20200407 asia covid 19 - grocery retail survey - japan v final-ds v2

McKinsey & Company 1
Japanese consumers seem not too worried about COVID-19’s impact
on their income and spending.
13
3
8
4
15
5
10
5
34
26
28
23
20
30
29
31
12
21
16
22
6
14
9
15
I think the media coverage on COVID-19 is
getting too sensational and creating more panic
I am very worried that my family’s income
will be impacted by COVID-19 situation to a level
where I will not be able to make ends meet
I am planning to give up something I was planning
to buy because of uncertainly from COVID-19
I am afraid to go outside to shop for groceries now
To what extent do you currently agree with following statements?
% of respondents
Disagree Strongly disagreeStrongly agree Agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree
During the COVID-19
outbreak …
Only 30% of consumers
agree that the media
coverage is getting too
sensational and creating
more panic
Only 10% are afraid to
go outside to shop for
groceries
Only 20% of the
consumers worry about
COVID-19’s impact on
household income
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 mobile survey, 3/23-3/24/2020, N = 500. Sampled and balanced to match Japan’s general population, 18-65 years old.

The results suggest no significant impact from COVID-19 on
sentiment toward safety, environmental impact, and local products.
4
3
2
8
7
6
4
12
32
41
27
38
35
31
43
31
15
12
13
8
7
8
9
4
I will spend more time to understand
product safety for my grocery purchases,
manufacturing process after COVID-19 outbreak
I will care more about product
safety after COVID-19 situation
I will consider grocery products that
are more environmental-friendly after
the COVID-19 outbreak
I will buy more foreign grocery
products after the COVID-19 outbreak
Disagree Strongly disagreeStrongly agree Agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree
Only 10% of the
consumers will care
more about product
safety
Only 10% of the
consumers will spend
more time to understand
product safety for their
grocery purchases
To what extent do you currently agree with following statements?
% of respondents

More consumers are temporarily spending less in all food channels,
except on groceries, and expect a slow ramp up.
1.Q: How has your spending per month changed during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak for each of the below items?
2.Q: For each of the following meal options, how do you expect your spending per month to change after the COVID-19 outbreak compared to now (during the COVID-19 outbreak)?
3.Net intent is calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents stating they expect to decrease spend from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spend.
33% of the consumers
have decreased their
spending on dine-in
restaurants during
COVID-19
5-10% of the consumers
have decreased their
spending on take-out,
delivery and RTE at
groceries
Post COVID-19, behavior
seems relatively
unchanged
Spend preference during
COVID-19 vs. before,1
Net behavior3
Spend preference after
COVID-19 vs. during,2
Net intent3
Dine in restaurant
+3% +4%Groceries purchased
from grocery stores
-33% +2%
Take out food from
restaurants
-7% -2%
Ready to eat food from
restaurant delivered to home
-6% +1%
Ready made food purchased
from grocery stores
-9% -1%
Decrease Stay similar Increase

A larger share of consumers have spent more on groceries during
COVID-19, especially in online channels.
1. Q: Among the below grocery shopping channels, which ones do you visit more/less frequently during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before?
2. Net behavior/intent is calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents stating they do/expect to decrease frequency/spend from the % of respondents stating they do/expect to increase frequency/spend,
3. Q: Within the below store types, which ones do you think you will visit more/less frequently after the COVID-19 outbreak stabilize?
4. Q: Which store types have you increase your spending per month during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before? (Percentage of consumers who have used each channel)
5. Q: Which store types have you decrease your spending per month during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before? (Percentage of consumers who have used each channel, excl. those who increased their spend at a particular channel)
6. Q: Which store types do you expect your spending per month to increase after the COVID-19 outbreak stabilizes? (Percentage of consumers who have used each channel)
Change in grocery purchase frequency,
% of respondents who visited each channel before COVID-19
Decrease Stays similar Increase
During vs. prior,1
Net reported behavior2
After vs. during,3
Net intent2
Change in grocery spending,
% of respondents who visited each channel before COVID-19
During vs. prior,45
Net reported behavior2
After COVID-19,6 % of
shoppers per channel who plan
to increase spending
Supermarket
CVS
Hypermarket
Discount Stores
Online grocery
Food Delivery Service
8%
4%
0%
2%
5%
-1%
8%
11%
1%
6%
6%
4%
13%
9%
3%
4%
11%
16%
10%
13%
3%
8%
9%
13%

