Thinking systemically in a shrinking world: disease emergence, global change and human carrying capacity
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Talk given September 2013, Visva Bharati University, Shanti Niketan, India
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Thinking systemically in a shrinking world: disease emergence, global change and human carrying capacity
- 1. CRICOS #00212K Thinking systemically in a shrinking world: disease emergence, global change and human carrying capacity Visva Bharati University, Shanti Niketan W.B. India, September 3, 2013 Prof Colin Butler, ARC Future Fellow
- 2. CRICOS #00212K “As early as my first years at University I had begun to feel misgivings about the opinion that mankind is constantly developing in the direction of progress. My impression was that the fire of its ideals was burning low without anyone noticing it or troubling about it.” Albert Schweitzer (1875-1965) (Nobel Peace Laureate, advocate of ahimsa) 2
- 3. CRICOS #00212K I selected a beautiful place, far away from the contamination of town life, for I myself, in my young days, was brought up in that town in the heart of India, Calcutta, and all the time I had a sort of homesickness for some distant lane somewhere, where my heart, my soul, could have its true emancipation... I knew that the mind had its hunger for the ministrations of nature, mother-nature … " 3
- 4. CRICOS #00212K “It was always the objective in Santiniketan that learning would be a part of life's natural growth. The first step towards this objective was to establish in the child a sense of oneness with nature. A child has to be aware of his surroundings - the trees, birds and animals around him. The mind is deprived if one is indifferent to the world outside. From the beginning, he wanted his students to be aware of their environment..” 4
- 5. CRICOS #00212K Dian Fossey (1932-1985) and young mountain gorilla Eco-connection 5
- 6. CRICOS #00212K Three examples 1. Infectious Diseases of Poverty (journal article) (2012) 2. Climate Change and Global Health (edited book) (2014) 3. Human carrying capacity and human health (journal title) (2004) 6 Thinking systemically in a shrinking world: disease emergence, global change and human carrying capacity
- 8. CRICOS #00212K Acknowledgements 6 “Di TRGIV: “Environment, agriculture and infectious diseases of poverty” Prof AJ McMichael (ANU) Prof Xiao-Nong Zhou (China CDC) WHO Technical Report Also Bianca Brijnath, Adrian Sleigh 8 Special Programme for Tropical Diseases Research
- 9. CRICOS #00212K 9 EIDs = emerging infectious diseases GEC = global environmental change
- 10. CRICOS #00212K A. Global environmental change B. Nipah virus case study C. Emerging infectious diseases: a call for deeper thought D. What causes a really major epidemic? E. Thinking systemically – things are connected 10
- 11. CRICOS #00212K resources climate nutrition governance 11 weakening global health determinants global environmental change
- 12. CRICOS #00212K 0-2013 c.e. 12 Borlaug’s warning Nobel prize speech President Reagan: population problem “vastly exaggerated” Le Bras: “The problem has become a bit passé” (US Pop Mtg) 1st “check” 2nd “check”
- 13. CRICOS #00212K Last Glaciation CO2 has not been this high in >half a million years. CO2 from fossil fuel is dominant cause of current warming. Last interglacial 350 300 250 200 Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppmv) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Thousands of Years Before Present [Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4] Carbon Dioxide Concentration in Atmosphere over past 650,000 years 280 ppm (‘pre-industrial’) Modern Homo sapiens Agriculture begins, 10K BP Holocene 400 ppm CO2 (2013) 13
- 14. CRICOS #00212K Most radiation absorbed by Earth, warming it Most radiation absorbed by Earth, warming it Some energy is radiated back into space as infrared waves Some energy is radiated back into space as infrared waves The strength of the sun varies a littleThe strength of the sun varies a little Aerosols: net cooling effect Aerosols: net cooling effect Feedback - additional GHGs Some outgoing infrared radiation trapped by atmosphere, warming it Some outgoing infrared radiation trapped by atmosphere, warming it 14
- 15. CRICOS #00212K CH4 CO2 Green house gases N2O Sulfate particles Radiative forcing NO2 CH4 O3 CH4 CO2 Slide adapted from one courtesy Prof Steffen Loft, University of Copenhagen, Denmark wetlands, rice, tundra, biomass burning, deforestation CO2 CH4, black carbon CO2 15
- 16. CRICOS #00212K Sea Level: 1993-2012 Rainfall intensity : 1900-2011Land-ocean temperature: 1880-2011 Earth system observations Greenland ice melt 2013
- 17. CRICOS #00212K 17 “Anthropocene”: the human dominated age (Paul Crutzen)
- 18. CRICOS #00212K integrative interactive, feedbacks, thresholds (emergence, phase changes, shocks ) context – milieu – “terrain” Systems thinking 1818
- 19. CRICOS #00212K 19 EIDs = emerging infectious diseases GEC = global environmental change
- 20. CRICOS #00212K s 20Apologies to unnamed photographers Nipah outbreak Malaysia 1997-9
- 21. CRICOS #00212K Pigs (millions) Mangoes (104 tonnes) Pulliam et al, 2011 Agricultural intensification in western peninsular Malaysia response 21
- 22. CRICOS #00212K 22 Emerging diseases – a call for deeper thought
- 23. CRICOS #00212K 23 emerging disease perspective in developed countries focus on novel and exotic pathogens less attention to drug resistance in familiar pathogens, e.g. TB and malaria & insecticide resistant vectors, molluscs
- 24. CRICOS #00212K 24 335 Emerging Infectious Disease “events” Jones et al. Nature, (2008) No category for vectorial resistance
- 25. CRICOS #00212K Acinetobacter baumannii resistance: gentamycin, imipenem, multiple drug, polymixin [4 in total] Bartonella bacilliformis; + resistance to chloramphenicol ; elizabethae , henselae , quintana [5 in total] Candida krusei, tropicalis, albicans (1981) + resistance: fluconazole, ketoconazole, micronazole; Candida glabrata (fluconazole-res); [7 in total] 25 EIDs: not all equal Jones et al. Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature, 451, 990-994. (2008) supplement 16/335 Emerging Infectious Disease “events”
- 26. CRICOS #00212K 3 needles in the 335 “event” EID haystack HIV-1 artemisin resistant Plasmodium falciparum multiple drug resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis Nipah? spilling over .. matter of time .. efficiently spread among people” NYT 2012 26 ?
