THE 3rd WORLD WAR AND THE RESPONSIBLES FOR ITS OUTBREAK.pdf
The Russian Reset
1. REPORT
David Robinson
24 July 2015
The Russia Reset– An Overviewand Analysis
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GOALS and REASONS for a Reset:
The “Russianreset”was formallyannouncedinMarch 2009 whenthenSecretaryof State HillaryClinton
metwithRussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovinGeneva,Switzerland,offeringhimaliteral redreset
button. However,itsinitial architectwasU.S.AmbassadortoRussiaMichael McFaul whosoughtto work
withRussiainseeking andpursuingcommoninterests,suchasnucleararmsand diplomaticagreements.
The reasonsfor a resetof relationsbetweenWashington andMoscow came withthe escalationof
tensionsbetweenthe countriesdue to twomajorincidentsinthe late 2000’s:
Firstly,the 2008 SouthOssetiaWar saw the beginningsof aggressiveRussianforeignpolicyandmilitary
interventionisminthe name of protectingthe Russiadiasporainex-Sovietcountries.SeenasaRussian
reactionto GeorgianeffortstoenterNATO,thisincidentshowedRussia’scapabilityandwillingnessto
utilize force inordertohaltNATOexpansionontoitsborders.
Secondly,inAugust2008, the U.S.announcedplans tocreate ABMdefense systemsinPoland and
forwardoperating radarsystemsinthe CzechRepublic withthe statedaimof protectingWestern
Europe frompotential Iranianmissile attack.However,Russiasaw this asa shiftinthe balance of power
as an integratedABMsysteminEurope couldessentiallycounteractitsmissilesaswell,reducingtheir
capabilitiesandeffectiveness. RussiarespondedwithannouncementsthatitwouldsendIskander
missile systemstoitsKaliningradOblast,withinshortrange strikingdistance of the Polishcomplexes.
Initial SUCCESSES of the Reset:
- January 2009 – Russiasignsa deal that allowsU.S.and NATOforces accessto itsnorthern
corridorto allowsuppliestobypassPakistanandreachU.S.and NATOforcesinAfghanistan.1
- 17 September2009 – PresidentBarackObamaannounced thatthe EuropeanABM defense
program had beencancelledinbothPolandandthe CzechRepublic.RussianPresidentDmitri
Medvedevresponded byrescindingthe ordertomove IskandermissilesystemstoKaliningrad.2
- 8 April 2010 – In Prague,bothPresidentObamaandPresidentMedvedev signedNew START–
the newestbilateral nucleararmsreductiontreatybetweenthe U.S.andRussia.3
- 9 June 2010 – Afternumerousinstancesof opposition,Russiasupported UN SecurityCouncil
Resolution1929 whichimposed furthersanctionsonIranand theirnuclearprogram.Russiaalso
agreedto enacta self-enforcedbanonprovidingIranwithS-300air defense mobile missile
systemsamidpressure fromthe U.S.4
- 9 December2011 – Russiawas admittedtothe WTO withU.S. support.PresidentObamastated
“We thinkitis notonlyinthe interestsof the RussianFederation,butinthe interestsof the
UnitedStates,andin the interestsof the restof the world,thatRussiajoinsthe WTO.”5
2. RecentCHALLENGES of the Reset:
- October 2011-July 2012 – Russiavetoedatotal of three UNSC resolutionsoncondemningthe
violentactionsof PresidentAssadinSyriaandestablishingeconomicsanctionsonthe Assad
regime.6
- August 2013 – EdwardSnowden,afugitive U.S.intelligence contractor,wantedinthe U.S.for
leakinginformationaboutNSA surveillanceanddatacollection,wasgrantedone yearasylumin
Russiaby PresidentVladimirPutin.7
- 2014 – Euromaidanprotestsledtothe fall of ViktorYanukovych’spro-Russiangovernmentin
Kiev,Ukraine.NumerousUkrainian governmentbuildingsandtransportationcentersinCrimea
were seizedbyunmarkedmilitaryforces.