Product availability is the dominant driver of in-store experience
during COVID-19.
42
28
28
22
18
11
8
8
6
2
Proactive communication of store cleaning procedures/policies
Promotions
Availability of hygienic services for in-store use for customers
Store staff demonstrating cleanliness practices
Product availability
Product prices for branded products
Availability of private brands
Able to shop without interacting with staff
Others
Availability of assistance from store staff
Most important factors impacting consumers’ current in-store experience,1
% of respondents selecting factor as top three
1. Q: What have been the most important factors for creating a positive in-store grocery shopping experience during the COVID-19 outbreak?

For the next few weeks, consumers say stable availability of fresh food
products is more important than pricing when choosing a grocer.
79
32
22
18
15 13
8
6 5 3 2 1
Robustness
of
cleanliness/
hygiene
practices in
store
Stable
availability
of fresh food
products
Store
location
(close
to home
or work)
Competitive
prices on
branded
products
Store is
open until
late at night
Stable
availability of
home brands
Stable
availability of
packaged/
frozen food
and other
non-fresh
products
Crowd
levels/
number
of people
in store
Store is
open early in
the morning
Ability to
shop and
pay without
interacting
with staff
Others I can order
online before
going to
store and
pick up or
get delivered
Most important factors in choosing a grocer to go to in the next four weeks,1
% of respondents selecting factor as top three
1. Q: What are the top 3 most important factors that will influence which physical store you do grocery shopping in during the next 4 weeks?
Stable availability of fresh food products
scored 10 ppt higher than competitive
pricing.

Although consumers report minimal spending increases, responses
show slightly increased consumption of storable products.
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
12
12
10
9
7
7
7
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
82
83
83
82
87
87
89
89
88
89
88
90
89
90
85
90
91
87
90
88
88
91
91
3
2
4
4
4
3
2
3
4
4
4
3
3
2
6
3
3
7
4
5
6
3
5
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
0
1
2
2
2
1
Household paper goods
Fresh sea food
Meat produced
Bottled water
Non-stable packaged food
Noodles / Pasta
Frozen meals
Snacks
Baby
Beverages
Health care
Soy based products
Fresh vegetables and fruits
Eggs
Pet care
Household care
Dairy
Rice
Deli meats
Beer
Fresh meat
Personal care
Other alcoholic beverages
Significantly increased (+20% or more) Somewhat decreased (-5 to -20%)Somewhat increased (+5 to +20% ) No change in spending Significantly decreased (-20% or more)
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
6
6
6
7
5
5
4
4
4
5
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
4
87
87
87
86
89
90
91
89
91
89
91
93
89
90
89
91
93
86
91
89
91
88
90
5
5
4
5
4
4
4
4
3
4
3
2
5
4
4
4
2
4
3
4
5
5
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
4
1
2
0
2
2
0
1. Q: How did you or your family’s spending per month change during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to before the COVID-19?
2. Q: How would you expect you or your family’s spending per month to change after the COVID-19 outbreak compared to now?
3. Net inflow is calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents stating they stop buying the item they have bought before during the outbreak from the % of respondents stating they only start purchasing the item during the outbreak.
0%
0%
0%
-1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-1%
0%
0%
Net Inflow3
Consumption during COVID-19 situation vs. before,1
% of respondents who buy each item
Anticipated consumption after COVID-19 situation vs.
during,2 % of respondents who buy each item
-1%
2%
1%
0%
1%
1%

McKinsey and Company 8
10 percent of consumers have tried different brands due to
availability, but 90 percent plan to go back to their usual brands.
91% of consumers have
not tried new/alternate
product brands
9% of consumers have
tried new/ alternate product
brands
Reason for switching brands1
91% of
consumers
plan to switch
back to usual
brand after
COVID-19
1. Q: If yes, why did you switch from the brands you usually purchase to new/alternate options?
70
26
24
22
11
New/alternate options were
under promotions/display
Brands that I usually purchase
were not available
New/alternate options offer
better value (are cheaper)
New/alternate options are
easier to consume during
the COVID-19 outbreak
New/alternate options are
safer
Primary driver for switching to a new brand/product during
COVID-19,1 % respondents who have tried new/alternate product
brands
Post-COVID-19
situation3

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