This presentation was prepared for peer review as part of the fulfillment of the World Bank training on Data For Better Lives 2021. The presentation outlined the successes of a pilot program using climate services to manage risk in the agricultural sector. The second portion explored opportunities for establishing an integrated data management system to support climate and disaster risks planning across key socio-economic sectors. I hope there are lessons for all readers to apply similar thought process in your respective countries and where applicable provide feedback to strengthen this proposal. To get the full effects please view in ppt online or the web version. Thank you, Dianne Dormer

1. A REVIEW OF CLIMATE SERVICES FOR
AGRICULTURAL PLANNING IN JAMAICA AND
A PROPOSED WAY FORWARD FOR AN
INTEGRATED NATIONAL CLIMATE DATA
SYSTEM TO SUPPORT KEY DEVELOPMENT
PLANNING
DIANNE DORMER
World Bank Training On Data For Better Lives 2021

2. CLIMATE AND WEATHER
DATA TO MANAGE
ASSOCIATED RISKS
ACROSS THE
AGRICULTURAL
LANDSCAPE

3. THE CLIMATE CONTEXT
CLIMATE TRENDS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE
30 – 50 yrs. of climate data records document a
general warming in the Caribbean with greater
variability in seasonal temperatures.
 More heat stress (crops and livestock)
 Increased pest and disease outbreaks
Precipitation patterns in Jamaica over the past
several decades have shown an overall drying trend
through the summer months, with rainfall
becoming more irregular in its distribution.
 Crop failure because of
 Water shortage
 Flooding
Projected increase in the occurrence of stronger
and more intense tropical cyclones
 Damage to infrastructure
 Disruption of businesses
Sea levels rising but not uniformly across the
Caribbean
 Saline intrusion

4. SUITE OF TOOLS 2013-2018
Pest Forecasting Tool
01
Develop to manage the
Beet Armyworm
Standard Precipitation
Index
02
Develop to manage
drought conditions
Agromet Bulletin
03
An analysis of severe weather
outlook and implications for
the agriculture sector
Community Weather
Outlook
04
Five-day weather
projections at the
community level
Severe Weather Alert
05
SMS delivered by dialing
and emergency three -digit
emergency number

5. PEST FORECASTING TOOL
 2012 outbreak of bet armyworm (spodoptera exigua) on onion (allium cepa), escallion (allium sp.) and other crops resulted in
an estimated $31 million loss or in crop damage.
 The outbreak was attributed to the prolong drought and increase temperatures experienced in the production zones.
 The Meteorological Service of Jamaica (MSJ) partnered with Agiruculture Sector stakeholders to provide relevant climate and
weather data.
 The data included predicting dry spells occurrence, duration, start, and end dates and rainfall data.
 The Research Unit would put the data in forecasting model to identify pest outbreak hotspots.
 This information would then be fed to the Extension Unit, who would use SMS and communication means to send early warning
messages to farmers advising them of actions to take to minimize the occurrence of pest outbreak.
 During the period, the Ministry was able to bring pest infestation down to less than five percent.

6. KEY DECISION SUPPORT | DURING PERIODS OF LOW RAINFALL THE
POPULATION OF THE PEST INCREASES

7. KEY DECISION SUPPORT | THE EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE ON THE DURATION
OF THE PEST LIFE CYCLE
Developmental
Stage
Time Days @ 23.7
0
C Time Days @ 29.6
0
C
Egg
1
st
Instar 7 1
2
nd
Instar 4 4
3
rd
Instar 2 1
4
th
Instar 6 6
5
th
Instar 6 3
25 days from 1
st
instar to
pupation
15 days from 1st instar to
pupation
Pupa

8.  The SPI aided in the forecasting of drought
conditions.
 The worth of this tool was truly tested during the
extended droughts across 2013-2015.
 The SPI was used to provide quarterly and half
yearly drought predictions throughout the period.
 Farmers were able to access this via MSJ website,
severe weather alerts SMS or through the
extension service fully packaged with water
management and agronomic advisories.
STANDARD PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI)
RESEARCH CARRIED OUT
AFTER THE PROGRAM
FOUND THAT FARMERS WHO
ACCESSED THE ADVISORIES
REALIZED A 30% LESS
CROP LOSS AS A RESULT OF
THE DROUGHT.

9. SAMPLE SPI ANALYSIS CLIMATE PRODUCT

10. AGROMET BULLETIN

11. Program Support
Over thirty AWS installed
outfitted with soil moisture
probes.
Hardware and software upgrades
to support climate data analysis.
Agromet advisory capacity
strengthened for extension
officers.
Series of farmers forum
reaching over a thousand
farmers.

12. OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD OUT A NATIONAL INTEGRATED CLIMATE
DATA SYSTEM
Despite the successes of the pilot project, there are
still some gaps required to facilitate the
mainstreaming of climate related decision support
across key climate vulnerable sectors such as
agriculture, water, fire, health, infrastructure
development, etc.

13. DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INTEGRATED CLIMATE
DATA MANAGEMENT
SYSTEM
 A whole of government approach, civil society, private
sector, academia and international development
partners.
 A dedicated unit for the generation, packaging
dissemination and storage of climate data.
 The unit in collaboration with the MSJ, should provide
oversight for the maintenance of the data
infrastructure.
 Each recipient agency should have a dedicated
domain for the access, storage and dissemination of
the climate decision support products or services.

14. POLICY DECISION ON THE
PARTICIPATION OF JAMAICA
IN THE CARIBBEAN
CATASTROPHE RISK
INSURANCE FACILITY (CRIF)
 Jamaica buys into the fund as a homogenous block.
 However, Jamaica has five distinct rainfall zones which
makes it difficult for the country to hit the trigger for
payout.
 There is a thought that if the country was to divide up into
smaller blocks (possibly by rainfall zones), then the
likelihood of sub- regions hitting the trigger for payout
would increase.
 It would be easier to provide the climate data to facilitate
the payout.
 Establish mechanisms on how individual sectors impacted
by the severe weather will benefit from these funds for
transparency.

15. Enhance access and
affordability of insurance
products to further strengthen
resilience in agriculture
production systems

16. EXPLORE OTHER APPLICATIONS
OF CLIMATE DECISION SUPPORT
TO FOOD SECURITY.
 Production planning or crop zoning.
 Yield forecasting and market planning
 Soil water balance- moisture
assessment and forecast, etc.

17. FINAL COMMENTS
JAMAICA’S EXPERIENCE WITH
CYCLICAL FOOD INSECURITY
DEMANDS THE INCLUSION OF
CLIMATE DATA IN PROGRAM
IMPLEMENTATIONS
INCREASED VULNERABILTY TO
CLIMATE EVENTS OF COUNTRY’S
ROAD
INFRASTRUCTURE DEMONSTRATES
A NEED FOR INTEGRATION OF
CLIMATE DATA IN THE
DEVELOPMENT APPROVAL
PROCESS
OVER 60% OF JAMAICA’S
TOURISM INFRASTRUCTURE IS
ALONG THE COAST EXPOSED TO
THE INCREASING IMPACT OF SEA
LEVEL RISE
THE INCREASING INCIDENCES OF
VECTOR BORNE DISEASES
SUGGEST A NEED FOR CLIMATE
DATA IN PLANNING AND
FORECASTING HEALTH CARE
RESOURCES

18. THANK YOU
MSJ
www.metservice.gov.jm
SLIDESGO
https://slidesgo.com/
FLATICON
https://www.flaticon.co
m/