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20210414 三接與藻礁保育、能源轉型關係〈對焦會議〉 下午場
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20210414 Energy Transition Panel_Chuang Bin-chieh
1.
台灣減煤路徑與接收站整體規 劃: 觀塘儲槽+浮動式接收站 (FSRU) (工程18個月) (II) 莊秉潔 環境工程系教授 2021‐4‐14 台大霖澤館 1301 會議室, 台北 1
2.
2 1. FSRU/LNG 2. FSRU 3. FSRU 4. FSRU 2 km 半徑 10 m/s
3.
Double Berth Jetty (雙泊位碼頭) 3 https://www.rivieramm.com/news‐content‐hub/news‐content‐hub/teekay‐lng‐storage‐vessel‐ ready‐for‐working‐life‐in‐bahrain‐23128 CGI rendering of the Bahrain LNG receiving terminal, at an offshore location close to Khalifa Bin Sa The Excelerate Energy Gateway (3:23) https://excelerateenergy.com/excelerate‐energy‐gateway/
4.
4
5.
10m風速 >12 m/s
10m風速 >15 m/s 統計時間:2020年4月1日~2021年3月28日 最大連續天數 最大連續天數發生時間 最大連續天數 最大連續天數發生時間 台北港 4 2020-12-01 ~ 2020-12-04 0 林口港 5 2020-12-01 ~ 2020-12-05 0 觀塘港 27 2020-10-05 ~ 2020-10-31 11 2020-11-28 ~ 2020-12-08 台中港 12 2020-11-27 ~ 2020-12-08 5 2020-12-02 ~ 2020-12-06 麥寮港 13 2020-11-27 ~ 2020-12-09 4 2020-11-08 ~ 2020-11-11 2020-12-02 ~ 2020-12-05 2021-01-06 ~ 2021-01-09 興達港 0 0 永安港 0 0 台北港與林口港 4 2020-12-01 ~ 2020-12-04 0 觀塘港、台中港與麥寮港 12 2020-11-27 ~ 2020-12-08 4 2020-12-02 ~ 2020-12-05 興達港與永安港 0 0 台北港、林口港、觀塘港、台中港、麥寮港、 興達港與永安港 0 0 我們來評估連續天數: 我們的天然氣安全容量只有7 天。
6.
2020‐11‐30 ~ 12‐17 大潭電廠也 因此降載了18天 這狀況幾乎每年都發生,去年(2020)在11/30‐12/17 大潭電廠也因此降載了 18天,幸好台中燃煤機組升載,免除了限電危機。 6
7.
MSM 10m風速 ≥12
m/s 統計時間:2020年4月1日~2021年3月31日 最大連續天數 最大連續天數發生時間 連續天數平均風速(m/s) 台北港 4 2020‐12‐01 ~ 2020‐12‐04 13.018 林口港 5 2020‐12‐01 ~ 2020‐12‐05 13.424 觀塘港 27 2020‐10‐05 ~ 2020‐10‐31 14.408 觀塘港(觀測站) 27 2020‐10‐05 ~ 2020‐10‐31 13.555 台中港 12 2020‐11‐27 ~ 2020‐12‐08 15.873 麥寮港 13 2020‐11‐27 ~ 2020‐12‐09 15.381 興達港 0 永安港 0 台北港與林口港 4 2020‐12‐01 ~ 2020‐12‐04 13.339 觀塘港、台中港與麥寮港 12 2020‐11‐27 ~ 2020‐12‐08 15.732 興達港與永安港 0 台北港、林口港、觀塘港、台中港、麥寮港、 興達港與永安港 0 WRF‐CMAQ 10m風速 ≥12m/s 統計時間:2020年1月1日~2020年12月31日 最大連續天數 最大連續天數發生時間 連續天數平均風速(m/s) 台北港 2 2020‐12‐02 ~ 2020‐12‐03 12.681 林口港 4 2020‐10‐15 ~ 2020‐10‐18 12.734 觀塘港 14 2020‐10‐12 ~ 2020‐10‐25 13.487 觀塘港(觀測站) 14 2020‐10‐12 ~ 2020‐10‐25 13.704 台中港 11 2020‐11‐28 ~ 2020‐12‐08 15.864 麥寮港 11 2020‐11‐28 ~ 2020‐12‐08 14.993 興達港 0 永安港 0 台北港與林口港 2 2020‐12‐02 ~ 2020‐12‐03 12.957 觀塘港、台中港與麥寮港 11 2020‐11‐28 ~ 2020‐12‐08 14.959 興達港與永安港 0 台北港、林口港、觀塘港、台中港、麥寮港、 興達港與永安港 0
8.
