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20210414 Ecology Panel_Hsu Hao-chieh
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20210414 三接與藻礁保育、能源轉型關係〈對焦會議〉 上午場
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20210414 Ecology Panel_Hsu Hao-chieh
1.
環境影響評估當中的 生態調查與資料分析 許皓捷 國立臺南大學 生態暨環境資源學系
2.
保育是合理利用自然資源 怎樣才算合理,牽涉: 1. 客觀事實 2. 價值判斷
3.
議題盤點與設定 • 資源普查 ð 物種名錄
(nominal scale) ð 數量等級 (ordinal scale; 稀有、普遍、極普遍…) • 群聚結構 物種及相對豐富度 (ratio scale) • 特定物種的族群量 • … 需要哪些客觀事實?
4.
研究目標決定母體範圍與調查方法 • 建立物種名錄 ð 多方蒐集資訊
(包括訪談),不用太在乎統計抽樣 • 測量種類多樣性 ð 物種名錄與種類多樣性的目標不同,是不一樣的兩件事情 ð 如果不具母體代表性,就算校 正努力量,也僅能代表該樣站 (或樣本) (亦即 alpha diversity; 但是我們需要的資訊卻是 gamma diversity) https://ecointelligent.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/di versity-perspectives6484617583604949733.jpeg
5.
研究目標決定母體範圍與調查方法 • 群聚結構及物種的族群量 ð 正視空間及時間變異的現象 ð
釐清並清楚界定母體範圍 ð 樣本必須能代表母體 ð 研究結果只能推估所界定的母體之介量 母體不同,就會雞同鴨講
6.
研究目標決定母體範圍與調查方法 • 族群密度估算應遵循統計學原理 • 因為有空間及時間變異,採樣一定要重複,但要避免偽重複 (pseudoreplication)
7.
ü 推論必須基於合理假設 ü 應符合統計學基本概念 ü
結果只能用於推論母體
8.
怎樣抽樣才算隨機? • 一定要事先選定樣點 ð 到了現場,再宣稱隨機選取者,一定會受到潛意識影響 ð
隨機選取樣點的方法要寫進報告中,避免爭議 • 如果樣本數太少,隨機抽樣就沒有意義
9.
這個地方的生態好不好? • 生態學家真的不會這樣問 • "好不好"
是價值判斷 • 要問的是客觀事實 (例如:種類多樣性多高?) • 沙漠的生物多樣性相對較低,沙漠的生態好不好? ð 種類多樣性高者,就比較好?
10.
除了種類多樣性,還有哪些生態學面向? Lomolino (Progress in
Physical Geography, 2001: 1-21) • 物種—面積關係
11.
• 群聚結構是否具獨特性 (不可替代)? 嘉義布袋鹽田 2017
– 2018冬季鳥類群聚相似性 除了種類多樣性,還有哪些生態學面向?
12.
生態學家的角色 • 提供充分且客觀的事實 • 做出能協助各界理性價值判斷的科學分析 ð
能忍受多少物種損失,則是價值判斷,非生態學家所能獨斷
13.
確認議題,才能好好討論 • 7000年藻礁,討論議題是地質 或地景保育 • 近年從沙埋露出的藻礁生態系, 討論議題是生態保育
14.
沙埋歷史的生態意義 • 生態學家討論目前看到的生態樣貌 (pattern),但也重視形成現況的 過程
(process) 與機制 (mechanism) (from 觀塘工業區環評報告書環差分析報告) • 近期從沙埋露出,提供的科學線索: ü 演替 (ecological succession) ü 回復力 (ecological resilience) ð 生態系統可以承受工程意外的 能力 ü 出現的物種,其種源與族群播遷 ð 柴山多杯孔珊瑚存在間斷分布? 還是根本沒弄清楚分布範圍?
15.
如何消彌歧見? • 正確討論議題 • 放下成見,以科學態度檢視雙方各自呈現的客觀事實 ü
正視母體差異 (空間、時間、採樣方法所能代表的母體) ü 釐清研究方法不同可能產生的解讀差異 • 尋求客觀第三者做整合性分析 ð 具生態學背景的統計學家是理想人選
16.
感謝聆聽,歡迎指教
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