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CRICOS #00212K
Prof Colin Butler, ARC Future Fellow
Department of Public Health and Environment WHO August 27, 2013
Health...
CRICOS #00212K
“Efforts to prevent noncommunicable diseases go
against the business interests of powerful economic
operato...
CRICOS #00212K
Hung Liang-chi
(1744-1809)
Honda Toschiaki
(1744-1821)
Thomas Malthus
(1766-1834)
Population/resources: an ...
CRICOS #00212K
0-2012
4
Borlaug’s
warning Nobel
prize speech
President Reagan: population
problem “vastly exaggerated”
Le ...
CRICOS #00212K
5
Shtulman and Valcarcel, (2012) Scientific knowledge
suppresses but does not supplant earlier intuitions C...
CRICOS #00212K
1. Population growth rate
2. Population impact
6
CRICOS #00212K
Global population growth rate:
1950-2010
raw data: http://esa.un.org/unpp
7
peak = 2.1%
CRICOS #00212K
Global annual population
increments 1950-2010
8
raw data: http://esa.un.org/unpp
CRICOS #00212K
Orthodoxy: 1950s-early 1980s
High pop’n growth impedes economic
takeoff
9
CRICOS #00212K
Lyndon Johnson
“… less than five dollars invested in population
control is worth a hundred dollars invested...
CRICOS #00212K
Richard Nixon
“… countries such as Mozambique, Ethiopia, ..
need to maintain real economic growth rates of
...
CRICOS #00212K
“Revisionism”: early
1980s-1990s – now?
High population growth irrelevant –
leave it to “market forces”
12
CRICOS #00212K
The Cornucopian Enchantment
Simon: “the notion of something being
infinite is very much a matter of how we ...
CRICOS #00212K
Ronald Reagan
When questioned about population growth
the New York Times reported that he
considered the pr...
CRICOS #00212K
US policy at the Mexico City
population conference, 1984
American Population Association:
‘authors of draft...
CRICOS #00212K
US Nat. Acad. Sciences 2nd
enquiry into pop/envt: 1986
• Mostly economists
• Strong “Cornucopian” influence...
CRICOS #00212K
Demography and the Limits to Growth,
Paul Demeny,
Pop’n Development Review 1988
CRICOS #00212K
Larry Summers: Limits & Human
Carrying Capacity
“The idea that we should put limits
on growth, because of s...
CRICOS #00212K
The Human Titanic
19
CRICOS #00212K
Consequences for Family Planning
• Budget falls
US, Australia, globally
• 1994 Cairo conference: ignores ec...
CRICOS #00212K
“Revisionism”: revisited
2000s – now?
Kelley
UK Parliament
Royal Society
Gates Foundation
WHO?
21
CRICOS #00212K22
CRICOS #00212K23
CRICOS #00212K
The U.N. Population Fund (UNFPA) pointed out that almost 1.5
billion young men and women will enter the 20-...
CRICOS #00212K25
CRICOS #00212K
The Inside Story of the Papal Birth
Control Commission (1963-66)
26
CRICOS #00212K
27
“With 11 million people .. Rwanda is hoping to lower its high
fertility rate so that it can benefit from...
CRICOS #00212K
1. Population growth rate
2. Population impact
2828
28
CRICOS #00212K
29
Donella
Meadows
“Our Final
Century”
Where On
Earth Are We
Going?
CRICOS #00212K30
What about consumption?I = P.A.T
Impact = Population*Affluence*Technology
(Ehrlich and Holdren, 1971)
1994
CRICOS #00212K
(nominal prices)
31
Butler, 2013
CRICOS #00212K
Conclusions: High pop’n growth: cause and effect of
1. Poverty
2. Global inequality (“claste” system)
3. We...
CRICOS #00212K
Cumulative carbon
combustion
1848 1960 1987 – 1994 2008
2012
JS Mill –
steady state
economy
Our Common
Futu...
CRICOS #00212K
3434
“Social vaccine”
“Demand will create a parachute”
CRICOS #00212K
Toxicity
35
Placebo
Vaccine spectrum
CRICOS #00212K
Panic, despair,
or indifference
36
“Polyanna”
“Social vaccine” spectrum
CRICOS #00212K
37
“The dangerous impacts of climate change can only be
discussed in terms of nonlinear behavior.’’
