The lack of transboundary water agreements/institutions between Afghanistan and its northern neighboring countries over the ADRB is significantly affecting the inter-state multilateral cooperation and the status of the water resources. No water resource sharing schemes were ever stipulated. If the Amu Darya River does not manage sustainably, in that case, it can turn over to be the prime cause of tension among the riparian countries connected through historical, cultural, environmental, and economic ties. The potential of interstate conflict and the opportunities of cooperation between the riparian’s on the water is mainly sourced in the state’s national interest. This policy paper’s primary focus is to answer the reasons for Afghanistan’s exclusion from the ADRB and current hydropolitics over the ADRB. It also focuses on inter-state cooperation as a catalyst for settlement water conflicts among the riparian nations. This research suggests that effective and multi-sectorial cooperation on Amu Darya River Basin is imperative rather than water-related conflicts. It put forward that water, energy, trade routes, and other sources of connectivity can bring Afghanistan and CARs together to initiate the potentials that they have. It would also help Amu Darya River Basin equitable and reasonable water resources utilization and help the Aral Sea in sustainable development. Despite the hydro-connectivity, the geo-economics connectivity is also promising in the region.

1. Hydropolitics of
Amu Darya River
Prospect of Conflict & Cooperation
Between Riparian Nations
Dawood Mohammadi
5th/April/2021

2. Hydropolitics:
Who gets what water, when, where and how?
 Turton (2002) define hydropolitics as the authoritative allocation of values
in society with respect to water.
 Transboundary Water a debated issue in International Relations, pursued
by riparian states.
 Importance based on: Scarcity, demands, interdependency, accessibility…
 Neo-Realism: Non-Traditional Security Issue: Zero-Sum Game, No
Cooperation, Survival…
 Liberalism: Cooperation through institutions and agreements
 Climate Change, Population Growth, Demands, Water Degradation

3. Water & Conflict:
 Sovereignty, Resource -Nationalism, -Ownership, National
Security, Bargaining Chip, Economic Development…
 Food Security, Human Security, Environmental Security
 State-Self-Sufficiency, Domestic Needs, Survival & Stability
 Transboundary Water: shared btw Upstream & Downstream
 Water Conflict: Opposing Interests of Water Users.

5. Multi-
Dimension
of Water
Natural Resource Economic Resource
Cultural Resource
Social Resource

6. Hydrology of Amu Darya
 Amu- Oxus, Jayhoon, Piter the Great of Russia, Research in end of 19th
Century, Map 1920
 ADRB: the Confluence of Wakhsh & Panjdh Rivers, Flows 1250 KM within
Afghanistan or along its border.
 Other tributarories Shiwa, Kokacha, Kunduz, Kafiernigann, Surkhan- Darya,
and Sherabad Darya Rivers.
 It irrigate 1.16 million hectares lands in Afghanistan
 It forms 1800 KM border of Afghanistan with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan &
Uzbekistan
 Discharge to Aral Sea, 20th & 21st Centuries diverted
 In 20th & 21st Centuries: Transboundary Water influenced the role of
Afghanistan in regional geopolitics: Border-Demarcation | Treaty | Hydro-
hegemony

8. Issues:
Connect &
Disconnect
Unilateral-
ism
Water
Quality
Infra-
structure.
Water
Quantity
Joint
Mngmnt.
Hydro
power
Irrigation
Flood -
Erosion

9. Past Hydropolitics of ADRB
 Peter the Great (1714) plan to turn Amu Darya from Aral to Caspian Sea.
 Many failed expedition: Resulted the conquest of Central Asia.
 The hydro-politics of the ADRB is to a greater extent based on the colonial history
of the Empires- British India & Tsarist Russia.
 Late 19th century Great Game: Amu Darya the northern border of Afghanistan
(Buffer State) with Tsarist Russia (1873).
 To success the colonial policy, conquest the nature | Mastery over Nature
 Virgin Lands Campaign: Shrink Aral Sea (1954-1963) Cotton Campaign
 ADRB is governed by various bilateral and regional treaties: between AFG & Russia
and among CARs. The former are boundary treaties and do not cover the use of the
Amu Darya, and the latter are, inter alia, water-sharing agreements that govern the
use of water.
 Afghanistan excluded from regional treaties;

10. Caspian Sea
Aral Sea

11. Aral Sea 1960-2018
Aral Sea Shrinking
Cotton Cultivation
Campaign
Virgin Lands Campaign

12. Current Hydropolitics of ADRB
 Afghanistan Water Renaissance post-2014
 Self-sufficiency & Economic Development
 Water Nationalism
 A daily topic in public discourse
 Power play
 Dam as Development Strategy
 Bargaining Chip
 Domestic Consumption & Demands
 Climate Change & Drought
 Transboundary Water a Chapter in Afghanistan Foreign Policy
 Hydro-Connectivity

13. Afghanistan Exclusion
 Excluded from pre and post-USSR water sharing arrangement on
Afghanistan
 Afghanistan as n Central Asian or South Asian nation (Geopolitics)
 Post-USSR, no riparian state shown any interest to engaged with
Afghanistan about ADRB
 Decades long war…
 Historical Injustice towards Afghanistan