- 27. CRICOS #00212K 27 335 Emerging Infectious Disease “events” Jones et al. Nature, (2008) No reflection of disease burden, now or potential
- 28. CRICOS #00212K milieu and microbe capti onClaude Bernard (1813-1878)
- 29. CRICOS #00212K “Pathogenic tradeoff” Pathogens “want” to reproduce Effect on host not of concern: Sometimes 1. hurt, don’t kill 2. don’t hurt 3. kill slowly 4. kill quickly pathogen reproduction chance enhanced 4. In comparison, reproduction harder trend to co-existence 29 Ewald P (2004). Evolution of virulence. Infectious Disease Clinics of North America 18:1–15.
- 30. CRICOS #00212K New milieus: different tradeoff? pathogens in crowded host milieus that kill quickly have - numerous other hosts to colonise - hosts may have high genetic similarity - LITTLE or No evolutionary penalty from rapid host mortality might viruses that cause rapid infections (even severe) be favoured? (do slower acting viruses have less opportunity to reproduce?) 30
- 31. CRICOS #00212K31 Low Pathogenic Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza
- 32. CRICOS #00212K Crowded, immobile hosts: new pathogen opportunities? 32
- 33. CRICOS #00212K 33 Milieu and the Adapted from Oxford et al Lancet Inf Diseases 2002; 2:111-4 2.5% global mortality (with bacterial co-infections)
- 34. CRICOS #00212K Future civilisation: a risky milieu energy, raw materials: emerging scarcity economic system: archaic inequality: civil stress, terrorism, fascism, war 34
- 35. CRICOS #00212K1998 2000 2004 2008 2011 Adapted from Murray & King, Nature. 2012; 481: 433-5. Apparent production cap 2005: Plateau Oil Production (million barrels/day) Oil price (US$ per barrel) 35 $1 billion a day, from Europe, Nth America Third carbon age? Runaway warming, water risk
- 36. CRICOS #00212K 36 Wise TA. The Cost to Developing Countries of U.S. Corn Ethanol Expansion: Tufts University; 2012.
- 39. CRICOS #00212K 39 rapid public health response* limited antimicrobial resistance, but increasing nutrition ok public health breakdown nutrition worse living conditions worse conflict increasing? Could civilisation failure “breed” a megapandemic? * For diseases perceived as major threats to developed countries
- 40. CRICOS #00212K Potential EID categories later this century (by burden of disease) all connected – a systems view 40
- 41. CRICOS #00212K41
- 43. CRICOS #00212K Heat waves, fewer cold waves, injuries, floods, fires Infectious diseases, especially vector borne, allergies, air pollutants, infrastructure secondary primary tertiary Health effects of eco-climate stress famine, conflict, pop’n displacement, refugees, development failure 4343 Mentalhealth
- 44. CRICOS #00212K Water scarcity Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage • climate change affecting crops • sea level rise • pre-existing hunger • armed conflict, current/recent From UK Ministry of Defence [May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture] Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions
- 45. CRICOS #00212K 45 “The dangerous impacts of climate change can only be discussed in terms of nonlinear behavior.’’ Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
- 46. CRICOS #00212K Butler Climate Change and Global Health, CABI, UK, in press
- 47. CRICOS #00212K 4747 “Social vaccine” “Demand will create a parachute”
- 49. CRICOS #00212K Panic, despair, or indifference 49 “Polyanna” “Social vaccine” spectrum
- 50. CRICOS #00212K50 Not just “natural” capital – But interaction of natural, human, social, built, financial And some would say moral
- 51. CRICOS #00212K51
- 52. CRICOS #00212K Dian Fossey (1932-1985) and young mountain gorilla Eco-connection 52
- 53. CRICOS #00212K Crisis = opportunity 53
- 54. CRICOS #00212K Ingenuity in the Year without a summer (1816) 54
- 55. CRICOS #00212K Global Energy Assessment, 2012 Solar (1975-2007 2007-10) NUCLEAR US$/kwH (2005 dollars) 55
- 56. CRICOS #00212K 56 56 India: planning 455 new coal plants
- 57. CRICOS #00212K 57 Global Energy Assessment, 2012Global Energy Assessment, 2012 Unmet electricity need 57
- 58. CRICOS #00212K 58 Global Energy Assessment, 2012 Lack of “modern” energy Most electricity is not clean
- 59. CRICOS #00212K Lock-in of Technological and Social Cultures & Institutions The QWERTY Phenomenon SUBSIDIES: fossil fuel /renewables: 6 to 1 (2011 ) 10 times more than costs of Hurricane Sandy 59 Hurricane Sandy 2012
- 60. CRICOS #00212K60
- 61. CRICOS #00212K He Had a dream 61
- 62. CRICOS #00212K Édouard Le Roy Paul Crutzen noösphere (planetary thinking, sharing) 62
Editor's Notes