Hans Jo...
CRICOS #00212K
He Had a dream
38
CRICOS #00212K
Édouard
Le Roy
Paul Crutzen
noösphere
(planetary thinking, sharing)
39
CRICOS #00212K40photo: Susanta Chakma
Near Mainpuri, Uttar Pradesh, 2009
Rights-based approaches to accelerate the
demogra...
CRICOS #00212K
41
Not just “natural” capital –
But interaction of natural, human, social, built, financial
And some would ...
CRICOS #00212K
42
CRICOS #00212K
The good news
is you’re too
big to let fail
Pope
Canberra
Times
29 Oct 08
The good
news is
you’re too
big t...
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Health, environment, population: connecting the dots

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My invited talk at W.H.O., Geneva August 2013, to joint environment,and reproductive health group

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Health, environment, population: connecting the dots

  1. 1. CRICOS #00212K Prof Colin Butler, ARC Future Fellow Department of Public Health and Environment WHO August 27, 2013 Health, environment, population
  2. 2. CRICOS #00212K “Efforts to prevent noncommunicable diseases go against the business interests of powerful economic operators... one of the biggest challenges facing health promotion. .. it is not just Big Tobacco anymore. Public health must also contend with Big Food, Big Soda, and Big Alcohol. All of these industries fear regulation, and protect themselves by using the same tactics.” Dr Margaret Chan Director-General Opening address, 8th Global Conference on Health Promotion, Helsinki, Finland, 10 June 2013 2 also – Big CARBON
  3. 3. CRICOS #00212K Hung Liang-chi (1744-1809) Honda Toschiaki (1744-1821) Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) Population/resources: an old debate 3
  4. 4. CRICOS #00212K 0-2012 4 Borlaug’s warning Nobel prize speech President Reagan: population problem “vastly exaggerated” Le Bras: “The problem has become a bit passé” (US Pop Mtg) 1st “check” 2nd “check”
  5. 5. CRICOS #00212K 5 Shtulman and Valcarcel, (2012) Scientific knowledge suppresses but does not supplant earlier intuitions Cognition
  6. 6. CRICOS #00212K 1. Population growth rate 2. Population impact 6
  7. 7. CRICOS #00212K Global population growth rate: 1950-2010 raw data: http://esa.un.org/unpp 7 peak = 2.1%
  8. 8. CRICOS #00212K Global annual population increments 1950-2010 8 raw data: http://esa.un.org/unpp
  9. 9. CRICOS #00212K Orthodoxy: 1950s-early 1980s High pop’n growth impedes economic takeoff 9
  10. 10. CRICOS #00212K Lyndon Johnson “… less than five dollars invested in population control is worth a hundred dollars invested in economic growth” 1968: shipped 1/5 US wheat harvest to India, on condition that India step up family planning programme 10
  11. 11. CRICOS #00212K Richard Nixon “… countries such as Mozambique, Ethiopia, .. need to maintain real economic growth rates of 3% just to keep their per capita incomes from dropping. Unchecked population growth will put them on an ever-accelerating treadmill that will outpace any potential economic performance" 11
  12. 12. CRICOS #00212K “Revisionism”: early 1980s-1990s – now? High population growth irrelevant – leave it to “market forces” 12
  13. 13. CRICOS #00212K The Cornucopian Enchantment Simon: “the notion of something being infinite is very much a matter of how we look at it..” (The Ultimate Resource) “From a high point some 10-15 years ago, intellectual concern about population has steadily waned to a position where it falls now somewhere between ocean mining and acid rain” (McNicoll and Nag, 1982) 13
  14. 14. CRICOS #00212K Ronald Reagan When questioned about population growth the New York Times reported that he considered the problem to have been “vastly exaggerated” (Finkle and Crane, 1985) 14
  15. 15. CRICOS #00212K US policy at the Mexico City population conference, 1984 American Population Association: ‘authors of draft report “either unaware of 50 years of demographic research, or deliberately ignored it”’ 15
