AI & Cybersecurity Tools are being weaponised by National Governments which is already impacting Export Rules & Regulations. This short article opens up an online discussion of some of these contemporary issues which impact us all!

1. 1 AI & Cybersecurity meets 21stC Geopolitics – Dr David E Probert – VAZA – 21st Feb 2023

2. 2 AI & Cybersecurity meets 21stC Geopolitics – Dr David E Probert – VAZA – 21st Feb 2023
AI & Intelligent Cybersecurity meet 21st
GeoPolitics!
1) Background Brief: In this White Paper we briefly explore the historical development of AI &
Cybersecurity & their impact on national security & international politics. AI was originally conceived
80 years ago way back in 1943 as “Neural Networks” by McCulloch & Pitts, and then further
developed during the 1950s & 60s to become a concrete field of scientific exploration. Cybersecurity
evolved around 40 years during the early 1980s and initially referred to as Information Security
during the early commercial Internet of the 1990s. During these times AI & Cyber research software
was freely available. In comparison, for many years there were strong Export Restrictions on
Computer Hardware graded by the performance parameters such MIPS (Millions of Instructions/Sec).
This included bans on exports of most powerful Western Computers to countries/regions such as
USSR, Libya, Iran & North Vietnam.
2) 21st
C Trends: Whilst the 20th
C was more concerned with Physical Hardware and the colonisation
of “Space”. Now in the 21st
C we are strongly focused on the Virtual or CyberWorld and “Time”.
Events in the Physical Space take place at maximum factors of the “Speed of Sound” – hence our
20th
C obsession with Supersonic Flight & Supersonic Cars! In the 21st
C Events take place along fibre
optics at the “Speed of Light” to provide “Real-Time” Streams, and the evolution of the Metaverse.
So whereas in the 20th
C the key threats were physical nuclear weapons, there is now increasing
concern regarding the weaponisation of Cyber AI for both defensive and offensive missions.
3) Intelligent Convergence: As just mentioned, Cybesecurity and AI have come together
commercially in products such as the DARKTRACE Solution (www.darktrace.com) which pioneered
the application of AI (Recursive Bayesian Estimation – RBE – as well as Deep-Learning Neural Nets) to
Intelligent Cybersecurity around 10 years ago in Cambridge, UK. Since then, most major
Cybersecurity vendors have upgraded their software to provide Intelligent AI-based products which
mitigates against Zero-Day Attack, Custom Malware & Ransomware. Already there are UK
Government Export Controls on Darktrace Products and the US Government also issues regular
updates on new Export Controls on Cybersecurity Software in the: Federal Register :: Information
Security Controls: Cybersecurity Items – May2022 & Sept2022. In the rest of this short white paper
we explore the motivation, risks and future trends of Cyber AI in the context of Geopolitics.
4) Intelligent Integration: We now see the integration & convergence of Physical and Cyber
Solutions within Industrial, Government and National Critical Infrastructure. So whilst in the 20th
C
the major export risks were related to hardware such as computers & jet fighters. Now National
Governments are concerned with the strategic risks of exporting both their CyberAI Software as well
as fully integrated Cyber-Physical Systems which maybe for Healthcare, Smart Cities, Energy
Production, Military Surveillance o r Industrial Process Control. Such Intelligent Integrated systems
now have both commercial and strategic value as National Assets that control and manage their
Critical Infrastructure.
5) National Cyber Assets: Cybersecurity has moved beyond the Phase I physical metaphor based
upon Firewalls & Virus Checks to the Phase 2 Real-Time Virtual Metaphor based upon monitoring &
surveillance of ALL events in the enterprise or government network. In addition, CyberSecurity has
now been developed as a key element of military information warfare and the basis of customised

3. 3 AI & Cybersecurity meets 21stC Geopolitics – Dr David E Probert – VAZA – 21st Feb 2023
cyber weapons that can survey, monitor & infiltrate the critical network assets of unfriendly states.
The US Government started to include Cyber within the original C4ISR DOD Integrated Architectures
of the 1990s. Most Cyber and AI Software can be interpreted as potentially providing “Dual
Civilian/Military” Applications. Hence Nations will increasingly establish Legal Frameworks of Rules
and Regulations to control the Export of CyberAI within known “Friendly Countries/Regions”.
6) National Export Controls: A useful summary of historical Export Controls in Selected Countries
will be found in : Historical Background of Export Control Development in Selected Countries and
Regions (cistec.or.jp) . You will see that controls on hardware go back many decades. However, for
reasons discussed above, we are sure to see strong rules & regulations established for Intelligent
CyberAI Software and integrated Intelligent Cyber-Physical Solutions during the coming 5 to 10 years.
Whilst working for Digital Equipment Corporation in the 1980s/1990s, I regularly undertook Training
on Export Licensing Controls which were most rigorously enforced by both US/UK/EU Governments.
These mainly concerned the export of Computer Hardware, Networking & Database Systems to
“unfriendly countries”. Now we can expect to see similar Rules to be applied with both mainstream
and start-up businesses concerned with Intelligent CyberAI Software, particularly when it may be
implemented with National Critical and Military Cyber Assets & Infrastructure.
7) Critical Cyber Infrastructure: National Governments are now concerned at the risks related to
both criminal & politically motivated attacks on their critical national infrastructure. This may be for
commercial gain through ransomware or for military & political advantage as an element of 21st
C
Cyberwarfare. The UN/ITU has been implementing a programme for almost 15 years to motivate
National Governments to boost the resilience of their cyber infrastructure. You will find the latest
edition of the UN/ITU Cybersecurity Index @ www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Cybersecurity/Pages/global-
cybersecurity-index.aspx . The 1st Edition of the Official UN/TU Cybersecurity Guide @
www.itu.int/ITU-D/cyb/cybersecurity/docs/itu-national-cybersecurity-guide.pdf was based largely
upon a 2009/2010 UN/ITU Mission undertaken by myself and Dr Frederick Wamala. During the last
12 years we have seen significant global interest & investment in Government CyberAI Solutions
focused upon defence of Critical National Enterprise & Military Infrastructure.
8) Vertical Cyber Sectors: Most of our discussion has so far been generic with regard to critical
national assets. However, the marketplace for CyberAI is already differentiating and zooming in on
specific market sectors such as Healthcare, Agriculture, Industrial ICS/SCADA Process Control,
Education, Energy Systems, Transportation, Military/Defence, Smart Cities & ICT/ Mobile/
Telecommunications. In each sectors there are specific risks from the free export of software,
patents & intellectual assets & secrets. A key problem & risk is that the export of Physical Products
such as computers, required some finite time, physical controls & shipment logistics. In addition
criminal sippliers of contraband hardware systems in the 1980s/90s were well known to use
Shipment Diversions to “Friendly” 3rd
Countries to hide the true final destination to an “unfriendly”
state such as Iran, Libya or USSR. However, for illegal Software Exports this is far tougher to monitor
and prevent. 128GBytes of Encrypted Software could be transmitted through a network of High-
Speed Proxy Servers in Multiple Countries within just minutes. So new authentication methods will
be required to secure National Critical CyberAI Software such Encrypted Quantum Computer-based
“Dongles” integrated with GPS satellite tracking devices! There will still be risks that CyberAI
Software may be decrypted & reverse engineered. Indeed, computer specialists in the USSR/Warsaw
Pact Countries were experts with reverse engineering IBM/DEC Hardware Mainframe and Mini-