- Disease Emergence and Global Change: Thinking Systemically in a Shrinking World Professor Colin D Butler National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra The Shanghai Forum on Surveillance Response System Leading to Tropical Diseases Elimination Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) include old diseases with new drug resistance, and formerly included old diseases with new vectorial insecticide resistance. These categories legitimately engender concern, however, most anxiety about EIDs is of genuinely novel conditions, such as HIV/AIDS and SARS. Yet, with the single exception of HIV/AIDS, the burden of morbidity and mortality of novel infections is very low, even trivial, compared to old maladies such as TB, malaria, diarrhoea, lower respiratory tract infections in children and other diseases associated with poverty and undernutrition. The burden of disease of neglected tropical diseases such as hookworm and schistosomiasis is also far higher than novel EIDS (other than HIV/AIDS). Nonetheless, the economic cost to prepare and cope with some novel EIDs despite their apparent low disease burden, most notably SARS and H5N1, is very high, mainly because they are perceived as placing wealthy populations at unaccustomed risk. More rigour and nuance is needed in the conceptualisation of EIDs. Instead of viewing them as a single category, can criteria be developed to guide the global public health community to distinguish major from minor EID threats? Relatedly, the milieu in which diseases evolve and emerge may be more important than the pathogen. Understanding and modifying the milieu may therefore cost-effectively reduce pandemic risk. Excessive attention to pathogens has contributed to a high opportunity cost, as has excessive attention to many EIDs with a low potential public health burden. For example, insufficient systemic thinking, including appreciation of evolutionary drivers, has led to excessive focus on 'magic bullets', with adverse consequences for pharmaceuticals, insecticides and agriculture. These include high rates of drug and insecticide resistance and poly-pharmacy. Excessive faith in plants genetically modified to resist insecticides has also stimulated the evolution of insecticide resistant weeds and insects. As a result there has been little transition to upstream, preventative thinking from the curative, acute model (where the bulk of funding remains concentrated) However, while scepticism about novel EIDs may be warranted, adverse global environmental change (GEC) may indeed predispose humanity to very severe future global public health problems, particularly from “old” diseases. Scarcely recognised as yet, adverse GEC such as climate change, energy scarcity, biofuels and diminishing phosphate reserves are already driving food prices higher, thus undermining nutrition and immunity. The determinants of an adequate public health response are also being eroded, as is now evident in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Improved understanding of the relationships between human-induced changes to the environment, especially agricultural, climatic and energy-related, is fundamental to reduce these interconnected challenges. Upstream, integrated-systems thinking is complex, socioeconomically and politically risky, and difficult to measure, but is where the greatest gains stand to be made, concerning both EIDs and GEC.
- It was always the objective in Santiniketan that learning would be a part of life's natural growth. The first step towards this objective was to establishin the child a sense of oneness with nature. A child has to be aware of his surroundings - the trees, birds and animals around him. The mind is deprived ifone is indifferent to the world outside. Rabindranath said we concentrate on learning from books and neglect the knowledge that is freely available on all sides. From the beginning, he wanted his students to be aware of their environment, be in communication with it, probe it, make experiments and collect data and specimens. And to guide them he wanted teachers who could go beyond book-learning, who were seekers themselves and who would find joy in the process of learning. In this context one might mention Tejeschandra Sen, who along with Jagadananda Roy, was one of the pioneering teachers of Nature Study in India. They were able to instill in children a love for and curiosity about the natural world. Lord Haldane, visiting Santiniketan in 1954 was much impressed with Tejeschandra' s method of teaching.
- http://www.yog2009.org/index.php?view=article&catid=46%3Agorillaspecies&id=70%3Amgspeciesinfo&option=com_content&Itemid=70
- Acknowledgements, disclaimer : 1. collective intelligence, knowledge in room; disclaimer: this is just a small part of the report Values – in search of public goods (motivated by long term self interest)
- Human + mouth = human population Le Bras – mentioned in a Sci American article
- The green bars show uncertainty estimates. These are 4 earth system indicators. I could have chosen many more. Those of you who are or who have been clinicians know how important the bedside chart is, or perhaps the chart in the kennel or veterinary hospital. When I used to go on ward rounds it would often be the first thing I’d look at it. Here, we can see the temperature of the land and ocean is rising, there is growing evidence that rainfall is becoming more erratic, with both more intense rainfall and also more intense drought; with more variability, making it harder for farmers. This also has implications for human health, especially those living in low lying areas near rivers, in poor housing. The third indicator is sea level rise. The good thing about this is that the rate of rise is not noticeably increasing, at least over the last 20 years. However that is likely to change later this century. The final sign here is the extent of Arctic ice. The blue line is very recent data, from just a few weeks ago, and it show the coverage of Arctic ice since November. Basically it is tracking the dotted line which is the earlier record low, from 2006-07. The grey band is the average between 1979-2000.
