Macroeconomic analysis of USA

1. Macroeconomic Analysis (USA)
By
Deepak Dharmavaram
deepakdharmavaram@gmail.com
(National Institute of Securities Markets)
5-Nov-2017

2. GDP Break-down By Sector (%,2016)
80.20%
18.90%
0.90%
Services Industry Agriculture

3. GDP-By-Industry
159.9
264.6
288.1
420.4
562.9
749.3
784
886
1087.1
1098
1576
2175.2
2308.6
2391.6
3817.4
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting
Mining
Utilities
Other services, except government
Transportation and warehousing
Arts, entertainment, recreation, and food services
Construction
Information
Retail Trade
Wholesale trade
Educational services, healthcare
Manufacturing
Proffessional and business services
Government
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing
Value added to the Gross Domestic Product of the United States of
America in 2016, by industry (in billions U.S. dollars)

4. GDP By Components
68.1 68.1 68.1 68.9 69.1
16.2 16.7 17.1 16.4 16.5
18.7 18.1 17.8 17.5 17.1
-2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 -2.7
14.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment
Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Net exports of goods and services
Real Gross Domestic Product ($Trillion)

6. Economy Data
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Consumption (annual variation in %) 1.5 1.5 2.9 3.2 2.7
Investment (annual variation in %) 9.8 5 5.5 4 0.7
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 3.4 3.5 4.3 0.1 0.4
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 2.2 1.1 4.4 4.6 1.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -6.7 -4.1 -2.8 -2.4 -3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 102 104 104 105 108
Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 5 3.6 4.3 2.6 3.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.1 1.3
Stock Market (annual variation in %) 7.3 26.5 7.5 -2.2 13.4

7. Economic Indicators
Leading Indicators
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM new order index
Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excl. aircraft
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Avg. consumer expectations for business and economic conditions
Coincident Indicators
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Personal income less transfer payments
Industrial production
Manufacturing and trade sales
Lagging Indicators
Average duration of unemployment
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Average prime rate
Commercial and industrial loans
Consumer installment credit to personal income ratio
Consumer price index for services

8. Total Market Capitalization to GDP

11. Economic Calendar
Event Impact
Fed Interest Rate Decision
ISMManufacturingPMI
Crude Oil Inventories
CBConsumerConfidence (Dec)
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Industrial production (MoM)
Michigan ConsumerExpectations (MoM)
CPI (MoM)
Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
ExistingHome Sales (MoM)
BloombergConsumerConfidence
Chicago Fed National Activity
NFIBSmall Business Optimism
Wholesale Inventories
Construction Spending(MoM)

12. Economic Forecast
1.7
2.6
2.9
1.5
2.2
2.4
2.08
0.25 0.25
0.5
0.75
1.5
2.25
2.5
1.5
1.56
0.2
1.35
2.1
2.1
2.3
7.4
6.1
5.2
4.9
4.2 4.1 4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(P) 2018(P) 2019(P)
Real GDP (YoY%) Interest Rate (%) CPI (YoY%) Unemployment (%)