  16. 16. CRICOS #00212K US Nat. Acad. Sciences 2nd enquiry into pop/envt: 1986 • Mostly economists • Strong “Cornucopian” influence (especially Simon) 16
  17. 17. CRICOS #00212K Demography and the Limits to Growth, Paul Demeny, Pop’n Development Review 1988
  18. 18. CRICOS #00212K Larry Summers: Limits & Human Carrying Capacity “The idea that we should put limits on growth, because of some natural limit, is a profound error” (cited in George and Sabelli, 1994 p109) 18
  19. 19. CRICOS #00212K The Human Titanic 19
  20. 20. CRICOS #00212K Consequences for Family Planning • Budget falls US, Australia, globally • 1994 Cairo conference: ignores economic argument • 2004 pop’n conference: abandoned • Environmental groups: largely ignore pop’n (including IPCC, Millennium Assessment, Greenpeace, Up in Smoke) 20
  21. 21. CRICOS #00212K “Revisionism”: revisited 2000s – now? Kelley UK Parliament Royal Society Gates Foundation WHO? 21
  22. 22. CRICOS #00212K22
  23. 23. CRICOS #00212K23
  24. 24. CRICOS #00212K The U.N. Population Fund (UNFPA) pointed out that almost 1.5 billion young men and women will enter the 20-to-24-years age cohort between 2000 and 2015, and if they don't find jobs "they will fuel political instability." 24
  25. 25. CRICOS #00212K25
  26. 26. CRICOS #00212K The Inside Story of the Papal Birth Control Commission (1963-66) 26
  27. 27. CRICOS #00212K 27 “With 11 million people .. Rwanda is hoping to lower its high fertility rate so that it can benefit from future economic growth” Ruxin, J. & Habinshuti, A. 2011. Crowd control in Rwanda. Nature, 474, 572-573.
  28. 28. CRICOS #00212K 1. Population growth rate 2. Population impact 2828 28
  29. 29. CRICOS #00212K 29 Donella Meadows “Our Final Century” Where On Earth Are We Going?
  30. 30. CRICOS #00212K30 What about consumption?I = P.A.T Impact = Population*Affluence*Technology (Ehrlich and Holdren, 1971) 1994
  31. 31. CRICOS #00212K (nominal prices) 31 Butler, 2013
  32. 32. CRICOS #00212K Conclusions: High pop’n growth: cause and effect of 1. Poverty 2. Global inequality (“claste” system) 3. We who care about global health need to challenge the “cornucopian enchantment” fostered by big Capital, the woolly Left, some in the Church, and collusive academia 32
  33. 33. CRICOS #00212K Cumulative carbon combustion 1848 1960 1987 – 1994 2008 2012 JS Mill – steady state economy Our Common Future, Rio conference Rio+20 now? CD Butler ANU 33 K Boulding Limits to Growth Stockholm, Bucharest confs, N Borlaug’s warning Cairo pop’n conference “Cornucopian enchantment” Adapted from Meinshausen et al (2011) Global sense of risk
  34. 34. CRICOS #00212K 3434 “Social vaccine” “Demand will create a parachute”
  35. 35. CRICOS #00212K Toxicity 35 Placebo Vaccine spectrum
  36. 36. CRICOS #00212K Panic, despair, or indifference 36 “Polyanna” “Social vaccine” spectrum
  37. 37. CRICOS #00212K 37 “The dangerous impacts of climate change can only be discussed in terms of nonlinear behavior.’’ Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
  38. 38. CRICOS #00212K He Had a dream 38
  39. 39. CRICOS #00212K Édouard Le Roy Paul Crutzen noösphere (planetary thinking, sharing) 39
  40. 40. CRICOS #00212K40photo: Susanta Chakma Near Mainpuri, Uttar Pradesh, 2009 Rights-based approaches to accelerate the demographic transition
  41. 41. CRICOS #00212K 41 Not just “natural” capital – But interaction of natural, human, social, built, financial And some would say moral
  42. 42. CRICOS #00212K 42
  43. 43. CRICOS #00212K The good news is you’re too big to let fail Pope Canberra Times 29 Oct 08 The good news is you’re too big to let fail The bad news is it’s hard to get a government bailout until your stocks completely crash 43

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