- I have been very pleased to hear several other speakers discuss systemic thinking, but for those of you who are new to the idea I thought I’d list a few keywords: Integrative Interactive, feedbacks, thresholds (emergence, phase changes, shocks A phase change is something that happens very often in Davos – each time a little ice melts or freezes. I’ll also talk a little about emerging diseases, and the concept of the disease milieu, or “terrain” Finally; self-organisation. It is a characteristic of complex systems. We might hope for a little less territoriality in the world, less “top down”
- Figure 1. (a) Epidemiological data from the entire outbreak region, (b) the index farm and (c) evidence of agricultural intensification. (a) Symptomatic Nipah virus cases in Malaysia and Singapore, January 1997–April 1999; data are from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports [7,8], records from the Department of Veterinary Services and the Ministry of Health, Malaysia [16]. Further information on case numbers can be found in the electronic supplementary material. (b) Detection of Nipah virus-induced pre-weaning mortality in the three breeding sections on the index farm. To investigate the timing of Nipah-induced mortality in the three breeding sections, we define a piglet mortality index (PMI) that compares the observed mortality for each litter with expected mortality (based on the number of piglets born and the time from farrow to wean). Here we present average PMI values through time, shown as quantiles of the values observed during the parametrization period; raw litter-level PMI values are shown in the electronic supplementary material. The presence of Nipah virus is suggested when pre-weaning mortality of piglets is significantly greater than expected, and we infer the presence of Nipah virus when significant excess mortality is observed in multiple litters during the same time period or coincident with human cases. The binned PMI values show that significant mortality peaks occurred in the Breeding Nucleus and Breeding section 2 during the time period of the first cluster of human cases in early 1997; individual litters in Breeding section 1 also showed elevated mortality during this time period (electronic supplementary material). Piglet mortality then returned to baseline levels until approximately July 1997, corresponding to the time of the next observed human cases, around which time the virus is likely to have been reintroduced from the flying fox reservoir. Model output analysed in the same manner as the piglet mortality data from the index farm is shown in the electronic supplementary material. (i) Breeding Nucleus; (ii) Breeding section 1; (iii) Breeding section 2. (c) Commercial production of mangoes and domestic pigs in Malaysia, 1961–2005. The drop in both mango (dashed lines) and pig production (solid line) between 1998 and 1999 is because of the depopulation and closing of pig farms in areas infected with Nipah virus. Mangoes on these farms were not harvested and many of the orchards have since been abandoned or converted to other crops. Data are from the Food and Agricultural Organization’s Agricultural Production database.
- Slide #42: A couple of concerns: First, be careful of the use of the word "terrorists"; these are often "liberation fighters". Second, the line "Serial passage it through humans. I reckon that you want to delete the word "it". Slide #44: Add bullets to the left of each line-entry
- A person who interests me a great deal is the French physician, Claude Bernard, a predecessor of Pasteur. Bernard is credited with developing the principle of bodily homoestasis. It is said, though there is some controversy about this, that near the end of his life Lous Pasteur said something like: Bernard was right – it is the milieu, or terrain, not the microbe that really matters. But I want to suggest that both matter. Now in the top box we have a flock of wild birds. These birds are mobile, of varying age groups, and probably of varying immune status. Sometimes they exist in large numbers, but they probably rarely if ever experience the density and proximity of the birds on the right. **** Stillwaggon E. HIV/AIDS in Africa: fertile terrain. Journal of Development Studies. 2002; 38: 1-22. Zumla A. Pulmonary infections: ‘le terrain est tout, le microbe n’est rien’. Current Opinion in Pulmonary Medicine. 2011; 17(3): 131-3.
- Accepting “selfish gene” concept
- Because of lack of time, I am not going to try to explain in any detail the evolutionary factors which I think make HPAI more likely to evolve in the indoor bird flock than the outdoor one, but essentially I think it is related to the trade-off hypothesis, developed by the evolutionary biologist Paul Ewald and others. To simplify, this theory is that pathogens, in order to maximise the longevity of their species, generally trade rapid lethality for a more benign state, which gives the pathogen a greater chance to reproduce. If a pathogen kills all of its hosts very quickly then it runs out of hosts. Essentially, I am suggesting that the industrial chicken farm creates the conditions for the H5N1 – and perhaps other flu viruses and other pathogens, to evolve in ways that are very contagious to birds and also that there is less evolutionary penalty from having a high and rapid lethality. **************** Normile D. Pandemic skeptics warn against crying wolf. Science. 2005; 310: 1112-3. Ewald P. Guarding against the most dangerous emerging pathogens: insights from evolutionary biology. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 1996; 2(4): 245–57 Control of emerging infectious diseases will be difficult because of the large number of disease-causing organisms that are emerging or could emerge and the great diversity of geographic areas in which emergence can occur. The modern view of the evolution of pathogen virulence—specifically its focus on the tradeoff between costs and benefits to the pathogen from increased host exploitation—allows control programs to identify and focus on the most dangerous pathogens (those that can be established with high virulence in human populations). Lebarbenchon, C., C. J. Feare, et al. (2010). "Persistence of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in natural ecosystems." Emerging Infectious Diseases 16(7). Understanding of ecologic factors favoring emergence and maintenance of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses is limited. Although low pathogenic avian influenza viruses persist and evolve in wild populations, HPAI viruses evolve in domestic birds and cause economically serious epizootics that only occasionally infect wild populations. We propose that evolutionary ecology considerations can explain this apparent paradox. Host structure and transmission possibilities differ considerably between wild and domestic birds and are likely to be major determinants of virulence. Because viral fitness is highly dependent on host survival and dispersal in nature, virulent forms are unlikely to persist in wild populations if they kill hosts quickly or affect predation risk or migratory performance. Interhost transmission in water has evolved in low pathogenic influenza viruses in wild waterfowl populations. However, oropharyngeal shedding and transmission by aerosols appear more efficient for HPAI viruses among domestic birds.
