post-event decisions
‒ Evaluate effectiveness of each decision
‣ Social / Economic “vulnerability” relations?
‒ parameterized by regional characteristics
Speed of Regional Recovery
Cohesion in post-event funding sources –or-
Degree of government centralization
Editor's Notes
Abrief word on process: How does GEM get there? As mentioned in the first slide, GEM’s core elements are is data, software, and community.We start with the global components, which are the datasets and models used as the default science in the GEM model. These are developed through projects conducted by consortia of scientists from leading institutions worldwide, and the deliverables represent scientific consensus. Examples of deliverables from the Global Components will be shown in the next few slides but as an example - one of these projects is a unified and consistent earthquake catalog, and another is a set of vulnerability relations - hundreds, both empirical and analytical, applicable around the world, together detailed standards to construct customized analytical vulnerability relations.The staff at the GEM Secretariat and Model Facility develop the GEM OpenQuake software – the engine, the interface, and the testing that goes along with it. The Model Facility also takes care of the challenge to integrate each dataset with the others and into the OpenQuake platform. And they implement the OpenQuake capabilities we saw in the previous slides – making sure the results that GEM produces are consistent with the needs of users and beneficiaries.Guiding these efforts are the Scientific Board, which provides input and scientific credibility particularly to the Global Components but also to OpenQuake development. The Governing Board provides formal governance of GEM organization and allocation of resources. The people who make GEM a reality day-to-day are Secretary General Rui Pinho and the executive team consisting of Helen Crowley, risk, Marco Pagani, hazard, Paul Henshaw, OpenQuake, and Christopher Burton, social vulnerability, along with Nicole Keller, international relations and communications.GEM is already being disseminated and contributing to scientific capacity-building and technology transfer worldwide, in the context of regional workshops. Groups of scientists convene to learn GEM, adapt it to their region and their level of knowledge, develop hazard or risk maps and metrics, and contribute back their own knowledge and data. Here are photos from a Southeast Asia working group in Sept 2011 and a workshop in Cape Town, South Africa from June 2012.