2. Cross Platform : measuring granular
media impact to drive sales growth
CIJU NAIR
VP Analytic Consulting
Millward Brown
@cijutr
SATYA MENON
Chief Scientist
Millward Brown
@satya_menon

3. Marketers live in the world where…
MARKET DIVERSITY
MEDIA FRAGMENTATION
MULTIPLE BRANDS & VARIANTS
SALES vs. BRAND BUILDING

4. How do we manage these most efficiently for best business returns ?
Spend
on
Variant A
We need
to build
the Brand
Invest
in TV vs
Digital
Market X is
biggest, needs
most
investment
How does
Variant B
benefit from
A

5. Modeling Approaches
TOP DOWN APPROACH
• Nested Dynamic Bayesian Models
• Vector Auto Regressive Models
BOTTOM UP APPROACH
• Agent Based Modeling
MEDIA SILOED APPROACH
• Digital Attribution Modeling

6. Top Down Approach Bottom Up Approach
Historical analysis with granularity
teased out of the top-down model
Consumer level framework of how
consumers make purchase
decisions based on consumer
behavior
Sales
Media
Trade
Activity
Sampling
TV Radio Digital
Input Media Consumption,
U&A data, etc.
Defining Demographics
# of hours each media is
consumed + other
information
# of hours each media is
consumed + other
information
Targeting
based on
Media
/Marketing
Activity
Sales Sales
Sales Prediction Agent based Targeting
Contributiondueto-

7. Going from Macro optimization …..

8. …to Micro Optimization
Both Macro and Micro perspectives are critical for
investment allocation decisions!

9. Trade Activity
8.8%
Owned
Media
2.4%
Samplin
g
3.7%
Events &
Sponsorship
11.9%
Competitor
Trade**
-4.5%
Collegiate
Marketing
1.7%
Paid Media
8.0%
Web
TV
1.0%
Radio
1.8%
Online
Display
1.4%
Online
Social
0.4%
OO
H
0.1
%
Cinem
a
1.2%
TPR
-0.2%
Distribution
-4.3%
On-
Premise
4.1%
Faceboo
k
1.4%
Organic
Search
2.6%
Twitter
0.3%
Total Folder
4.4%
TPR
1.8%
Total
Display
2.6%
Culture
2.3%
Sports
2.1%
Brand
Buildin
g
1.4%
Opinio
n
Leader
s 1.6%
Internatio
nal Series
2.1%
YouTu
be
1.5%
RB.COM
0.9%
WORB
0.5%
MOTO
0.7% Athlet
es
0.9%
F1
0.7%
Flanker
0.1%
Launches
.4%
Monster /
Burn
-1.1%
Red Bull
Launche
s
0.7%
Incremental
Sales
36%
Base Sales
64%
Earned
Media
4.3%
Carto
on
1.5%
Most analysis tells us the ‘Total contributions’
from a particular Marketing element

10. But ‘Line
Managers’
need more
granularity
across media
types….
WHAT
PROGRAM? WHAT
CREATIVE?
WHAT
COPY
LENGTH?
WHAT
NETWORK?
WHAT
DAY
PART?
WHAT
FORMAT?
BUDGET FOR
TV ADVERTISING
$10MILLION

11. DYNAMIC BAYESIAN
MODELS
CAPTURES IMPACT WITH A GOOD
DEGREE OF SENSITIVITY
HYPERCUBE
CASCADES THE CONTRIBUTIONS TO
MORE GRANULAR MARKETING
ACTIVITY
The Idea….
Sales
impact
measured
at weekly
level
Uses activity levels to
inform on performance
at a granular level
Medium
Low High

12. PROMOTION
DISPLAY
3rd PARTY
SAMPLING
1-1
SAMPLING
COPY
LENGTH
DAY PART
Contribution due
to TV Advertising
20%
Contribution due to
Sampling
10%
Hypercube approach allows you to slice the data
within each element of marketing mix SAMPLING
TRADE ACTIVITY
TV ADVERTISING

13. Granular inputs provide more actionable insights
COPY
LENGTH
PROGRAM
DAY PART
CREATIVE
STYLE
NETWORK
FORMAT
Decisions on copy length
@ what day part
format + program +
network
creative style +
program
copy length + format
+ day part +
network

14. 15s 30s 60s
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
.
.
.
.Week N
COPY LENGTH

15. MORNING NOON EVENING
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
.
.
.
.Week N
DAY PART

16. VOICE
DANCING WITH
STARS
AMERICAN
IDOL
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
.
.
.
.Week N
GAME OF
THRONES
SATURDAY
NIGHT LIVE
PROGRAM

17. THEMATIC FUNCTIONAL PROMOTIONAL
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
.
.
.
.
Week N
CREATIVE

18. ABC CBS NBC
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
.
.
.
.Week N
NATG
NETWORK

19. COMPARATIVE TESTIMONIAL CELEBRITY
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
.
.
.
.Week N
FORMAT

20. BUDGET FOR TV
ADVERTISING
$10MILLION

21. Why does this work?
• Holistic approach that allows to compare ROIs of all marketing
activity at granular level for better decisions
• More tractability and managerial relevance than other approaches
that requires many models, constraints and reconciliation
• Dynamic weekly coefficients for all marketing drivers
• Annual activity summaries could be flawed, granular
imputations more accurate
Key Benefits

22. Helps get more actionable insights

23. Display Promotion Feature FSI Circular e-circular
Events
Sampling
Trade Activity
TV
Digital
Enables MMM to now allocate from Macro
to Micro level
Sports Culture Movies Brand Building Sponsorship
Channel
1
Channel
2Campaign 1 60s 30sCampaign 2
Current Mix
Optimized Mix
Google BingSearch Display TestMobile
Offseason Season3rd party National Local1-1