觀塘港評估點位 觀塘港測站點位 觀塘港評估點位
9.
9
10.
10 校正資料來源: 海洋風力發電股份有限公司簡明月報-109 年11-12月 https://formosa1windpower.com/operationa l‐documents‐a/ 額定風速=13 m/s
11.
台中港 梧棲氣象站
12.
12
13.
真的要好好想替代方案 (建議更深入探討 觀塘之海象) • 上面分析,觀塘連續風速> 12 m/s 高達27 天,而> 15 m/s 達11天。 遠超過安全容量7天。 •
更糟的是同時觀塘、台中及麥寮連續風速> 12 m/s 達12 天。亦超 過安全容量7天。 • 這表示現在及未來觀塘、台中及麥寮為氣源的燃氣機組,工業鍋 爐及家庭瓦斯極可能同時斷氣。 13
14.
14 2020/11/27‐12/7 台北港與觀塘港的資料,的確這段期間台北港風約 小了3‐4m/s,也就是這段時間台北港天然氣船可以進來
15.
15 https://www.epd.gov.hk/eia/register/profile/latest/esb292/esb 292.pdf 停靠 脫離 操作
16.
16 防風堤擋浪、不 擋風
17.
17
18.
替代方案與時程: 1. 觀塘儲槽+ 雙泊位碼頭+ FSRU+
2‐5 km 海管。可能不需環評,有 現船可以租。 應二年可以起來 (工程18個月)。(夏天或風浪小時 可用) 2. 雙泊位碼頭+FSRU+台北港+40 km 海管: 2 年(工程18個月) 。(全 年可用) 3. 雙泊位碼頭+FSRU+林口港+3‐20 km 海管: 2 年(工程18個月) 。 (全年可用、但大風浪時需駛離) (可能有機場管制的問題) 4. 雙泊位碼頭+ FSRU+林口港+20 km 海管+海堤: 5年。 5. 林口港+20 km 海管+海堤+陸地儲槽: 11年。 6. 台北港+40 km 海管+陸地儲槽+天然氣機組: 11年。 18
19.
結論與建議: 1. 優先建置FSRU無悔替代方案。 2. 建議要更深入探討觀塘港頭之海象,了解觀塘建堤防在冬季之 有效性。 3.
而觀塘風大之時間常與台中港及麥寮港同,在2020‐11‐27 ~ 2020‐12‐08連續12天,三港同時風速>12 m/s。天然氣船同時進 不了港,三接收站7天後同時斷氣。這將引起雲林以北全部限電。 4. 如此風速 >12 m/s之連續日數可以從觀塘、台中及麥寮港三港同 時超過的12日降至林口港的5日(台北港的4日),能源才能安全。 19
20.
20
21.
21
22.
22 http://isohe.ihmt.gov.tw/docklands/Datafile/pdf/B1080430.pdf
23.
23
24.
並不包 括儲槽 24
25.
25 不建防波堤: 觀塘夏天仍 然可以使用
26.
27.
校正資料來源: 政府資料開放平台-台灣電力公司_風機發電量及發電時數統計表 https://data.gov.tw/dataset/29961 校正資料來源: 海洋風力發電股份有限公司簡明月報-109年11-12月 https://formosa1windpower.com/operational‐documents‐a/ 額定風速=13 m/s 額定風速=16 m/s
28.
28 https://oceanapi.cwb.gov.tw/restapi/v2/static/station/station_info.html
29.
觀塘港評估點位 觀塘港測站點位 觀塘港測站點位
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