- March 2014 – Precedingthe Crimeanreferendum, U.S.Secretaryof State JohnKerrymetwith
RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovinLondoninfailedtalksoverCrimea.Lavrovtold
reporterstheyhad“no commonviews.”Crimeapassedareferendumtojointhe Russian
Federation.The move wascondemnedasanillegal actbythe U.S. andEU. Pro-Russian
demonstrationsbeganinDonetskandLuhanskwhichultimatelyledtoarmedseparatisminthe
Donbassregion.8
- August 2014 – Russiaextended EdwardSnowden’sasylumforthree more years.9
- 24 March 2014 – U.S.ledeffortskick Russiaoutof the G8 due to “Russia’sillegal attemptto
annex Crimeaincontraventionof international law andspecificinternationalobligations.”10
- 11 March 2015 – Russiaofficiallywithdrew fromthe Conventional ArmedForcesinEurope (CFE)
treaty,statingitis “pointlessfrompolitical andpractical pointsof view.”11
- 13 April 2015 – Russiasuspended itsself-imposedbanonsellingIran Russian-made S-300air
defense mobilemissilesystems,andhoped tobeginoil-for-goodsswapswhensanctionsonIran
are lifted.12
- May 2015 – RussiaofficiallyclosesitsNorthernDistributionNetworktothe U.S. andNATO
forcesinAfghanistan. 13
- 16 June 2015 – Includedinthe modernizationprogramof itsmilitary,Russiaannounced the
additionof 40 newlydesignedICBMsthatit intends tointroduce intoservice laterinthe year.
NATOresponded tothisannouncementsayingitis“nuclearsabre-rattling,”“unjustified,”and
dangerous.”Thisactioncame as a reactiontoU.S. announcementsof planstostore heavy
weaponsin Polandandthe Balticstates.14
3. ANALYSISof the Reset:
Evaluatingthe successor failure of the reset dependsonhow itsgoalsare defined.Formerambassador
to Moscow Michael McFaul hasdefendedthe policyof hisresetasitwas neveraboutchangingthe
overall relationsbetweenRussiaandthe U.S.Rather itwas meantto identifyand pursue commongoals
betweenthe twocountries.InMcFaul’sterms,the resetwasmeanttorenormalize U.S.relationswith
Russiaamidthe crisesof the 2008 SouthOssetiaWar andthe controversial EuropeanABMdefense plan.
In thissense,the resetcanbe definedasasuccessin that these criseswere peacefullyresolvedbetween
the U.S. and Russia.
Moreover,the Russianresetdidsetthe groundworkfor majoragreementsbetweenRussiaand the U.S.
such as Russianlogistical supportinthe warin Afghanistan andthe signingof the New STARTtreaty on
nuclearreduction.Italso arguablyfosteredconsensusononce previouslydivisive issuesbetweenthe
U.S. and Russia,suchas Russia’sagreementtosupportUN-ledsanctionsonIran.
However, if one istoaccept that the resetwithRussiawasonlymeantto accomplishsuchcommon
goals,the longevityof these accomplishmentsare still inquestion andmustbe takenintoaccount.
Russia’sallowance of U.S.andNATOforcesto use itsroutesintoAfghanistanasan alternative to
Pakistanwasseenasa majorsuccess;yetRussiaclosedthisroute in2015 amidcontinuinginternational
operations.NewSTARTwasseenasa major accomplishment; yetRussiahasdeveloped40new nuclear
capable ICBMs forintegrationintoitsarsenal. CoordinationregardingIranwasseenasan emerging
success;yetRussiahas rescindeditsrestrictiononsellingIranadvancedanti-aircraftmissilessystems.
Thus,in lightof recentRussianactions, itisclearto see that eventhe commongoals thatwere once
establishedinitiallyafterthe resethave deteriorated underthe newlyinvigorated tensionsbetweenthe
U.S. and Russia.
Before the reset,relationsbetweenRussiaandthe U.S.were at theirlowestsince the endof the Cold
War. However,nowtheyare arguably far worse. Ultimately,the wayinwhichthe resetcanbe
evaluatedisbasedonperspective.Didthe Russianresetleadtoa resolutionof the 2008 South Ossetia
War, a lessoningof tensionsoverEuropeanABMmissile defense,and anagreementregardingIranian
nuclearambitions?Definitely,yes. Dothese successesoutweighthe mountinglistof recentfailures?