- In recent years, there has been enormous concern that H5N1 will become a devastating human pandemic. This apprehension seems not just of an “ordinary” pandemics such as those which have probably occurred every few decades for several centuries, most recently in 1968, but something far more deadly, perhaps even rivalling the 1918-20 pandemic most commonly called the “Spanish” flu (I apologise to the Spaniards in the room). It is fairly well known, especially to this audience, that that pandemic killed about 2.5% of the global human population - though many of deaths were from secondary bacterial pneumonia, reducible had antibiotics been available; nonetheless there is universal agreement that the virus was very severe to humans. Here, I declare heresy, and request indulgence. I don’t think the above scenario is likely, because I don’t think we currently have the right milieu to “breed” a strain of influenza that will be sufficiently devastating to humans. However I think that such conditions did exist towards the end of WWI on the Western Front, and it is conceivable they could re-emerge. The virus almost certainly did not originate at the Western Front, but may have arrived in about 1916, and then gradually increased its human killing power over the next two years, before being seeded throughout the world, including in densely crowded troop ships that perhaps allowed the virus to maintain high lethality and transmissibility. There were also opportunities for viral mixing on the front with various bird species and pigs. But the most fundamental difference was the high and densely populated number of troops, some with co-existent infections, some with exposure to poison gas. In summary, I think the conditions on the front were rather similar to an intensive chicken farm. You can see that I am not the first to think like this, indeed I am indebted to John Oxford and his group for seeding this idea in me, in their paper, from 2002. I also attribute Paul Ewald as an influence. Even if we are all wrong I think the possibility warrants far more attention than it so far been received. **** Soldiers from Fort Riley, Kansas ill with Spanish influenza at a hospital ward at Camp Funston in 1918, where the worldwide pandemic is hypothesized by some to have begun. Oxford, J. S., A. Sefton, et al. (2002). "World War I may have allowed the emergence of "Spanish" influenza." Lancet Infectious Diseases 2: 111-114.
- In summary, we have a civilisation at risk. We have emerging scarcity of raw materials, not just oil and energy; but also phosphate – essential for fertiliser - and rare earths – essential for the New Industrial Revolution that optimists look forward to. We have an archaic economic system, better suited for a world much earlier on the curve, before the planet got so full. This system denies limits to growth, and we need urgently need the Green Economy .. but this has been pointed out by visionaries from John Stuart Mill to EF Schumacher for a long time, with little result, as yet. Finally, we have immense inequality, that breeds civil stress, terrorism, fascism and war ---- Jackson, T. 2009. Prosperity without growth? The transition to a sustainable economy. Sustainable Development Commission. Meadows, D. H., D. L. Meadows, J. Randers, W. W. B. III. 1972. The limits to growth. New York: Universe Books. Meadows, D. L., W. W. B. III, D. H. Meadows, R. F. Naill, J. Randers, E. K. O. Zahn. 1974. Dynamics of growth in a finite world. Massachusetts: Wright-Allen Press, Inc. Turner, G. M. 2011. Consumption and the environment: Impacts from a system perspective. In: Landscapes of urban consumption. Edited by P. W. Newton. Collingwood: CSIRO Publishing. 51-70.
- Here is another indicator, of a precious earthly fluid, called oil. Essentially, we are bleeding our home planet of stored fossil fuel. This chart was published last month in Nature. One of the authors is Sir David King, the former chief scientist of the UK. It also shows the abysmal failure of brown economics. The red line show the price of oil in US$ since 1998, and here it is smoothed out. The blue-green line shows oil production. As we saw with the tuna, as the price rises, the production will be stimulated, and for a while, until about 2005, it was. Since then there has been a plateau, even though the price has continued to rise. Fatah Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency agrees with Sir David King. Murray, J. and D. King (2012). "Climate policy: Oil's tipping point has passed." Nature 481: 433-435. International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook. 2008 Butler, C. D. (2010). "The climate crisis, global health, and the medical response " World Medical Journal 56(2): 56-58.
- Wise TA. The Cost to Developing Countries of U.S. Corn Ethanol Expansion: Tufts University; 2012.
- #16: spelling error: contiguous (not "continguous") #22: Panic! (remove the explanation mark)#22: good governance needs regulation and taxes global subsidies for fossil fuel exceed that for renewables by a ratio of about 6 to 1. In 2011 these subsidies exceeded 500 billion dollars – about ten times the clean-up costs for Hurricane Sandy, which struck the U.S. prior to its 2012 Federal election.
- Before I am accused of complacency, I fear these dismal conditions could re-emerge. We know, especially in parts of Asia and Africa of many densely crowded human populations, already with malnourishment, especially in South Asia. I hope I am wrong, but I worry that our trajectory, with high birth rates, resilient poverty, resilient inequality, and worse crowding will interact with climate and other forms of adverse global environmental change and breed one or more megapandemics. But that will be far from our only problem.
