AASHTO October 2014 Summit FINAL 1G Agenda 10 15 14 Rev Herby2
Evaluating Risk and Resilience for Transportation
1. Evaluation and Planning for Risk and Resilience -
Cases in Transportation
12/11/2012
Silvana V Croope, Ph.D. – TSHUG and DEHUG Leader - DELDOT
2. Key Items
The problem: local data and information
Hazard: flooding roads
From vulnerability to risk assessment and proactive
mitigation
Current Delaware effort towards a Level 2 analysis
Next steps – Hazus analysis
3. Severe weather damage at I-696 and I-75 in
Oakland County, Michigan
Tuesday, August 12, 2014 (morning – 11 feet of water)
Tuesday, August 12, 2014 (afternoon – vehicles revealed)
6. TRANSPORTATION UPDATE
Irene changed how VTrans operates and process – focused
on innovation.
6
Vermont
AASHTO 2013
7. Infrastructure Health Monitoring
Public infrastructure damage assessment is critical to
employment and economic restoration:
systematically assess safety of (probable) affected
surrounding buildings and infrastructures
perimeter control of the damaged area and local access
establishing the base for recovery and mitigation
Damage assessment vary according to type of disaster and
debris, impact different and many jurisdictions and is recorded
differently.
single infrastructure (and its
components)
resilience of the critical
infrastructure network =
9. Integration of Emergency Management Services
with Transportation Asset Management
Response (during event)
Mitigation/Adaptation
(before and after event)
BENEFITS
• Optimization of
resources (Level Of
Service up, costs
down)
• Tracking (who, what,
where, when)
Planos e Coordenação de atividades entre Defesa Civil, Guarda Nacional, Transporte e
Trânsito, Polícia, Bombeiros, Energia, Telecommunicações, ONGs ...
10. Related Infrastructure
AW – Artesian Water DPE – Delmarva Power Electric
DPG – Delmarva Power Gas ITMS – Fiber
VER - Verizon ...
13. Proactive Mitigation - Hazus
Mapping common flooding roads
Confirming issues with new events (e.g. Hurricane Sandy)
Hazus Level 1 analysis: mitigation strategies (default data)
Proactive Mitigation as an overall perspective
Project on Weather/Flooding Monitoring System for
Statewide coverage
Road Weather Monitoring Information System + hydrology sensing
Approaching issues with Sea Level Rise and Climate change
https://www.fema.gov/hazus
16. Risk Assessment and Resilience of Systems
Risk Resilience
- Impacts
- Hazus (frequent & stronger
storms: WIND, FLOOD)
- Insight for mitigation
- Preparedness
- Mitigation
- Actions, plans, projects
(resilience engineering/hardening,
resilience network/adaptation,
resilience planning/urban
engineering)
System capacity to absorb disturbance and reorganize
Principles: redundancy, robustness, rapidity,
resourcefulness
Systems designs vulnerability (damage from hazardous
events) & increasing adaptive capacity of systems
17. Strategies and analysis (e.g. roads)...
Abandon, repair, rebuild typical flooding roads?
Impact on projects benefit-cost analysis (FEMA BCA)
Data updates for Hazus
road elevation, classification and material
bridge structure and elevation
other transportation assets
Constant
Changing
Environment
18. Research done DelDOT/UD
“Abandon, Repair or Improve Roads in the Face of
Climate Change” with Rob McCleary
“DelDOT Summer Interns Estimate Costs for Future
Flooding Repairs” (Kimberly Ambrose – CAIT/UD) -
$1.45 billion with Michael Kirkpatrick
Being confirmed ...
(publication Transearch – Delaware Center for Transportation – Summer/Fall 2013 Vol.13,
No. 2)
23. Ph.D. Research – Croope 2010
• Condition
• Performance
• Life-cyle
• Dependencies
• Interdependencies
Asset
Management
Risk Assessment
• Vulnerability
Assessment
• Impact Assessment
• Damage Assessment
(failure)
HAZUS
• Where
• When
• What (DHS list)
• How much
• Who
Decision Support
System -
(Grigg at all, 2001)
29. DelDOT Layers Descriptions
• Trees – Trees collected in
DelDOT right away 4” in
diameter or greater
• Signal Poles – By Type
• Light Poles – Type of
Construction
• Roadway Features – Data pulled
from the DelDOT Road Inventory
Collection Database
• Evacuation Routes- Statewide
Roads Designated for evacuation
35. Next Steps
Continue to monitor real-time flooding events on
transportation
Develop disruption analysis with traffic flow modeling
Assess access to critical facilities, existing evacuation
routes vulnerability, detours and economic impact
Finish testing current models in Hazus for
Transportation
Bridge fragility curves, rain curves
DelDOT data approach within Hazus
Damage and debris estimation
36. Thank You!!!
Nancy Pomerleau, DHS
FHWA Officials
DOT Officials
Ralph Reeb, DelDOT
Bernie Gilbert, DelDOT
Michael Kirkpatrick
Eric Berman, FEMA/Hazus Program Manager
Douglas Bausch, FEMA
Cynthia McCoy, FEMA Region III
Silvana V Croope, Ph.D., ENV SP
Silvana.Croope@state.de.us
Editor's Notes
Robustness – strength to withstand any external forces;
Rapidity – capacity to meet priorities and achieve goals in a timely manner to avoid disruptions;
Redundancy – ability to satisfy functional requirements in the event of disruption;
Resourcefulness - ability to identify problems, establishes priorities, and mobilizes resources.