Arguably,no. Didthese successesendureandpromote greaterU.S.-Russiarelationsinthe longterm?If
currenteventsare to act as indicators,then the resethasdone littleforlongtermrelationsas U.S.-
Russianrelationshave undoubtedlydeclined,andthe Europeancontinenthasnow remergedasamajor
and urgentsecurityinteresttothe U.S.
4. SOURCES
1 "US Opens Route to Afghanistan through Russia'sBackyard." TheGuardian. The Guardian,n.d. Web. 30 June
2015.<http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/mar/30/afghanistan-tajikistan-obama-pakistan>.
2 “Is Obama Throwing Eastern Europe Under the Bus?” Center for Strategic and International Studies. CSIS, n.d.
Web. 30 June 2015. <http://csis.org/blog/obama-throwing-eastern-europe-under-bus>.
3 "Treaty between The United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further
Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) | NTI." NTI: Nuclear Threat Initiative. N.p., n.d.
Web. 30 June 2015. <http://www.nti.org/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-between-the-united-states-of-america-and-
the-russian-federation-on-measures-for-the-further-reduction-and-limitation-of-strategic-offensive-arms/>.
4 "Security Council Imposes Additional Sanctionson Iran,Voting 12 in Favour to 2 Against,with 1 Abstention |
Meetings Coverage and Press Releases." UN News Center. UN, n.d. Web. 30 June 2015.
<http://www.un.org/press/en/2010/sc9948.doc.htm>.
5 "Despite Boost In U.S. Support, Russia's WTO Bid Still Faces Opposition In Georgia."
RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. N.p., n.d. Web. 30 June 2015.
<http://www.rferl.org/content/Despite_Boost_US_Support_Russia_WTO_Bid_Opposition_Georgia/2082635.html
>.
6 "FLASHBACK: How Russia Has Blocked International Action On Syria." ThinkProgress RSS. N.p., 09 Sept. 2013.
Web. 31 June 2015. <http://thinkprogress.org/security/2013/09/09/2587861/brief-history-russia-blocking-
international-action-syria/>.
7 "Snowden Leaves MoscowAirport to Live in Russia." Washington Post. The Washington Post,n.d. Web. 31 June
2015.<http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/snowden-leaves-moscow-airport-to-live-in-
russia/2013/08/01/2f2d1aba-faa9-11e2-a369-d1954abcb7e3_story.html>.
8 "Sergei Lavrov: The Russian Foreign Minister the U.S. Loves to Hate." Washington Post. The Washington Post,n.d.
Web. 31 June 2015. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/03/14/sergei -lavrov-the-
russian-foreign-minister-who-the-u-s-loves-to-hate/>.
9 Gorst,Isabel."Russia Gives Edward Snowden Asylum for Three More Years." Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles
Times, n.d. Web. 01 July 2015.<http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-russia-snowden-asylum-20140807-
story.html>.
10 "U.S., Other Powers Kick Russia outof G8 - CNNPolitics.com." CNN. CableNews Network, n.d. Web. 31 June
2015.<http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/24/politics/obama-europe-trip/>.
11 "Experts: Russia'sWithdrawal fromthe CFE Treaty Is a Signal to the West." Russia Beyond The Headlines. N.p.,
n.d. Web. 31 June 2015.
<http://rbth.com/international/2015/03/13/experts_russias_withdrawal_from_the_cfe_treaty_is_a _signal_to_t_4
4471.html>.
12 "RussiaOpens Way to MissileDeliveries to Iran,Starts Oil-for-goods Swap." Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 13 Apr.
2015.Web. 31 June 2015.<http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/13/us -iran-nuclear-russia-
idUSKBN0N40YX20150413>.
13 "NATO’s Once Vital Supply Link to Afghanistan via Russia Closes." Most Read. N.p., n.d. Web. 31 June 2015.
<http://www.stripes.com/news/nato-s-once-vital-supply-link-to-afghanistan-via-russia-closes-1.347249>.
14 "Putin:Russia to Boost Nuclear Arsenal with 40 Missiles - BBC News." BBC News. N.p., n.d. Web. 31 June 2015.
<http://www.bbc.com/news/world-33151125>.