- People searching through the debris of destroyed buildings in the aftermath of a strike by Syrian government forces, in the neighborhood of Jabal Bedro, Aleppo, Syria, Tuesday (AP Photo/Aleppo Media Center AMC) Feb 2013 Dear presenting author, Dear submitter, Please find below more information regarding your poster presentation: Abstract ID 3268 Title Is climate change as large a health threat as some have proposed? A new conceptual framework suggests it is. Presenting author Colin Butler Presentation format Poster Poster format The poster should not exceed the following dimensions: 90 cm width x 130 cm height (~world format). Session V-03: Poster Viewing III Time Thursday, 22 Aug, 13:00-14:00 PublicationYour abstract will be published in an online searchable program on the conference website. Furthermore all abstracts are published in an EHP Environmental Health Perspectives (http://www.ehponline.org/) online file, which will have a fully citable DOI number. Setting up your poster on siteThe poster exhibition will take place in hall 4.1.of the Congress Center Basel - there will be staff available to assist you with the installation of your poster. Around 450 posters will be on display during your poster viewing session. Please ensure, that your poster is installed before 10h00. The posters may be uninstalled starting at 15:30 (after the coffee break). For the poster viewing sessions on Tuesday (Aug 20) and Wednesday (Aug 21) we ask you to make sure, that your poster is uninstalled at the end of the conference day to free the poster space for the following poster viewing session the next day. Presenting your posterThe presenters of the posters should be available for questioning during the poster viewing sessions, which will take place from 13h00-14h00. Poster Award CompetitionIf you are a student poster presenter, you have the possiblity to register for the poster award competition for one of the three societies organizing this conference (ISIAQ/ ISES/ISEE). Click on the following link for more information: http://see13.organizers-congress.ch/english/Poster-award-comp.php Online RegistrationPlease ensure, that at least the presenting author is registered for the conference and the presenting author information we received is correct (see above). Posters without a registered presenting author may be cancelled.Online Registration and further information is available through our conference website: www.ehbasel13.org Once again we would like to thank your for your contribution to the conference. We are looking forward to welcoming you soon in Basel!For the organizing committeeThe Registration Office
- Carbon sink – climate change – SOD; urbanisation – cultural services Highly indirect .. CONTESTED
- Mossman, K. 2008. Profile of Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA, 105, 1783-1785.
- Conjuring a parachute At 7:30 pm on Wednesday 20 JuneWhere: At the Fenner Building, ANU Prophets of the impending collapse of civilisation are increasing in number and credibility, bolstered by accumulating evidence. Glib reassurances of hope, technological rescue and reminders of previous false prophets of doom no longer bring relief; new strategies are needed. These include eroding the social contract that permits actions that poison our collective future, analysis of denial, and exposure of oppression. We need to create “social vaccines”; new fables that can help thwart collapse. Principally, we need a vast social movement; with scores of overlapping approaches. These are just a few. Associate Professor Colin D Butler is an Australian Research Council Future Fellow. His topic concerns Australia’s social sustainability, in a global context of increasing resource scarcity. He is a medically trained epidemiologist, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University. In 2009 he was named one of “a hundred doctors for the planet”. -----Original Message----- From: Colin Butler Sent: Sunday, 5 February 2012 10:39 AM To: Jenny Wanless Subject: RE: Talk to NSF in June Jenny Perhaps I could talk on this general topic (communication, hostility, denial, partying - "shopping therapy" - eg Dubai tower, Qatar soccer, "small wins", a "social vaccine"). Below is a long abstract, (accepted) for a meeting on emergent risk to be held at Princeton in September. Below that is part of a recent grant application, of relevance. Attached is a recent editorial, also relevant, and a book review of McKibben's "Eaarth". Fundamentally, though, I think a grossly dysfunctional (even if understandable) human response to the proximity of a looming crisis makes the crisis inevitable; think of Europe pre WWII, the French Court pre revolution.. Important to keep some hope, though! Colin PS I welcome comments, including ones that are critical. *** Understanding cyclic vulnerability to reduce the risk of global collapse Colin D Butler Australian National University (Princeton emerging risk conference) Population vulnerability is cyclic, analogous to immunity. Following epidemics, surviving populations have sufficient antibodies to inhibit repeat infection until a sufficient number of immunologically vulnerability people accrue, due to waning immunity and the maturing of a new generation. Other forms of cyclic risk exist, driven by the waxing and waning of collective memory and behaviour and amplified by the rise and fall of social mechanisms. Three examples are global conflict, inequality and economic history. In the first, strong global social forces following World War II (WWII) led to a sufficiently vigorous social contract to inhibit very large-scale state violence, fortified by numerous institutions including the United Nations. Almost 70 years later, the social immunity generated by the two World Wars is still fairly powerful, though some of the institutions are weakening. The second example concerns inequality. Following the Depression and WWII sufficient social forces were liberated to reduce inequality of several forms; in the US memory of the gilded age faded, in the UK the National Health Service was born, and the global wave of decolonisation appeared unstoppable. However, gradually, many forms of inequality have reappeared, including in most formerly Communist nations. Economic history comprises the third