14. Tajikistan:
 Increase Energy Generation (Export) & Expansion of Irrigation Lands
(200,000 Hectors – 500,000 Hectors).
 Zarafshan River diversion | Rogun Dam 3600 MW, UZBK concerns
Uzbekistan: agriculture depend on the Amu Darya river. 2.3 million irrigated
area. Cotton.
Expansion of irrigated lands….
Turkmenistan: Expansion of irrigated lands 450,000 Hectors. Artificial Lake
(Golden Century Lake) tension between Turk. & Uzb. Shrink Aral Sea
Blame Game: Zero-Sum Game

15. Agreements & Institutions on ADRB
Agreements:
 1873, Imposed International Boundary (Great Game)
 1946 Agreement: Border Demarcation
 1987, Protocol 566
 1992 Almaty Agreement
Institutions:
 International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS)
 Interstate Coordinating Water Commission (ICWC)
 Interstate Council on the Problems of the Aral Sea Basin
(ICAS)
 River Basin Organization 1987 (BVO)

16. Afghanistan: Climate Change,
Population & Water Demand
 Annual availability of freshwater reduced from 75 to 67 BCM
 Increasing Snow-melt in Pamir & Tian Shan mountains and Glaciers
 Afghanistan estimated warming will increased from 1.5 to 2.5 Centigrade in
2100.
 Low winter Rainfall in last 10-15 years
 Glaciers reduced more than 50% since the1930s
 Population forecast 63 million in 2050
 Drought impacts on agriculture, livestock and livelihood.
 Afghanistan 2nd after Haiti in among flood-effected countries.

17. Land Erosion, Degradation & IDP
 About 35,000 hectares land inside Afghanistan erode.
 Lost of living and cultivation lands: villages displaced along
the riparian of ADRB.

18. From Conflict to Cooperation

19. Hydro-Connectivity on ADRB
 A new chapter opened in Afghanistan & Central Asia Relations
 Connectivity Projects: TAPI, CASA 1000
 Regional Connectivity: Bridging Central Asia with South Asia
 Cooperation for access to markets, seaports, and energy
 ADRB provide plenty opportunities for joint-venture and investment on
the Amu River on the base of Benefit Sharing (Water-allocation or
hydropower generation)
 Opening way to regional geoeconomic connectivity

20. Challenges:
Domestic Level:
 Lack of reliable Data
 Lack of Financial resources for building of infrastructure
 Lack of adequate resource for survey on ground and surface water and
data collection
 Lack of coordination and cooperation on water-related government
institutions (NWARA exception)
 Lack of Master Plan on Panj-Amu River
 Lack of Human Capacity for water management and negotiation over
future utilization of ADRB

21. Regional Level Challenges
 Future climate change, rapid population growth, water scarcity, and security issues in Amu Darya
River
Basin.
 Riparian’s perception and consideration of the Future water resources management, development,
growth, and improvements.
 Exclusion of Afghanistan from Existing Water institutions and treaties on the ADRB
 Regional hydropolitics (post-USSR and Pre-USSR), in the Amu Darya River Basin.
 Soviet-imposed water allocation/distribution mechanisms in Central Asia.
 Lack of trust between the riparian states.
 Large-scale infrastructure is planned and constructed by the Upstreams and vehemently opposed
the downstream.
 Failed to save the Aral Sea from the environmental disaster
 Misuse and mismanagement of the water of the Amu Darya in the Central Asian states.
 Prioritized water for agriculture, which needs a vast quantity of water, such as cotton corps.
 Afghanistan has been treated as outside of the ADRB.

22. Recommendations
 Training and capacity-building bureaucrats, policymakers, and academics must be
started in the
disciplines of Water Resources Management, Hydropolitics, and Hydro-diplomacy.
 The government and IOs urgently needed to establish water-related conferences, to
make a public awareness regarding water usage, management, and critical issues to
building scientific capacity.
 Change and reconsider the policymaker’s and scientists’ perception of the current
potential and opportunities about the water-related negotiations with the Central Asian
States on the Amu-Darya river Basin.
 Provide links with the regional transboundary water-related institutions for discussion,
data sharing, and human capacity training.
 A joint inter-sectorial database should be created to share, keep, and use data.
 Transboundary water relations with Northern neighbors have been perceived as healthy
relations compared to Pakistan and Iran’s relations.
 Riverbank protection, floods, droughts are the entry points for discussion with Central
Asian countries.
 Transboundary water-related risks indicators of the acute conflicts have to be considered
from the national security threat.

23. Conclusion
 ADRB interesting area of regional conflicts & Cooperation
 The USSR committed an historical injustice towards Afghanistan by
Exclusion it from treaties and institutions on ADRB.
 The impacts of climate changes, population growth, scarcity of freshwater
and daily demands of water increasing quickly, which requires future
cooperation and new arrangements.
 New developments around the ADRB should be based on benefit-sharing
framework.
 Instead of unilateral developments, multilateralism should be promoted.
 Availability & in/accessibility of Freshwater vs National Security
 Avoid Conflict & Promote Cooperation

24. Thank You
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