4. 4 AI & Cybersecurity meets 21stC Geopolitics – Dr David E Probert – VAZA – 21st Feb 2023
Computers throughout the 1970s/1980s! In any case, National Governments will need to give
thought to both Generic CyberAI Export Controls as well as those for each and e very Vertical Cyber
Sector. For example, in Healthcare there is considerable Intellectual Financial Value wraped up in
Genetic Sequencing and Manufacture of mRNA Vaccines such as those for COVID-19. Much of the
R&D effort nowadays is based upon Healthcare Specific CyberAI Software for DNA/RNA Analysis,
Sequencing, Testing and Manufacture. So the mRNA Vaccine Software System will have significant
Commercial Value within the Context of the National Government & State.
9) Investment in 21st
C Cyber AI: In past decades, software developers could be confident that
they could pretty much freely export their products worldwide apart from a few possible exceptions
such as North Korea and Iran. 50 Years ago in Summer 1973 I started work on my Doctorate Degree
on “Self-Organisation & Stochastic Machine Learning – The Evolution of Stochastic Automata” @
Maths Dept, Cambridge University, UK . Download: www.valentina.net/vaza/CyberDocs/Thesis.pdf
Through theoretical research & computer simulations I soon became aware of the eventual
importance and value of AI/ML but during the 1970s – “AI Winter” there was a low level of interest
with all eyes back then on “Optimal Control Systems”! So it is now personally fulfilling to now see the
widespread applications of CyberAI within all spheres of Government and Society. However it is
becoming increasingly clear that groups of “Friendly Countries” such as NATO Members & “The West”
will strongly manage the export of CyberAI Software to the “Unfriendly World” such as BRICS & their
Allies. Conversely countries such as China & Russia who both have strong known CyberAI capabilities
themselves will similarly restrict software & systems exports to the “Western World”. So with
regards to Investment in CyberAI Start-ups & subsequent marketing there needs to be a strategic
framework of countries & vertical sectors as the target market. National Governments in particular
will probably wish some form of exclusive ownership of advanced CyberAI for Cyber Warfare.
10) Summary: Investment on 21st
C CyberAI Start-ups should ideally be targeted & marketed on
specific Verticals or Geographical “Friendly” Regions in contrast to previous decades when
developments were targeted primarily horizontally & globally! Export Controls for all forms of
CyberAI will become “the norm” during the next 5 to 10 years so be prepared! The software business
is likely to become even more customised to specific verticals which will be the location of the bulk
of the “added value”. The generic horizontal CyberAI Platforms will still be generally exportable but
much more “content free” with lower value than previous decades. The next few years to 2030 will
see CyberAI Software Systems mainstream throughout both the “friendly & unfriendly worlds” and
will become key elements within National Critical Assets & Sectors. Protection Mechanisms, Export
Controls & further Rules & Regulations will be implemented and strongly enforced in both East &
West! So whilst Nuclear Weapons were the Military Currency of the 20th
C, so CyberAI will become
the Military Mainstream Currency of the mid to late 21st
C – In addition, the Business Winners of the
mid-21st
C will be those enterprises and industries that fully embrace the benefits and transformation
of Intelligent CyberAI Systems. Every Week we see leading articles and features in practically EVERY
Sector Media Magazine, Newsletter and Social Media Platform on AI Implementations, Smart
ChatBots & CyberSecurity. Such CyberAI Developments will define the Leading GeoPolitical Nations
& Businesses from Start-Ups to Corporations of our coming mid-late 21st
C! Be AI Wise & Be Prepared!
Acknowledgement: Thanks so much to Jake Chasan @ Sapphire Ventures, San Francisco, CA, USA,
for our inspirational online discussion & for originally suggesting research into this compelling topic!