example. Economic booms and busts have occurred since at least the Great Tulip frenzy (1634-37), and the cycle continues, not least because mainstream opinion in new generations asserts that the problem has been solved and a new generation of naive speculators and investors is seduced. Today, global civilisation itself is threatened. This risk may be emergent, as defined by this meeting, but is also ancient and recurrent. Numerous civilisations have collapsed in the past; what differs today is the global scale of this risk. This is plausible due not only to globalisation but also to the convergence of several forms of risk immuno-naïveté. This vulnerability has also been described as arising from the Cornucopian Enchantment, a period since roughly 1980, when most economists, decision makers and even the academy reached quasi-consensus that the problem of scarcity had been permanently solved. This hubris seemed rational to a new generation, trained and rewarded to think that economics and ingenuity would of themselves solve all major problems; such pride was fortified (for a time) by data regarding cheap food, cheap energy and declining global hunger. However, in the last decade, data have accumulated that show not just diminishing reserves (eg oil); but less contestable evidence such as rising prices (oil, food), rising unemployment and increased social resentment. Nevertheless, most policy makers remain wedded to the old-world thinking that has helped create these developing, interacting crises. What can be more important than to reduce the emergent risk of global civilisation collapse? Failure to lower this risk may lead to a dramatic change in global consciousness, following a period likely to make the Dark Ages seem desirable. Instead, it is vital to immunise a sufficient number of people who can then demand, develop and support the requisite radical new policies. These include acceptance that resources are limited, development of green economic systems that will price negative externalities, and revival of fairness of opportunity. **** part of the grant application: Project 5.3 Climate change and public health communication [Butler, Steffen] There is increasing evidence that both suppression ((C. D. Butler, 2000; Oreskes & Conway, 2010) and cognitive barriers (eg denial, bias to optimism) inhibit understanding of the risk of adverse global change, including to the climate (C. D. Butler, 2011; Diethelm & McKee, 2009; Ornstein & Ehrlich, 1989). These impede policy uptake. Improved understanding of collective social and cognitive factors that protect or endanger civilisation, and thus population health, is an urgent research need. For example, global abhorrence of further war followed World War II, leading to the birth of the United Nations and other peace-promoting institutions (C. D. Butler, 2000). Although weakening, their influence persists, as if the horror of the previous decades had produced a temporary global social vaccine. To prevent future global eco-social collapse, workers can devise social vaccines which balance dysfunctlonal arousal (Weick, 1984) (likely to trigger outcomes such as despair and indifference) and a placebo, which induces complacency. Methods: This project will review and synthesise the emerging literature in this field and also interview key informants (including CIs McMichael and Steffen) concerning perceived barriers which inhibit policy uptake. Outcomes will include conference presentations and an edited book. Benefits should include better uptake of difficult messages by populations and thus policy makers. -----Original Message----- From: Jenny Wanless [mailto:jennifer.wanless@gmail.com] Sent: Sun 05/02/2012 09:42 To: Colin Butler Subject: Re: Talk to NSF in June Indeed I remember that you spoke to us. And yes,we have made very little progress - or more probably gone backward since that time. More and more of the public are vociferously opposed to any idea that humans are inducing climate change or anything else harming the earth. It even seems that more deny evolution. It is very puzzling. At NSF we have a couple of groups who have been talking about this recently. Tony McMichael said he had had an overwhelmingly hostile reaction to an article he published recently. He said that scientists are realising that they are failing to communicate, and wondering where they have gone wrong. If you have any answers we would be delighted to hear them - but I am not hopeful. Our meetings are on the third Wednesday, so it would be 20th June, 7.30pm. Speakers have half an hour to an hour, but we do want some time for discussion, and we finish about 9pm. And I don't deserve any congratulations - Ian did it, not me. But I am pleased to have brought up a mathematician. Jenny On Sat, Feb 4, 2012 at 9:19 PM, Colin Butler <[email_address]>wrote: > ** > > Jenny > > Thanks .. and congratulations to you and your son.. > > I am planning to hear Nicole Foss on the 13th, and probably my topic > will be somewhat related; I will try to come up with a title and short > description after hearing her. Please do not hesitate to nag me if you > think I have overlooked advising you. > > Do you have a provisional date in June, and also a suggested time to speak? > > You may recall that I spoke to N&SF in early 1998 - we have more or > less continued with business as usual since that time; indeed you > might say since Limits to Growth appeared, 40 years ago. > > Best wishes > > > Colin > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Jenny Wanless > [mailto:jennifer.wanless@gmail.com<jennifer.wanless@gmail.com> > ] > Sent: Sat 04/02/2012 20:49 > To: Colin Butler > Subject: Re: Talk to NSF in April > > That would be great - it sounds very relevant. Please let me know in > another month or so whether that still suits you, and a title for yout > talk. > Tony told me it was the recent round, so I took his word for it. > Actually I am the proud mother of a Future Fellow - our younger son > Ian was awarded it in the recent round, but he is in Pure Maths - Combinatorics. > I'm very glad that you were awarded it in something to do with > sustainability - maybe the Government will take some notice of it. > JennyW > > On Sat, Feb 4, 2012 at 11:44 AM, Colin Butler <Colin.Butler@anu.edu.au > >wrote: > > > ** > > > > Jenny > > > > Yes, I do remember you - of course! > > > > The Future Fellowship was actually awarded in late 2010, not the > > most recent round. > > > > Its topic is "Health and sustainability: Australia in a global context." > > > > I have a pretty hectic time in the next three months, but perhaps a > > talk in June or so would be possible? > > > > Best wishes > > > > Colin > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Jenny Wanless > > [mailto:jennifer.wanless@gmail.com<jennifer.wanless@gmail.com> > <[email_address]> > > ] > > Sent: Sat 04/02/2012 11:31 > > To: Colin Butler > > Subject: Talk to NSF in April > > > > Dear Colin - remember me? I'm still secretary of the Nature and > > Society Forum. Last week I asked Tony Capon whether he would talk to > > NSF at our 18th April meeting. He suggested you instead. He told me > > that you > received > > a Future Fellowship in the recent ARC round of grants. > > Congratulations - that is very prestigious. What is your field? > > Anway, I am sure it is something that is relevant to our concerns It > > has been a long time since > we > > heard from you, so I do hope you will agree to talk to us some time > > even > if > > April does not suit you. > > Jenny Wanless > > > > > > Even before that World Health Day I heard a joke. Two people have fallen from a very tall building. One is an ecologist and the other is an economist. The ecologist is terrified, but the economist is supremely calm. Don’t worry, he says, “demand will create a parachute”. The person who told us that joke was vilified by many people; some of you will have heard of him. His name is Paul Ehrlich. If we go back to the vaccine analogy, it is very clear that Ehrlich alienated many people because his message was too painful. I personally think, on good days, that a parachute is possible. But we are not going to use that parachute unless we can see the ground, and unless we can anticipate the consequences of hitting it, and I think far too, many people, including policy makers, politicians and what we could call the consuming class of about 1 billion people are in denial. They cannot see the ground, though by now, perhaps a few hundred million can, and they are calling very hard for the ripcord to be pulled. -----
- Middle East Bodoland Arakan SSA etc
- http://www.yog2009.org/index.php?view=article&catid=46%3Agorillaspecies&id=70%3Amgspeciesinfo&option=com_content&Itemid=70
- Is "danger" plus "opportunity" equal "crisis" in Chinese?Is the Chinese symbol crisis made up of "danger" and "opportunity" as is often quoted? First of all, the Chinese symbol crisis is not one symbol but two. The symbols for crisis in Chinese are made up of these two words: They are pronounced wei1 ji1. wei means "danger; peril". And ji means "opportunity; crucial point" So literally wei plus ji equals "danger" plus "oportunity". However in reality, a crisis is still a dangerous state of affairs - regardless of the language. Crisis wei ji still means "a situation that has reached an extremely difficult or dangerous point". However, a dangerous situation can become an opportunity if wei ji becomes zhuan3 ji1.Zhuan ji means "turn for the better". Zhuan means "turn into". So zhuan ji means "turn into opportunity". In this sense, the Chinese symbol crisis can mean "opportunity" in a time of "danger". wei ji is commonly used as in wei1 ji1 gan3 meaning "sense of crisis" and wei1 ji1 si4 fu2 meaning "beset with danger; danger lurking in every direction".
- An inability to feed livestock and the high price of oats (the preferred food of horses!) led Karl Drais, a German inventor, to create a method of horseless transportation, the laufmaschine. Drais' "running machine" is a prototype for the modern bicycle that lacks pedals and relies on the rider to start off with a trot and then ride once sufficient speed is obtained.
- Figure SPM-12. | Cost trends of selected non-fossil energy technologies (US$2005/kW installed capacity) versus cumulative deployment (cumulative GW installed) Chapter 24 data have been updated with most recent cost trends (2010) available in the literature for PV Si Modules and US onshore wind turbines. Note that the summary illustrates comparative cost trends only and is not suitable for direct economic comparison of different energy technologies due to important differences between the economics of technology components (e.g. PV modules versus total systems installed), cost versus price data, and also differences in load factors across technologies (e.g., nuclear’s electricity output per kW installed is three to four times larger than that of PV or wind turbine systems). Source: Chapter 24 .
- One factor making the challenges more severe is the major participation in the global system of giant nations whose populations have not previously enjoyed the fossil energy abundance that brought Western countries and Japan to positions of affluence. Now they are poised to repeat the West’s energy ‘success’, and on an even greater scale. India alone, which recently suffered a gigantic blackout affecting 300 million people, is planning to bring 455 new coal plants on line. Worldwide more than 1200 plants with a total installed capacity of 1.4 million megawatts are planned [76], much of that in China, where electricity demand is expected to skyrocket. The resultant surge in greenhouse gases will interact with the increasing diversion of grain to livestock, stimulated by the desire for more meat in the diets of Indians, Chinese and others in a growing global middle class.
- Figure TS-26 | Historical experience with household electrification in select countries. Source: Chapter 19 .
- Figure TS-4 | Density of population lacking access to modern energy carriers in 2005. Colored areas show people per km 2 without access to electricity and those that use solid fuels for cooking, e.g., dark blue and red areas show where people do not have access to electricity and cook predominately using solid fuels. Source: Chapters 17 and 19 .
- global subsidies for fossil fuel exceed that for renewables by a ratio of about 6 to 1. In 2011 these subsidies exceeded 500 billion dollars – about ten times the clean-up costs for Hurricane Sandy, which struck the U.S. prior to its 2012 Federal election.